Re: 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Another trade, LOFC has reached the TP level.

Here is the status:





(Wonder if we should open the thread to all members, at least temporarily)

[HUNTERTop contributor]

TJL Reached the TP level; here is the updated report.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Dear All,

Do you think it's a good idea to make this thread public now?

We'll wait for the result of all 20 trades before engaging with the next batch of trades. If needed, we can restrict the thread again that time.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Posting the results so far below.

As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 1000 points down.
However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

Can trading outperform the market?

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Good initiative.  

Posting the results so far below.

As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 100 points down.
However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

Can trading outperform the market?

[Senarath67]

HUNTER, This is the first time i got some idea about technical trading. I am sure, your great initiative has helped many amateurs to engage and get some experience in trading in a methodical manner.
Well done!

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Thanks Kith and Senarath for your comments.


Why I wanted to start this thread was to give some first hand experience to, interested parties, on a methodical approach to trading.
I have seen many have big mis-understanding and a very negative perception about trading.

Probably, because of that, majority of forum members opposed to starting of this thread.
But few selected members including the forum Admin was positive and encouraging the effort.

Therefore, we decided to start this as a closed thread, restricting access to very limited number of members.


But, now since, with the detailed report of past 6 months, I believe most of the doubts about the intentions are cleared.
if we make this public, at least for few weeks, some members might be benefited.


What do you all think, should we make this thread open for all members for a limited time period?

In other words:
Does anyone here opposing the idea of opening this thread to all members?

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Dear Admin,

If nobody opposes, please make this thread open for all members for a period of one month.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Yes.  

What do you all think, should we make this thread open for all members for a limited time period?

In other words:
Does anyone here opposing the idea of opening this thread to all members?

[LSETech Contributor]

Dear HUNTER,

Really appreciate your valuable effort on this. Great...

I always love to do research on TA since it will help for the community as well. As we develop our own approach we can make accurate signals as well.

If we can stick to an approach where we can identify more than 75% of accurate signals even in a worst situation it will be really helpful for the community. I have experienced this many times during my Pivot Point thread as well...

Please continue...

LSE

Posting the results so far below.

As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 1000 points down.
However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

Can trading outperform the market?

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Dear HUNTER,

Really appreciate your valuable effort on this. Great...      

I always love to do research on TA since it will help for the community as well. As we develop our own approach we can make accurate signals as well.

If we can stick to an approach where we can identify more than 75% of accurate signals even in a worst situation it will be really helpful for the community. I have experienced this many times during my Pivot Point thread as well...

Please continue...    

LSE

Thanks LSE.

I have noticed an increased level of accuracy in your pivot point analysis in the recent past. I guess the market experience definitely brings it's value for the improved accuracy.

As you correctly said;
Identifying the correct signal as well as having a pre-defined trading strategy will be utmost import for long term success in the market.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Following is the end result of the first 20 set of experiments.
After all trades closed, we have ended up with break even, despite the market dropping significantly.

[smallvilleTop contributor]

I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Good strategy to follow.

I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

You're spot on Small.
There are many ways of optimizing the trading performance.
That's the discussion I intend to have after the first batch of experiments.
There have been few more obvious 'mistakes' taken place, specially when exiting.

You have given a good start for the discussion; thanks a lot.

Please post if you have any other ideas.

[smallvilleTop contributor]

Good strategy to follow.

I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

If you remember, I was de first to tell everyone shud follow buy in chunks/sell in chunks strategy many many years back.. See its still valid for profit maximization and minimise losses if a trade goes wrong.. Its a shame I also dont follow my own strategy now-a-days and try our new things that continuously fail. LOL

[HUNTERTop contributor]

@Chutiputha added to the 'restricted' group.
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/u374

Welcome @Chuti !

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Noticed that this thread is now not restricted.
Hope it is visible to all members.

We'll keep it open for one month, then make a decision on restricting again based on senior member recommendation.

During this month, we will not do any trades, but keep the thread open for any discussion.

[HUNTERTop contributor]

Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

[sereneTop contributor]

Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

Hmmm.. Seen some activity around 54 yesterday. Buyers willing to buy.
Its not like past week or so where buyers back off when seen the quantities to sell at 54.
Still quite bit a selling also hapenning.
But still the operating environment for CFVF should be good and CFVF is one of the few good reports ecpected in JUNE.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

I know nothing about Tech but some indicators are showing Sell sign, than Buy.
If Hunter to clarify, please.

Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

[HUNTERTop contributor]

I know nothing about Tech but some indicators are showing Sell sign, than Buy.
If Hunter to clarify, please.

Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

Technical indicators are mostly based on some assumptions derived from recent past behavior of price.

For example; default settings of RSI might assume that after 7 days of green days, price would move down.

Hence, if you're referring to RSI, it might indicate a sell signal after a continues rally.

If you specify the indicator considered, I may be able to give some specific input.

BTW:
As indicated elsewhere, I am not using 'Averaging' technical Indicators these days; such as MA, MACD, RSI, Bolligar bands etc.

[Senarath67]

HUNTER, Please see whether you could give some targets for AEL, if you observe a trend. Thanks!

[HUNTERTop contributor]

HUNTER, Please see whether you could give some targets for AEL, if you observe a trend. Thanks!

Still hanging on to the previous trade; buy near 16 and sell below 20.

If the price establish above 20, will consider a new trade.

[Senarath67]

Thank you, HUNTER !!