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» Coronavirus Updates
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyToday at 10:26 am by The Invisible

» In the Meantime, Within Our Shores !
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyYesterday at 9:42 pm by Rajapaksap

» Dividend Announcements
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jul 06, 2020 9:06 pm by yellow knife

»  Rajgama Heroes !
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jul 05, 2020 10:05 pm by serene

» Thread for News on CSE and SL Economy
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jul 03, 2020 7:17 am by The Invisible

» Access Engineering AEL Technical Analysis
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jul 03, 2020 7:14 am by The Invisible

» Obituary Notice.
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jul 01, 2020 12:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

»  6000 Post Club , Celebration of a Great Milestone, Slstock
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyTue Jun 30, 2020 9:35 am by slstock

» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyTue Jun 30, 2020 8:00 am by LSE

» How to get Access to: 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 29, 2020 9:35 am by nuwanmja

» Sri Lanka to monetize tens of billions of contractor bills
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jun 28, 2020 10:30 am by The Invisible

» 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 27, 2020 10:27 pm by HUNTER

» CFVF - First Capital
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 27, 2020 10:22 pm by HUNTER

» RCL - Royal Ceramics
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 27, 2020 4:02 am by desh87

» Stocks - Banks Drag Wall Street Lower After Fed Buyback Ban; Dow Down 290
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm by nihal123

» Sri Lanka plans US$4bn PPP for LRT in place of Japan funded soft-loan project
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyThu Jun 25, 2020 8:57 pm by The Invisible

» PABC.N0000 (Pan Asia Banking Corporation PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 pm by seek

» JKH.N0000
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 24, 2020 9:33 pm by The Invisible

» Plantation sector updates
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 24, 2020 10:32 am by The Invisible

» LOLC Holdings
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 22, 2020 3:40 pm by Rajapaksap

» Sri Lanka bank bad loans in March 2020 pick up to 5.1-pct
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 22, 2020 12:50 pm by The Invisible

» The Central Bank of Sri Lanka Further Reduces the Statutory Reserve Ratio
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 22, 2020 11:53 am by nihal123

» Sri Lanka tea prices pickup marginally mid June
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jun 21, 2020 8:11 pm by The Invisible

» කොළඹ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ ඩිජිටල්කරණය කිරීමේ වැඩපිළිවෙල ඇරඹෙයි
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jun 21, 2020 12:55 pm by HUNTER

» Sri Lankans stock up, buy online in Covid-19 curfews, informal workers hard-hit: survey
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jun 21, 2020 9:34 am by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka chicken supplies to tighten after Covid-19 crisis, maize import controls
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySun Jun 21, 2020 9:32 am by The Invisible

» S&P SL20 සමාගම් ලැයිස්තුවේ වෙනසක්.
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 20, 2020 7:56 am by slstock

» HNB රුපියල් බිලියන 5ක ණය යෝජනා ක‍්‍රමයක් දියත් කරයි
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 19, 2020 10:47 pm by nihal123

» SAMP.N0000 (Sampath Bank PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 19, 2020 1:08 pm by dakzsl

» HAYC - Haycarb
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 19, 2020 12:04 pm by Rational Investor

» විශාලම ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් 50 විනිවිදභාවය පිළිබඳ වාර්තාවක් එළිදැක්වෙයි
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyThu Jun 18, 2020 11:13 pm by nihal123

» HAYL.N0000 Hayleys PLC
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyThu Jun 18, 2020 7:53 pm by NIRMALSG

» GLAS.N0000 (Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 17, 2020 12:29 pm by nuwanmja

» Sri Lanka bank forex funding pressures, bad loans to rise after Covid-19: Fitch
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 17, 2020 10:43 am by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka telecom regulator asked find businesses to use Lotus Tower
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 17, 2020 10:33 am by The Invisible

» Gota's Era
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyTue Jun 16, 2020 2:40 pm by puliyanam

» Fitch Revises Ratings on 11 Sri Lankan Financial
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 13, 2020 11:58 am by spw19721

» Carlton Sports Network to resume broadcasts soon – Rohan Welivita
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 12, 2020 11:27 am by Rajapaksap

» සල්ලි අච්චු ගැසුවාද?
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 10, 2020 11:35 pm by nihal123

» වටිනා පාඩමක්!
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 10, 2020 9:58 pm by Backstage

» Sri Lanka’s General Election on August 05
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 10, 2020 3:08 pm by The Invisible

» Hayleys MGT
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyTue Jun 09, 2020 11:16 am by The Invisible

» AEL Access Engineering
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyTue Jun 09, 2020 11:08 am by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka import controls, cargo bottleneck hit apparel exporters
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 08, 2020 4:12 pm by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka tea prices ease lower, low growns drive May average to all time high
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyMon Jun 08, 2020 8:47 am by slstock

» Sri Lanka plans to allow tourists from August, no mandatory quarantine
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptySat Jun 06, 2020 3:05 pm by Antonym

» Sri Lanka makes trillion rupee mini-budget till August under Presidential powers
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyFri Jun 05, 2020 10:48 am by The Invisible

» HHL.N0000 ( Hemas Holdings PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyThu Jun 04, 2020 4:32 pm by Backstage

» LION.N0000 (Lion Brewery Ceylon PLC)
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyThu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm by The Invisible

» කොටස්--වෙළෙඳපොළ--වැසුවාද
CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 EmptyWed Jun 03, 2020 9:49 pm by nihal123

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CFVF - First Capital

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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by pathfinder on Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:33 pm

I bumped the thread at right time for members to enter when it trading at 25 also gave a fair warning when it pass 40.

ET- I don't recommend CFVF as a LT investment.It's a cyclical share,better to ride the waves rather than holding long.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:37 am

Agree with you totally. Now that Treasury Bond business is under complete surveillance (& free of crooks) by concerned authorities after the CB bond scam, CFVF will be able to thrive in that area. Hence, their performance cant be bad in the future. Who knows whether the intended buyer is connected to famous Bondmen?
slstock wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks for the detailed comment.I was contemplating in adding some more to my portfolio at current prices as the last interim dividend of Rs:4/= was almost 10% at the current price level. I will do so if the price comes down a little bit more  than now.


ET, if you are keeping this long term for dividends, just remember  the time
when it went below Rs 20 and paid no dividends. They can pay dividends
when they earn good profit only right ?  After that .. ?
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:38 am

Thanks Path.
pathfinder wrote:I bumped the thread at right time for members to enter when it trading at 25 also gave a fair warning when it pass 40.

ET- I don't recommend CFVF as a LT investment.It's a cyclical share,better to ride the waves rather than holding long.
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Post by hammurabi on Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:36 pm

Hopefully there will be another dividend by January
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by The Invisible on Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:20 pm

Anyone of you are looking @ CFVF? If you refer to the equity, bond & forex update thread of me you can find some positives there that will have on CFVF. The latest reduction of rates now has given more opportunities for them to increase profits. At the moment we are seeing a good demand after a long time.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by The Invisible on Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:02 pm

CFVF has reached 44/- with better than average trading volumes. Anyone who has this share better to hold for another few more days.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by HUNTER on Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:57 pm

The Invisible wrote:CFVF has reached 44/- with better than average trading volumes. Anyone who has this share better to hold for another few more days.

From 'Swing trading' perspective, I would buy below 40/- and sell above 50/-
and hold in between.

Swing range will vary with the central bank interest rate announcements: Lower the higher, higher the lower.
Laughing Laughing Laughing
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by The Invisible on Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:29 pm

Since no one has posted I would like to produce below facts for your information.

CFVF has achieved its latest 52week high of 56.70 on 17th September last year. In that quarter they have made 213mn profits. Below are the opening and closing TBill rates for that quarter.

91 day TBill 8.24 and 7.62
182 day TBill 8.49 and 7.75
364 day TBill 8.70 and 8.41

TBill rates as of 19th June are as follows
91 day 6.30
182 day 6.30
364 day 6.62

All are significantly lower than the once seen in 2019.

At the beginning of the year the following were the rates for above TBills.
91 day - 7.50
182 day - 8.13
364 day - 8.52

So the reduction in this year so far is far greater than the reduction saw in Q3 last year where CFVF ran ti its 52 weeks high.

I think better you do ur math now for the results of Q1 & Q2 2020.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by HUNTER on Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:44 pm

Traders and Investors have different mind sets; usually very opposite ones.
In fact, in my view, they should have different mindsets to perform in the market.

Investors look at the business performance and make decisions.
Traders look at the market price movements and make decisions.
That will make both perform and happy.

If you try to do the other way around; i.e.
Investors making decisions based on market movement and traders making decisions based on company business performances, usually, both will face disasters.

Usually traders should not be rational and; should not think that market price would behave proportional to the quarterly profits.
But investors might.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by The Invisible on Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:08 pm

HUNTER wrote:Traders and Investors have different mind sets; usually very opposite ones.
In fact, in my view, they should have different mindsets to perform in the market.

Investors look at the business performance and make decisions.
Traders look at the market price movements and make decisions.
That will make both perform and happy.

If you try to do the other way around; i.e.
Investors making decisions based on market movement and traders making decisions based on company business performances, usually, both will face disasters.

Usually traders should not be rational and; should not think that market price would behave proportional to the quarterly profits.
But investors might.

We can get a hint of the expected profit for Q1 & Q2 2020 based on the behavior of the market interest rates. And the stock price reaction reflects what that profit figure will be. Investors estimate this profit number and derive the future share price while traders look at the market momentum created by profit speculation and set their trading strategies.
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CFVF - First Capital - Page 10 Empty Re: CFVF - First Capital

Post by HUNTER on Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:22 pm

The Invisible wrote:
HUNTER wrote:Traders and Investors have different mind sets; usually very opposite ones.
In fact, in my view, they should have different mindsets to perform in the market.

Investors look at the business performance and make decisions.
Traders look at the market price movements and make decisions.
That will make both perform and happy.

If you try to do the other way around; i.e.
Investors making decisions based on market movement and traders making decisions based on company business performances, usually, both will face disasters.

Usually traders should not be rational and; should not think that market price would behave proportional to the quarterly profits.
But investors might.

We can get a hint of the expected profit for Q1 & Q2 2020 based on the behavior of the market interest rates. And the stock price reaction reflects what that profit figure will be. Investors estimate this profit number and derive the future share price while traders look at the market momentum created by profit speculation and set their trading strategies.

That's a very reasonable and rational explanation of why and how the share prices move. 'Expected profits' is one of the most significant reasons behind the price movement of an associated share.

However, based on my experience, Investors, speculators and traders need to look at the whole scenario from different angles.

In my view, it's relatively OK for an investor or a speculator to calculate the expected market price based on expected future profits. In fact, I have personally done it for many years.

However, when it comes to a trader, he should not be too obsessed with company profits to make decision on his target levels. The market momentum will almost always, shoot the price well above the reasonable fair value in a bull run. Hence, holding on to a calculated fair value will be very counter productive for a trader, since he might miss the 'overshoot'.

(To be) Successful trader should not be too focused on any specific, razor sharp execution of a single trade; rather he should reap the advantages of a probabilistic and statistical advantage of a long term strategy.
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