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Post by 007 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:40 pm

Sorry I think I needs to revise the other part believe percentage specially 5 wave theory I have serious doubt about it how many times we are seeing this patterns I think we needs to do research on it I think stock may be follow the pattern 60% of times
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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:20 am

If the belief is not strong enough, you will find it not working for you.

As I read, you have only some vague idea about Elliott's, not strong or specific enough to be of any practical use.

You may need to study further and absorb some 'specific' believes before even thinking about using it.
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Post by 007 on Thu Sep 15, 2016 7:31 am

true but if l believe is this theory capable of giving 100 % accuracy in our prediction
I mean it is 100% reliable tool to predict the stock future
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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Sep 15, 2016 7:40 am

If I have enough money, I can distort any pattern in the market.

There are no 100% reliable tools available.

++++++++++

If you want to use TA tools, first, you need to identify a very specific pattern. Then develop your strategy from there onwards.
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Post by yellow knife on Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:05 am

Yin-Yang wrote:If I have enough money, I can distort any pattern in the market.

There are no 100% reliable tools available.

++++++++++

If you want to use TA tools, first, you need to identify a very specific pattern. Then develop your strategy from there onwards.


I fully endorse your above statement...

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Post by 007 on Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:22 am

Yes yy,.yk
I am also believing there is no tool capable of delivering 100% accuracy but TA tools have to deliver above 50 % accuracy because a random walk is capable enough to give 50% accuracy according to law of probability.

Currently I am using the Elliott wave to compliment my fundamental analysis that is the reason I jumped in to this discussion as our xmart says 2nd phase is the perfect time to enter as I believe but there is a problem gain is not enough in case of VONE because 2nd phase is not long enough I think we can eliminate this problem by choosing right stocks that form longer 2nd phase
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Post by yellow knife on Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:39 am

Was it exit of a large investor made VONE to shorten the second wave

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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:00 am

++ First of all, market probabilities are not randomly distributed. So there will not be 50% accuracy available for 'random walk'.
[If probability is random, how can a TA tool give you above 50% accuracy ?]

++ Second, you don't need to be correct more than 50% of the time in order to make a net gain. Higher profits than losses will make a net gain with less than 50% accuracy.

++ Third, wave 3 does not need to be longer always and will not be.

++ Forth, there are ways to capture 100% of the trend using Elliott's if you look a little beyond those 5 waves.

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Post by 007 on Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:36 am

Yes I am also not belive in random walk theory yes market is also not randomly distributed but if a person blindly predict the market just randomly I think he can achieve 50%
Accuracy in long run

But I don't see anything beyond 5 waves can you explain
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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:41 am

It'll be more fun if you find it yourself.


To give you a hint:

Shoeshine boys are always obsessed with profits so they try to buy when the price has gone up. Real gainers do the opposite.
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Post by 007 on Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:03 pm

Mmm are you talking about contrarian style
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Post by xmart on Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:33 pm

very constructive discussion people +++

as usual our dear YY is twisting the statements. yes, market has very dynamic behaviors and one theory may not suitable for all the occasions. Elliot wave theory is not the holy grail. it is just a pattern among many chart patterns. but what amazed me is, how powerfully Elliot had illustrate the crowd sentiment.we can combined Elliot theory together with Fibonacci ratio (the golden rule of nature), the result amazed me.

if we are talking about shares and making 100% trend catching now, there are many ways on the book and off the book. contrarian investing is one method for value investors with holding power.

let me take point by point,

YY wrote:What if I said, there exists one way of catching 'almost 100%' as a retailer, and want to sell it, how much would you like to pay for that knowledge ?

Prior to that, would you believe such would exist?

since, the market is dynamic you can get a constant result from a constant method, but if you need almost 100% result, then have to come out from shell to make the killing.

no, i don't believe of a one way to catch almost 100% trend, YY, you sound like a marketing guy from a signal provider company (but, i know that you are trying to communicate in your own way). but if you know a such way, enlighten us with the logic. we may see how efficient the method is.

YY wrote:If I have enough money, I can distort any pattern in the market.

There are no 100% reliable tools available.

yes, people had money in 2012 but CSE lost billions. do not underestimate the power of long term trends my friends. you can make a tiny spikes here and there with your money, the term "enough money" is very treacherous term. larger the time frame lesser the effect. no any successful investor (traders do not go against trends) go against trends if they do not see a value in it. then we come to value investing. different matter.

YY wrote:++ First of all, market probabilities are not randomly distributed. So there will not be 50% accuracy available for 'random walk'.
[If probability is random, how can a TA tool give you above 50% accuracy ?]

++ Second, you don't need to be correct more than 50% of the time in order to make a net gain. Higher profits than losses will make a net gain with less than 50% accuracy.

++ Third, wave 3 does not need to be longer always and will not be.

Very True. Thanks!

YK wrote:Was it exit of a large investor made VONE to shorten the second wave

may be or may be not. people do exit for various reasons. recently one gave blood rain to LIOC due to personal reasons and that cause stock to close the technical gap (Liberation of Lubricant Market News helped too). but when we go for longer time frames those spikes are nullified. we can see after filling the gap, LIOC gathering its momentum to get to the next target)

YY wrote:To give you a hint:

Shoeshine boys are always obsessed with profits so they try to buy when the price has gone up. Real gainers do the opposite.

The Old School said "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own"

This is contrarian investing at its heart - the strongly-held belief that the worse things seem in the market, the better the opportunities are for profit.

Most people only want winners in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus."

In other words, if everyone agrees with your investment decision, then it's probably not a good one.

Beside, what do you expect from a market which is trading at 12x PER and 1.2 PBV. of course in coming quarters earning may drop due to high interest, government policy and many other factors. yet, we survived in worst conditions.

Going Against the Crowd

Contrarians, as the name implies, try to do the opposite of the crowd. They get excited when an otherwise good company has a sharp, but undeserved drop in share price. They swim against the current, and assume the market is usually wrong at both its extreme lows and highs.

Putting It On the Line

But there are risks to contrarian investing. While the most famous contrarian investors put big money on the line, swam against the current of common opinion and came out on top, they also did some serious research to ensure that the crowd was indeed wrong. So, when a stock takes a nosedive, this doesn't prompt a contrarian investor to put in an immediate buy order, but to find out what has driven the stock down, and whether the drop in price is justified.

Refer: Value investing at Heart

Thank Everyone!


Last edited by xmart on Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:24 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by 007 on Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:06 pm

Discussion is getting more and more interesting delighted read continuesly and I like the idea of combining fibanacy with Elliott wave really interesting
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Post by 007 on Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:55 pm

Yin-Yang wrote:

++ Third, wave 3 does not need to be longer always and will not be.


true 3rd waves are not long always
false always will not be. some stock poses the quality to form longer 2nd phase the 3rd wave they are the candidates i am looking for this is the kick i like to practice 10000 times

look at this charts from my initial picked stocks

Trading Journal  - Page 3 Bli210
Trading Journal  - Page 3 Kfp10
Trading Journal  - Page 3 Parq10
ESL chart is also interesting to see unfortunately chart is not available i am using the elliot wave as a base model but i dont use the exact idea i just look for break out then the stage 2 will start for me advancing base at the end of this stage i like to sell next stage maybe accumulation or declining
MY GAOL IS NOT TO BUY THE LOWEST OR CHEAPEST PRICE BUT AT THE RIGHT PRICE JUST AS THE STOCK IS READY TO MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.TRY TO PICK THE BOTTOM IS UNNECESSARY AND A WASTE OF TIME ITS NOT MY STYLE
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Post by First Guy on Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:23 pm

ESL is not traded right?
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Post by 007 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:06 am

Yes ESL removed from cse but it's chart is interest one to study best example for cyclical stock
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Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:45 pm

007 wrote: some stock poses the quality to form longer 2nd phase the 3rd wave they are the candidates i am looking for this is the kick i like to practice 10000 times


+
+
+


MY GAOL IS NOT TO BUY THE LOWEST OR CHEAPEST PRICE BUT AT THE RIGHT PRICE JUST AS THE STOCK IS READY TO MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.TRY TO PICK THE BOTTOM IS UNNECESSARY AND A WASTE OF TIME ITS NOT MY STYLE

Any view on PARQ regarding what would be your dream prices to buy and sell in the past [if you knew the future that time] ?


||||some stock poses the quality to form longer 2nd phase|||

What would be those qualities?

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Post by 007 on Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:45 pm

i hope you understand what i mean by 2nd phase that is 2nd stage the advancing stage .
i hope u already know them by reading the book how to make money in stock. william o'neil in his book from the beginning to end explain how to identify this type of stock and gives the easy mimic CAN SLIM mimic is easy content is not .currently i am using SEPA from Mark Minervini wins the U.S. Investing Championship only by trading stocks but his opponents use futures ,options and leverages.

SEPA mimic is look simpler than CAN SLIM but most complex comprehensive analysis but concept are same identifying this kind of super performance and reap the best gain from them .i update some indicators to CAN SLIM to make more accuracy SEPA also agreed them and give me more indicators and tactics

if apply the SEPA to PARQ i may bought it around 24 if i missed it 32 is the definite entry and 64 is the exist if i missed it 56 is the definite one.75% definite gain not bad

if u tell me to dream i will buy at 19 and sold them at 70. 268% gain impressive sweet dreams
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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:29 am

Wouldn't you dare buying at Rs 13/- and selling at Rs 70/- ?

[Which would be possible with Elliott's]

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Post by xmart on Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:24 am

007 wrote: SEPA from Mark Minervini

could you elaborate please?
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Post by pathfinder on Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:20 pm

xmart wrote:
007 wrote: SEPA from Mark Minervini

could you elaborate please?
This may help
http://minervini.com/sepa.php
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Post by yellow knife on Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:31 pm

Thanks Path... a very good link

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Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:47 pm

I thank all for the inputs in the discussion.

This is not my thread, but urged to put together few things discussed in order to avoid certain possible confusion regarding some terms.

007 and others have mentioned the following terms.

Wave 1,2 .....
Phase 1,2,....
Stage 1,2,....

Apparently, Wave refers to Elliott's technical set up.

007 has used Phase and Stage to refer to some business cycle.


Agreed?


I would like to revisit the mechanism 007 has tried to explain as follows.


This method has two stage;

1) Share screening stage
2) Executing buy/sell order stage


1) Share screening stage, deploy some fundamental analysis and similar methods to identify which Phase the share/business is in.

There are four phases considered;
1) Initial phase: before the share price start ascending
2) Second phase: share price has started going up
3) Share price is declining
4) Share price has gone down and ranging

Agreed?

The idea of Stage-1 is to screen shares in the beginning of phase-2.

Agreed?



2) Executing buy/sell order stage
Here, once the share is screened in, use some TA to find the best time and price to buy and sell.

Usually, the standard approach to buy is to look for the break out of a certain price level.

Those who use Elliott's try to find the breakout level from wave -1.

Now the Elliott talks of 5 waves ++.


The original problem 007 had [before all this mix up of waves, phases and stages] was the gain obtained by using the breakout from wave-1 level was too small for many shares.

Agreed?

Now what I was suggesting, was, there could exist better ways to find better buy and sell methods using Elliott's wave theory [to achieve longer gains].

Yeah ?








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Post by 007 on Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:52 pm

xmart wrote:
007 wrote: SEPA from Mark Minervini

could you elaborate please?
No need to please me I am open to questions
I am also like to share the same link path present hope to share more once time permit
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Post by yellow knife on Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:37 pm

Very good discussion.. I learn a lot...


What I got from Path's link is similar to Product Life cycle of Marketing...

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If we link that to a product becoming popular after introducing and massive advertising campaign then the ideal time to enter when the company making profit and getting out before it mature and decline...


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Not a bad strategy....

Anyway continue your discussion on TAs and Eilliot Waves...

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