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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

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16 posters

    How to identify a stock market bottom

    Yin-Yang
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 7 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Yin-Yang Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:07 pm

    So, what price you'd buy SAMP and what target price to sell? At what time?

    At what level would you decide, 'something's going wrong' and exit?

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    Post by Backstage Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:34 pm

    Without knowing the determining criteria, I would buy at 264/= on your "word" that steam is about to rise.
    Do not know target price or criteria to determine such.
    Bail out around 245 as that was when the boiling began.
    Yin-Yang
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:15 pm

    Sorry about the delay mate; I didn't notice your last post.

    What would you feel now if you bought at 264/- ?

    Yeah, 264 was a perfect entry; however, the 260/- was the price to look at if things were going the other way.

    +++
    Now you have got an idea of this 'water' pattern and have some guts to jump in.

    To determine the levels and times for entry and exit; why don't you meddle with the charts and draw some lines and curves here and there?

    To start with, try joining the beginning of the rise with end of the first plateaus and extending that line.
    Yin-Yang
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:45 pm

    BTW:

    Any idea what should be your profit taking target ?

    +
    +
    +
    +
    +
    +

    290~298 within March
    CK
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    Post by CK Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:14 pm

    Mr. Ying-Yang, are you there in the bottom sir?? We can't hear you these days
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    Post by Yin-Yang Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:45 pm

    There are chances that you will hear less in future mate.
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    Post by Backstage Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:03 pm

    Yin-Yang wrote:Sorry about the delay mate; I didn't notice your last post.

    What would you feel now if you bought at 264/- ?

    Yeah, 264 was a perfect entry; however, the 260/- was the price to look at if things were going the other way.

    +++
    Now you have got an idea of this 'water' pattern and have some guts to jump in.

    To determine the levels and times for entry and exit; why don't you meddle with the charts and draw some lines and curves here and there?

    To start with, try joining the beginning of the rise with end of the first plateaus and extending that line.

    Any tips about which charts I should start meddling with first ? so that I wont have to go all the way back to o'levels.......
    CK
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    Post by CK Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:08 pm

    Read again and very good article. Thanks Nihal  Very Happy
    nihal123 wrote:1 Bad news has no effect
    When a market bottoms the release of more bad news it usually doesn't affect the market anymore. In such a case, the market reaches a state where no more bad news can bring it down.

    2 Most stocks are undervalued
    When the majority of stocks sell below their true value then there is a big possibility that the market has bottomed or that it's about to bottom. See also why stock prices don't reflect business value.

    3 Most bad news have been reflected in the market
    When serious bad news happens the market will go down. When all the bad news has been reflected in the new stock prices the market is likely to go up again after some time.

    4 Low volatility
    Markets usually get very volatile before they bottom out. When a market bottoms the volatility becomes much lower, as the market stabilizes after most sellers exit. See also why do people lose money in stocks.

    5 Very negative expectations
    Usually, when a market bottoms very negative expectations are released, sometimes by very large institutes that say that the market will go much lower than it already has. See also the psychological factors affecting the stock market.

    6 Big difference between value and price
    When a big difference between the share price and a company's value appears it might mean that the market is very near the bottom. When this happens to multiple companies, opportunity hunters will show up and raise stock prices sooner or later.

    7 When prices are at historical lows
    Usually, during market bottoms stock prices reach historical lows. If stocks are selling at prices they were selling at years before, then the market bottom might be very near.

    8 When the majority recommends selling
    When the majority of people recommend selling stocks then the bottom might be very near. In such a case, most of those who wanted to sell with losses could have already left the market leaving a strong buying power behind.

    9 When everybody complains about serious losses
    When so many people start to complain about the serious losses they have made it could be a good time to start watching the market and waiting for the near bottom.

    10 When no more bad news is expected
    Sometimes, the market goes down because of serious bad news such as slowing down of the global economy. If all bad news about the slowdown has been released then only good news will start to show up and as a result the market will go up.

    11 Technical indicators indicate overselling
    When most technical indicators indicate that the market is oversold then it might be a good idea to look for other factors to find out whether the market is about to bottom. See signs the stock market is about to crash.

    http://www.speeli.com/articles/view/How-to-identify-a-stock-market-bottom
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 7 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:25 am

    Good reminder CK. Thanks.
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    Post by Backstage Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:33 am

    Timely reminder by Calvin Klein, thanks. May be the Water Theory tutorial should move to another thread leaving this for those who appreciate bottoms. Wink
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    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Mar 07, 2017 3:35 pm

    As I gathered from the discussions above both water theory and bottoms go hand in hand.
    Backstage wrote:Timely reminder by Calvin Klein, thanks. May be the Water Theory tutorial should move to another thread leaving this for those who appreciate bottoms. Wink
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:28 pm

    Backstage wrote:
    Yin-Yang wrote:Sorry about the delay mate; I didn't notice your last post.

    What would you feel now if you bought at 264/- ?

    Yeah, 264 was a perfect entry; however, the 260/- was the price to look at if things were going the other way.

    +++
    Now you have got an idea of this 'water' pattern and have some guts to jump in.

    To determine the levels and times for entry and exit; why don't you meddle with the charts and draw some lines and curves here and there?

    To start with, try joining the beginning of the rise with end of the first plateaus and extending that line.

    Any tips about which charts I should start meddling with first ? so that I wont have to go all the way back to o'levels.......

    The one under discussion was a good starting point
    Yin-Yang
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 7 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:30 pm

    Backstage wrote:Timely reminder by Calvin Klein, thanks. May be the Water Theory tutorial should move to another thread leaving this for those who appreciate bottoms. Wink

    Sure
    Some still appreciate the famous bottoms from the past.
    https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fabbamikory.blogs.com%2F.a%2F6a00d83451741c69e2011571053ab6970c-500wi&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fabbamikory.blogs.com%2Fabbamikory%2F2009%2F07%2Fabba-p-10.html&docid=y3YGE-D9rcmBUM&tbnid=jT-yZS-Md-NmNM%3A&vet=1&w=500&h=412&client=opera&bih=632&biw=1366&q=bottom%20of%20ABBA&ved=0ahUKEwj064_vnsTSAhWIo48KHWQfCKMQMwghKAEwAQ&iact=mrc&uact=8



    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwic_NixnsTSAhUbSI8KHeWvCdUQtwIIHDAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DAoPiaWrTw-Y&usg=AFQjCNFwk_JYDx7lTeWUgNjhKJeMeOYs0A&sig2=dj7Booyt32zbqHUY5QyCmw&bvm=bv.148747831,d.c2I
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    Post by Ethical Trader Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:27 pm

    Ying Yang, its time to resurrect this topic.
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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:23 pm

    Oki Doki!
    Thanks for picking up the threat Bro.

    There have been some discussion taken place here prior to March.
    ++++++++

    So, has there been anyone who was taking the water theories serous and boughtt SAMP near 260?

    And sold near 300 ?


    OR bought RICH near 7.70?

    OR anything else?


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    Post by CK Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:07 pm

    Actually I missed rich. Luckily found some tea related shares early
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    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:02 am

    Bought some Samp & TJL but did not sell. My weakness.
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    Post by CK Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:05 am

    now samp above 300. You can sell now ET
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:45 am

    Ethical Trader wrote:Bought some Samp & TJL but did not sell. My weakness.  

    How would you know it's the right time to sell?
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    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:04 pm

    Each person should have different "right time" to sell. I being a long term investor with holding power has no urgnecy to sell. I usually sell when I need money.
    Yin-Yang wrote:
    Ethical Trader wrote:Bought some Samp & TJL but did not sell. My weakness.  

    How would you know it's the right time to sell?
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:27 pm

    So, how can it be a weakness then?
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    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:10 pm

    According to some Gurus on the subject, one has to realize profits or cut losses when appropriate. I do nothing of those.
    Yin-Yang wrote:So, how can it be a weakness then?
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    Post by Yin-Yang Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:35 pm

    Let me clarify;

    Your strategy is;

    1. When there is some excess money in the hand, buy some shares
    2. When some money is needed, sell some shares.

    Am I correct?
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    How to identify a stock market bottom - Page 7 Empty Re: How to identify a stock market bottom

    Post by Ethical Trader Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:15 pm

    Correct.
    Yin-Yang wrote:Let me clarify;

    Your strategy is;

    1. When there is some excess money in the hand, buy some shares
    2. When some money is needed, sell some shares.

    Am I correct?

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