Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Lately, I have been seduced by a naughty mistress.
GREG
I lost my sleep over 02 dreamt beauties
SAMP, NDB
I was invited to have a long-term relationship with reliable girlfriends,
TJL, JKH
and nevertheless, I got a bad habit of visiting a brothel to see,
BFN, DPL

xmart wrote:Lately, I have been seduced by a naughty mistress.
GREG
I lost my sleep over 02 dreamt beauties
SAMP, NDB
I was invited to have a long-term relationship with reliable girlfriends,
TJL, JKH
and nevertheless, I got a bad habit of visiting a brothel to see,
BFN, DPL

NDB -- Yap after Rights done and Dusted
TJL -- One of my Favorites.Super management .Good Dividend. Recovering after Few Bad Quarters. $ appreciating.
Greg --Yes and TAP too for the same reasons..
BFN...Yes at 12..

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:How about REXP?

Yes KITH..Trailing PE around 4.43. Consistent growth. $ Effect.

Welcome back SLS. Thanks a lot for your time and effort.

Thanks serene for valuable info. As a policy I refrain from recommending shares.

Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks serene for valuable info. As a policy I refrain from recommending shares.

You are Welcome ET.
This not a Recommendation by any stretch of imagination.
I just put Shares I'm following.
If anyone prompt buying any shares on my list this Just a Reminder My return for this Year as at 2018/09/28 ( From 2018/03/31) is -15.31%.(LOSS)
Basically when I buy those shares at that time I had the same feeling as to day.

1) Since you made an effort to further add value for public with some reasons too, I thought I should honor your effort  by commenting something.

I feel your list should be  categorized as  below before people make any choice.


Share suitable for Investors  :

Share for Traders  ( actually any share is for Traders as long as it moves) :


2)

Notes :

a) For me LDEV is clearly a trading company. We should not forget their history, their constant right issues games and inconsistency in earnings.

b) EAST has consistency issues  . Even with them trying to sell their Hotel and trading ops created time to time , I would treat this as a trading share.

c) EXPO maybe investment worthy now.


d) UAL, I think has been running a bit too far. True their earning improved but this share has run 100% within short time as it is very illiquid.  
Until I see next 2 quarter earnings  to justify the price I would stay conservative on UAL.

As for foreigners buying UAL even at Rs 300+  know some foreigners  can  be  traders too.

HHL GAME

HHL was bought by foreigner over Rs 120 to 140.  I complained and warned like hell on HHL saying it is overvalued when it was 145.  Many thought it can run more and didn't agree with me as buying kept coming for HHL !  

How much is HHL now ? Rs 85 ( HHL is still overvalued to others in the sector). Also if Templeton quits  HHL,  god bless.

So these rather illiquid companies bought by Foreigners , we need to be a bit careful.

serene wrote:SLS my Picks are follows,
SAMP  -
Good growth over the Year.
Massive Two Rights will improve Interest margins.
Last Quarter High Impairment and foreign Selling Dragged this to 235 from 300's.  
Most innovative bank which Inculcate performance based  culture.

LION
Blessed with most conducive environment to Prosper after flood Havoc.
Bought around 600s.
One of Foreign Favorites.

PAP
Good rainfall / Good Dividend / Owners collecting

LLUB
 At 65 Good Dividend Yield

PLC
Attractive at 14. With Rs.1.25 dividends

JKH
 130 Very appealing Price  and Captain Factor

COMB, HNB
 At dream Prices

EAST
Speculative / Even though risky 14.50 worth a Risk

PINS
 Dividend yield Over 10% / Dropped Due to last Quarter

AAIC
 I like their Marketing Strategy and Shows a Good Growth

LDEV
 With Dollar Appreciation seems to be good at 4.30

LOFC
 With the merger they might have better Earnings / But don't have a good Idea about the recent announcement

UAL
 Trading at a Bit Higher Prices But Forighners Buying at over 300

TESS / ASIY / EXPO
  Just for Trading

Very true SLS.
Can go anywhere should have a clear mind and a Stop Loss .

xmart wrote:Lately, I have been seduced by a naughty mistress.
GREG
I lost my sleep over 02 dreamt beauties
SAMP, NDB
I was invited to have a long-term relationship with reliable girlfriends,
TJL, JKH
and nevertheless, I got a bad habit of visiting a brothel to see,
BFN, DPL

Some comments :

I see BFN as a game playing share as it is illiquid. It doesn't have much fundamental value too. But on the News it going to be sold out, sometime ago many promoted this at Rs 20 too. Still some does at another forum. There will be people who bought higher due to same fact.

It keeps happening and trading ops time to time are created like that.
I don't know whether it will be sold, but if it does , wonder how we should value every other share in it sector ( Finance) comparatively?


I would strictly treat BFN as a trading share.

SAMP or NDB. Out of these two, one share is more attractive to me than the other.
And it may not be the obvious favorite of many

MILLION Thanks  

serene wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:How about REXP?

Yes KITH..Trailing PE around 4.43. Consistent growth. $ Effect.

Thanks SLS for lengthy analysis.

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:How about REXP?

When REXP ran a lot and people were trying to push more after a big run (at Rs 280)  I warned about it.  People predicted/expected their earning to keep booming.  But  year to year ( 2017 to 2018) earnings dropped .  But  REXP has been holding it ground rather okay with earnings  I should say . Now it is about Rs 160.  

Though their BV and PE is not the greatest  in market ( as many shares are now at discount) considering  present fundamentals and its dividend yield, REXP seems decent at this price.

ps : I can write more details on REXP , but will keep it short as discussion here are not happening much. I am just answering Kithisiri's question.

Dear SLS.

can you give idea about LOFC recent announcement.

is that possible to partially convert equity to Debenture(I mean Main Share holder holding Equity and other has to Convert to Debenture by Force. and who has rights to convert or not. I feel they are try to do this or   Di-list by giving offer(standard way) and trading debenture existing and future introduce. )

if they offer something about 8-9 I will go for debenture bcz debenture will give another 13-14% interest per year.


******  maybe they are trying to do Di-List and trade equity in Singapore Market all other debenture trading at CSE. (I mean without converting Equity to Debenture)

I Think bcz FTA with Singapore and that Market trading around 16-18 P/E. Di-List giving offer around 8-9 and they can sale it Singapore Market around 15-20 P/E. with current EPS Imagine the price and profit. these people are very clever and make money.

any Idea...

Thanks a MILLION.

slstock wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:How about REXP?

When REXP ran a lot and people were trying to push more after a big run (at Rs 280)  I warned about it.  People predicted/expected their earning to keep booming.  But  year to year ( 2017 to 2018) earnings dropped .  But  REXP has been holding it ground rather okay with earnings  I should say . Now it is about Rs 160.  

Though their BV and PE is not the greatest  in market ( as many shares are now at discount) considering  present fundamentals and its dividend yield, REXP seems decent at this price.

ps : I can write more details on REXP , but will keep it short as discussion here are not happening much. I am just answering Kithisiri's question.

stockback wrote:Dear SLS.

can you give idea about LOFC recent announcement.

is that possible to partially convert equity to Debenture(I mean Main Share holder holding Equity and other has to Convert to Debenture by Force. and who has rights to convert or not. I feel they are try to do this or   Di-list by giving offer(standard way) and trading debenture existing and future introduce. )

if they offer something about 8-9 I will go for debenture bcz debenture will give another 13-14% interest per year.


******  maybe they are trying to do Di-List and trade equity in Singapore Market all other debenture trading at CSE. (I mean without converting Equity to Debenture)

I Think bcz FTA with Singapore and that Market trading around 16-18 P/E. Di-List giving offer around 8-9 and they can sale it Singapore Market around 15-20 P/E. with current EPS Imagine the price and profit. these people are very clever and make money.

any Idea...

Am in the middle of some issues. But will take time to answer in a bit of details as a help.

I will tell you frankly what I feel ( as you are holding LOFC, don't take anything what I say personally but think of it logically whether it make sense or not okay ?)


1) There 2 groups I am careful at CSE.  Second one is LOLC group. Both these groups are famous for inter company/inter party games.

But as a positive I should say LOLC group is managed better ( except browns group) than the other.    

2) Regarding this offer by LOFC , it is unusual as they had other options. I see it as another different  ploy. But to answer your questions  ( this is what I think and I can be wrong)  

 i)  I believe they cannot just force people swap shares to Debentures
 ii) they will have to get CSE permission and then hold a Share holder Special Meeting  to get approval.

 COCR tried to force a similar with TFIL to buy shares of TFIL holder by force to delist. But CSE also got involved ( after few years ! ) and it didn't work out .

3) I don't know whether they will or not, but I feel you should not  expect too much like  Rs 8-9 for LOFC even if they give cash offer ( unless to convert to debenture) . Am saying so , so you won't be dissapointed if it doesn't happen. That 2 times book value of LOFC   ( which is possible but .... this is not another company trying to take over LOFC at a higher price).  It like valuing CFIN to Rs 320 ( now Rs 90) and CDB to Rs 280 ( now Rs 83).

If they are desperate that can do it , but don't hold you breath.

4) When thinking about taking LOFC to list anywhere  else, we need to consider another deeper fact.
What happens to the sister company CLC.
Also it is rather interesting LOFC is performing decently while CLC is not !  
What going on here?

It is not logical for them to take LOFC only to list else where  as there are many companies in this group ( LOLC, CLC, BRWN etc)

Now am not saying like CSEC did , they cannot do something out of a magician hat.  But best to think about all sides and not expect too much to avoid disappointment.  

Btw, converting  to  a debenture of 14-15% is not really a terrible  choice , unless there is big direct cash offer for LOFC shares.  

If I were you , I would go step by step
a) see what CSE says
b) then whether they call an Extraordinary meeting
( and if so whether shareholder will approve or not )

LOFC Reference Price 5 ----- 2011

then what will happen. some investor hold 7 years with reference price is 5.0 then no dividend situation. practically they will expect some good.

if some one going to Court they cannot proceed the plan.

I am sure they are going to trade in another Market and using FTA. then they can get above 20 price. I know these people are very clever and if they wants to success the has to give good offer. thats why I am saying 8-9. Otherwise they cannot success.

Di-List and drop 45% new Market they will make more than 40 Billions.

this is my logic.

Dear SLS

can you tell me about Reference Price. I think LOFC has to offer more than this at least.

ha haa... so kith's one million share is rexp.

Thanks SLS.

stockback wrote:LOFC Reference Price 5 ----- 2011

then what will happen. some investor hold 7 years with reference price is 5.0 then no dividend situation. practically they will expect some good.

if some one going to Court they cannot proceed the plan.

I am sure they are going to trade in another Market and using FTA. then they can get above 20 price. I know these people are very clever and if they wants to success the has to give good offer. thats why I am saying 8-9. Otherwise they cannot success.

Di-List and drop 45% new Market they will make more than 40 Billions.

this is my logic.

Dear SLS

can you tell me about Reference Price. I think LOFC has to offer more than this at least.

As part answer to your question/valuations , consider this too

a) When LOFC was initiated at CSE ( this Rs 5 ), ASI was 7100 or something. Market PE was 20.    So they took the opportunity to value it higher. Then pushes came.

b) In 2011 total LOFC shares were only 2.7 Bill. Today it is 4.2 billion.

c) Right now they are appearing to suggest to swap shares to debentures.
If so , the price they offer is not direct cash is it? It should be a valuation only to swap to debentures  ( if I understand their vague terminology right) .

Now for this convestion, they can suggest something lucrative for LOFC share holders. But again, am not sure you  should have such high hopes to avoid dissapointment.

Anycase, why worry about what they do after ( if they can ) delist!
It not going to help you right? Also thunk about what I said about other group companies.


Just take things step by step as mentioned before.

I also remember stockbacks massive promotions on bfl at 240, acap at about 13, cocr at 70, galadari above 10... this is what I only remember..

SAMP or NDB. Out of these two,  one share is more attractive to me than the other.
And it may not be  the obvious favorite of many
  [/quote]

SLS,

Pls advice me on NDB, i wanted to enter into NDB for long term from right issue by applying additional shares, did not subscribe as it is trading below rights. What is your advice on entering current price. will it come down?

CK wrote:I also remember stockbacks massive promotions on bfl at 240, acap at about 13, cocr at 70, galadari above 10... this is what I only remember..

not only. every one has discussed about stock price at up level. market down.

please give me 10 example which has same level when ASPI at 7500 level.

slstock wrote:

stockback wrote:LOFC Reference Price 5 ----- 2011

then what will happen. some investor hold 7 years with reference price is 5.0 then no dividend situation. practically they will expect some good.

if some one going to Court they cannot proceed the plan.

I am sure they are going to trade in another Market and using FTA. then they can get above 20 price. I know these people are very clever and if they wants to success the has to give good offer. thats why I am saying 8-9. Otherwise they cannot success.

Di-List and drop 45% new Market they will make more than 40 Billions.

this is my logic.

Dear SLS

can you tell me about Reference Price. I think LOFC has to offer more than this at least.

As part answer to your question/valuations , consider this too

a) When LOFC was initiated at CSE ( this Rs 5 ), ASI was 7100 or something. Market PE was 20.    So they took the opportunity to value it higher. Then pushes came.

b) In 2011 total LOFC shares were only 2.7 Bill. Today it is 4.2 billion.

c) Right now they are appearing to suggest to swap shares to debentures.
If so , the price they offer is not direct cash is it? It should be a valuation only to swap to debentures  ( if I understand their vague terminology right) .

Now for this convestion, they can suggest something lucrative for LOFC share holders. But again, am not sure you  should have such high hopes to avoid dissapointment.

Anycase, why worry about what they do after ( if they can ) delist!
It not going to help you right? Also thunk about what I said about other group companies.


Just take things step by step as mentioned before.

Thank You SLS....

To All:

Does anyone realize  the truth and depth of YK  comment ( last few  paragraphs).
I am the only one who gave him a like !

Explains  a lot why CSE and forum is like this. And we blame others.


YK :

What is this ?
The people at this forum are incorrigible ( you too haha).

When forum is starting to get active little by little  ( market ran for 4 days too), you disappear

So much effort is needed to make the forum  active from Zombie state.
Sometimes have to individually convince people behind the scene to write here.

But when one appears and other disappear.

How can the forum sustain ( same logic why CSE is like this )

Time you start writing again YK.


To ALL :

Above  goes out to all of you who has the capacity to participate or even contribute more  for a public cause ( I mean not promote/demote for personal reasons but to give educational inputs and material ) that will benefit you too in the longer term but you choose keep quiet and just watch.  


( you"ll have no idea what I too am sacrificing to put time to write here. Some may call me stupid if they knew )

yellow knife wrote:Its a good sign to see much participation taking place with this thread.

Now I don't think that anyone has valid reasons to not to agree with the points SLS clarifies on Foreign Sales. Its not the Fed Rate hike but the LKR devaluation that promotes exodus of foreigners from CSE.

Wether its foreigners or locals we often driven by Herd Mentality. We just do what others do. When someone else is selling I am also selling. When someone else is buying I am also buying.

Now the problem is Why Not You Buy when fundamentally there are many gems. When its hard to identify Gems, everyone is analyisng to find hidden Gems. Now Gems are obvious. But no one is buying.

Why?

Because EPF is not buying, because foreigners are selling, because HNVIs are not active and we have enough reasons.

these are the best times to buy.

People value shares from two perspective.

1. Based on Fundamentals. (Ref. CDB ratios as explained by SLS above)

2. Based on " What I think the value others are valuing".

Since the second type of people are more , it gives ample of opportunities for type 1 of above.

Thanks SLS for this timely post.

True SLS what YK is telling is very true.
I see two main reasons for this. At least to me until such day I get rid of those two reasons YKs point is 100% valid.
1. Too much emotions and confidence on a share without paying required attention to CSE as a whole. Which leads not to book profits by striping at a right price
EX: SAMP at 300..
2.Buying shares at a appealing price but still at a bearish tech calls. Buying SAMP at 260.is it ok if you buying small quantities though.
If you are guilty at above two scenario Samp at 235 May not attractive to you.
I arbitrary rake SAMP as a example. Who knows it might come to 200 with another foriegn sell off.
There are other reasons as well but to me above two are my highest faults.