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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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Backstage
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The Invisible
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16 posters

    How to identify a stock market bottom

    Backstage
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 4 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Backstage Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:09 pm

    Yin-Yang wrote:
    Backstage wrote:Err... the mind is also viewed by some as another faculty or sense. The sixth sense.

    That's fine, if you wish so; then, human has a body where mind is another faculty.

    Do you believe there is a soul [or self] existing in human ?

    I did most of my life, until I came across the concept of Anattha. Which is inadequately translated as non-self. My understanding simply put is there is a self but an ever changing one. I presently don't have the capacity to grasp/realize it, but it seems quite plausible to me.

    That was the only way I could answer that. Are we still on track here ? Suspect
    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 4 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:59 pm

    We already have 75 posts !  Very Happy
    (Let's hear the Nuts and Bolts soon unlike lingering Indian tele-dramas today )  Rolling Eyes
    Yin-Yang wrote:
    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Interesting ! Very Happy
    (But, by the time when we really get to Nuts & Bolts of this methodology, I am sure one market cycle will be over). Cool
    We should be able to do it within 50 posts.
    Yin-Yang
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:00 am

    Backstage wrote:
    Yin-Yang wrote:
    +
    +

    Do you believe there is a soul [or self] existing in human ?

    I did most of my life, until I came across the concept of Anattha. Which is inadequately translated as non-self. My understanding simply put is there is a self but an ever changing one. I presently don't have the capacity to grasp/realize it, but it seems quite plausible to me.

    That was the only way I could answer that. Are we still on track here ? Suspect

    OK.
    So you think there is a self which is ever changing;
    that's fine.

    Let's call that changing is the change of the status of the self [or the mind]

    Now, do you think there is a connection between that change and the body ?

    I mean, is there any influence by the body on that status of the self?

    In other words, can the body [or its faculties] change the status of the self?
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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:51 am

    Yes.
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:34 am

    Backstage wrote:Yes.

    In that case, do you believe, if we understand how the body would function in a certain environment, we can reasonably estimate how a self would behave ?

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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:40 am

    Yes.
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:51 am

    All Right!

    Let's review our progress once more;

    + We are to find some way to catch tops and bottom of the market.
    + Tops and bottoms are caused by market movements, so we need to find about market movements.
    + Market movements are caused by money supply, so we need to find about money supply.
    + Money supply is caused by investors and shareholders, so we need to find about investors and shareholders.
    + Investors and shareholders consist of the species 'human', so we need find about human.
    + Human consists of two parts; body and self, so we need to find about body and self.
    + Self is a function of the body, so we need find more about the human body.

    Are you with me so far here?
    Are there any hesitations to continue further from here in this direction?

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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:59 am

    Last one, Self is a function of the body is a bit confusing. But for the objective of this exercise I assume that we need not dwell further on that point.

    Please continue.

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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:50 am

    Backstage wrote:Last one, Self is a function of the body is a bit confusing. But for the objective of this exercise I assume that we need not dwell further on that point.

    Please continue.


    In that case, let's say the behavior of the 'self' is influenced by the body.

    So, in order to understand the whole process, we need to further study the 'body'.

    Now, what do you know about this 'body'?
    Like self is associated with the mind; the body is associated with matter.
    Agreed?

    Then, what do you know about matter building up this body?

    What is the most abundant matter inside a human body which makes about 50% of its weight?

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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:25 am

    water
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:51 pm

    Brilliant!!!

    We can make a mild hypothesis here, since human is 50% made up of water; if we knew how water would behave, we would know how human would behave 50% accurately.

    Would you agree?

    if so,

    If we knew water, we would know 50% of human.
    If we knew human, we would know, investors and+++
    +
    +
    +
    +++we would know 50% of Tops and Bottoms.

    Sounds any interesting ?
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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:14 pm

    Yessss.
    avatar
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    Post by pee ratio Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:07 pm

    adey very intersting dis-cussing-station.
    i am just cussing nowadays.

    so, is the glass of water 50 % full or 50 % empty.

    i am eternal optemetrist.

    i am like thinking glass is 50 % full. so water in body is also 50%. soon someone is going to fill the glass.

    then Bottoms up.
    you like ?
    Yin-Yang
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:16 pm

    Ok.

    Now we are ready to start!

    On one end we have the market;
    On the other end, we have water.


    Let's test our knowledge a little on both ends first.

    Two questions:

    1. What will happen to a share price when there is a continuous supply of cash ?

    2. What will happen to the temperature of water when there is a continuous supply of heat ?

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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm


    1. Overheat- Bubble

    2. Overheat- Evaporate
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:25 pm

    I am asking before that.

    What would happen to the level of price / temperature.
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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:41 pm

    Rise.
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:52 pm

    There you are!

    Money to market is like Heat to water

    When supplied, levels will go up.


    Now,

    Take some water in a sub zero temperature [I mean some deeeeep freezed ice].

    Put it into some large enclosed vessel [big pot].

    And put it on constant fire.
    And measure the temperature of water.

    What do you think you will observe?

    Will the temperature rise steadily up?
    Or will there be any kind of pattern ?


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    Post by Backstage Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:16 pm

    Will rise but not steadily. A pattern with an abrupt rise in latter stages.
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    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:40 pm

    Backstage wrote:Will rise but not steadily. A pattern with an abrupt rise in latter stages.

    I need an exact answer with explanations preferred.

    What is the pattern of water when steadily heated from -100 C degrees to +200 C degrees ?

    [If you wish, first, you may read more about this under "Heating curve of water"]

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    sapumal


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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 4 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by sapumal Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:28 pm

    I think there is no way to find the bottom and top. There is no way we could identify fake orders , fake crossings, ... What we could do is to prepare our self for the best investment considering all the legal options.

    1. Does the stock market / share has lowest PE among different investment options
    2. What if I couldn't sell the stock for 5 years ? Does the stock has the long term stability ?
    3. How the stock respond to political senarios in world and in the country

    If investors confident about above factors they will put money.
    Yin-Yang
    Yin-Yang


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    Post by Yin-Yang Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:34 am

    Buddy,

    We are not talking if it is possible to find T&Bs;
    We are talking of how to harness them here.
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 4 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Backstage Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:36 am

    A three stage rise with five phases. ( courtesy of google of course)
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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:10 pm

    Backstage wrote:A three stage rise with five phases. ( courtesy of google of course)

    Excellent!!!

    What does Google say about those [two] 'not rising' phases. What happen there ?
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    Post by Backstage Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:21 pm

    Fist plateau Melting, second boiling.

      Current date/time is Sun Jul 14, 2024 7:03 pm