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TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )

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TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS ) Empty TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )

Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:38 am

Warning 

The share I am going to talk TPL will go down in price by at least Rs 3 immediately after XD.. So its not for trading immediately..

Salary revision and uncertainty situation of the buyer nations will act adversely so its not a buying recommendation for those who think long term means less than two years..

TPL.N is identified by Hunter by executing his alchemist formula..My effort here is to do a deep analysis which is quantitative as well as qualitative by nature..


Last edited by yellow knife on Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:45 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : to start another thread with the same name)

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:50 am

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:52 am

Group Revenue has continuously gone up and 2014 is missing in above chart as 2015 is taken as 15 month .
Therefore the chart will give a slightly distorted pattern at the end. I took the information from ten year summary of the annual report of TPL

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Post by First Guy on Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:57 am

yellow knife wrote:Group Revenue has continuously gone up and 2014 is missing in above chart as 2015 is taken as 15 month .
Therefore the chart will give a slightly distorted pattern at the end. I took the information from ten year summary of the annual report of TPL

If you want a number to compare correctly, you can deduct the March quarter revenue from the 15 month figure to get the "2014" revenue.

I think they are going to change the accounting year end to March from December or already have.
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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:51 am

Yes FG. they have added three months to 15 months and from next year they may shift to a March Company from the current December end.. However when evaluating above chart the Group revenue has been steadily going up.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:57 am

The Chart below shows an Historical Overview of Sri Lankan tea industry. The production level of tea in the country for last 15 years has been remaining rather constant. 340 Million Kilograms was the maximum production of tea recorded and the lowest was 289.7 Million Kilograms. The variations are due to weather patterns and other than that overall production was not growing in the tea sector..

GSA means the gross sales average. this is the average sale price obtained over a period of time for a kilo of produce before any deductions such as Brokerage etc.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:02 am

YearTea ProductionGSAGSA
Mn.Kg.High GrownLow Grown
2000305.8128.46144.79
2001295135.56154.5
2002310141.73160.55
2003303.2138.31160.86
2004308.1171.78189.86
2005317.2172.24199.01
2006310.8204.58204.5
2007304.6252.46298.66
2008318.4273.83336.38
2009289.7319.73387.07
2010331.4338.33392.48
2011327.5329.95381.27
2012326.2375.53407.14
2013340402.98469.91
2014338420.36488.06

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:12 am

Now we have seen that TPL.N is recording continuous increase of Revenue.. Yet when we analyze the overall tea production of the country its rather stable.

Revenue generates from only two things : Price and Quantity

R=P*Q

If the quantity remains constant then the price should go up to generate an increase of revenue. As per the published information of Gross Sales Averages of Low Grown has overtaken High Grown Sales Averages..

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:39 am

The annual production of 338 Million Kilograms of 2014 consist of following sub sectors 

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:56 am

Sri Lanka's contribution to global tea production

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:13 am

When the total National Tea Production of Sri Lanka remains stagnant around 330 million kilograms per annum, TPLs tea production remain at 7 million kilo grams per annum and GSA has remained well below Rs 500.00


201420132012
ProductionKilograms7,025,8427,291,1787,654,863
GSARs/Kg494.64467.77415.55

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:16 am

One challenging aspect of Plantation Industry is its sources of Revenue namely price and quantity is well beyond the control of a company.

Climate and weather patterns decide the quantity and that is beyond the control of the company.

Price is decided at the auction and its based on international market and that aspect is also beyond control.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:27 am

In this backdrop success of a plantation firm depends on effectively managing cost. That's where plantations of Richard Peiris Group namely Namunukula and Kegalle do not spend much even on annual report printing.

TPL.N is differently managed that they even grab the CA awards for annual reports. Annual Report of TPL.N 2014/15 is also very informative and also should have been an expensive effort.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:36 am

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:44 am

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:47 am

In 2011 and in 2009 company was making negative earnings..


2015201320122011201020092008200720062005
EPS10.087.319.09-2.176.21-0.944.64.193.384.44
Dividend 332.502.501.2502.51.5

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:51 am

Net Assets Per Share was continuously going up for last 10 years

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Last edited by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:57 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : 15 to 10)

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:08 pm

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:14 pm

One good strategy followed by many good companies like TJL is reducing the debt to reach almost zero.

TPL.N seems to slowly getting rid of debt.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:53 pm

Following Chart shows top ten Sri Lankan Tea Buyers

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:00 pm

Above chart shows the real problem with Sri Lankan Tea

Once Dr Rohantha Athukorala wrote an essay about the changing pattern of Sri Lankan tea buyers position. First it was England that became the first. Next Japan. Now that's Russia and Middle East. His argument was that the we could not maintain the big buyers. But I see it differently that the disposable income level of the countries. Those who can afford expensive tea are changing with the national economic growth.

Now the problem we are facing is UNCERTAINTY in our main buyer countries. Russia, Iran , Libiya and Syria as well as Iraq is facing economic problems thanx to so called JATHYANTHARAYA...

The Geo Political issues is the main concern for SL Tea and thats identified clearly in TPL annual report create another

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:02 pm

Further the economic uncertainty in above countries create another problem. That is devaluing of the buyer nations currency which make SL TEA expensive to the buyer.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:07 pm

Sri Lankan Rupee appreciation against Russin Ruble was 41% and against Iranian Rial was 9.4% which made SL Tea expensive in respective countries.

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:13 pm

so when we say exporters will get benefit with Rupee depreciation against USD, tea industry will not get that much benefit...

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:38 pm

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