Gota's Era

If we want reasons to worry we have enough. But if you are a careful investor there are enough good reasons to invest.

Bad News is like music to an investor.

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30-1 යෝජනාවෙන් ඉවත් වුණාට ජිනීවා ලොක්කීට යකා නගී.. ලංකාවට දිගට හරහට චෝදනා කරමින් තර්ජන කරයි..
February 28, 2020 at 2:10 pm | lanka C news  
ජිනීවා එක්සත් ජාතීන්ගේ මානව හිමිකම් කොමිසමට සම අනුග්‍රහකත්වයෙන් ඉදිරිපත් ඉදිරිපත් කරන ලද යෝජනාවන්ගෙන් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව ඉවත්වීම ගැන කණගාටුවන බව මානව හිමිකම් කොමිසමේ මහකොමසාරිස් මිචෙල් බැචලෙට් සඳහන් කරන්නීය.
පැවැති ආණ්ඩුවව වඩා වෙනස් ප්‍රවේශයක් වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව ලබාගැනීම සම්බන්ධයෙන් තමන් කණගාටුවන බවද එම ප්‍රවේශයෙන් ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ ප්‍රතිසන්ධානය වගවීම හා මානව හිමිකම් ඉදිරියට ගමන් කිරීම වැළැක්වීමේ අවදානමක් ඇති බවත් ඇය කියා සිටියාය.
ඇය මේ අදහස් පළකරන ලද්දේ ජිනීවා මානව හිමිකම් සමුළුව අමතමින් ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සම්බන්ධයෙන් විශේෂ ප්‍රකාශයක් කරමිනි.
ශ‍්‍රී ලංකා රජය විසින් දේශීය යාන්ත්‍රණ ක්‍රියාදාමයන් මීට පෙරද ක්‍රියාත්මක කළත් ඒවායෙන් ගැටලු විසඳා නැති බවත් කොමිෂන් සභා පත් කිරීම මගින් ගැටලු සඳහා විසඳුමක් නොලැබෙන බවත් තම විශ්වාසය යයිද ඇය කියා සිටියාය.
ශ්‍රී ලංකාව සිවිල් කටයුතුවලට ආරක්ෂක අංශ සහ විශ්‍රාමික හමුදා නිලධාරීන් යොදවා ගැනීම ගැන කණගාටුවට පත්වන බවද ඇය තවදුරටත් පැවසුවාය.
ශ්‍රී ලංකාව තුළ දෙමළ සහ මුස්ලිම් ජාතීන්ට වෙනස් ලෙස සැලකීම හා වෛරී ප්‍රකාශන වැඩිවෙමින් පවතින බවද නිරීක්ෂණය වී ඇතැයි ඇය සඳහන් කළාය.
මානව හිමිකම් කඩවීම සම්බන්ධයෙන් පැවති අතීත තත්ත්වයන් නැවත ඇති නොවනු ඇතැයි ශ්‍රී ලංකිකයන්ට සහතිකයක් නැති බවද ඇය තවදුරටත් එහිදී කියා සිටියාය.

Congressional Record: Proceedings and Debates of the ... ...

books.google.lk › books


United States. Congress - 1965 - ‎Law
Everywhere in our Government we see a burgeoning of retired and active military ... Americans who trace their American ancestry to colonial days carry the rich ... are being, pushed from civilian jobs by military men—most of them retired brass.

45	Donald Trump	None	None	None
44	Barack Obama	None	None	None[1]
43	George W. Bush	Texas Air National Guard	First Lieutenant	Stateside service as pilot during Vietnam War (1968–1973).[2] (See George W. Bush military service controversy)
42	Bill Clinton	None	None	None[3]
41	George H. W. Bush	United States Naval Reserve	Lieutenant (Junior Grade)	Naval aviator in World War II (1942–1945). Shot down and received the Distinguished Flying Cross.
40	Ronald Reagan	United States Army Reserve, United States Army Air Forces	Captain	Stateside service during World War II (1942–1945); Army Reserve (1937–1942).
39	Jimmy Carter	United States Navy	Lieutenant (navy)	Served during World War II as a midshipman at the United States Naval Academy. Sea duty and stateside service 1946–1953 during the Korean War.
38	Gerald Ford	United States Naval Reserve	Lieutenant Commander	World War II (1942–1945); combat on USS Monterey, discharged in 1946.
37	Richard Nixon	United States Naval Reserve	Commander	World War II (1942–1945); earned two battle stars for service in the Pacific.
36	Lyndon B. Johnson	United States Naval Reserve	Commander[4]	World War II. Received Silver Star after observation mission in which aircraft he was on came under Japanese attack.[5] This was Johnson's only observation flight, and Johnson was the only individual on it to receive an award, leading many historians to conclude that Douglas MacArthur presented it to secure Johnson's political influence.[6]
35	John F. Kennedy	United States Naval Reserve	Lieutenant	Served in combat during World War II. Received the Navy and Marine Corps Medal and the Purple Heart.
34	Dwight D. Eisenhower	United States Army	General of the Army	Stateside service during World War I. Served as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe during World War II (1942–1945). Entire active-duty career spanned from 1915 until 1969 (excepting his two terms as president).
33	Harry S. Truman[7]	Missouri Army National Guard,	Colonel	Stateside National Guard service in Missouri (1905–1911); served in combat in France during World War I (1917–1918); transferred to Army Reserve and retired in 1953
		United States Army,
		United States Army Reserve

Anyone who wants to know former military men becoming US Presidents...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_military_service

Welcome back.

ruwan326 wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:What you see now is a Barrel Roll only and the real Nose Dive will begin only after the General Elections.

How about changing the topic to Gota's thitha(.) insted of era
I saw this coming in my last post




Some people still didn't learn the lesson ,rather than worshiping politicians and doing slavery to them and wasting time here for political crap how about focus on shares.

yellow knife wrote:Anyone who wants to know former military men becoming US Presidents...

Presidents are the symbol of power.
Practically, the power is in military and money.

So the three should go hand in hand.

That's natural isn't it?


Voters have the chance to vote for their preferred candidate.
But candidates are chosen by those who have Money and power.

Yes, let's talk about shares.
The FD interest rate has gone down from 10% to 8% and many were hoping part of that investment will come here.
But hitherto no such sign.
The first two days brilliant turnovers were reported and look now.
Companies are reporting reasonably good earnings but the market is not responding.
Why?
Because despite some have a slave's mind, the market knows that this regime is not capable of doing anything good except for repeating their last time performances 100 times higher this time.  

මා ජනාධිපති වී පසු ගතවූ දින 100 ආණ්ඩුව ගැන සෑහීමට පත්වෙන්න බෑ..- ජනපති
March 6, 2020 at 10:40 am | lanka C news
ජනාධිපතිවරණයෙන් අනතුරුව ගත වූ දින 100 සම්බන්ධයෙන් තම මට්ටමට අනුව තමන් සෑහීමකට පත් නොවන බව ජනාධිපති ගෝඨාභය රාජපක්ෂ මහතා පැවසීය.
පුවත්පත් කතුවරුන් හා විද්‍යුත් මාධ්‍ය ප්‍රධානීන් සමග ඊයේ (05දා) ජනාධිපති ලේකම් කාර්යාලයේ පැවැති හමුවකදී ඔහු මේ බව පැවැසීය.
මෙහිදී ජනාධිපතිවරයාට යොමු කෙරුණු ප්‍රශ්නයක් වූයේ තම වැඩපිළිවෙළ පිළිබඳ 100%ක් සතුටුවීමට ඉදිරියේදී කුමනාකාරයේ ක්‍රියාමාර්ග ගන්නේද යන්නයි.
එයට පිළිතුරු දුන් ජනාධිපතිවරයා සඳහන් කළේ වැඩි බලයක් සහිත තම ප්‍රතිපත්ති සමග ගැලපෙන ආණ්ඩුවක් නිර්මාණය කර ගැනීමට උත්සාහ කරන්නේ ඒ නිසා බවයි.
වත්මන් රජයේ තනතුරුවලට පත් වූ ඇතැම් අය පිළිබඳ සෑහීමකට පත්වීමට නොහැකි වුවද, සමස්තයක් ලෙස පසුගිය රජයන්වල පත්කළ පිරිසට වඩා හොඳින් ඔවුන් සේවය කරන බවද ජනාධිපතිවරයා මෙහිදී සඳහන් කළේය.
“අපි පත්කළ අය වෙන රජයන්වලට වඩා හොඳින් කරනවා. උදාහරණයක් ලෙස ශ්‍රී ලංකන් එක ගන්න. කිසිම වරප්‍රසාදයක් ගන්නේ නෑ. ඔවුන් ගුවන් සේවය දියුණු කරන්න හොඳ වැඩපිළිවෙළක් කරලා තිබෙනවා.
අයි.සී.ටී. එක බලන්න, ඒකත් හොඳයි. සමහර අය ගැන සෑහීමකට පත්වෙන්න බැරි වුණත් ඒ අයට තමන්ගේ හැකියාව ඔප්පු කරන්න අවස්ථාවක් තිබෙනවා. එහෙම නොකළොත් ඔවුන්ව ඉවත් කරනවා.”
රජයේ ඇතැම් ප්‍රධාන තනතුරු සඳහා හමුදා නිලධාරීන් යෙදවීම සම්බන්ධයෙන් එල්ල වී ඇති චෝදනාවලට පිළිතුරු දුන් ජනාධිපතිවරයා,
“මම පත්කරලා තිබුණ ප්‍රමාණයටත් වඩා ගිය ආණ්ඩුව හමුදා නිලධාරීන් රජයේ හා සංස්ථාවල තනතුරුවලට පත්කරලා තිබුණා. කවුරුත් ඒ ගැන කතා කරන්නේ නෑ. හමුදා නිලධාරියෙක් පරිපාලයට පත් කළාම තියන වැරැද්ද මොකක්ද?
හමුදා නිලධාරියෙක් විශාල පුහුණුවක් ලබනවා. ජනරාල් කෙනෙක් වෙනකොට අතිවිශාල පුහුණුවක් ලබනවා. ලෝකෙ පුරා අත්දැකීම් ලබා ගන්නවා. ඔවුන් පරිපාලනයට සූදානම් වෙලා ඉන්නේ. ලෝකේ හැම රටකම එහෙමයි. ඇයි එහෙනම් අපට බැරි. අපි කරද්දි ඇයි මේක අහන්නේ. මේවා දේශපාලනික කතා.”
එසේම මේ වනවිට දේශපාලන වේදිකාවේ කතාබහට ලක්ව ඇති ‘ගෝඨා – සජිත්’ සුසංයෝගය පිළිබඳ අදහස් දක්වමින් ජනාධිපතිවරයා පැවසුවේ තමන්ගේ ප්‍රතිපත්ති ඇත්තේ තම පක්ෂය තුළ බවත්, අසාර්ථක ප්‍රතිපත්ති පැවැති පිරිසක් සමග ගමන් කළ නොහැකි බවත්ය.
“මට අවශ්‍ය මගේ රජයක්. මගේ ප්‍රතිපත්ති තිබෙන්නේ අපේ පක්ෂයේ. ඒ ප්‍රතිපත්ති මාලාව අරගෙන යන්නේ අපේ අය. ඒකීය රාජ්‍යයක් නොවන, ජාතිකවාදී නොවන, ස්වෛරීත්වය හා නිදහස, ආර්ථිකය ගැන අවබෝධයකින් තොරව අසාර්ථක ප්‍රතිපත්ති තිබුණ පිරිසක් සමග මට ගමන් කරන්න බෑ. මගේ ප්‍රතිපත්ති හා සමාන අය අවශ්‍යයි.
ආර්ථිකය පිළිබඳ යොමු වූ ප්‍රශ්නයකට පිළිතුරු දෙමින් ජනාධිපතිවරයා සඳහන් කළේ තම ආණ්ඩුව යටතේ ලබාදුන් බදු සහන හේතුවෙන් ව්‍යාපාර රාශියක් යථා තත්ත්වයට පත් වූ බවත්, ආර්ථිකය ගොඩනැගීමට තමන්ට හැකියාවක් ඇති බවත්ය.
පසුගිය මාස කිහිපයේ ගෝලීය තත්ත්වයන් නිසා සමස්ථ ලෝක ආර්ථිකයේම පසු බැසීමක් පැවතීම ශ්‍රී ලංකාවට ද බලපෑම් කළද ඉදිරියේ දී ඒ බලපෑම් වළක්වාගෙන ඉදිරියටයෑමට උත්සාහ කරන බවද ජනාධිපතිවරයා පැවසීය

Talking is easy but walking those talks are not that easy.
Seen an interesting comment on one of the social media sites recently, aptly depicting the present situation.
" පුටින් වගේ කියලා ගෙනාපු එකා හිටන්ටත් හපන් වැඩ කරන්නේ! "

ASPI recorded the second biggest drop in SL history as it dropped by 221.24 points today. The highest drop of 300.59 points was recorded in 2010.




Spread out of Corona Virus can be assigned as a reason.

WHO officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic

Its difficult to compare between one as Walter Disney used to say. So I took Dow Jones Industrial Average and ASPI to find a possible impact of Covid 19.. Red line is ASPI.

That's interesting. Thanks.

Thanks YK.

That's a very informative chart YK.

Dow Jones show almost predictable, crowd behavior patterns.
ASPI looks very choppy and very vague in pattern making.

Technical traders must be finding it very difficult to perform in CSE.

When I posted the below comparative graph ( which include USA too) ,

1) https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t11785-cse-close-reopening-vs-rest-of-the-world
2) https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t11791-cse-from-may-11th-onwards

before market reopened on May 11th , I wanted to highlight how CSE
has under performed against most of the  world /countries ( USA included)
which has so much higher COVID19 impact !

The recent CSE recovery has done some justice as somewhat expected .

As mentioned in 1) post,  a further crash of 10% from pre May 11th
( one broker analyst from First Capital was  saying as extreme of 35% )
was not warranted.  Fortunately , ASI did recover after only about
 8% down , and  did not go the full 10% .


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On the Thread topic


1) We need to commend the handling and precautions taken by government
over COVID19.  They did an overall good job to contain COVID19.


2) But Balancing Health, Economy , Education, and Well fare of Public  
 is the Job of the government! That why they are appointed  


I) The  continuous very strict curfews,

a) shuttered most businesses ,

b) with no easy mechanism for rural folk to go buy food/medicine / no buses 
( without flocking for a few hours on the same day )

c)or  finding a way for day laborers to survive

have made a massive impact on the economy / hardship on non affluent people.

Even Banking/Finance sector was declared as an essential only later.
Such should have been declared an essential service from 1st day of shutdown .

II) CSE should have never been shut down for 6 weeks.

That certainly did destroy Foreign investor confidence exacerbating
foreign selling further when CSE finally did open. If CSE had a way to
to be opened atleast since April, by now the foreign selling would be
mostly over.  

What guarantee will be  there for foreigners , a CSE shut down  again with
not happen without notice.  I am sure foreigner are worried about such too.
( what the point of having market if they don't have liquidity to withdraw
when they want)

Except CSE and Bangladesh , other countries kept their markets open.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~


I hope this pandemic will provide an educational lesson for   government
to be more prepared and organized when an unexpected pandemic comes
again in the  future ( hope not but hey life is life) .

Taiwan handled the Corona so well as they had experience from SARS.

New Zealand did a very good job too.


~~~~~~~~~

Thanks SLS,

Foreigners have been net sellers well ahead of Corona Spread. The thread shows that negativity from the very beginning.

YK,

Yes, fair enough foreign selling was there before market close in March.  
But foreign selling is usual at CSE. Inflows are rare.

Issue is did CSE closure for 6 weeks affect Investor confidence?
I definitely think it did.

Here is an easy to understand example :

Let say a USA fund wanted to sell their shares on March 22th.
Then they wanted to take the money and reinvest in USA stocks.

What happened is CSE was shut and they couldn't withdraw.  
If they did and reinvested say in USA, they could have gained 20-30%
in certain shares.

That a big opportunity miss .
What gurantee does a foreign fund have that this won't happen again at CSE.

When the market opened, I am sure some  foreign fund were more comfortable
to exit Sri Lanka soon as possible to take that money and reinvest somewhere else without taking this risk again.

Out credit rating is also very bad.
Also with Rs depreciations  matters worse.

Agreed...

Over the weekend it came to light that Sri Lanka’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) project was being placed on the back burner after the Japanese government - who funded the project - halted funding, having raised concerns regarding Sri Lanka’s ability to repay the loan.

The Government of Japan had been alarmed by a combination of factors, specifically, Sri Lanka’s request for a debt moratorium from Japan, combined with Sri Lanka pushing ahead with the construction of new power plants. This, along with the President’s assertion earlier in the year that the project would not be able to continue for the next five years, had given Japan enough pause to halt financing altogether.

For the Japanese government, much of their consternation arises from perceived policy inconsistencies and a lack of clarity on the part of the Sri Lankan Government with regard to their ever-growing national debt.

This, while not a new nor novel concern, is nevertheless a red-hot indicator as to the direction in which the Sri Lankan economy is heading - lest it correct course expeditiously. For many years now, Sri Lanka’s investment framework from a policy standpoint has been extremely flawed. Successive Governments have been involved in a cycle of taking up ill-thought out proposals that have a very long return on investment, rushing through tender procedures, and axing the previous regime’s plans once coming in to power, to name but a few in a long list of grievances.

Sri Lanka’s steady drop in growth numbers and repeated balance of payments crisis over the years only serves to solidify the view that the country’s debt dynamics are simply not working. And to paraphrase Einstein, the clearest sign of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly expecting different results.

For Sri Lanka, the plan to leverage debt in the search for economic growth has just about run its course. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has rocketed from roughly 55% in 2006 to over 90% in 2020.

It’s clear that despite such high spending, there just isn’t enough economic growth to show for it. And what’s even clearer is that, as it stands, there is no longer enough room for manoeuvring. This year alone debt repayments total Rs. 4.8 billion, of which Rs 3.2 billion is still outstanding.

For the Sri Lankan Government and President Rajapaksa, this should serve as a wakeup call, but also an opportunity to avoid the same pitfalls of previous regimes - where long-term objectives are waylaid by irredeemable mistakes in the short-run. The first step of subverting this trend is to, rather than push through projects haphazardly sans parliamentary oversight, wait till Parliament is in session and instead use this critical time period at the start of their term to clearly identify, debate and demarcate a core set of projects. Secondly, match the said projects to President Rajapaksa’s election manifesto. And finally, ensure that whatever projects are approved and financed, they fit in with Sri Lanka’s long-term economic reforms.

This means that, while ensuring cheap electricity generation is essential to development, it should not come at the expense of long-term sustainability objectives. Nor can the country continue to indiscriminately increase its national debt on economic projects that lack a clear plan of economic return. Sri Lanka, quite simply, cannot afford any more slip-ups.

Daily FT Editorial. 16.06.2020

I have said this earlier somewhere in this forum. Japan is our friend, period. Dont confuse this with anything else, they are not like USA, India or China. A grateful friend for the help JRJ did in canvassing support for them by quoting Lord Buddha in the UN. Make no mistake, they will try everything possible to support us, if we know how to work with them.

But if some have other interests, then Japan is not the country to work with.

puliyanam wrote:I have said this earlier somewhere in this forum. Japan is our friend, period. Dont confuse this with anything else, they are not like USA, India or China. A grateful friend for the help JRJ did in canvassing support for them by quoting Lord Buddha in the UN. Make no mistake, they will try everything possible to support us, if we know how to work with them.