Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

I think we should allow Jiggy to explain his stance.
Over to you.

yellow knife wrote:Ying-Yang

yes... this is the expectation


Now justify that with 2011 and 2012 of Sri Lanka.

Bro,

I thought you were a long term player.
Take at least 10 year span.

You cannot judge the size of the elephant by catching just a hair of its tail,

Very good Ying Yang

now the discussion is on right track.

yes , longterm players are happy with this kind of opportunities .

Even good long term players like Merryl J would find these opportunities and take actions.

The argument you was developing is valid.

GDP affects market.

Yes... but not always... There are many other factors. That is why I took 2011 and 12 where there was reversing of the expected direction.

yellow knife wrote:
+
+. There are many other factors.
+
.

Oh Yes.

Global Oil prices should be in some corner of you other factors list I am sure mate.

Yes... Oil price is another factor

Gold is another with inverse relationship

Interest rate is another with inverse relationship

Ok... Now lets get back to the argument SLS was trying  to explain.

Yes,,, no doubts many factors like crude oil, gold, interest, GDP show positive or negative relationships.

Yet when market is in Bull Phase some try to promote it further and further up.

When market enter in to Bear Phase some try to demote it further and further down.

***********************************

CSE has become attractive.

When its attractive there are no efforts to show how its worthy to buy now.

YK, after all you were able to steer the discussion on some professional footing. Thanks.

GDP VS CSE

There was a claim that the reason CSE was going down was due to lower economic growth. Below I include a rather professional report/study done by Jupiter Capital Partners on the same topic.  Last page (naturally)  has their  conclusion whether GDP does or does not affect CSE much and if not why.





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks SLS. This is a very professional study which answers many questions raised here.

Thanks SLS.

Ela noh!

So the Ultimate conclusion of Indika Bro is; "+++stocks may

not be a good way to preserve wealth

in the longer term"

Aha!!

Are we in the same page guys?

The article suggest only fools will invest in CSE but opportunistic traders might gain something.


Kith Uncle!
It says you are only fooled by yr gut feeling!!

Ha Ha Ha, hitherto it has not failed me and being a doubting Thomas all my life, not only I doubt such predictions and their so-called Academic credentials too.
Let's see who will have the Last Laugh Jiggy  

Yin-Yang wrote:
Kith Uncle!
It says you are only fooled by yr gut feeling!!

By the way, who is this trigger-happy Ass here?

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Ha Ha Ha, hitherto it has not failed me and being a doubting Thomas all my life, not only I doubt such predictions and their so-called Academic credentials too."  

What predictions are you referring to ?
Jupiter Capital articles main focus is on studying GDP vs ASI  and whether it
has any effect on CSE based on data.  

That why posted it for educational purposes as there was a claim
CSE went down due to GDP growth being down.

YY, has picked one sentence from the article ( which I don't also know why JCP had to throw in there) and is commenting on such.

But main focus should remains on  GDP  vs ASI.

A present STATUS Update CSE (on possible  ASI ) is made below.

https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t983p1025-cse-l-where-are-we-heading#89532

I know many like to know about market direction ( to consider to hold or sell shares in short term)

So the update above is made objectively  comparing/updating the technical status mentioned on July 13th.

Downturn as an opportunity
“We thought the world was going to end in 1997,” recalls Head of Investments at Softlogic Holdings Niloo Jayatilake, then a rookie fund manager. That year, capital fleeing the East Asian economic crisis wiped out half of the Colombo Stock Exchange’s value.

“Around that time, a senior fund manager told me, ‘buy when foreigners sell, and sell when foreigners buy’,” Jayatilake says. It was an important lesson to the young fund manager. Don’t be swayed by sentiment. Accept market cycles. Embrace downturns. The last five years have been good to global equity markets, but not in Sri Lanka.

The MSCI Frontier Markets Index gained 32.32% in 2017. MSCI’s emerging markets index grew nearly 24%. Sri Lanka’s All Share Index gained 3% that year, declining more than 2% during the first six months of 2018. But Jayatilake sees opportunity.

Sri Lankan equities are trading at a 12-month trailing price to the earnings multiple, also called the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, of 10 times. This means investors are willing to pay Rs10 for each rupee in earnings a company makes. This valuation is less than the 10-year average of 14.9 times. For Jayatilake, low valuations are a good sign.

In 2009, the market was trading at an earnings multiple of 16.6 times, and a higher 25.2 times the following year.

“Today’s equity market PE is at the lowest point, so why are we acting like it’s the end of the world? If we’re not investing now, we’re wasting an opportunity,” she says.

1“It is a good time to invest for the long term if you can back your decisions with proper research into the companies. It may not be a good short-term strategy, but these are ideal conditions for longer-term gains.”

“The power to hold is key to success in this business. High-net-worth individuals are amazing because they have held on to key blocks of shares through all the cycles and built their wealth this way,” Jayatilake says. “In most cases, they’ve been more successful than institutional investors who have the money and staying power, but not the discipline.”

After the 1997 East Asia crisis, it took nearly five years for the Sri Lanka equities market to recover, crossing 1,000 points in June 2003. “That was not the first time the world ended,” Jayatilake says, “It ended again in 2008.

“That year, the global financial crisis that unfolded in 2007 cut the value of Sri Lankan stocks by half. In 2012, equities lost more than 40% in value when regulators began looking into market manipulation after the benchmark index reached a month-end peak of 7,800 points in 2011.It took three more years for the index to again breach the 7,000 mark in 2015, but has since declined 11.2% to 6,218 points by mid-June 2018.

“I’ve seen much worse,” Jayatilake says, laughing. “The economy is not in disarray as sentiment suggests; it’s just that people don’t believe anymore,” she says. “However, I am excited about the current period. As a professional fund manager, I embrace these kinds of situations to build the portfolio.”

According to published figures, Softlogic Life Insurance has a life fund of Rs10 billion with 20% in equities—under the 40% maximum limit allowed by regulation—a decent allocation for any investor. In 2017, the entire insurance industry portfolio had less than 10% in stocks.

Thanks Al. Its a good one.

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:
+
+
+
+ Jiggy  

+
+
+

Ayyo Big Bro.

Let Jiggy Bro be Jiggy

Let me be me.

If you really insist, you may call me Jig-Jagg

Yin-Yang wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:
+
+
+
+ Jiggy  

+
+
+

Ayyo Big Bro.

Let Jiggy Bro be Jiggy

Let me be me.

If you really insist, you may call me Jig-Jagg

While you"ll are at it, for out of topic weekend fun, here are a few more names to consider

a) Jiggy Yang ( sounds like a horny Chinese)
b) Jiggying with Yin ( a very horny Chinese)
c) Yin Saurus  ( a "recently discovered" chinese Dinosaur)
d) Jagged Yin  ( you know what it sound like)
e) Jigme Yang ( seems to be related to Bhutan Royalty - Jigme Singye Wangchuck )

Foreign Selling/Buying

For those who are worried about Foreign selling

1) So far to date in this year  :

Foreign Selling is only Rs 2.52 Bil.
( That about US$16 million. Some billionaires will laugh at that amount am sure)


Quiz : How much was the Foreign selling in 2011?



2) For past week :

Net Foreign Inflow/Buying : Rs 23 million

Thanks SLS. As I have observed most foreign selling is for booking profits not in panic. At the same time they continue buying.

slstock wrote:
Foreign Selling/Buying

For those who are worried about Foreign selling

1) So far to date in this year  :

Foreign Selling is only Rs 2.52 Bil.
( That about US$16 million. Some billionaires will laugh at that amount am sure)
 

Quiz : How much was the Foreign selling in 2011?




2) For past week :

Net Foreign Inflow/Buying : Rs 23 million

Rs.(19,039.2) Millions

https://cdn.cse.lk/pdf/CSE_Annual_Report_2011.pdf