Re: How to get Access to: 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

To be honest, I totally lost interest now.

[Ethical TraderTop contributor]

Appreciate your lengthy explanation over the issue (first pointed out by SLS, and then by YK).
Investopedia defines the term manipulation as follows-

"What Is Manipulation?

Market manipulation refers to artificially inflating or deflating the price of a security or otherwise influencing the behavior of the market for personal gain. Manipulation is illegal in most cases, but it can be difficult for regulators and other authorities to detect, such as with omnibus accounts.

Manipulation is also difficult for the manipulator as the size and number of participants in a market increases. It is much easier to manipulate the share price of smaller companies, such as penny stocks because analysts and other market participants do not watch them as closely as the medium and large-cap firms. Manipulation is variously called price manipulation, stock manipulation, and market manipulation."

Accordingly, if we can restrict the size of investment by each member to few thousand shares only of each share selected for this research it never can't be termed as manipulation by the authorities.

Hence the suggested outh by YK is a wise thing. if some one buys more than the agreed amount of shares in the outh, it is his baby and the forum is not responsible for that.    
 

Dear Friends,

I like to take a step back and bring an open and broader view related to the starting of the,
'controversial', 104... thread in to our perspective;
by doing so, clarifying the intended objectives of starting the thread; as well as, clarifying
what I did not intend to achieve.

As most of you have noticed, I was out of the forum for nearly more that two years being an active member;
due to, mainly, time limitations. That time limitation restricted me allocating any considerable time to
market analysis activities also. Few years ago, I was in to both fundamental share performance analysis AND
technical analysis. However, due to time restrictions, I had to let go the fundamental analysis part and
move more towards Technical analysis.

Through experience, I learnt, there cannot exist any technique, be it fundamental or technical, capable of
outperforming the market at all times, at all market conditions. However, even a basic, simple technique; when used under special market conditions,
with strict discipline, can outperform any market under special favorable conditions.

Also, I learnt, the intellectual knowledge alone on markets or techniques is not adequate to develop
that discipline in a trader. A trader need to gather experience, by walking along a controlled path for a considerable
time in order to become successful as a 'outperforming' trader.

As I observed, in this forum (Should be in any forum for that matter), there are posts to stimulate our
intellectual knowledge but hardly any material to enhance trading experience.

That's why I thought of starting this 'strange' thread; probably the first of its kind in this forum.

----

I should clearly clarify that, I do not intend, and I do not believe I will, get any material benefits out
of this 'experiment'. And, I do not need the support of any thread to achieve gains in the market.
And, again, I do not depend on my market performance to support my life at the moment.
So, the whole idea behind starting the thread was, just to transfer and induce my experience and understanding
with others.

---------

To re-iterate the logic behind, executing the trades with real money: unless you put your real money in to
a trade, you will never learn from that trade in total. It's like; you will never experience the taste of 'Sugar'
until you eat sugar; or sour or bitter.
To give another analogy: you may learn driving in simulator, but, in order to become a good driver, you need
to hit the road and get experience. A diver with a constant fear of meeting an accident will never be a good driver.
A driver with no fear of meeting an accident will not survive as a driver for long.

---------------

I, in fact, expected some controversy to get associated here, when starting the thread, since that was going to be
the first of its kind in the forum. And there were hundreds of different interpretations one could come up with.

Let me estimate the best possible and worst possible outcomes I can anticipate as result of the thread.


Best Possible Outcomes:
* Interested traders participate in this experiment and gain experience on technical trading
* The participants gain skills to manage emotional aspects of the trading become successful traders
* Participants will share the emotional experience they go through with others, and learn from each other
* Eliminate mis-conceptions about trading and trading techniques
* Optimization of when and how to use the applied trading technique in this experiment in real life later


Worst Possible Outcomes:
* The experiment not showing any conceivable result, leading to total disappointment towards technical trading
* Some participants become too 'greedy' and as a result loosing all their money in bad trades
* The experiment become too popular and as a result influence the movement of whole CSE in an unbalanced manner
* Some participant mis-understand the objective of the experiment and loose their confidence and money on the way
* Some parties with some hidden agendas join the experiment and try to sabotage the forum and its members work
* Some unintended outcome goes out of control and develop in to some real life legal battles
* Authorities get interests and take some legal action against the forum and members
* The forum looses its reputation as a result of an unintended outcome of the 'experiment'

It looks the possible cons of the experiment looks outweigh the expected pros.

-----------------------

Restricting the tread to a set of suitable member is also acceptable to me. In fact, I suggested some movement similar to that, to discuss high risky trades, about 4~5 years ago in this forum, as mentioned by @Yellow Knife.


If majority of genuine members think so, I have no problem at all stopping 'the experiment' and the 104.. thread.
I am by no means, emotionally attached to it.

However, I like to throw out some random questions coming in to my mind:

- What are the chances that a trader loosing his money as a result of this experiment
- What are the bad examples that might set as a result of this
- Is it not good to discuss real time trades and shares openly?
- Is it not good to indicate a buying or selling set up in the open forum?
- Is it not good to promote investing in CSE due to high risks?
- CSE and SEC seem heavily suggesting public investing in CSE; should the stop doing so?
- Some share names are mentioned in some threads in this forum; is it bad or good?
- Some counters are mentioned as value and fundamentally good; is it bad?
- Some analysis suggest readers investing in certain counters or keeping without selling; is it bad?
- Is it good to keep the investment forums open, as, it might influence some innocent public into investing in the markets an loose money.
- Is it bad for interested 'innocent' investors giving a chance to experience real time trades in a controlled manner to experience what trading is about?

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

I have a question for the experts.
From time to time, I get recommendations to buy from broker huts and most of the time I have seen they have little or no merit.
Can I seek legal redress and recover, if I lose money buying based on their recommendations?

[BackstageTop contributor]

Commendable effort Hunt. Modalities will need to be worked out taking into consideration of all above mentioned issues. A critical mass of active participants are also needed to make it work.

Personally I wont have the time to allocate to participate actively but wouldn't mind being passively involved. I also go off the radar every now and then, and need time to look into important news items of people chasing porcupines ect.

Good luck.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

.. important news items of people chasing porcupines ect.

.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

I have a question for the experts.
From time to time, I get recommendations to buy from broker huts and most of the time I have seen they have little or no merit.
Can I seek legal redress and recover, if I lose money buying based on their recommendations?

Not an expert on the matter.
But I am certain they have covered themselves legally not to bear any responsibility.

I have see such disclaimers in little letters even when we sign up with them for trading accounts.

-------------
Even under moral grounds; they charge you a commission regardless of you make profit or loss.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Thanks, Hunter.
I am well aware but posted that question to show how ridiculously some are worried about the experiment only.
Let's get on with it soon.

I have a question for the experts.
From time to time, I get recommendations to buy from broker huts and most of the time I have seen they have little or no merit.
Can I seek legal redress and recover, if I lose money buying based on their recommendations?

Not an expert on the matter.
But I am certain they have covered themselves legally not to bear any responsibility.

I have see such disclaimers in little letters even when we sign up with them for trading accounts.

-------------
Even under moral grounds; they charge you a commission regardless of you make profit or loss.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

For the sake of academic interests, I like to see the possibilities and provisioning for an 'innocent' investor to charge against some kind of adviser.

Here are some possibilities I found in the Internet.
Anyone can give a better view?

Is there any way we can get SEC consultation on this matter?


Conflicts of Interest
Fees and Allocations of Expenses
Trade Allocations
Best Execution
Principal Trades and Agency Cross Trades
Insider Trading
Valuation of Securities
Disclosures Related to Performance, Assets under Management, and the Adviser’s Background
Failure to Disclose Changes in Investment Strategy
Disclosures to the SEC and to Issuers Rather than to Clients
Failure to Register as an Investment Adviser or Broker-Dealer
Misappropriation
Custody Violations
Safeguarding Client Information
Business Continuity
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Violations
Firm Procedures and Individual Supervision

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Consider the case of R. Foster Winans. Winans was a columnist for The Wall Street Journal who co-wrote the “Heard on the Street Column” from 1982 to 1984. This column, one of the paper’s most popular, offered insights into corporate affairs. It was generally believed to be able to “move” a stock price somewhat depending on its content

https://businessjournalism.org/2017/01/danger-business-journalist-danger/


Most of the cases are insider trading based. That includes Raj Rajarathnam. However recommending to buy can be argued differently.

Published Research reports are available to the general public equally is the belief.

So far I have not come across a case against Technical Recommendations. Yet When you are doing that be careful, when you are inviting for recommendations...

[HUNTERTop contributor]

.... Yes, agreed that we need to take precautions, on one side, to safeguard who ever following us, and on the other hand safeguard us.

Anyway, as far as this, 104.., thread is concerned;
* There is no recommendation for buying (for profits) will be made, except for a minimum qty to experiment.
* No fees or any other benefits are accepted; so, there is no service involved.
* No promises or commitments are made on expected results.
* The involvement in the 'experiment' is totally voluntary, no forcing.
* What is presented falls under the category of 'opinion' or 'suggestion', not under 'advisory' or 'recommendation'.

Does anyone see any legal background for a case here?

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Dear Friends,

Thanks for all your suggestions and comments.
Since apparently, no more suggestions are pending, let me review and summarize the issues and my suggested remedy
as below.


Issues at hand:
===============

There seems to be two issues, around which all those concerns are revolving;
1. Possibility of participants loosing money
2. Possibility of the Forum and its genuine members becoming the target of some legal battles

(Anything else in have missed?)


Resolutions:
============

The remedies, to resolve the above issues I suggest, in respective order are;

1. Appoint a senior member panel to filter-in the applicants who are mature enough not to burn themselves (I have already nominated the panel, Kith, YK and Backs)
2. Let the Admin decide on Yk's Oath or making them agree on some sort of disclaimer when filtered applicants join the 'restricted' thread.

(Anything else need to be added?)

[Ethical TraderTop contributor]

It is better to impose a maximum amount of shares each member could buy at a time for the imperilment in the agreement/oath itself as suggested by YK.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Can I delist from this experiment now before it really starts?
@ Hunter & Admin - See if this possible and do the needful, please.
Thank you all.

[AdminAdmin]

When signing up those agreement is in place. If anything special required do it.

Is there a way you can do with hypothetical trading?

You can disclose what you buy but whether another trades or not can be up to them

Another suggestion can this be limited only to liquid S&P 20 stocks?

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanks Hunter for understanding my concern.

Now you can activate your experiment and who ever participate would at least read the concerns discussed in the thread before active buying.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Thanks all for the comments and suggestions:

As I see, many of you, including YK, ET and Admin, have raised the issue of how much the participants should spend on this experiment.

-----

Many of the questions and concerns raised regarding this experiment suggest me that, there is a BIG difference in the way I look at 'trading' and majority of the commentators see.
It seems the way we perceived 'trading', differ from one person to another.

And, in my view, the root cause of all these worries and concerns, is the differences in those perceptions.

Let me clear our those perception differences so that we can talk a common language and proceed.

----------

In order to avoid the post become too long, I break the explanation in to multiple parts. (Yellow Knife style   )

---------------

As I have notice, when the term trading is heard; most of you might think of a situation where, a person bet a large sum of money at once, expecting the traded share to show a sudden and quick gain within few days, and to dump the share at once.

Probably the course of action accompanied by some means of promotion or demotion of the share, to manipulate the mind set of other 'victimized' investors.

-------------------

..well,.. that can be some sort of trading for some parties, but the trading I am talking here is quite different.

My way of trading is, following some consistent and controlled course of action, seeking long term aggregated and averaged results through, multiple and incremental short term actions.

When starting that, 104..thread, I was under the impression that majority of the members have a common understanding about what the trading is. But as I understand now, I have do some preamble work to get the participants ready for 'the experiment'

--------------------
The experiment is not 100% an idea of 'HUNTER'. In fact, almost exactly the same experiment is explained and suggested for new traders by the late legendary trading psychology guru, Mark Douglas, in many of his workshops and documents.

Let's start with some study of couple of Mark Douglas books to get our mindset ready for the experiment.

I would suggest, recommend and demand whoever want to participate in 'the experiment' to go through at least once completely the following two books by Mark Douglas.

1. The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas
2. Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude by Mark Douglas

Once the participant claims, he/she has gone through the books, I will ask some simple questions to verify the claim. That will be the final eligibility factor to qualify for the inclusion in the 'restricted thread'.

I will take a 'pause' here until the intended participants claim they are ready to go ahead.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

(Above was Explanation - Part-1)

Explanation - part-2

How much to invest and Risk in this Experiment.
===============================

I would like the participants to put equal amount of money in one trade. (not buying any fixed number of shares per trade)

Unlike those days, you can by any odd number of shares to match your target amount now.

For new comers to trading without a big risk capital;
I suggest putting anything between Rs 200 ~ 2,000/- per trade.

Considering 104 trades in this experiment, we can imagine a worst case investment of Rs 40,800/- ~ Rs 408,000/- for the period of 2 years.
However, considering an average hold time of 6 months, all you need to have in hand for this is around Rs 10,000/- ~ 100,000/- in total.

How much you can loose:
================

Usually, the SL we use will be less than 20%.
So, if we loose all our trades, we will have the risk of loosing about Rs 8,000/- 80,000/- depending on what you plan to invest.

If we win all trades, we might end up with a total profit of about Rs 12,000/- ~ 120,000/-

Considering practical possibilities, most probably, we will end up with small marginal net profit at the end of the experiment period.

-------------

Does anyone have any questions?

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Go ahead... Ready

[HUNTERTop contributor]

To Remind of you the experiment suggestions:
=============================

* We will take 104 trades; one at a week
* Expect the participant to decide on how much to put in one trade; I suggest anything between Rs 200/- to Rs 2,000/- per each trade. Expected to put equal amount in all trades.
* I have already explained the trade set up we would follow, we will buy at the formation of the technical set up; sell it either SL or TP level is reached or else close at the end of the planned holding time.
* Personally, I might not sell at the SL levels, but it is up to each individual to take that risk. If you're new, I suggest sell if SL is reached.
* We will keep records of each trade, will review time to time
* You are encourage to discuss what you feel about any trade at any stage; let's make this interactive.
* The main objective of this experiment is to practice and learn about trading, not to make profits.

Clear?

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

clear ... lets do trade

[HUNTERTop contributor]

We plan to resume the trading experiment in early January.

If anyone is interested, please read the above two books by late Mr. Mark Douglas and apply to be included in the 'restricted thread' of 104...
I might check your awareness of the two books before granting access.

This is my last call for granting access.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Is reading compulsory.. Can I get exemptions

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Reading is highly recommended
; for YK, 'Trading in the Zone'.

If you're too lazy to read, there are workshop videos by the same author (8 hour workshop videos)
--------

If someone is really serious on trading; I highly recommend consulting Backstage for some 'mindfulness' training also.

[lanka]

Can't we download the 2nd book 'Trading in the Zone' ?

[smallvilleTop contributor]

Wow... Another forum inside this forum.. What a pantastic idea mate..

So Hunter bro.. ur out of forum for a long time.. u did this and dat and finally remembered the forum - this is where the experiments go right? Thus wanted to create an elite group by restricting it and here yo go..

1. Moderators dont have access.. So apart from the privileged crowd others dont know what the hell is going on there...

2. The experiments run in this group may be discussed outside as well to create awareness/interest to certain shares which can lead to some level of manipulation.

3. Since we do not know whose in the group and whose not, reading comments from members also has become a tedious task as we will have to filter in the future...