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Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

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Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?  - Page 5 Empty Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by chutiputha on Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:51 pm

There are pros and cons in this situation also.
So without thinking about the fault or who is responsible for this situation, i would like to encourage you to talk about advantages of this situation.
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Post by slstock on Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:52 pm

Thanks for taking time to answer a question which will show the reality and keep the discussion going.


serene wrote:
slstock wrote:
Foreign Selling/Buying


For those who are worried about Foreign selling

1) So far to date in this year  :

Foreign Selling is only Rs 2.52 Bil.
( That about US$16 million. Some billionaires will laugh at that amount am sure)
 

Quiz : How much was the Foreign selling in 2011?




2) For past week :

Net Foreign Inflow/Buying : Rs 23 million


Rs.(19,039.2) Millions

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Post by serene on Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:40 pm

slstock wrote:Thanks for taking time to answer a question which will show the reality and keep the discussion going.


serene wrote:
slstock wrote:
Foreign Selling/Buying


For those who are worried about Foreign selling

1) So far to date in this year  :

Foreign Selling is only Rs 2.52 Bil.
( That about US$16 million. Some billionaires will laugh at that amount am sure)
 

Quiz : How much was the Foreign selling in 2011?




2) For past week :

Net Foreign Inflow/Buying : Rs 23 million


Rs.(19,039.2) Millions

SLS, correct answer neda?

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Post by slstock on Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:45 am

Serene, I believe you are right. I recall it was around ( bit less than) Rs 20 Billion selling in 2011.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



How about someone helping to search and add info here?


Which are the Top selling shares this year so far?

Then we can discussion whether it is a world issue, CSE issue or it is particular share's issue.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anyway Bottom line is still Foreign selling in

2011 was Rs 19 billion
2018 Rs 2.52 Bil to date !


Anyone  worried a lot  still ?

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Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:55 pm

Thanks SLS. I remember Kith was posting daily foreign buying/selling figures earlier.
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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:45 pm

https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8333-making-sense-of-nothing?highlight=making+sense+of
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks SLS. I remember Kith was posting daily foreign buying/selling figures earlier.

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Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:40 pm

Kith, its time to update your thread.
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Post by spw19721 on Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:24 pm

Thanks for the update sir...
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:42 am

Looking through the side mirror one year back;
it's good way of learning;
learning by words of wisdom;
learning by mistakes;
learning by experience;
learning by random comments;

Here are some collections of both words of wisdom and random comments;


slstock wrote:What the hell is wrong with CSE?



Fact 1 :

ASI was 7500+ in Aug 2015 !
Nearly 3 years later , with many companies improving asset values,  
ASI  is 20% down ( when it should be up) and has nearly hit 6000!
ASI is now back at same stage ( 6000+) as March 2016 !

What the hell ?  Pettah  market must be a better investment than CSE right?


To be honest I too was getting dejected about CSE as it has been a real waste of
Investment over the last few years.
Even putting in an FD would bring easy 12%.  



+
+
I think I now know  the answer why this happens.

a) most people who entered CSE forums were people who are new to CSE  and
  only saw the extreme volatility of CSE within the few years of presence

b) many like to make quick money and consider patient investing a waste of opportunity anyway.  
  So with a volatile CSE they will ask why hold shares to lose money  when we can "Anna and Panna"
  Well the sad fact is there weren't too many Anna Panna trading ops even for past few years!
  EVERYONE  is in the soup !


But when valuable shares are at ridiculous prices,
+
+


In Summary:

FED rate hike and world impact is not much at tiny CSE
.




HEY WAIT ! But even if this is a world issue, then  how come India/Bangladesh shares market up by 40%/20% .
+
+




+
+
RSI can go over 30 again with another day of green.

ADX reversing trend ( it has started already with last green days)  is a good.
Bollinger will close his mouth with another few days of green ( if we want the green without selling that is )


ps : There were several Technical people always stating that Charts never  lie and they are always accurate.
I think during the last 12 or so months none of such came to put out their firm predictions. They disappear when market is in trouble (appear only when market is  in boom).   I think these predictions are more useful if they can do it to help public when in distress.  Not when market is positive and every share is going up. (No this is not attacking anyone but merely stating a  FACT  here. No one should  take personal  )

+
+

1) Stop freaking selling specially your Valuable shares at ridiculous  prices.( some are at 5 year low)
  You will get poorer due to no patience and some cunning person will get richer thank to you.

2) Stop spreading unnecessary market negativity for your selfish gains.
  Political uncertainty my foot. If so why has LFIN being not effected and declared Rs 11 dividend
  and their assets are ever improving. I saw even GREG declared the highest dividend of their life.
  Why has COMB, NDB, SAMP and many other companies performing so well?

3) Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity.

  How about letting these foreigner do what they are doing in
  India and Bangladesh ( somehow those market are up 20-40% with 2 years )

+

+
+
4) Don't Buy on Credit ( I have made that mistake)  

+
+
+
5) If the SL Government cares at all about CSE, let the state Funds starts buying into value shares.
  This is the time for EPF to make killing if they buy at all time low prices and hold for longer term.
  (Not like in 2010 when they buy highest and waste public money!)  



Btw, now that the market started to move up  a bit , start worrying and start selling
your valuable  shares ( some of which still has room fundamentally to run 50-100% maybe).

Then we can drag ASI down again , blame others and complain again to keep this stinking falling cycle going.



One thing I really liked in SLS's post is "Don't buy on credit"

Another thing we could have learnt is; being empathetic with investors who have already in paper losses and asking them not to be panic will have only short term soothing effect. The reality is reality regardless of which glasses we might wear.



spw19721 wrote:Thank You SLS sir for your valuable contribution.This Time I didnt go panic (Actually no need to) as I was in 2015 . Im happy to say I got succeed in averaging down LFIN (118) , REXP (170) , SAMP (290) .

In addition,collected CIND(30) ,HDFC (27), CRL (30) in small quantities.only GRAN(78) & PLC (16.5) shows some relative loss.  

But If recall in 2015-2016, I suffered around 30%,-50% losses holding SFL (22) ,BOGA (28),CHOT(30),TYRE(80) etc.. Shocked Shocked  .

+
+

If CSE dip more , for me no need to panic coz I have 9-10% return  giving cash cows which will give more in coming years. I can utilize those dividends for risky trades .If I lose,no heart attacks , still can sleep well.

Hats off for all experienced writers who taught me to be patient like the ants among locusts.

SpW Kid, are you happy with averaging down? Have learnt anything new?
Getting panic is good or bad?


yellow knife wrote:Yes... Oil price is another factor

+
+

Gold is another with inverse relationship

+
+

Interest rate is another with inverse relationship
+
+

***********************************

CSE has become attractive.
+



YK bro,

Is it because oli prices the market moves or the other way round?
or, is there some common factors behind both?

If CSE was attractive one year ago, what do you call it now?

+++++

What has happened to those ridiculous prices now; have become more ridiculous?

Does the market price follows the share value or the other way round?


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Post by CK on Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:54 am

Very Happy
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Post by slstock on Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:08 am

Yin-Yang wrote:Looking through the side mirror one year back;
it's good way of learning;
learning by words of wisdom;
learning by mistakes;
learning by experience;
learning by random comments;

Here are some collections of both words of wisdom and random comments;


slstock wrote:What the hell is wrong with CSE?



Fact 1 :

ASI was 7500+ in Aug 2015 !
Nearly 3 years later , with many companies improving asset values,  
ASI  is 20% down ( when it should be up) and has nearly hit 6000!
ASI is now back at same stage ( 6000+) as March 2016 !

What the hell ?  Pettah  market must be a better investment than CSE right?


To be honest I too was getting dejected about CSE as it has been a real waste of
Investment over the last few years.
Even putting in an FD would bring easy 12%.  



+
+
I think I now know  the answer why this happens.

a) most people who entered CSE forums were people who are new to CSE  and
  only saw the extreme volatility of CSE within the few years of presence

b) many like to make quick money and consider patient investing a waste of opportunity anyway.  
  So with a volatile CSE they will ask why hold shares to lose money  when we can "Anna and Panna"
  Well the sad fact is there weren't too many Anna Panna trading ops even for past few years!
  EVERYONE  is in the soup !


But when valuable shares are at ridiculous prices,
+
+


In Summary:

FED rate hike and world impact is not much at tiny CSE
.




HEY WAIT ! But even if this is a world issue, then  how come India/Bangladesh shares market up by 40%/20% .
+
+




+
+
RSI can go over 30 again with another day of green.

ADX reversing trend ( it has started already with last green days)  is a good.
Bollinger will close his mouth with another few days of green ( if we want the green without selling that is )


ps : There were several Technical people always stating that Charts never  lie and they are always accurate.
I think during the last 12 or so months none of such came to put out their firm predictions. They disappear when market is in trouble (appear only when market is  in boom).   I think these predictions are more useful if they can do it to help public when in distress.  Not when market is positive and every share is going up. (No this is not attacking anyone but merely stating a  FACT  here. No one should  take personal  )

+
+

1) Stop freaking selling specially your Valuable shares at ridiculous  prices.( some are at 5 year low)
  You will get poorer due to no patience and some cunning person will get richer thank to you.

2) Stop spreading unnecessary market negativity for your selfish gains.
  Political uncertainty my foot. If so why has LFIN being not effected and declared Rs 11 dividend
  and their assets are ever improving. I saw even GREG declared the highest dividend of their life.
  Why has COMB, NDB, SAMP and many other companies performing so well?

3) Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity.

  How about letting these foreigner do what they are doing in
  India and Bangladesh ( somehow those market are up 20-40% with 2 years )

+

+
+
4) Don't Buy on Credit ( I have made that mistake)  

+
+
+
5) If the SL Government cares at all about CSE, let the state Funds starts buying into value shares.
  This is the time for EPF to make killing if they buy at all time low prices and hold for longer term.
  (Not like in 2010 when they buy highest and waste public money!)  



Btw, now that the market started to move up  a bit , start worrying and start selling
your valuable  shares ( some of which still has room fundamentally to run 50-100% maybe).

Then we can drag ASI down again , blame others and complain again to keep this stinking falling cycle going.



One thing I really liked in SLS's post is "Don't buy on credit"

Another thing we could have learnt is; being empathetic with investors who have already in paper losses and asking them not to be panic will have only short term soothing effect. The reality is reality regardless of which glasses we might wear.



Here are few more realities for you.

1) People at CSE have  maintained LFIN  price around Rs 115-130 even when CSE dropped from 7500 to 5300.  How and Why? LFIN keeps earning  better and better and it value is builiding every year. Dividend is around 10% now. ( it will be higher next year unless something crazy happens)  . Are there other shares like such?  

2) So called Gems are always buried in the dirt with no price tag or value ( until found by someone. That someone is a Human  not any other species)  .

3) Share market is driven by PEOPLE .  Share market is NOT drive up or down by a Computer or by itself. When it goes up we drive it. When it goes down we drive it ( we mean humans not aliens) .

4) Either for making  market up or down we humans find reasons/excuses for it being so.

5) We can simply ask questions or spent time  to find some  answers and help many suffering.  ( right or wrong is subjective depending on your thinking. )


Btw Ying Yang, you should have participated on a thread which is affecting the whole nation  and CSE  ( Easter sunday thread) . Your input on a thread like that matters .

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Post by yellow knife on Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:52 am

Oh Ying-Yang, just saw your post.

Certain shares are very attractive now. We have gone through long bear phases and the strategy was to collect slowly.

Its repeating again. What was attractive has become more attractive.

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Post by Yin-Yang on Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:23 am

yellow knife wrote:Oh Ying-Yang, just saw your post.

Certain shares are very attractive now. We have gone through long bear phases and the strategy was to collect slowly.

Its repeating again. What was attractive has become more attractive.

So it is a blind collection strategy?
Blindly collecting attractive shares not seeing that they would become very attractive.

So you're another kind of speculator?
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Post by yellow knife on Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:42 am

I think I have answered this question earlier.

So you're another kind of speculator?

If I am a speculator I should have the strategy to sell at high with capital gains .

For me capital gains is an option, which I may hardly use.

For me shares become attractive when Dividend return is higher than the FD rate. Further I can reinvest the dividend to expand further.

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Post by xmart on Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:14 am

Chaos and Order is the nature of every market. I won't see this as anyone's fault but circumstances which we signed up for when investing in immature markets like CSE. even NASDAQ is not immune to risk factors.

but the upside potential is tremendous for CSE despite all the odd. but timeline is expanding again and again.

one should ask themselves that whether they are investors or traders. if answer is latter one, you need to find more volatile market than this for trading. if you look for 10-20 years then CSE is the best place to buy.

and i agree with YK about DY as well.
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Post by slstock on Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:50 am

xmart wrote:Chaos and Order is the nature of every market. I won't see this as anyone's fault but circumstances which we signed up for when investing in immature markets like CSE. even NASDAQ is not immune to risk factors.


Partly true , but do you really think all this is no one fault ?



When our neighbors in Asia ( which are mostly immature markets too ) had their runs and doing much better than CSE, there has got to be reasons why CSE companies
are trading at PE of 3 even after paying dividend of 10% and ROE of 20-30 % each year. Overall market ( CSE) running is one thing. But individual company share prices not improving for multi years even with increasing growth and value ( not on manipulation) is another thing .


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Post by xmart on Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:18 pm

what i observed is

1. big local money stayed away from the market and divert their money to real estate (apartment) development or bulk purchases of such high end apartments.

2. foreign investors lost faith in SL as bond scam and lack of monitory stimulation/ planning.

3. with the absent of liquidity providers to the market, CSE is stagnated and events like April 21 led small investors to sell their red portfolios and leave market.

4. downfall of SAMP, JKH, MELS etc had cause heavy burden on overall sentiment.

well, we can blame on anything or everything for the current state of CSE. there are parties who are responsible for all 4 points listed above. but as individual investors, we don't have power to turn around the market. but it will turn around eventually. when it does, what im intended to do is to be in the right side with right price.
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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:26 pm

xmart wrote:
+
+
+
what im intended to do is to be in the right side with right price.

So you pray the all mighty market god to keep you in the right side at the right time?
Or have any other means to do so?

If yes, how has it been going so far?
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Post by PANTOMATH on Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:28 pm

Yin-Yang wrote:Looking through the side mirror one year back;
it's good way of learning;
learning by words of wisdom;
learning by mistakes;
learning by experience;
learning by random comments;

Here are some collections of both words of wisdom and random comments;

I like your comments YY,
No one can exactly predict prices of shares for a given period.

Investors should learn the difference between price and the value.What SLS was talking about is value of a share.You are talking about price of a share.Those are two different things dude.

The discrepancy of the two values is the edge value investors are looking for.
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Post by ruwan326 on Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:44 pm

"Investors should learn the difference between price and the value.What SLS was talking about is value of a share.You are talking about price of a share.Those are two different things dude."
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I like to put a small example about price & value alien

While picking a hotel to stay in booking.com I found club waskaduwa @ 11 000/= + Tax(for 2 with break fast) , but I picked Blue beach 6669/= with out tax(for 2 with break fast).

After I checked in we found that bath room was dirty and when we order lunch fish was off (spoiled) and mutton curry was not cooked properly and when I had a bite blood was coming out from the meat pale

Then I complained, management apologized, but the chef didn't apologies or admit.Then I booked club waskaduwa again and checked out after 3 hours from Blue beach.  

Price vs value, when picking you need to learn it by the hard way Wink
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:12 pm

PANTOMATH wrote:
+
+
No one can exactly predict prices of shares for a given period.

Investors should learn the difference between price and the value.What SLS was talking about is value of a share.You are talking about price of a share.Those are two different things dude.

The discrepancy of the two values is the edge value investors are looking for.

No one can predict price unless you're the big boss control the market.

++
So, what you say is;
Value is something you perceive
Whereas;
Price is something others in the market has perceived

That leads to;
if you see a value higher than the market price, that means, you do not agree with the market.

That also leads to;
You do not agree with what they say 'market is always right'.

Is it the case?
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Post by yellow knife on Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:04 am

Good discussion friends... SLS, Ying Yang, Ruwan, Pantomath... thanks for contribution.

Lets take off sometime to look at how others have seen value and price.

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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:44 am

CSE is a different ball game altogether.
But visiting Hotels with bargain offers (When Foreigners stop coming) and buying from wayside vendors (Thinking that we would help them) are only helping CHEATERS to carry on with their cheating activities only. Shocked

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Post by serene on Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:52 pm

Scrutinise the wicket and play each ball at its merits.
It's all about the how you play the next ball. Nothing else counts.
True ths balls you faced earlier would have tamed you and you can percieve whats on offering, the wicket might be easing off after the sun shine; and the bowlers might have get tired.
After having battling hard and whithered away the moisture and the Swing of the ball, play the best possible shot you can  ever play according to your game plan.Be it whether Test, One Day or T 20.
But keep it mind that It's all sbout the next ball and the shot you play.

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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:21 pm

serene wrote:Scrutinise the wicket and play each ball at its merits.
It's all about the how you play the next ball. Nothing else counts.
True ths balls you faced earlier would have tamed you and you can percieve whats on offering, the wicket might be easing off after the sun shine; and the bowlers might have get tired.
After having battling hard and whithered away the moisture and the Swing of the ball, play the best possible shot you can  ever play according to your game plan.Be it whether Test, One Day or T 20.
But keep it mind that It's all sbout the next ball and the shot you play.

That's way Bro!
and

You better leave most of the balls without playing.
Which ball to play is the sense you have to develop.
and
to have balls to play the ball when it matters.

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