ruwan326 wrote:I like to wait for QR.......... This might be the cooling off for ASI02nd August probably... Or journey continue towards 6000
....
Have doubt, whether there will be any impact on Bullish market movement like this
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ruwan326 wrote:I like to wait for QR.......... This might be the cooling off for ASI02nd August probably... Or journey continue towards 6000
....
Thanks Mate.The Invisible wrote:Hear you go the numbers for Sampath bank. Please note these numbers were prepared based on certain assumptions and my own opinion of their future performances. Yours may be different.
Below is the snapshot for the Q2-Q4 19 numbers.
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Notes
a) Q2 18 loan loss provision is an estimated restatement from the actual reported based on how the Bank restated the Q1 18 figure
b) Q2-Q4 net interest margin is estimated to improve QoQ given that the bank will have the advantage of earning money from the proceeds of three rights issues concluded within last two years. (They have raised about 32bn in total)
c) Additional tax on account of debt repayment levy is also included Q2-Q4
Ok, here is my observations
a) Estimated EPS will be around Rs 30/- for FY 2019 from a total PAT of 11bn; this is almost similar to the restated NPAT of 2018. Looks amazing that even with such a detrimental situation for Banks one can maintain the earnings!!!
b) Estimated NBV of Sampath share to be 275/ as at June 2019 considering the rights proceeds received from the third rights issue
c) As per the closing price of today, 168/- Sampath bank was trading at a forward PE of 5.5x and a PBV of 0.6x. The same stock was trading at a PBV of 0.73x as at the end of last year
d) This is out of the calculations. From the third rights issue there were 25.5mn rights shares left unsubscribed due to pathetic investor appetite and the bank has given this to non shareholders highly likely to some funds @ 135/- each. When the market is coming back to alive I guess those funds who got Sampath @ 135/- are selling now @ a decent profit and may be some existing shareholders are increasing their stakes.
Conclusions
In any case a stock like Sampath having such a good earnings growth capability trading at a PBV of 0.6x or PE of 5.5x is completely ridicules to me. But due to the lethargic market sentiment prevailed until just 2-3 weeks ago can justify that price too. Also as I stated previously as well the three rights issues within two year period may have jolted investor confidence even more as well to push the share price towards those abysmal levels.
However if the market sentiment prevails like this and if some investor-liking political developments can take place in the months to come there is strong chance for the stock to move to the range of 180-190 in short term. Further if they can show the YoY growth in earnings from Q3 19 onwards similar to what I have estimated then going back to Rs200 + range again will be a highly possibility in the mid term.
The Invisible wrote:I dont remember Sampath bank trading at 550 last year.
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Some Broker houses predicted it to touch 350 mark but never got that far.
The Invisible wrote:I dont remember Sampath bank trading at 550 last year.
The Invisible wrote:Between 118- 120 I guess. But it can come down till about 100 if the market open the entire next week.
Backstage wrote:The Invisible wrote:Between 118- 120 I guess. But it can come down till about 100 if the market open the entire next week.
With a 11.50 divi![]()
The Invisible wrote:Backstage wrote:The Invisible wrote:Between 118- 120 I guess. But it can come down till about 100 if the market open the entire next week.
With a 11.50 divi![]()
People don't have any clue about whetherr these prices are ex or cum div. They just want to dump and run...
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:I will be happy if I can grab a few around 115/= on Monday.
The Invisible wrote:Backstage wrote:The Invisible wrote:Between 118- 120 I guess. But it can come down till about 100 if the market open the entire next week.
With a 11.50 divi![]()
People don't have any clue about whetherr these prices are ex or cum div. They just want to dump and run...
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා (9679) |
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