Trading Journal

good to see u here Xmart
I am a good learner but when its comes to teaching i am not really .thats why most of the time i just post the book but unfortunately TRADE LIKE A STOCK MARKET WIZARD is not available in digital version if someone interested can by it from ebay,amazon cost around 20-30 dollars its really worth the money if you unsatisfied dont ask the refund from me

thanks path for the link whatever you read there is true thats the strategy let me tell this in a simple form. i search growth stock that capable of giving earning surprise by using fundamental analysis then time the timing by using technical analysis thats all
.but we have to use appropriate tool to get better result especially some indicates have to be avoided in fundamental analysis p/e should be avoided i hope all fundamentalist will accept this. in technical RSI shoud be avoided MACD can be avoided because this indicators will mislead. in the appropriate list
fundamental analysis -qualitative and quantitative both needed
technical analysis -The Volatility Contraction very important indicator,Moving average,cup with handle are useful tools

How to Time Your Trade with Pinpoint Accuracy - The Volatility Contraction (VCP) Pattern

Most investors cannot resist the urge to buy stocks at the wrong time, usually when the price is declining. I’m constantly asked whether I like this stock or that stock, and 99 percent of the time my reply is, “I wouldn’t buy it here.” The reason for this is that I have a strict discipline that only allows me to buy at a very specific point: the point at which reward outweighs risk.

How do I identify this point?

If there is any one commonality or Holy Grail that I follow and practice regularly, it is the concept of volatility contraction. This is a key distinction that I look for in almost every trade I make. A common characteristic of virtually all constructive price structures (those under accumulation) is a contraction of volatility accompanied by specific areas in the base structure where volume contracts significantly.

The main role that VCP plays is establishing a precise entry point at the line of least resistance. In virtually all the chart patterns I rely on, I’m looking for volatility to contract from left to right. I want to see the stock move from greater volatility on the left side of the price base to lesser volatility on the right side.

The Contraction Count

During a VCP, you will generally see a succession of anywhere from two to six contractions, with the stock coming off initially by, say, 25 percent from its absolute high to its low. Then the stock rallies a bit, and then it sells off 15 percent. Then buyers come back in, and the price goes up some more,and finally it retreats 8 percent. The progressive reduction in price volatility, which will be accompanied by a reduction in volume at particular points, eventually signifies that the base has been completed
i extract this information from this link
http://www.minervini.com/blog/index.php/blog/how_to_time_your_trade_with_pinpoint_accuracy_the_volatility_contraction_vc

https://goo.gl/images/K1GTPE
finding difficulties in uploading the image refer the link to understand VCP

A BIOGRAPHY WORTH READING
Mark Minervini is one of America's most successful stock traders; a veteran of Wall Street for nearly 30 years. To demonstrate the capabilities of his SEPA® methodology, in 1997, Minervini put up $250,000 of his own money and entered the U.S. Investing Championship. Trading against stock, futures and options traders, he traded a long only stock portfolio to win the real-money investment derby with a 155% annual return, a performance that was nearly double the next nearest competing money manager.

Minervini is featured in Jack Schwager's Stock Market Wizards; Conversations with America's Top Stock Traders. Schwager wrote: "Minervini's performance has been nothing short of astounding. Most traders and money managers would be delighted to have Minervini's worst year – a 128 percent gain – as their best."

Using his SEPA® trading strategy, in a five-and-a-half-year period Minervini generated a 220 percent average annual return with only one losing quarter. To put that in perspective, a $100,000 account would explode to over $30 million with those returns.

Minervini educates traders about his SEPA® trading methodology through a service he launched is 2006 called Minervini Private Access, a streaming communication platform that allows users the unique experience of trading side-by-side with Minervini in real-time. He also conducts an annual Master Trader Program seminar providing education about his trading methodology in a powerful 2-day weekend event. In his spare time, Minervini enjoys playing the drums, boxing, poker and cooking.

Mark Minervini traded his first stock in 1983 when he invested in a few hundred shares of Allis Chalmer, a seller of tractors and forklifts. Soon after, he became familiar with the work of Richard Love, author of the book Superpeformance Stocks. Love's book had a profound influence on Minervini's professional and philosophical views on investing and the formulation of his own investment strategy.

It was Minervini's initial intention to simply support himself from his trading profits, but his well-timed investment decisions increased his wealth dramatically each year, as well as the popularity of his opinion. After a decade of studying and trading the U.S. stock market, Minervini founded Quantech Research Group, Inc., an institutional research firm, in 1993.

By his early thirties, Minervini was at the helm as President of a leading institutional research firm in New York City, advising hedge funds and institutional investors in the U.S. and around the world. During this period, he also kept a demanding schedule of regular television appearances on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg Television and Fox News.

Minervini made available for a fee, to institutional investors, his in-house research based on his methodology Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA®. Clients paid as much as $10,000 per month for Minervini's highly guarded stock recommendations; his clients included the heavy hitters of Wall Street's hedge funds.


In May of 2004, BusinessWeek wrote, Minervini "sells what's often considered the holy-grail in investing."

In 1998, Minervini publicly voiced two back-to-back market calls, which shortly after propelled him into the media spotlight. On the August 28, 1998 Cavuto Business Show – Fox News Network, Minervini discussed the statistical similarities between the market then and the market on the Friday before the "Black Monday" crash of 1987, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 508 points in a single day. The Monday following Minervini's appearance (the very next trading day), the Dow Jones Industrials fell 512 points.

One month later, Minervini turned very bullish. In a September 28, 1998 profile titled "Trust the Computer," Barron's wrote: "Minervini was still bearish on the market until last week, when he did an about-face and turned raging bull." He recommended, among other stocks, Yahoo, Broadcom, Network Appliances and Abercrombie & Fitch, all of which went on to score spectacular gains as the stock market entered a new spectacular bull phase.

Twenty months later, Minervini turned decidedly bearish. On May 30, 2000 on CNN, Minervini said that the NASDAQ had entered a bear market and that the bear market would continue. He explained: "Oracle, EMC, Cisco, and Nokia – some of these favorite big-cap NASDAQ stocks that have been holding up quite well – they're going to give way now, and that's really going to unsettle investors."

Minervini previously had called for a steep decline in the Internet/dot.com sector on the same network on March 30, 2000. These comments where contrary to what most of the experts were saying at the time. During the March 30 CNN interview, Minervini said: "Many of these (Internet) stocks are going to go down between fifty and as much as eighty percent and some will go the way of Dr. Koop (bankruptcy)."

Twenty-eight months after his bearish market call the NASDAQ Composite Index was down sixty-five percent, while Oracle, EMC, Cisco and Nokia were down an average of eighty-three percent. Minervini had avoided one of the most devastating bear market declines in stock market history by protecting his personal portfolio and locking in his gains by going to cash before the decline hit. With the exception of a few well-timed short trades, Minervini sat idle in cash through what was nearly a three-year bear market before returning to the stock market on the long side.

On May 10, 2004, BusinessWeek reported: "Jan. 9 Minervini bought Taser (TASR/NASDAQ), a company that makes Taser guns – nonlethal weapons for police departments. He spotted its potential using his proprietary methodology, "Specific Entry Point Analysis" (SEPA); he then rode the stock up 121% in only six weeks.

In May of 2010, Minervini once again provided a bold prediction about the market conditions deteriorating as the DJIA was down about 250 points - and called for a potential 1,000 point decline in the DJIA – which is exactly what occurred within the next hour during the "Flash Crash" that day.

Minervini's most recent bullish market call was on January 3, 2012 - the S&P 500 went on to rally 44 consecutive days without as much as a 1% down day.
http://minervini.com/bio.php

do you belive this guy is a school drop out he left the school at the age of 15

champions arent made in gyms .champions are made from something deep inside them-a desire,a dream ,a vision
-muhammad alli

Yin-Yang wrote:I thank all for the inputs in the discussion.

This is not my thread, but urged to put together few things discussed in order to avoid certain possible confusion regarding some terms.

007 and others have mentioned the following terms.

Wave 1,2 .....
Phase 1,2,....
Stage 1,2,....

Apparently, Wave refers to Elliott's technical set up.

007 has used Phase and Stage to refer to some  business cycle.


Agreed?


I would like to revisit the mechanism 007 has tried to explain as follows.


This method has two stage;

1) Share screening stage
2) Executing buy/sell order stage


1) Share screening stage, deploy some fundamental analysis and similar methods to identify which Phase the share/business is in.

There are four phases considered;
1) Initial phase: before the share price start ascending
2) Second phase: share price has started going up
3) Share price is declining
4) Share price has gone down and ranging

Agreed?

The idea of Stage-1 is to screen shares in the beginning of phase-2.

Agreed?



2) Executing buy/sell order stage
Here, once the share is screened in, use some TA to find the best time and price to buy and sell.

Usually, the standard approach to buy is to look for the break out of a certain price level.

Those who use Elliott's try to find the breakout level from wave -1.

Now the Elliott talks of 5 waves ++.


The original problem 007 had [before all this mix up of waves, phases and stages] was the gain obtained by using the breakout from wave-1 level was too small for many shares.

Agreed?

Now what I was suggesting, was, there could exist better ways to find better buy and sell methods using Elliott's wave theory [to achieve longer gains].

Yeah ?

yes there is some confusion as i am not using the elliot wave i dont worry about 5 wave and longest 3rd wave there are some stocks capable of forming longer 3rd wave but that is not my concern what i worried is longer 2 nd stage the advancing stage
if u know better way to capture the trend please explain me

good reading pal +++

thanks. as i understood he has developed a system to screen stocks and identify stocks in early bullish phase. and charge 499$ per month.

hope the model suitable for CSE with at least of accuracy 60%. if possible share some reading materials about his method, would like to study further.

thanks again

Yes he charging money for training,live interaction,to access his analysis and to view his trades online but I don't think it's a good idea to go for it he operating in America and we are in sri Lanka if you are interested buy a book around 30$

When I use CAN SLIM accuracy is above 90% in bull market as a newcomer I am also doubted like u but by experience I understand all around the world markets are same only difference is the people. in bear market batting rate(success rate) will come below 50% it's not mean you can't make money .by making small changes to strategy you can still make reasonable profit

What i find interesting is this guy never use sort selling applying the same strategy even in the bear market but with causion this guy is a clear hedgehog

007 wrote:
+
+
+

yes there is some confusion as i am not using the elliot wave i dont worry about 5 wave and longest 3rd wave there are some stocks capable of forming longer 3rd wave but that is not my concern what i worried is longer 2 nd stage the advancing stage
if u know better way to capture the trend please explain me

Since you have built some belief towards one method, I do not want to disrupt it since the outcome could be counterproductive.

But I invite you to do a collective trial if you are interested.

This is what we can do;

Use your screening methods and identify about 5 shares.
Optionally, you can suggest your planned levels to buy and sell.

Then I will suggest what levels to buy and what levels to sell.


In that way, you will get to know what I have hinted without disturbing your existing believes.

If you like the idea, go ahead and com up with your 5 counters; Then I will come up with my suggestions.

Agreed?

dear yin yang nowadays i am confidence on my strategy even if u show me a method to capture full trend i am not going to change my strategy at the time being .strategy is developed by combining appropriate TA with fundas +sustainability+risk management
all are tailored to give ultimate result

In buying point there are other problems to consider
specially the speed of appreciation and risk involved in the entry point

 if you know CAN SLIM you can put that in action SEPA is not much differ from can slim.any how this time i am scanning all 240 share to identify the growth stock that falling under my category its a long tired some work start almost a month ago still ragging finally sort them to 33 but it can slim further

i name some growth stock capable of giving earning surprise as i already know
BLI,PARQ are still under my rader
TJL
APLA,ACL
HNB,SAMP
TKYO
GRAN
CCS

as i dont trust the stocks watch for any fundamental and technical changes any thing will happen in the journey keep a leg at accelerator keep the another one at break
watch full for changes. In the technical to be honest i am learning new tactics at SEPA and most of the techniques like todays totalturnover calculation needs to be executed instantly i dont think i can tell them in advance for that i think i needs to create a live private access just like mark minervini can charge around 400$

what about a discussion on how to identify potential growth stock as well as value stock any one thinking value stock can beat growth stock

even the legendary investor warren buffet change the style from value to growth made big success just after the change


smart people learn from experience but real
smart people learn from others experience
-007

007,

Thanks for putting forward your list.

As I see, almost all of them can be considered as very 'safe' and having potential for 'growth' in coming quarters and years.

Coming up with the above list, I should comment, is a very good job done by you.

Anyway, from my point of view; to boil down to that list, we do not necessarily need CANSLIM or SEPA; just some common sense and some market experience will also jolly well do so.

[Now, that is my personal view only. Using a systematic method such as CANSLIM will boost the confidence on the list and that is perfectly acceptable.]


You have mentioned the following also;

|||| i am confidence on my strategy even if u show me a method to capture full trend i am not going to change my strategy at the time being ||||

if so, do we really need to discuss further on buying/selling levels for the shares you have mentioned?

Or should we just leave them aside for the time being.

If it is not going to be useful for anyone, we better not spend our time on it.

In that case, I believe starting a new thread to discuss the following will be more useful.

|||what about a discussion on how to identify potential growth stock as well as value stock any one thinking value stock can beat growth stock||||

Shall we just do that ?

                                               

Yin-Yang wrote:what about a discussion on how to identify potential growth stock as well as value stock any one thinking value stock can beat growth stock||||

Shall we just do that ?

Very interesting even though the TA stuff is over my head. Thanks guys, keep it rolling.

Thanks 007

Ying Yang you are like a coach... A coach shows directions and often put challenging situation for the practitioner...

i name some growth stock capable of giving earning surprise as i already know
BLI,PARQ are still under my rader
TJL
APLA,ACL
HNB,SAMP
TKYO
GRAN
CCS

Ok 007

These are the stocks selected by Norwegian Petroleum Fund..

1.Sri Lanka: Access Engineering PLC

2.Sri Lanka: Central Finance Co PLC/Sri Lanka

3.Sri Lanka: Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC

4.Sri Lanka: Dialog Axiata PLC

5.Sri Lanka: Distilleries Co of Sri Lanka PLC

6.Sri Lanka: Hatton National Bank PLC

7.Sri Lanka: John Keells Holdings PLC

8.Sri Lanka: People's Leasing & Finance PLC

9.Sri Lanka: Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC

10.Sri Lanka: Sampath Bank PLC

11.Sri Lanka: Textured Jersey Lanka PLC

12.Sri Lanka: Tokyo Cement Co Lanka PLC

So some shares mentioned by are also selected by the biggest fund...

https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t3164-what-a-portfolio?highlight=what+a+portfolio

Good going all. As for some of the 'growth' stocks 007 mentioned, I view some as value stocks.

YK, look at the list you gave and read this thread
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8677-portfolio-size-vs-return-agree

Because of the size, the fund has to invest in large companies. But as retail investors, we have more options in smaller companies that have the potential to give higher returns.

Not a bad guessing !
(6 out of 12).

First Guy wrote:Good going all. As for some of the 'growth' stocks 007 mentioned, I view some as value stocks.

YK, look at the list you gave and read this thread
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8677-portfolio-size-vs-return-agree

Because of the size, the fund has to invest in large companies. But as retail investors, we have more options in smaller companies that have the potential to give higher returns.

Agree with you

Large funds consider higher liquidity as well where we buy REXP, CIND, which are not that much liquid but giving good return...

Wow.. we are going deeper then!

yes YK, YY is guiding the discussion very nicely. i was reading whole discussion but didn't have time lately to reply. but couldn't resist to post a quick one at least.

Since the discussion is deviating from original Elliot discussion and spreading its leg to far dimension i believe it deserve a separate thread.

anyway, large funds focus on stability and liquidity. but as retailers we have more freedom and we should use that freedom to beat fund managers.

thanks

Yeah.. Thanks for the reminder Xmart

Can some TA do an Eliot Wave analysis and say what is the stage of REXP, CIND , PARQ, BFL etc...

Looks like someone is involved with few companies big time.

One person in top 20 of few of the above is Mr. SR Fernando and members know who he is.


Usually, we mention the most important one [counter] to us first.

So, who else is there in top 20 of the first counter mentioned ?

I can pinpoint the name with 50% accuracy.

If one question is answered, 50% will be 99%.

Usually, librarians like round numbers or odd numbers?

Thanks all for contribution I am 100% agreed with FG' s theory mutual fund or big institutional investors don't have the luxury of instant buying or selling they need to collect slowly .they can't play with each and every company because of liquidity problem. In case of liquidity I am thinking the inverse less the number of shares better to buy because according to supply and demand theory lower supply means faster price appreciation

Even in usa people are pulling money from mutual funds and investing in index fund then think about the situation of big mutual funds

Yes yin yang
By experience also people can gain the knowledge and expertise specially I know a person who is capable of handling each and every STOCK presented in cse and his technique are not restricted to one strategy who also try hard to educate people for last 6 years. He really inspired me to share the little knowledge I got

Some successful way of handling shares in the long run is to consider them as different persons.

When you associate long enough, you will build an idea of how a person would behave and react.

You would know which person might scream at a sight of a cockroach and which person would catch the snake by head.

In that way, an HR manager may learn faster how to handle a share than an account or a mathematician.

The key is to be with the person [stock] long enough during good as well as bad times.


Of course, by looking at his CV and educational certificates also we can judge how he would behave.

[which is preferred by many analysts]

Yin-Yang wrote:Looks like someone is involved with few companies big time.

One person in top 20 of few of the above is Mr. SR Fernando and members know who he is.


Usually, we mention the most important one [counter] to us first.

So, who else is there in top 20 of the first counter mentioned ?

The factor I am interested is not who is in the top twenty lists but these companies grew faster and has potential to grow further.. Yet these showed clear phases of growths ... So I like to know the waves and wether such waves fall in line with Elliot Waves...

 ( I will appear as Yellow Knife for another ten years in cyber world until I use my real identity like Kithsiri..)

Now this is getting exciting as well, with Elliot spreading legs an all.