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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER

    HUNTER
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    Post by HUNTER Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:58 pm

    Another trade, LOFC has reached the TP level.

    Here is the status:

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Status16



    (Wonder if we should open the thread to all members, at least temporarily)
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    Post by HUNTER Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:26 pm

    TJL Reached the TP level; here is the updated report.

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Asi_2014
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    Post by HUNTER Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:28 pm

    Dear All,

    Do you think it's a good idea to make this thread public now?

    We'll wait for the result of all 20 trades before engaging with the next batch of trades. If needed, we can restrict the thread again that time.

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා and serene like this post

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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:14 pm

    Posting the results so far below.

    As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

    We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 1000 points down.
    However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

    Can trading outperform the market?

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Status17


    Last edited by HUNTER on Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා and nihal123 like this post

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    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:30 pm

    Good initiative.  Very Happy
    HUNTER wrote:Posting the results so far below.

    As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

    We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 100 points down.
    However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

    Can trading outperform the market?

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Status17



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    Post by Senarath67 Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:44 pm

    HUNTER, This is the first time i got some idea about technical trading. I am sure, your great initiative has helped many amateurs to engage and get some experience in trading in a methodical manner.
    Well done!

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා and HUNTER like this post

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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:31 pm

    Thanks Kith and Senarath for your comments.


    Why I wanted to start this thread was to give some first hand experience to, interested parties, on a methodical approach to trading.
    I have seen many have big mis-understanding and a very negative perception about trading.

    Probably, because of that, majority of forum members opposed to starting of this thread.
    But few selected members including the forum Admin was positive and encouraging the effort.

    Therefore, we decided to start this as a closed thread, restricting access to very limited number of members.


    But, now since, with the detailed report of past 6 months, I believe most of the doubts about the intentions are cleared.
    if we make this public, at least for few weeks, some members might be benefited.


    What do you all think, should we make this thread open for all members for a limited time period?

    In other words:
    Does anyone here opposing the idea of opening this thread to all members?


    Last edited by HUNTER on Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:45 pm; edited 3 times in total

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා likes this post

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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:34 pm

    Dear Admin,

    If nobody opposes, please make this thread open for all members for a period of one month.

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    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
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    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:14 am

    Yes.  Very Happy
    HUNTER wrote:
    What do you all think, should we make this thread open for all members for a limited time period?

    In other words:
    Does anyone here opposing the idea of opening this thread to all members?


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    Post by LSE Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:59 am

    Dear HUNTER,

    Really appreciate your valuable effort on this. Great... cheers cheers cheers

    I always love to do research on TA since it will help for the community as well. As we develop our own approach we can make accurate signals as well.

    If we can stick to an approach where we can identify more than 75% of accurate signals even in a worst situation it will be really helpful for the community. I have experienced this many times during my Pivot Point thread as well... study

    Please continue... cheers cheers cheers

    LSE

    HUNTER wrote:Posting the results so far below.

    As of today, if we close all positions now, we will end up with some net profit.

    We started the experiment in November 2019; ASI was 6100 at that time. Now ASI is 5100, 1000 points down.
    However, during the same period, our trading results show a net gain.

    Can trading outperform the market?

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Status17

    HUNTER likes this post

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    Post by HUNTER Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:27 pm

    LSE wrote:Dear HUNTER,

    Really appreciate your valuable effort on this. Great...  cheers  cheers  cheers

    I always love to do research on TA since it will help for the community as well. As we develop our own approach we can make accurate signals as well.

    If we can stick to an approach where we can identify more than 75% of accurate signals even in a worst situation it will be really helpful for the community. I have experienced this many times during my Pivot Point thread as well... study

    Please continue... cheers  cheers  cheers

    LSE



    Thanks LSE.

    I have noticed an increased level of accuracy in your pivot point analysis in the recent past. I guess the market experience definitely brings it's value for the improved accuracy.

    As you correctly said;
    Identifying the correct signal as well as having a pre-defined trading strategy will be utmost import for long term success in the market.

    LSE likes this post

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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:28 pm

    Following is the end result of the first 20 set of experiments.
    After all trades closed, we have ended up with break even, despite the market dropping significantly.

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 104_re12

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා and Senarath67 like this post

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    Post by smallville Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:56 am

    I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

    IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

    Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

    Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.


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    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:06 am

    Good strategy to follow. Very Happy

    smallville wrote:I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

    IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

    Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

    Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.


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    Post by HUNTER Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:08 am

    smallville wrote:I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

    IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

    Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

    Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

    You're spot on Small.
    There are many ways of optimizing the trading performance.
    That's the discussion I intend to have after the first batch of experiments.
    There have been few more obvious 'mistakes' taken place, specially when exiting.

    You have given a good start for the discussion; thanks a lot.

    Please post if you have any other ideas.

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    Post by smallville Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:15 am

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Good strategy to follow. Very Happy

    smallville wrote:I see some of the entry points were very good. such as CFVF @ 32.. I even bought at 33-35 in June and unloaded above 45 time to time.. Also traded recently as well buying at 47.50 and selling above 52.

    IMO.. One issue in your attempt is that selling the qty at one go.. Where as u could opt to sell at 2 or 3 chunks with different time frames. If so the result would have not been a break-even.

    Look at SIRA, u caught at 2.80 and selling at 3.20 where majority buying now.

    Also when the trade is initiated for 1 month, it doesn't mean it has to be sold by a month, better to have 2 or 3 targets to maximize profits.

    If you remember, I was de first to tell everyone shud follow buy in chunks/sell in chunks strategy many many years back.. See its still valid for profit maximization and minimise losses if a trade goes wrong.. Its a shame I also dont follow my own strategy now-a-days and try our new things that continuously fail. LOL


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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:20 am

    @Chutiputha added to the 'restricted' group.
    https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/u374

    Welcome @Chuti ! Smile
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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:30 am

    Noticed that this thread is now not restricted.
    Hope it is visible to all members.

    We'll keep it open for one month, then make a decision on restricting again based on senior member recommendation.

    During this month, we will not do any trades, but keep the thread open for any discussion.

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    Post by HUNTER Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:25 pm

    Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Cfvf_211

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    Post by serene Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:12 am

    HUNTER wrote:Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Cfvf_211

    Hmmm.. Seen some activity around 54 yesterday. Buyers willing to buy.
    Its not like past week or so where buyers back off when seen the quantities to sell at 54.
    Still quite bit a selling also hapenning.
    But still the operating environment for CFVF should be good and CFVF is one of the few good reports ecpected in JUNE.

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    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:09 am

    I know nothing about Tech but some indicators are showing Sell sign, than Buy.
    If Hunter to clarify, please.
    HUNTER wrote:Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Cfvf_211


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    Post by HUNTER Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:08 pm

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:I know nothing about Tech but some indicators are showing Sell sign, than Buy.
    If Hunter to clarify, please.
    HUNTER wrote:Noticed some possibility of CFVF touching 65/-

    104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER - Page 10 Cfvf_211

    Technical indicators are mostly based on some assumptions derived from recent past behavior of price.

    For example; default settings of RSI might assume that after 7 days of green days, price would move down.

    Hence, if you're referring to RSI, it might indicate a sell signal after a continues rally.

    If you specify the indicator considered, I may be able to give some specific input.

    BTW:
    As indicated elsewhere, I am not using 'Averaging' technical Indicators these days; such as MA, MACD, RSI, Bolligar bands etc.

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    Post by Senarath67 Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:01 pm

    HUNTER, Please see whether you could give some targets for AEL, if you observe a trend. Thanks!
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    Post by HUNTER Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:14 pm

    Senarath67 wrote:HUNTER, Please see whether you could give some targets for AEL, if you observe a trend. Thanks!

    Still hanging on to the previous trade; buy near 16 and sell below 20.

    If the price establish above 20, will consider a new trade.
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    Post by Senarath67 Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:37 am

    Thank you, HUNTER !!

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