Re: Gota's Era

[sereneTop contributor]

I would love to see only YK posting here and others to comment on that how it would effect CSe in general and specific shares. There are so many threads that others can post / even they can start their own thread.

[Ethical TraderTop contributor]

This video talks about both positive and issues involved with in Gotas era. The title is very wide & It can have any thing in Gota's era.  

Please explain if this is related to yellow knife's topic?

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

General sentiment will have an effect on the CSE too eventually.
That is the truth and if someone looks at the bigger picture, then he or she will understand the logic.
But, finally, it's your prerogative to decide what stays and what goes.
Yet, no rememdy was found for Flag wavers deliema.  
My last post on this issue.

සම හරක් පැතූ වෙනස සිදුවෙමින් පවතී.  

Please explain if this is related to yellow knife's topic?

[Ethical TraderTop contributor]

When some people misuse red batten others also misuse green batten.

Positive + rep given to people going out of topic even after many requests and reminders. How is that correct?

[The Invisible]

Positive + rep given to people going out of topic even after many requests and reminders. How is that correct?

Dear Admin,

My humble request is to remove the rep functionality completely. That will solve at least this part of the total issue.

[BackstageTop contributor]

Posters seem to have not read YK's explanation on the objectives of thread or not understood what he has written and are posting general critiques of Gota administration.

Re +- issue. Admin maybe you should do a small survey of the seniors view on the issue. I suspect they overwhelmingly would support the removal of the buttons.

[malanp]

Posters seem to have not read YK's explanation on the objectives of thread or not understood what he has written and are posting general critiques of Gota administration.

Re +- issue. Admin maybe you should do a small survey of the seniors view on the issue. I suspect they overwhelmingly would support the removal of the buttons.

Objective of the thread is self explanatory,, Gota's Era.. what affact CSE during Gota's 5 years is the topic,  and people have the freedom to post anything which affect the CSE during this 5 year period.

matters affecting CSE or any investment is Political, economical, legal Technological and Social..so anything related to above 5 areas can be posted.

[AdminAdmin]

Posters seem to have not read YK's explanation on the objectives of thread or not understood what he has written and are posting general critiques of Gota administration.

Re +- issue. Admin maybe you should do a small survey of the seniors view on the issue. I suspect they overwhelmingly would support the removal of the buttons.

For Admin it is amusing to see adults complaining of any negative comment and adults who can't stick to topic. Maybe I am a child and need to grow up.

[sereneTop contributor]

Posters seem to have not read YK's explanation on the objectives of thread or not understood what he has written and are posting general critiques of Gota administration.

Re +- issue. Admin maybe you should do a small survey of the seniors view on the issue. I suspect they overwhelmingly would support the removal of the buttons.

For Admin it is amusing to see adults complaining of any negative comment and adults who can't stick to topic. Maybe I am a child and need to grow up.

No comments.

[sereneTop contributor]

If people do have such temptation to interfere YK's thread I suggest YK to start new thread with different name.

[Ethical TraderTop contributor]

Very good idea.

If people do have such temptation to interfere YK's thread I suggest YK to start new thread with different name.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanks ..dear friends, let me just continue while enjoying the comments in the thread.







Two days we have witnessed volumes above 2 Billion and we can assign direct causes for that.

1. Gota Assuming duties
2. Tax Bonanza declaration

Yes, the upward trends are caused by reasons.

The dullness in the market is lack of activities affecting to CSE created in the Political Arena.

Having a beautiful city with utmost cleanliness and painted walls may be good but is not boosting the market sentiment.

Instead we want to see concrete actions from GOTA like creating an EXIM bank which is state owned and coming up with new concepts like Re discounting. Of course  you have to get a Bill passed in Parliament. Yet you can start up the discussion. Such positive economic activities should be taken now.

18-Nov-19	6,129.56	Gota Won
19-Nov-19	6,142.76	Gota Assume Duties
20-Nov-19	6,138.59
21-Nov-19	6,138.33
22-Nov-19	6,119.27
25-Nov-19	6,083.74
26-Nov-19	6,094.85
27-Nov-19	6,118.87
28-Nov-19	6,201.12	Tax Boanza
29-Nov-19	6,211.97	Prez Indian Visit
2-Dec-19	6,215.23
3-Dec-19	6,214.99	Swiss Embassy on White Van
4-Dec-19	6,206.40	No Swiss Visa for SL
5-Dec-19	6,160.88
6-Dec-19	6,149.57
9-Dec-19	6,103.63	Swiss Embasssy Lady to CID
10-Dec-19	6,060.20
12-Dec-19	6,099.66

[puliyanamTop contributor]

Market is finding 6100 bar difficult to cross and to continue the upward journey. Multiple reasons may be.

Executive power does not have legislative support yet. So its like a government by common opposition (yep joint opposition)

Not the usual "horu" back in power situation. So there is a chance to make things work better for the country. But shrewd business heads are "waiting" to see how things unroll. Waiting means market is in sideways mode

Corporate earnings will have to improve to push the market. THat may take a little while too

Fiscal side may worry some economist too as more election gimmick than serious policy decisions

Well that is one way of explaining why the 6120 seems difficult to cross currently

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

This is the first Economic Positive news we got after Gota obtaining power. However the market will be less sensitive on these kind of concepts. Even opening and launching of such will not create sudden upward trends. But for careful long term investors these developments are worthier than the many issues discussed by 

PressReader - New national development bank in the offing

https://www.pressreader.com › sri-lanka › daily-mirror-sri-lanka

2 hours ago - The government will establish a new national development bank under its emergency relief package to provide concessionary rate loans to encourage identified sectors ranging from import-export trade, construction, small and medium enterprises (SMES) and agriculture

It seems both Development banking as well as EXIM Banking will be covered by this Bank. 

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[puliyanamTop contributor]

This is the first Economic Positive news we got after Gota obtaining power. However the market will be less sensitive on these kind of concepts. Even opening and launching of such will not create sudden upward trends. But for careful long term investors these developments are worthier than the many issues discussed by 

PressReader - New national development bank in the offing

https://www.pressreader.com › sri-lanka › daily-mirror-sri-lanka

2 hours ago - The government will establish a new national development bank under its emergency relief package to provide concessionary rate loans to encourage identified sectors ranging from import-export trade, construction, small and medium enterprises (SMES) and agriculture

It seems both Development banking as well as EXIM Banking will be covered by this Bank. 

****************************************************************

YK, Despite the fact that this is planned with best of intentions this could be a risky move in my opinion. In economics, perhaps the best benefit of a government bank is "counter cyclical lending". THis needs muscles from the bank. The government does not have that financial muscle as it has a very weak fiscal side.

Pro market activism is better than state controlled focus

Of course this could be a long debate

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Yes Pulli., Yet that is the debate needed than other debates appearing in this thread.

Today's article of Mirror Business of above caption discuss the same. 

Classical market economists argue that subsidized credit destabilize the economy by stoking inflation and through currency collapse as this type of credit needs to be accommodated through money printing. 

However, the counter argument is that when the market fails to provide  support to some of the key sectors , targeted support t these sectors by the government through tax concessions, concessional credit and other structural reforms. 

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Pulli, I appreciate your constructive contribution to this thread, and you need not to agree with me or my thinking,.

[puliyanamTop contributor]

Yes Pulli., Yet that is the debate needed than other debates appearing in this thread.

Today's article of Mirror Business of above caption discuss the same. 

Classical market economists argue that subsidized credit destabilize the economy by stoking inflation and through currency collapse as this type of credit needs to be accommodated through money printing. 

However, the counter argument is that when the market fails to provide  support to some of the key sectors , targeted support t these sectors by the government through tax concessions, concessional credit and other structural reforms. 

*************************************

Pulli, I appreciate your constructive contribution to this thread, and you need not to agree with me or my thinking,.

Agree 100%. Yep indeed. Many of us who have been in these forum long enough understand we cannot talk any nonsense and get away. its the newones out of nowhere come and be funny.

We may not agree politically, but can still have gentlemen's conversation. Keep up the good work YK.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

From whom should we learn and quote in this thread. Economists are divided on each issue. We tend to select the economist who match the thinking we have already created.

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Ha-Joon Chang is a South Korean institutional economist, specialising in development economics. Currently a reader in the Political Economy of Development at the University of Cambridge

These kind of economic thinkers show the distance between YP era and Gota's era.  I will just quote headings of 50 economic Classics. 


1. Markets arent free or natural
2. Free market policies do not make poor countries rich
3.Regulation protect us from ourselves
4 Governments knows better than Business

He often refers South Korea

From 1970s to 1990s the Korean government pushed private sector firms into new industries, with the incentive of high tariffs or subsidize or threat to withdraws loans from state-owned banks. The LT  group wanted to enter the textiles business, but the government forced it to  make electric cables instead: this intervention  laid the foundation of a global electronic business. 

General Park Chung Hee , Korea's Dictator, threatened the Hyundai company  with bankruptcy if it did not enter the shipbuilding industry. 

According to free market theory nothing of these should not have happened. 

[puliyanamTop contributor]

Not so sure economics is common sense, if it is true we lack a lot of common sense (not so common) and should learn it

First step, we need to establish rationale:
Do we need a new bank owned by government to fund import-exports, smes agriculture and construction? Ahm really? Why is that? Rationale? Aren't the current banks such as private banks not engaged in these areas? Arent there public banks already? Why cant they take steps to address any specific shortcomings in these areas?

So lets discuss what our problems related to current banking set up are in this phase.

We can discuss the relevant economic concepts, as we identify the problems.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

So lets discuss what our problems related to current banking set up are in this phase.

Now I am again facing a problem with copying and pasting charts here. So lets look at following banks. 

Ok... till I find again how to paste charts from excel let's look at following.

What is the purpose of the Export-Import Bank?

Answer: The Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) of the United Stateswas founded as anindependent government agency to facilitate and finance U.S. export trade. Eximbank’spurpose is to provide financing in situations where private financial institutions are unable orunwilling because:

 i) the loan maturity was too long;

 ii) the amount of the loan was too large;

 iii)the loan risk was too great; and,

 iv) where the importing firm had difficulty obtaining hardcurrency for payment. To meet its objectives, Eximbank provides service through three types of programs: direct loans to foreign borrowers, loan guarantees, and credit insurance

[puliyanamTop contributor]

So lets discuss what our problems related to current banking set up are in this phase.

Now I am again facing a problem with copying and pasting charts here. So lets look at following banks. 

Ok... till I find again how to paste charts from excel let's look at following.

What is the purpose of the Export-Import Bank?

Answer: The Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) of the United Stateswas founded as anindependent government agency to facilitate and finance U.S. export trade. Eximbank’spurpose is to provide financing in situations where private financial institutions are unable orunwilling because:

 i) the loan maturity was too long;

 ii) the amount of the loan was too large;

 iii)the loan risk was too great; and,

 iv) where the importing firm had difficulty obtaining hardcurrency for payment. To meet its objectives, Eximbank provides service through three types of programs: direct loans to foreign borrowers, loan guarantees, and credit insurance

I dont see much rationale in the items above related to Sri Lanka? Do you have any statistics? Aren't the existing banks banks already facilitating exports? Any problems in import financing? Nothing of substance related to SL. Both public and private banks are doing enough. And if you think a new bank that can take a risk more that BOC/ PB/ COMB and HNB etc it has to be very large bank. What kind of capital is required? What kind of demand is required for imports and exports?

Secondly, what is that to do with construction? How about agriculture and SME? What is the rationale?

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Now this is form PABC




This is from Commercial Bank



Now these banks prefer to offer more consumption loans than loans towards development. Commercial bank PLC is somewhat different from other Commercial Banks of Sri Lanka.


These were the exposure of SL Banks on Gold Pawning in 2011



These banks will help to remain in status quo than driving the economy forward.

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South Koreans started EXIM Bank as they understood its a necessity to have such a dedicated bank.

The bank was first established in 1976.^[1] Its primary purpose is to support South Korea's export-led economy by providing loans, financing mega projects and thereby facilitating economic cooperation with other countries.^[

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Thanks Pulli , I think lets keep a long pause  on EXIM Bank matter and lets see wether GOTA Regime really do it.. and if so what benefits we get out of it.

[puliyanamTop contributor]

This analysis incorrect so is the conclusion that " these banks prefer to offer more consumption loans than loans towards development. " Too lame and lacking any proof.

Let me suggest something. If we want to understand which sectors are mainly funded by the Banks, we need to look at aggregate information than individual bank information. The reason is, as in the above case, we will miss the wood for the trees.

Actually consumption loans are 18% of the total loans of the banking sector. Majority of the balance 70%+ have been given to the businesses.

Let me give one more tip. Construction has one of the highest level of lending by the banks per sector currently with above average NPA. Do we need another bank to fund construction?

[puliyanamTop contributor]

Thanks Pulli , I think lets keep a long pause on EXIM Bank matter and lets see wether GOTA Regime really do it.. and if so what benefits we get out of it.

Sure lets wait

[Rajapaksap]

So lets discuss what our problems related to current banking set up are in this phase.

Now I am again facing a problem with copying and pasting charts here. So lets look at following banks. 

Ok... till I find again how to paste charts from excel let's look at following.

What is the purpose of the Export-Import Bank?

Answer: The Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) of the United Stateswas founded as anindependent government agency to facilitate and finance U.S. export trade. Eximbank’spurpose is to provide financing in situations where private financial institutions are unable orunwilling because:

 i) the loan maturity was too long;

 ii) the amount of the loan was too large;

 iii)the loan risk was too great; and,

 iv) where the importing firm had difficulty obtaining hardcurrency for payment. To meet its objectives, Eximbank provides service through three types of programs: direct loans to foreign borrowers, loan guarantees, and credit insurance

I dont see much rationale in the items above related to Sri Lanka? Do you have any statistics? Aren't the existing banks banks already facilitating exports? Any problems in import financing? Nothing of substance related to SL. Both public and private banks are doing enough. And if you think a new bank that can take a risk more that BOC/ PB/ COMB and HNB etc it has to be very large bank. What kind of capital is required? What kind of demand is required for imports and exports?

Secondly, what is that to do with construction? How about agriculture and SME? What is the rationale?

Thank you puliyanam for your valuable contribution in this important thread. I totally agree with your point with respect to Importers. I don't think that importers ( since generally, they are large) are facing any fund issue as banks are competing with each other to finance them. However small/medium entrepreneurs are not adequately supported by the Commercial Banks. In some instances, they find difficult to raise even short-term funding for their raw material needs in export production. Therefore especially export manufactures/exporters need some sort of ease finance to enhance their businesses. Since exporters are competing with many other suppliers in the international market, it is not practical for them to borrow at comparatively higher rates. In light of the above, I believe that the government is on the right track.