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How to identify a stock market bottom

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How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 2 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

Post by CK on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 11:25

YY what you think? Shall I take my biggest bet below 31? What is the best method? Buy small blocks hoping to avg down towards 25? study
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Post by yellow knife on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 11:54

How about selling the stake... then deposit in a bank saving and out of monthly interest buy shares of promising stocks...You are safe from shocks and enjoy the roller coaster, the deeper the trough the more you enjoy...

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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 12:16

CK wrote:YY what you think? Shall I take my biggest bet below 31?+++
+

What I think is, in the world of investments, almost always, your biggest bets and most promising bets will go against you.
So, there should not be any thing called the 'biggest bet'.



CK wrote:+++
++Buy small blocks hoping to avg down towards 25? study

How about hoping to avg down towards 0/- ?


+++++++++++++

yellow knife wrote:How about selling the stake... then deposit in a bank saving and out of monthly interest buy shares of promising stocks...You are safe from shocks and enjoy the roller coaster, the deeper the trough the more you enjoy...

That sounds like something to ponder !

[Age seems to be making some ppl wiser]
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Post by CK on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 12:20

So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?
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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 13:22

CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?

Keep the mind at 'Now'.

If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?

If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
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Post by sashimaal on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 13:26

Good answer Razz

However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0 Very Happy


Yin-Yang wrote:
CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?

Keep the mind at 'Now'.

If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?

If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
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Post by CK on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 13:35

Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think. Razz  
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price, I will buy at that point.  Very Happy


sashimaal wrote:Good answer  Razz

However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0   Very Happy


Yin-Yang wrote:
CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?

Keep the mind at 'Now'.

If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?

If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
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Post by sashimaal on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 13:56

Who wouldn't ? (if they have money to buy) Very Happy

CK wrote:Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think. Razz  
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price, I will buy at that point.  Very Happy


sashimaal wrote:Good answer  Razz

However if you are on margin, you should care about the price going down to 0   Very Happy


Yin-Yang wrote:
CK wrote:So YY what you say? Buy or not? what you meant by avg down towards zero?

Keep the mind at 'Now'.

If the price worths now, why should we care even if it can go to 0/- ?

If the price does not worth now, why should we keep even if we have bought at 100/- ?
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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 18:19

CK wrote:Yes sashi. Good answer to read and enjoy and think. Razz  
Any way if someone can tell accurately the turning point of price,+
+

Ohhh; that's doable.

Sometime ago, I offered to show a method to catch exact peaks and troughs. But no one was interested in; in fact, was told, trying catching exact turning points were unnecessary, counter productive and against the popular wisdom of trading.

If I feel like, I may offer it again some time later.

[That was the method which suggested RICH 7.7 and LIOC 31 and few more..]

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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 19:01

Go ahead, we are listening.
(Buy when SSBs' are selling and Sell when they are buying is too vague method to predict anything). Very Happy
Yin-Yang wrote:[
Sometime ago, I offered to show a method to catch exact peaks and troughs. But no one was interested in; in fact, was told, trying catching exact turning points were unnecessary, counter productive and against the popular wisdom of trading.

If I feel like, I may offer it again some time later.

[That was the method which suggested RICH 7.7 and LIOC 31 and few more..]

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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu 15 Dec 2016 - 19:35

I do not see much eager and dedication to learn yet.
Hence will wait for the right time.
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Post by Backstage on Sat 24 Dec 2016 - 0:12

Very eager. bounce
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun 25 Dec 2016 - 9:51

Backstage wrote:Very eager. bounce

Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?

Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?

[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]
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Post by Backstage on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 12:55

Yin-Yang wrote:
Backstage wrote:Very eager. bounce

Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?

Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?

[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]

Welll instead of buying the Subaru XV that I wanted, I bought REEF W19. Sad
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Post by Yin-Yang on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 13:06

Backstage wrote:
Yin-Yang wrote:
Backstage wrote:Very eager. bounce

Anyone think, it is needed to catch bottoms and tops?
Anyone believes it is possible with high reliability?

Most importantly, anyone has enough guts to jump in at the bottom?

[Anyone thought it was a wise idea to buy a Hybrid or electric car when the taxes were near 15% ?]

Welll instead of buying the Subaru XV that I wanted, I bought REEF W19. Sad

Now the million dollar question;

Under the same conditions, would you buy W19 again?


Now the two million dollar question;

Under the same conditions, would you keep it until expire?
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Post by Backstage on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 13:13

No, no . Mad
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Post by Yin-Yang on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 14:10

Good, it shows some capabilities of learning in the hard way.

Now, since REEF was mentioned;

How would you take it if I said REEF.N will be good to buy at 7.5 and sell subsequently at 9.0 ?

In other words, Reef will form a bottom at 7.5 and a peak at 9.0

Is anyone capable of comprehending how we can imagine that situation at this stage?
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Post by Backstage on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 15:39

I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......
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Post by Yin-Yang on Tue 27 Dec 2016 - 16:30

Backstage wrote:I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......

Fine!: If I am to put your present requirement straight;
It should go something like;
You want to find some dependable way to catch bottoms of 'undervalued' shares.

Correct?

If so, what are your pet shares at this stage, aiming fro bottoms; apart from SAMP, CFIN and naturally ALLI ?
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Post by Backstage on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 10:52

Yin-Yang wrote:
Backstage wrote:I would say why go to REEF, (a complicated share with cowboy owners) for a 20% return when there are low risk undervalued shares available ie; CFIN SAMP......

Fine!: If I am to put your present requirement straight;
It should go something like;
You want to find some dependable way to catch bottoms of 'undervalued' shares.

Correct?

If so, what are your pet shares at this stage, aiming fro bottoms; apart from SAMP, CFIN and naturally ALLI ?

Oh, Thought you were going to outline a general strategy of bottom/ top catching and not one customized for my pf. I am not buying at the moment, and waiting for some selling opportunities, BFL,GRAN, ALLI. Watching commodity markets in next couple of quarters to decide on CINV and CIT ( my big boo boos) LFIN,TJ, CDB, LMF, DISTI am stingily holding on to. Don't have CFIN/SAMP but they look good. In my second pf (a green one) am looking to dump some ACL and hold on to APLA. Will also switch some PLC to something else after divi. A lot of convoluted stuff that I expect to simply in the next two quarters based on movements of individual shares. I expect to have a clear strategy in place by April /May. Hence am all ears and eyes at the moment.Smile
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Post by yellow knife on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 11:13

May be luck made me to take a tough decision... Anyway I was even evaluating wether to sell the entire PF by last August as it complete my ten years in CSE. What finally I did was selling half of my PF ( which was LIOC) and moving that to savings.. It saved me and I am now happy to just utilize my savings interest to buy shares where dividend yield will be above 7%...

In that way I am playing a safe game and of course not worried about market going down as it gives me opportunities to identify and buy shares...

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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 11:56

Backstage wrote:
+
+

Oh, Thought you were going to outline a general strategy of bottom/ top catching and not one customized for my pf.
+
+



The approach we can take is to;
see how things work for some familiar counter, then;
generalize the strategy, then;
try to see if the strategy would work for other counters.

+++++++
We can call it a scientific approach, where;
we observe a small sample, then;
come up with our theory, then;
apply it on a broader sample and check for validity.

++++++
Since mentioned by you and YK, we'll consider at this stage the following counters;

LIOC
BFL
GRAN
ALLI
CINV
CIT
ACL
APLA
PLC

++++++++

First of all,

What do you mean by a TOP ? and
what do you mean by a Bottom, from your point of view ?
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Post by Backstage on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 17:04

Ok, I hear you. If you throw in RICH, MELTA and HAYL it would make it more interesting to me. If its too much, drop it.

Top/Bottom = close to the cusp of peaks/troughs of trend reversals.
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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 17:47

Backstage wrote:Ok, I hear you. If you throw in RICH, MELTA and HAYL it would make it more interesting to me. If its too much, drop it.

Top/Bottom = close to the cusp of peaks/troughs of trend reversals.

We can add DiST and HAYL.

+++

We need to be a little more specific in the way defining the Top/Bottom.
Are we talking of years, months, weeks or days?

What is the Price % difference between a Top and Bottom you expect ? How long are you willing to wait for the top or bottom to reach?

[Ready made, mass produced, vague strategies are meant to bring in failures; so, you need to custom make your one]
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Post by Backstage on Wed 28 Dec 2016 - 18:13

Say 18 month band. 40% up down.
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