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What the hell is wrong with CSE?
Fact 1 :
ASI was 7500+ in Aug 2015 !
Nearly 3 years later , with many companies improving asset values,
ASI is 20% down ( when it should be up) and has nearly hit 6000!
ASI is now back at same stage ( 6000+) as March 2016 !
What the hell ? Pettah market must be a better investment than CSE right?
Fact 2:
Do you know CSE is one of the most attractive Frontier markets in the world right now based on multiples it is trading at? CSE is trading at PE of around 10, PBV of 1.2+ and dividend yield of 3.2%.
Is it worth to invest at CSE?
Title question and latter question, am sure are in most investor's minds right?
To be honest I too was getting dejected about CSE as it has been a real waste of
Investment over the last few years.
Even putting in an FD would bring easy 12%.
At CSE except for Dividends ( which by now are taxed at 14% shamefully make things worse)
and occasional tiny rallies which will reverse eventually ( why?), there is no justice for even
the strong Gems of Shares right? We only see our investment going down and down ?
I always wondered why CSE had so many Traders/short term people compared to Investors.
I think I now know the answer why this happens.
a) most people who entered CSE forums were people who are new to CSE and
only saw the extreme volatility of CSE within the few years of presence
b) many like to make quick money and consider patient investing a waste of opportunity anyway.
So with a volatile CSE they will ask why hold shares to lose money when we can "Anna and Panna"
Well the sad fact is there weren't too many Anna Panna trading ops even for past few years!
EVERYONE is in the soup !
Though I can't blame anyone who turns styles due to the volatility, I have to point out
this issue is a chicken and egg story.
CSE is so volatile as too many people panic and sell, even value gems for ridiculous prices.
If all held their valuable shares, there will be No one to sell. Then Buyer demand will naturally increase.
But when valuable shares are at ridiculous prices, some will then ask why should we care about
Fundamentals/Value shares which don't move ?
See Chicken and Egg story again.
When we create a negative market , the greedy , now places their buy orders lower and lower.
ASI goes lower and lower.
(Btw the most of the greediest people in the world are usually the people who have the money.
Usually people with little are more generous ( and one can find truth in what I say in real life too right?)
See the cycle?
We can easily blame the Government ( which I do too as they really have let CSE rot )
or the World, but do you see How WE too contribute to this mess !!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now lets start some Analysis ...
How is CSE performing compared to other Asian Countries ?
Note the Chart.
India VS Sri Lanka!
India ( Sensex) has gone up by about 40% since 2016.
YES India has gone up 40%.
Indian Market PE is over 20 from what I recall.
But CSE market PE is cheap at about 10. ( in 2011 PE was 25+ when everyone
was thinking to sell their Ati kukulas to buy shares)
But even at this very cheap rate CSE is down 20% . Say what? WHY really?
Even Bangladesh ( DSEX) which is considered a messier country than CSE on corruption,
is so much better than CSE ! Almost all Asian market from Pakistan to Japan has been up taking
from 10-40% considering the a period of 2 years from 2016 !
Do you see what is happening at CSE is simply SHAMEFUL and UNWARRANTED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let look at the USA/World situation and how it affects CSE
USA share market ( Dow Jones index) was up by about 30% since Trump came
into power ( Jan 2017).
Even with constant FED rate hikes ( FED Reserve is the counter part to SL Central Bank),
still index is 20% up from Jan 2017! Yes Interest Rate hikes makes stock markets lethargic,
but it doesn't have to happen like Sri Lanka. Actually in SL, interest rate has been cut recently.
But anyway our CSE likes to go reverse 20% ! Wonder of Asia.
When US interest rate go up, many of the big fund in US can pull money out of foreign shares.
It has world effect. Yes. But how does that related to tiny CSE?
As far as I saw , there has really not been % wise massive Foreign selling at the tiny CSE
( except for LLUB which has special problems I discussed before) .
In Summary:
FED rate hike and world impact is not much at tiny CSE.
HEY WAIT ! But even if this is a world issue, then how come India/Bangladesh shares market up by 40%/20% . Political uncertainty? What about other nations in ASIA with Political issues. Why are their stock market up? Currency depreciation? India and many Asian currencies depreciated. Why only CSE down by 20% from 2015?
WE SRI LANKANS ARE ROYALLY DIGGING OUR OWN GRAVES at CSE AS FAR AS I SEE.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DIGGING GRAVE?
1) most was mentioned in the below post
http://investorsentiment.forumotion.net/t10483-hello-and-cse#87308
2) now more was mentioned in this post
HERE is a QUESTION FOR YOU ?
How come EPF bought GRAN over Rs 200 in 2010, but now not interested in it at Rs 60 even.
Why is NAV Rs 290 and PE of 6 share ( APLA) trading at Rs 90 with no interest?
Why are so many shares trading at 50% asset Value and nobody is interested?
Why is Dividend 14% share trading at the lowest price I seen in 3 years !
Hey but wait!
So it is rupee depreciation? World impact?
Hey India has them too then!
India is up 40% and market PE is over 20.
Our shares are trading at PE of 4-5 ! But down 20% from 2015.
CSE Investors/Traders doesn't care , except to complain and worry.
Government doesn't care , except to do nothing.
I guess we are waiting for Foreigner to tell us to stop selling our valuable shares
and come buy from us right ? Our Story since our Independance!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lets look at some CSE Charts/ Techicnals
BAD :
By Last week, CSE RSI /MACD numbers were the lowest seen in many years !
Yes Coppock is negative, a bad sign for investors.
ADX was trending up in negative market.
Most indicators I saw were negative still.
Can this bad be turned good?
YES! IF WE WANT TO !!!!
RSI /MACD being lowest is very good sign for some real reversal IF WE WANT IT ?
MACD crossing can happen within another day of continuous green.
RSI can go over 30 again with another day of green.
ADX reversing trend ( it has started already with last green days) is a good.
Bollinger will close his mouth with another few days of green ( if we want the green without selling that is )
ps : There were several Technical people always stating that Charts never lie and they are always accurate.
I think during the last 12 or so months none of such came to put out their firm predictions. They disappear when market is in trouble (appear only when market is in boom). I think these predictions are more useful if they can do it to help public when in distress. Not when market is positive and every share is going up. (No this is not attacking anyone but merely stating a FACT here. No one should take personal )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
How to continue the trend and reverse this negative market?
1) Stop freaking selling specially your Valuable shares at ridiculous prices.( some are at 5 year low)
You will get poorer due to no patience and some cunning person will get richer thank to you.
2) Stop spreading unnecessary market negativity for your selfish gains.
Political uncertainty my foot. If so why has LFIN being not effected and declared Rs 11 dividend
and their assets are ever improving. I saw even GREG declared the highest dividend of their life.
Why has COMB, NDB, SAMP and many other companies performing so well?
3) Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity.
How about letting these foreigner do what they are doing in
India and Bangladesh ( somehow those market are up 20-40% with 2 years )
4) Don't Buy on Credit ( I have made that mistake)
5) If the SL Government cares at all about CSE, let the state Funds starts buying into value shares.
This is the time for EPF to make killing if they buy at all time low prices and hold for longer term.
(Not like in 2010 when they buy highest and waste public money!)
6) Institutions, Funds and Banks/Companies needs to start buying Value shares step by step.
HEY INDIA IS 40% up.
USA is 20% up even with Fed hikes.
Almost all Asia markets are up ( except Singapore which our government now seems to follow I guess)
But CSE is trading at PE of 10, PBV of 1.2 and dividend yield of 3.2%.
No one cares.
We complain and add further to lower the numbers.
WONDER OF ASIA.
All we see is a Hallmark of a Nation filled with people
a) who complain and constantly think selfishly
b) do nothing to help but just wait for other to do things for them
c) do not try to get the 100 Pots of Gold but point to the pot of Cow dung
d) have no team spirit and respect/courtesy for fellow citizens ( or not sure even themselves )
WE CAN COLLECTIVE STOP THIS MESS IF WE WANT TO.
LET STOP CLOWNING AROUND.
WAKE UP ...
a) GOVERNMENT (WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO SERVE PUBLIC)
b) CSE/SEC OFFICALS WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO MAKE CSE BETTER
c) INVESTORS
d) TRADERS
e) HIGH NETWORTH PEOPLE
Don't dig out own grave and blame another!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally
PS : I don't care for people who are blind followers of Former President or Current President/PM.
I have seen and this time too I see people with Political bias spreading negativity to bring CSE down.
It happened during Mara time ( I/we fought against it) and it is happen now too.
Don't shoot ourselves in the foot by ruining CSE trying to support your political Idols.
Those who try to bring CSE down based on politics , note the Common facts I see in all of these politicians.
a) All of them care about only themselves and their want to be in power than worrying about
the country or the suffering citizen
b) all of them are in the lists of richest people in Sri Lanka
http://www.asiantribune.com/node/91612
( hope there are none here to argue that this report is false completely and
they all are just like us trying to make ends meet )
I think for once people should stop going shopping for political parties and think collectively
about how to build Sri Lanka Lanka/CSE.
All developed nations including Japan built on National spirit.
Not selfishness or worshiping the wrong idols.
Btw, now that the market started to move up a bit , start worrying and start selling
your valuable shares ( some of which still has room fundamentally to run 50-100% maybe).
Then we can drag ASI down again , blame others and complain again to keep this stinking falling cycle going.
Fact 1 :
ASI was 7500+ in Aug 2015 !
Nearly 3 years later , with many companies improving asset values,
ASI is 20% down ( when it should be up) and has nearly hit 6000!
ASI is now back at same stage ( 6000+) as March 2016 !
What the hell ? Pettah market must be a better investment than CSE right?
Fact 2:
Do you know CSE is one of the most attractive Frontier markets in the world right now based on multiples it is trading at? CSE is trading at PE of around 10, PBV of 1.2+ and dividend yield of 3.2%.
Is it worth to invest at CSE?
Title question and latter question, am sure are in most investor's minds right?
To be honest I too was getting dejected about CSE as it has been a real waste of
Investment over the last few years.
Even putting in an FD would bring easy 12%.
At CSE except for Dividends ( which by now are taxed at 14% shamefully make things worse)
and occasional tiny rallies which will reverse eventually ( why?), there is no justice for even
the strong Gems of Shares right? We only see our investment going down and down ?
I always wondered why CSE had so many Traders/short term people compared to Investors.
I think I now know the answer why this happens.
a) most people who entered CSE forums were people who are new to CSE and
only saw the extreme volatility of CSE within the few years of presence
b) many like to make quick money and consider patient investing a waste of opportunity anyway.
So with a volatile CSE they will ask why hold shares to lose money when we can "Anna and Panna"
Well the sad fact is there weren't too many Anna Panna trading ops even for past few years!
EVERYONE is in the soup !
Though I can't blame anyone who turns styles due to the volatility, I have to point out
this issue is a chicken and egg story.
CSE is so volatile as too many people panic and sell, even value gems for ridiculous prices.
If all held their valuable shares, there will be No one to sell. Then Buyer demand will naturally increase.
But when valuable shares are at ridiculous prices, some will then ask why should we care about
Fundamentals/Value shares which don't move ?
See Chicken and Egg story again.
When we create a negative market , the greedy , now places their buy orders lower and lower.
ASI goes lower and lower.
(Btw the most of the greediest people in the world are usually the people who have the money.
Usually people with little are more generous ( and one can find truth in what I say in real life too right?)
See the cycle?
We can easily blame the Government ( which I do too as they really have let CSE rot )
or the World, but do you see How WE too contribute to this mess !!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now lets start some Analysis ...
How is CSE performing compared to other Asian Countries ?
Note the Chart.
India VS Sri Lanka!
India ( Sensex) has gone up by about 40% since 2016.
YES India has gone up 40%.
Indian Market PE is over 20 from what I recall.
But CSE market PE is cheap at about 10. ( in 2011 PE was 25+ when everyone
was thinking to sell their Ati kukulas to buy shares)
But even at this very cheap rate CSE is down 20% . Say what? WHY really?
Even Bangladesh ( DSEX) which is considered a messier country than CSE on corruption,
is so much better than CSE ! Almost all Asian market from Pakistan to Japan has been up taking
from 10-40% considering the a period of 2 years from 2016 !
Do you see what is happening at CSE is simply SHAMEFUL and UNWARRANTED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let look at the USA/World situation and how it affects CSE
USA share market ( Dow Jones index) was up by about 30% since Trump came
into power ( Jan 2017).
Even with constant FED rate hikes ( FED Reserve is the counter part to SL Central Bank),
still index is 20% up from Jan 2017! Yes Interest Rate hikes makes stock markets lethargic,
but it doesn't have to happen like Sri Lanka. Actually in SL, interest rate has been cut recently.
But anyway our CSE likes to go reverse 20% ! Wonder of Asia.
When US interest rate go up, many of the big fund in US can pull money out of foreign shares.
It has world effect. Yes. But how does that related to tiny CSE?
As far as I saw , there has really not been % wise massive Foreign selling at the tiny CSE
( except for LLUB which has special problems I discussed before) .
In Summary:
FED rate hike and world impact is not much at tiny CSE.
HEY WAIT ! But even if this is a world issue, then how come India/Bangladesh shares market up by 40%/20% . Political uncertainty? What about other nations in ASIA with Political issues. Why are their stock market up? Currency depreciation? India and many Asian currencies depreciated. Why only CSE down by 20% from 2015?
WE SRI LANKANS ARE ROYALLY DIGGING OUR OWN GRAVES at CSE AS FAR AS I SEE.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DIGGING GRAVE?
1) most was mentioned in the below post
http://investorsentiment.forumotion.net/t10483-hello-and-cse#87308
2) now more was mentioned in this post
HERE is a QUESTION FOR YOU ?
How come EPF bought GRAN over Rs 200 in 2010, but now not interested in it at Rs 60 even.
Why is NAV Rs 290 and PE of 6 share ( APLA) trading at Rs 90 with no interest?
Why are so many shares trading at 50% asset Value and nobody is interested?
Why is Dividend 14% share trading at the lowest price I seen in 3 years !
Hey but wait!
So it is rupee depreciation? World impact?
Hey India has them too then!
India is up 40% and market PE is over 20.
Our shares are trading at PE of 4-5 ! But down 20% from 2015.
CSE Investors/Traders doesn't care , except to complain and worry.
Government doesn't care , except to do nothing.
I guess we are waiting for Foreigner to tell us to stop selling our valuable shares
and come buy from us right ? Our Story since our Independance!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lets look at some CSE Charts/ Techicnals
BAD :
By Last week, CSE RSI /MACD numbers were the lowest seen in many years !
Yes Coppock is negative, a bad sign for investors.
ADX was trending up in negative market.
Most indicators I saw were negative still.
Can this bad be turned good?
YES! IF WE WANT TO !!!!
RSI /MACD being lowest is very good sign for some real reversal IF WE WANT IT ?
MACD crossing can happen within another day of continuous green.
RSI can go over 30 again with another day of green.
ADX reversing trend ( it has started already with last green days) is a good.
Bollinger will close his mouth with another few days of green ( if we want the green without selling that is )
ps : There were several Technical people always stating that Charts never lie and they are always accurate.
I think during the last 12 or so months none of such came to put out their firm predictions. They disappear when market is in trouble (appear only when market is in boom). I think these predictions are more useful if they can do it to help public when in distress. Not when market is positive and every share is going up. (No this is not attacking anyone but merely stating a FACT here. No one should take personal )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
How to continue the trend and reverse this negative market?
1) Stop freaking selling specially your Valuable shares at ridiculous prices.( some are at 5 year low)
You will get poorer due to no patience and some cunning person will get richer thank to you.
2) Stop spreading unnecessary market negativity for your selfish gains.
Political uncertainty my foot. If so why has LFIN being not effected and declared Rs 11 dividend
and their assets are ever improving. I saw even GREG declared the highest dividend of their life.
Why has COMB, NDB, SAMP and many other companies performing so well?
3) Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity.
How about letting these foreigner do what they are doing in
India and Bangladesh ( somehow those market are up 20-40% with 2 years )
4) Don't Buy on Credit ( I have made that mistake)
5) If the SL Government cares at all about CSE, let the state Funds starts buying into value shares.
This is the time for EPF to make killing if they buy at all time low prices and hold for longer term.
(Not like in 2010 when they buy highest and waste public money!)
6) Institutions, Funds and Banks/Companies needs to start buying Value shares step by step.
HEY INDIA IS 40% up.
USA is 20% up even with Fed hikes.
Almost all Asia markets are up ( except Singapore which our government now seems to follow I guess)
But CSE is trading at PE of 10, PBV of 1.2 and dividend yield of 3.2%.
No one cares.
We complain and add further to lower the numbers.
WONDER OF ASIA.
All we see is a Hallmark of a Nation filled with people
a) who complain and constantly think selfishly
b) do nothing to help but just wait for other to do things for them
c) do not try to get the 100 Pots of Gold but point to the pot of Cow dung
d) have no team spirit and respect/courtesy for fellow citizens ( or not sure even themselves )
WE CAN COLLECTIVE STOP THIS MESS IF WE WANT TO.
LET STOP CLOWNING AROUND.
WAKE UP ...
a) GOVERNMENT (WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO SERVE PUBLIC)
b) CSE/SEC OFFICALS WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO MAKE CSE BETTER
c) INVESTORS
d) TRADERS
e) HIGH NETWORTH PEOPLE
Don't dig out own grave and blame another!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally
PS : I don't care for people who are blind followers of Former President or Current President/PM.
I have seen and this time too I see people with Political bias spreading negativity to bring CSE down.
It happened during Mara time ( I/we fought against it) and it is happen now too.
Don't shoot ourselves in the foot by ruining CSE trying to support your political Idols.
Those who try to bring CSE down based on politics , note the Common facts I see in all of these politicians.
a) All of them care about only themselves and their want to be in power than worrying about
the country or the suffering citizen
b) all of them are in the lists of richest people in Sri Lanka
http://www.asiantribune.com/node/91612
( hope there are none here to argue that this report is false completely and
they all are just like us trying to make ends meet )
I think for once people should stop going shopping for political parties and think collectively
about how to build Sri Lanka Lanka/CSE.
All developed nations including Japan built on National spirit.
Not selfishness or worshiping the wrong idols.
Btw, now that the market started to move up a bit , start worrying and start selling
your valuable shares ( some of which still has room fundamentally to run 50-100% maybe).
Then we can drag ASI down again , blame others and complain again to keep this stinking falling cycle going.
Last edited by slstock on Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:31 pm; edited 8 times in total
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