The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans



Join the forum, it's quick and easy

The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.
The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

Please send an email to contact.lankaninvestor@gmail.com if you face any technical difficulties when posting

Search

 
 

Display results as :
 

 

Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics

» CIFC Dumps to Expand Your Possibilities to Pass Your Exam
It's Maths EmptyFri Jul 19, 2024 10:30 am by faithhharris

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 20, 2024 11:31 am by Hawk Eye

» Sri Lanka plans to allow tourists from August, no mandatory quarantine
It's Maths EmptyWed Sep 13, 2023 12:16 pm by lauryfriese

» When Will It Be Safe To Invest In The Stock Market Again?
It's Maths EmptyWed Apr 19, 2023 6:41 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Dividend Announcements
It's Maths EmptyWed Apr 12, 2023 5:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» MAINTENANCE NOTICE / නඩත්තු දැනුම්දීම
It's Maths EmptyThu Apr 06, 2023 3:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ඩොලර් මිලියනයක මුදල් සම්මානයක් සහ “ෆීල්ඩ්ස් පදක්කම” පිළිගැනීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කළ ගණිතඥයා
It's Maths EmptySun Apr 02, 2023 7:28 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» SEYB.N0000 (Seylan Bank PLC)
It's Maths EmptyThu Mar 30, 2023 9:25 am by yellow knife

» Here's what blind prophet Baba Vanga predicted for 2016 and beyond: It's not good
It's Maths EmptyThu Mar 30, 2023 9:25 am by HaeroMaero

» The Korean Way !
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 29, 2023 7:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» In the Meantime Within Our Shores!
It's Maths EmptyMon Mar 27, 2023 5:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What is Known as Dementia?
It's Maths EmptyFri Mar 24, 2023 10:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC (SLTL.N0000)
It's Maths EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 5:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» THE LANKA HOSPITALS CORPORATION PLC (LHCL.N0000)
It's Maths EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 5:10 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Equinox ( වසන්ත විෂුවය ) !
It's Maths EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 4:28 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» COMB.N0000 (Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 4:11 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» REXP.N0000 (Richard Pieris Exports PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 4:02 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» RICH.N0000 (Richard Pieris and Company PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 3:53 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Do You Have Computer Vision Syndrome?
It's Maths EmptySat Mar 18, 2023 7:36 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» LAXAPANA BATTERIES PLC (LITE.N0000)
It's Maths EmptyThu Mar 16, 2023 11:23 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What a Bank Run ?
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 15, 2023 5:33 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 15, 2023 4:27 pm by katesmith1304

» GLAS.N0000 (Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC)
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 15, 2023 7:45 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Cboe Volatility Index
It's Maths EmptyTue Mar 14, 2023 5:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» AHPL.N0000
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:46 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» TJL.N0000 (Tee Jey Lanka PLC.)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:43 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» CTBL.N0000 ( CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC (COMD. N.0000))
It's Maths EmptyFri Mar 10, 2023 4:43 pm by yellow knife

» Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
It's Maths EmptyFri Mar 10, 2023 1:47 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» CSD.N0000 (Seylan Developments PLC)
It's Maths EmptyFri Mar 10, 2023 10:38 am by yellow knife

» PLC.N0000 (People's Leasing and Finance PLC)
It's Maths EmptyThu Mar 09, 2023 8:02 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Bakery Products ?
It's Maths EmptyWed Mar 08, 2023 5:30 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» NTB.N0000 (Nations Trust Bank PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Mar 05, 2023 7:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Going South
It's Maths EmptySat Mar 04, 2023 10:47 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» When Seagulls Follow the Trawler
It's Maths EmptyThu Mar 02, 2023 10:22 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Re-activating
It's Maths EmptySat Feb 25, 2023 5:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» අපි තමයි හොඳටම කරේ !
It's Maths EmptyTue Feb 14, 2023 3:54 pm by ruwan326

» මේ අර් බුධය කිසිසේත්ම මා විසින් නිර්මාණය කල එකක් නොවේ
It's Maths EmptyTue Jan 03, 2023 6:43 pm by ruwan326

» SAMP.N0000 (Sampath Bank PLC)
It's Maths EmptyWed Nov 30, 2022 8:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» APLA.N0000 (ACL Plastics PLC)
It's Maths EmptyFri Nov 18, 2022 7:49 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» AVOID FALLING INTO ALLURING WEEKEND FAMILY PACKAGES.
It's Maths EmptyWed Nov 16, 2022 9:28 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Banks, Finance & Insurance Sector Chart
It's Maths EmptyTue Nov 15, 2022 5:26 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» VPEL.N0000 (Vallibel Power Erathna PLC)
It's Maths EmptySun Nov 13, 2022 12:15 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» DEADLY COCKTAIL OF ISLAND MENTALITY AND PARANOID PERSONALITY DISORDER MIX.
It's Maths EmptyMon Nov 07, 2022 6:36 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» WATA - Watawala
It's Maths EmptySat Nov 05, 2022 8:44 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
It's Maths EmptySat Nov 05, 2022 8:42 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Capital Trust Broker in difficulty?
It's Maths EmptyFri Oct 21, 2022 5:25 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» IS PIRATING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY A BOON OR BANE?
It's Maths EmptyThu Oct 20, 2022 10:13 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What Industry Would You Choose to Focus?
It's Maths EmptyTue Oct 11, 2022 6:39 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Should I Stick Around, or Should I Follow Others' Lead?
It's Maths EmptyTue Oct 11, 2022 9:07 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

4 posters

    It's Maths

    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°1

    It's Maths Empty It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:12 pm

    Mathematics is the root of many disciplines that we learn today. It is very important for us investors. Now we will slowly study history of maths. It may be useful for better evaluation. By now I understand many wants to predict future based on technicals and almost no-one wants to change the future after understanding the basics of TAs...The purpose of all quantitative methods is to understand what is happening around us and to form what we want than to be passive observers...


    ***************************************************************

    In 1654 , a time when the Renaissance was in full flow , the Chevalier de Mere, a French nobleman with a taste for gambling and mathematics, challenged the famed French mathematician Blaise Pascal to solve a puzzle.

    It's Maths Slide_5
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°2

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:17 pm

    The question was how to divide the stakes of an unfinished game of chance between two players when one of them is ahead.

    ****************************************

    It's Maths B6Y71As8SG8RAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC

    This problem is not alien to us , cricket fans...

    The Duckworth–Lewis method (often written as D/L method) is a mathematical formulation designed to calculate the target score for the team batting second in a limited overs cricket match interrupted by weather or other circumstances. It is generally accepted to be the most accurate method of setting a target score.

    Duckworth–Lewis method - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°3

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:20 pm

    Knowing who will win before the game finish, is a challenge created by two hundred years before by the monk Luca Paccioli...

    It's Maths Slide_5
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°4

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:23 pm

    Accounting students are really happy with the monk Luca Paccioli, as the is the founder of modern accounting of double entry system.

    Further Luca Paccioli tutored Leonardo Da Vinci in the multiplication tables.

    It's Maths The-only-3-metrics-that-matter-in-the-subscription-economy-7-638
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°5

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:28 pm

    One problem we face now , in today's world a man is good at only one thing... and like Mr. Hammer only knows to hammer a nail and paid for just doing that...Today we call Renaissance man for the people who are good at many things... so you can be good at music, arts, maths, languages , science and all simultaneously...

    ************************************

    It's Maths Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6q62tJbh058Apy1risoUKoOPIh8X5gxDkC53oLFqxlbrESv7y4g
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°6

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:33 pm

    Pascal turned for help to Pierre de Fermat, a lawyer who was also a brilliant mathematician. The outcome of their collaboration was intellectual dynamite.

    They discovered the theory of Probability.

    Their solution to Paccioli's puzzle meant that people could for the first time make decisions and forecast the future with the help of numbers...

    Dear TAs that is what you are doing...now

    **************************************

    It's Maths 07_probability_theory

    It's Maths 12probability-2-638


    Last edited by yellow knife on Thu May 26, 2016 4:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°7

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:40 pm

    I often find Xmart end up with few predictions on a future event (ASI) ... That's good..yet better provide us with probability of each happening....


    DateASI nowPredictWhenDate of EvalTrue/FalseRemarks
    24-May-166,556.365800-6700
    6380
    6250
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°8

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Thu May 26, 2016 3:49 pm

    At the time Pascal and Fermat made their breakthrough discovery world was experiencing a wave of innovation.

    By 1654 the roundness of earth was an established fact.

    Gunpowder which Chinese used for Displays are now used to dust castles.

    Artists became conversant with perspectives..

    Wealth was pouring into Europe..

    Amsterdam stock exchange was flourishing..and by 1630s they were experience Tulip Bubble burst, the first crazy commodity bubble ...and almost similar to how manipulators blow Stock Bubbles at CSE or elsewhere...

    https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t6435-bubbles?highlight=bubbles
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°9

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 7:23 am

    When we try to look at probability of an event taking place we consider the co-relations between variables. Plantation companies shares dropping during a time when the commodity ( which the sector produce) prices fall  , is expected.

    Yet the market is not always behaving in a predictable manner with transparent relationship among variables.

    Many variables affect than one independent and one dependent.

    The best example is GDP growth and growth of a Stock Market index. Theoretically there can no argument there should be a very positive co relationship between these two.

    Yet this is what happened in a market we all know..

    It's Maths Lead-3Q2011-GDP-Growth-Sri-Lanka

    So the market index should show a steep incline, yet this is what happened at CSE

    It's Maths Graph-10


    At a glance the 4th best GDP among emerging markets were among the worst performing Indices of the world. This is a rare situation.

    This makes things more complex.

    It is not GDP growth the independent variable affecting CSE. A manipulated bubble of 2011, SEC strict regulations like price bands, Expropriation Act passing in the parliament are other strong variables affected.

    Therefore it will be a very difficult task to grab all relevant variables, weight them and create mathematical formulas to forecast future...
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°10

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 7:30 am

    It's Maths Sri-lanka-stock-market-forecast


    We see lots of forecasts on future performance of CSE based on different charts...

    This thread is trying to understand the history of maths that made man to become accurate in predicting resulting less belief in gods as men began to understand that they are not passive objects but active role players who can change the future as they wish.

    *************************************************************


    [th]Forecast[/th][th]Actual[/th][th]Q2/16[/th][th]Q3/16[/th][th]Q4/16[/th][th]Q1/17[/th][th]2020[/th][th]Unit[/th]
    Stock Market 656962606070588057507980points
    Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) - was last predicted on Friday, May 27, 2016

    Source : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/stock-market/forecast

    *************************************************************

    Now the problem is are we passive enough to accept above figures or active enough to change the destiny ?

    Lets learn maths, economics and see...

    OK since above data is not clear I put them in an excel table...

    Column1LastQ2/16Q3/16Q4/16Q1/172020
    Currency14714915115215387.7
    Stock656962606070588057507980
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°11

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 8:45 am

    Back to Maths History

    Mathematicians used probability to evaluate things in other economic areas than allowing it to become a mere toy of gamblers.

    By 1725 mathematicians were competing one another in devising tables of life expediencies, and England government was financing itself through the sale of life annuities.

    Net result was flourishing Insurance Business in London.
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°12

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 8:49 am

    Sample...

    Today we select a sample to represent the entire population. Statistical sampling is useful in wine tasting, stock picking, as well as testing new drugs.

    In 1703 Gottried von Leibniz commented to the Swiss scientist and Mathematician Jacob Bernoulli that.. Nature has established patterns of originating in the return of events, but only for the most part..

    It prompted Bernoulli to invent the Law of Large Numbers and methods of statistical sampling.


    It's Maths Bernoulli-family-31-638
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°13

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 9:23 am

    In 1703, Abraham de Moivre suggested the structure of the normal distribution -also known as the normal curve- and discovered the concept of standard deviation.

    Together these two concepts make up what is popularly known as the Law of Averages and are essential ingredients of modern techniques for quantifying risk.

    It's Maths Slide_52
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°14

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 9:29 am

    Bell Shaped curve is seen as the represent of Normal Distribution.

    That means in a class room those who are very tall are less and those who are very short are or less and the majority stay closed to the average..

    The same bell shape is seen in Marketing as product life cycle (PLC)...

    It's Maths Normal-distrubution-large

    It's Maths LHl29NfmP9K+gvzrvRPJ4pnwrUZvzsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=

    It's Maths XAzSogAAAAASUVORK5CYII=
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°15

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 9:42 am

    Normal Distribution statistics are used by Rogers , another researcher on market acceptance of new products..

    It's Maths 2000px-Diffusion_of_ideas.svg


    It's Maths Maxresdefault
    • Back to top
    sanjulanka
    avatar
    sanjulanka


    Posts : 180
    Join date : 2015-10-29
    • Post n°16

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by sanjulanka Fri May 27, 2016 10:00 am

    yellow knife wrote:It's Maths Sri-lanka-stock-market-forecast


    We see lots of forecasts on future performance of CSE based on different charts...

    This thread is trying to understand the history of maths that made man to become accurate in predicting resulting less belief in gods as men began to understand that they are not passive objects but active role players who can change the future as they wish.

    *************************************************************


    [th]Forecast[/th][th]Actual[/th][th]Q2/16[/th][th]Q3/16[/th][th]Q4/16[/th][th]Q1/17[/th][th]2020[/th][th]Unit[/th]
    Stock Market 656962606070588057507980points
    Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) - was last predicted on Friday, May 27, 2016

    Source : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/stock-market/forecast

    *************************************************************

    Now the problem is are we passive enough to accept above figures or active enough to change the destiny ?

    Lets learn maths, economics and see...

    OK since above data is not clear I put them in an excel table...

    Column1LastQ2/16Q3/16Q4/16Q1/172020
    Currency14714915115215387.7
    Stock656962606070588057507980
    Thanks Dear YK I love you I love you I love you
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°17

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 11:22 am

    Eight years later, Daniel Bernoulli, Jacob's nephew and an equally distinguished mathematician and scientist , first defined the systematic process by which more people make choices and reach decisions. Even more important, he propounded the idea that the satisfaction resulting form any small increase in wealth " will be inversely proportionate to the quantity of goods previously possessed."...

    With this innocent sounding assertion, Bernoulli explained why King Midas was an unhappy man, why people tend to be risk averse, and why prices must fall if customers are to be persuaded to buy more.

    Bernoulli's statement stood as the dominant paradigm of rational behavior for the next 250years and laid the ground work for modern principles of invest management.

    *************************************

    Pathfinder may be interested in this...

    It's Maths Bernoulli-family-35-638


    Last edited by yellow knife on Fri May 27, 2016 11:27 am; edited 1 time in total
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°18

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 11:26 am

    Family trees are powerful not only in politics, business but also among intellectuals...

    It's Maths Bernoulli_family
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°19

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 12:49 pm

    Almost exactly one hundred years after the collaboration between Pascal and Fermat, a dissident English minister named Thomas Byes made a striking advance in statistics by demonstrating how to make better-informed decisions by mathematically blending new information into old information.

    Bayes theorem focuses on the frequent occasions when we have sound intuitive judgements about the probability of some event and want to understand how to alter those judgements as actual events unfold.

    It's Maths 03-probabilitydistributions-41-638
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°20

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 12:59 pm

    All the tools we use today in risk management and in the analysis of decision and choice , from the rationality of game theory to the challenges of chaos theory, stem from the developments that took place between 1654 and 1760 , with only two exceptions...
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°21

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 1:33 pm

    So exception 1

    In 1875 Francis Galton, an amateur mathematician who was Charles Darwin's first cousin, discovered regression to the mean, which explains why pride goeth before a fall and why clouds tend to have sliver linings..


    Whenever we make any decision based on the expectation that matters will return to " normal " , we are employing the notion of regression to the mean.

    It's Maths Image006

    It's Maths 13-regression-analysis-quanttechregression-8-638

    It's Maths Galton-portrait

    Ying Yang writes.


    Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries)

    It's Maths Empty by Yin-Yang Today at 11:41 am
    In that case, what do you think can make accurate predictions?

    Sometime ago, I read and interesting theory; it said, predictions can be accurate for a group of incidents but at the same time not accurate for any of individual incidents.

    For example, one can say, the height of a typical Sri Lankan is exactly 5 feet and 5 inches and it could be accurate but at the same time, if we sample 100 individual, none of them could be exactly that tall.

    May be, what they say is true, 'averaging' is not a good investment strategy



    Its Maths....


    Last edited by yellow knife on Mon May 30, 2016 12:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°22

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 1:41 pm

    Exception 2

    This finding is rather new than findings of 1700s and 1800s... Seems certain things remained to be discovered even in 1900s....

    ***************************************

    In 1952 Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz, then a young graduate student studying operations research  at the University of Chicago demonstrated mathematically why putting all your eggs in one basket is an unacceptably risky strategy and why diversification is the nearest an investor or business manager can ever come to a free lunch.

    This revelation touched off the intellectual movement  that revolutionized Wall Street, corporate finance, and business decisions around the world: its effect are still being felt today.

    It's Maths Portfolio-theory-7-638
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°23

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 1:47 pm

    So a Sri Lankan investor who invest in CSE as well as Dollars will be safe if following is right...and shifting the percentage of allocation  by 2020..


    Column1LastQ2/16Q3/16Q4/16Q1/172020
    Currency14714915115215387.7
    Stock656962606070588057507980


    How reliable is such predictions.. If some one is 100% sure of TAs and other researches he can take perfect decisions .. Yet , any decision by political room can make unexpected drastic changes...

    Barbados decided to cut salary instead of floating exchange...

    SL today increased vehicle tax to such a level to almost stop importing and to affect Forex...
    • Back to top
    yellow knife
    avatar
    yellow knife
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 6980
    Join date : 2014-03-27
    • Post n°24

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by yellow knife Fri May 27, 2016 3:28 pm

    There is a persistent tension between those who assert that the best decisions are based on quantification of numbers, determined by the patterns of past, and those who base their decisions on more subjective degrees of belief about the uncertain future.

    This is a controversy that has never been resolved....

    Can past determine the future ?
    • Back to top
    Ethical Trader
    Ethical Trader
    Ethical Trader
    Top contributor
    Top contributor


    Posts : 5568
    Join date : 2014-02-28
    • Post n°25

    It's Maths Empty Re: It's Maths

    Post by Ethical Trader Fri May 27, 2016 4:55 pm

    Very good thread. Thanks YK.
    • Back to top

      Current date/time is Sat Jul 27, 2024 10:04 am