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+12
sapumal
pee ratio
Backstage
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
sashimaal
The Invisible
The Alchemist
xmart
CK
yellow knife
Yin-Yang
nihal123
16 posters
How to identify a stock market bottom
CK- Active Member
- Posts : 1393
Join date : 2015-11-01
yellow knife- Top contributor
- Posts : 6980
Join date : 2014-03-27
How about selling the stake... then deposit in a bank saving and out of monthly interest buy shares of promising stocks...You are safe from shocks and enjoy the roller coaster, the deeper the trough the more you enjoy...
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
CK wrote:YY what you think? Shall I take my biggest bet below 31?+++
+
What I think is, in the world of investments, almost always, your biggest bets and most promising bets will go against you.
So, there should not be any thing called the 'biggest bet'.
CK wrote:+++
++Buy small blocks hoping to avg down towards 25?
How about hoping to avg down towards 0/- ?
+++++++++++++
yellow knife wrote:How about selling the stake... then deposit in a bank saving and out of monthly interest buy shares of promising stocks...You are safe from shocks and enjoy the roller coaster, the deeper the trough the more you enjoy...
That sounds like something to ponder !
[Age seems to be making some ppl wiser]
CK- Active Member
- Posts : 1393
Join date : 2015-11-01
So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
Keep the mind at 'Now'.
If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?
If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
sashimaal- Top contributor
- Posts : 5785
Join date : 2014-02-28
Good answer 
However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0
However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0
Yin-Yang wrote:CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
Keep the mind at 'Now'.
If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?
If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
CK- Active Member
- Posts : 1393
Join date : 2015-11-01
Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think.
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price, I will buy at that point.
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price, I will buy at that point.
sashimaal wrote:Good answer
However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0Yin-Yang wrote:CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
Keep the mind at 'Now'.
If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?
If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
sashimaal- Top contributor
- Posts : 5785
Join date : 2014-02-28
Who wouldn't ? (if they have money to buy)
CK wrote:Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think.
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price, I will buy at that point.sashimaal wrote:Good answer
However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0Yin-Yang wrote:CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
Keep the mind at 'Now'.
If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?
If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
CK wrote:Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think.
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price,+
+
Ohhh; that's doable.
Sometime ago, I offered to show a method to catch exact peaks and troughs. But no one was interested in; in fact, was told, trying catching exact turning points were unnecessary, counter productive and against the popular wisdom of trading.
If I feel like, I may offer it again some time later.
[That was the method which suggested RICH 7.7 and LIOC 31 and few more..]
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා- Top contributor
- Posts : 9679
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 66
Location : රජ්ගම
Go ahead, we are listening.
(Buy when SSBs' are selling and Sell when they are buying is too vague method to predict anything).
(Buy when SSBs' are selling and Sell when they are buying is too vague method to predict anything).
Yin-Yang wrote:[
Sometime ago, I offered to show a method to catch exact peaks and troughs. But no one was interested in; in fact, was told, trying catching exact turning points were unnecessary, counter productive and against the popular wisdom of trading.
If I feel like, I may offer it again some time later.
[That was the method which suggested RICH 7.7 and LIOC 31 and few more..]
_________________
I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.
Socrates
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
I do not see much eager and dedication to learn yet.
Hence will wait for the right time.
Hence will wait for the right time.
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Very eager. 
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Backstage wrote:Very eager.
Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?
Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?
[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Yin-Yang wrote:Backstage wrote:Very eager.
Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?
Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?
[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]
Welll instead of buying the Subaru XV that I wanted, I bought REEF W19.
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Backstage wrote:Yin-Yang wrote:Backstage wrote:Very eager.
Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?
Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?
[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]
Welll instead of buying the Subaru XV that I wanted, I bought REEF W19.
Now the million dollar question;
Under the same conditions, would you buy W19 again?
Now the two million dollar question;
Under the same conditions, would you keep it until expire?
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
No, no . 
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Good, it shows some capabilities of learning in the hard way.
Now, since REEF was mentioned;
How would you take it if I said REEF.N will be good to buy at 7.5 and sell subsequently at 9.0 ?
In other words, Reef will form a bottom at 7.5 and a peak at 9.0
Is anyone capable of comprehending how we can imagine that situation at this stage?
Now, since REEF was mentioned;
How would you take it if I said REEF.N will be good to buy at 7.5 and sell subsequently at 9.0 ?
In other words, Reef will form a bottom at 7.5 and a peak at 9.0
Is anyone capable of comprehending how we can imagine that situation at this stage?
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Backstage wrote:I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......
Fine!: If I am to put your present requirement straight;
It should go something like;
You want to find some dependable way to catch bottoms of 'undervalued' shares.
Correct?
If so, what are your pet shares at this stage, aiming fro bottoms; apart from SAMP, CFIN and naturally ALLI ?
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Yin-Yang wrote:Backstage wrote:I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......
Fine!: If I am to put your present requirement straight;
It should go something like;
You want to find some dependable way to catch bottoms of 'undervalued' shares.
Correct?
If so, what are your pet shares at this stage, aiming fro bottoms; apart from SAMP, CFIN and naturally ALLI ?
Oh, Thought you were going to outline a general strategy of bottom/ top catching and not one customized for my pf. I am not buying at the moment, and waiting for some selling opportunities, BFL,GRAN, ALLI. Watching commodity markets in next couple of quarters to decide on CINV and CIT ( my big boo boos) LFIN,TJ, CDB, LMF, DISTI am stingily holding on to. Don't have CFIN/SAMP but they look good. In my second pf (a green one) am looking to dump some ACL and hold on to APLA. Will also switch some PLC to something else after divi. A lot of convoluted stuff that I expect to simply in the next two quarters based on movements of individual shares. I expect to have a clear strategy in place by April /May. Hence am all ears and eyes at the moment.
yellow knife- Top contributor
- Posts : 6980
Join date : 2014-03-27
May be luck made me to take a tough decision... Anyway I was even evaluating wether to sell the entire PF by last August as it complete my ten years in CSE. What finally I did was selling half of my PF ( which was LIOC) and moving that to savings.. It saved me and I am now happy to just utilize my savings interest to buy shares where dividend yield will be above 7%...
In that way I am playing a safe game and of course not worried about market going down as it gives me opportunities to identify and buy shares...
In that way I am playing a safe game and of course not worried about market going down as it gives me opportunities to identify and buy shares...
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Backstage wrote:
+
+
Oh, Thought you were going to outline a general strategy of bottom/ top catching and not one customized for my pf.
+
+
The approach we can take is to;
see how things work for some familiar counter, then;
generalize the strategy, then;
try to see if the strategy would work for other counters.
+++++++
We can call it a scientific approach, where;
we observe a small sample, then;
come up with our theory, then;
apply it on a broader sample and check for validity.
++++++
Since mentioned by you and YK, we'll consider at this stage the following counters;
LIOC
BFL
GRAN
ALLI
CINV
CIT
ACL
APLA
PLC
++++++++
First of all,
What do you mean by a TOP ? and
what do you mean by a Bottom, from your point of view ?
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Ok, I hear you. If you throw in RICH, MELTA and HAYL it would make it more interesting to me. If its too much, drop it.
Top/Bottom = close to the cusp of peaks/troughs of trend reversals.
Top/Bottom = close to the cusp of peaks/troughs of trend reversals.
Yin-Yang- Posts : 1321
Join date : 2016-03-12
Backstage wrote:Ok, I hear you. If you throw in RICH, MELTA and HAYL it would make it more interesting to me. If its too much, drop it.
Top/Bottom = close to the cusp of peaks/troughs of trend reversals.
We can add DiST and HAYL.
+++
We need to be a little more specific in the way defining the Top/Bottom.
Are we talking of years, months, weeks or days?
What is the Price % difference between a Top and Bottom you expect ? How long are you willing to wait for the top or bottom to reach?
[Ready made, mass produced, vague strategies are meant to bring in failures; so, you need to custom make your one]
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Say 18 month band. 40% up down.
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