CFVF - First Capital

slstock wrote:Hey ,  how about renaming  CFVF to  "Kith's Kiri Ale" ?

Might be prasthawa pirula   in the future


Thread title I will  rename   "Mod Kith Ale."

serene wrote:

slstock wrote:Hey ,  how about renaming  CFVF to  "Kith's Kiri Ale" ?

Might be prasthawa pirula   in the future


Thread title I will  rename   "Mod Kith Ale."

Kiththage Hot Ale.

slstock wrote:

serene wrote:

slstock wrote:Hey ,  how about renaming  CFVF to  "Kith's Kiri Ale" ?

Might be prasthawa pirula   in the future


Thread title I will  rename   "Mod Kith Ale."

Kiththage Hot Ale.

At this rate , this renaming is going to  borderline  filth  

slstock wrote:

Leon wrote:
Sentiment on CFVF rejuvenated yday may be with the rate cut, may be with selling news. Whatever the reasons we got to be cautions as what we do with CFVF.
Making losses is painful, selling premature & watch the share run is more painful. Having a suitable balance is the challenge.

Was there a further CB  rate cut yesterday ( after June ?)
Did I miss anything?

Leon wrote:

slstock wrote:

Leon wrote:
Sentiment on CFVF rejuvenated yday may be with the rate cut, may be with selling news. Whatever the reasons we got to be cautions as what we do with CFVF.
Making losses is painful, selling premature & watch the share run is more painful. Having a suitable balance is the challenge.

Was there a further CB  rate cut yesterday ( after June ?)
Did I miss anything?

T-BILL AUCTION 31.07.2019
Amount offered 22Bn
Bids received 60Bn
Amount accepted 22Bn
91Days 7.85% down 4bps
182Days 7.94% down 2bps
364Days 8.21% down 17bps
- BizAlert

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:" මොඩ් කිත් අලේ ",

NEWER wrote:Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

CK wrote:

NEWER wrote:Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

Ha ha.. Accurate  picking of bil newer... But red for the post... Nothing to do except laughing

CK wrote:

NEWER wrote:Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

Ha ha.. Accurate  picking of bil newer... But red for the post... Nothing to do except laughing

The Invisible wrote:

CK wrote:

NEWER wrote:Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

Ha ha.. Accurate  picking of bil newer... But red for the post... Nothing to do except laughing

However in advance

The Invisible wrote:

CK wrote:

NEWER wrote:Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

Ha ha.. Accurate  picking of bil newer... But red for the post... Nothing to do except laughing

However in advance

slstock wrote:Hmm , I see this thread is getting heated in 2 ways.
Share price and member sentiments. Someone here has to moderate.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


1) ALL OF YOU FIRST READ below thread. Take what said there in wiser way ( not personal)

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2) Below is discussion I had with Kithsiri on CFVF/CSEC few weeks ago.

Specially take note of the facts I mentioned on Shaffter games.  Did it happen again for CFVF?  

slstock wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:UBC, simplyfor the sentimental value being mostly IPO ones.
Bought JINS & CFVF together and managed to get out with the hefty gain with JINS but not with CFVF.
Let's hope for a good time to come where it will go past 70 mark.  

slstock wrote: kithsiri
Can't say I did 't warn about UBC to you.
CFVF we have discussed and beaten to death in the past.
( I like to remember Chinwi also at this time when talking about CFVF)

When I discussed treasury related shares ( in so much detail )  in the past
I explicitly warned then these were not to be held for long term.

When we discussed and initiated then

CFVF was  Rs 14 ( later went  to 70) .
ESL was Rs 17  ( later went to Rs 68 or something )
( now ESL is also in trouble over politics and other reasons)

So in essense what am saying is

" Don't count on  high value expectations like the past ( like Rs 70)  
Once you get some decent  profit in CFVF get out.

If holding for longer term, in the next 2 quarters CFVF doesn't show very good eps growth, I would be watchful.


JINS, CFVF, CSEC and BFN are not the most transparent groups around.
We saw how the Shaffters played some games with CSEC.


Things are not same as in the past
Best be watchful so you won't get burnt.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



I posted below on July 24th when share price was around Rs40 and after another Shafter game.  

Rs 40  value ,  I think was a okay price based on future expectation and even speculation.


It is one thing to talk about it in Rs 20s but after Rs 40 can some answer me the bekow

1)  What is the intrinsic value of CFVF now ?  
What is the June quarter earning expectation.


2) Read the highlighted below .

a)  Are you 100% sure sure  this transaction  of CFVF will happen at very high prices ?

b) Are you 100% sure this is not a Shafter game to push the  share price further? ( which Happened from rs 40  to 50 as many got into  it on speculation of the sale.)

slstock wrote:

[size=16]We have noted unusual trading in the shares of the Company
on24th July 2019 and been further informed that there is market
speculation of a possible acquisition of First Capital Holdings PLC
("the Company").


..............
However, the Board wishes to strongly emphasize that the discussions are at a preliminary stage. Any final decision to proceed with the transaction will be
subject to several conditions. These include, the prospective investor  completing a satisfactory due diligence; obtaining corporate aprovals;
and, being able to arrange financing for the purchase.

Hence, and particularly in view of the uncertainty of the third condition, the disclosure of any information would have been premature.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I also like to add a few more thing for Knowledge and ethics



a) All of you Don't forget Chinwi  who introduced
CFVF to many first  ( I too talked about it a lot simutaneoulsy but Chinwi should be given credit as he was first to initiate long ago )



b) Once CFVF was trading at Rs 28.

But EPS was Rs 17.

Every other share ran like crazy in the bull market.
But not CFVF.

Do you know why ?



c) Don;t get Greedy with Hot potatoes.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SUMMARY :

Be careful on news, hot stocks and sentimental buys.
If they gone wrong   who is going to rescse you.

There are other fish in the sea too

Topcat wrote:Stuck on top... price of never learning from mistakes  

slstock wrote:
Presume you bought for short term trading with the trend  

Topcat wrote:

slstock wrote:
Presume you bought for short term trading with the trend  

Yep. Fueling with some rumors.
sls , do you think it is advisable to avg down at these levels?
(I managed to avg down mgt at 13 s and now with the current price i am with
some profit. )

slstock wrote:Why is this thread dead quiet now ?
Do you"ll remember the mass craze over CFVF one time?
Sentiments were getting overblown too.
Had to add  sense , balance and even a warning as below  then.  


What happening now  with CFVF with all those other forums and people
who were interested ? Now not a meek !

 Did anyone buy at the top for short term trading ( around Rs 56) and holding ?  

~~~

Btw Kithsiri, are you still holding on to your Hot Ale or did you dispose it ?  
( the hot potato,  not the Ale/Beer )

slstock wrote:Hmm , I see this thread is getting heated in 2 ways.
Share price and member sentiments. Someone here has to moderate.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


1) ALL OF YOU FIRST READ below thread. Take what said there in wiser way ( not personal)

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2) Below is discussion I had with Kithsiri on CFVF/CSEC few weeks ago.

Specially take note of the facts I mentioned on Shaffter games.  Did it happen again for CFVF?  

slstock wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:UBC, simplyfor the sentimental value being mostly IPO ones.
Bought JINS & CFVF together and managed to get out with the hefty gain with JINS but not with CFVF.
Let's hope for a good time to come where it will go past 70 mark.  

slstock wrote: kithsiri
Can't say I did 't warn about UBC to you.
CFVF we have discussed and beaten to death in the past.
( I like to remember Chinwi also at this time when talking about CFVF)

When I discussed treasury related shares ( in so much detail )  in the past
I explicitly warned then these were not to be held for long term.

When we discussed and initiated then

CFVF was  Rs 14 ( later went  to 70) .
ESL was Rs 17  ( later went to Rs 68 or something )
( now ESL is also in trouble over politics and other reasons)

So in essense what am saying is

" Don't count on  high value expectations like the past ( like Rs 70)  
Once you get some decent  profit in CFVF get out.

If holding for longer term, in the next 2 quarters CFVF doesn't show very good eps growth, I would be watchful.


JINS, CFVF, CSEC and BFN are not the most transparent groups around.
We saw how the Shaffters played some games with CSEC.


Things are not same as in the past
Best be watchful so you won't get burnt.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



I posted below on July 24th when share price was around Rs40 and after another Shafter game.  

Rs 40  value ,  I think was a okay price based on future expectation and even speculation.


It is one thing to talk about it in Rs 20s but after Rs 40 can some answer me the bekow

1)  What is the intrinsic value of CFVF now ?  
What is the June quarter earning expectation.


2) Read the highlighted below .

a)  Are you 100% sure sure  this transaction  of CFVF will happen at very high prices ?

b) Are you 100% sure this is not a Shafter game to push the  share price further? ( which Happened from rs 40  to 50 as many got into  it on speculation of the sale.)

slstock wrote:

[size=16]We have noted unusual trading in the shares of the Company
on24th July 2019 and been further informed that there is market
speculation of a possible acquisition of First Capital Holdings PLC
("the Company").


..............
However, the Board wishes to strongly emphasize that the discussions are at a preliminary stage. Any final decision to proceed with the transaction will be
subject to several conditions. These include, the prospective investor  completing a satisfactory due diligence; obtaining corporate aprovals;
and, being able to arrange financing for the purchase.

Hence, and particularly in view of the uncertainty of the third condition, the disclosure of any information would have been premature.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I also like to add a few more thing for Knowledge and ethics



a) All of you Don't forget Chinwi  who introduced
CFVF to many first  ( I too talked about it a lot simutaneoulsy but Chinwi should be given credit as he was first to initiate long ago )



b) Once CFVF was trading at Rs 28.

But EPS was Rs 17.

Every other share ran like crazy in the bull market.
But not CFVF.

Do you know why ?



c) Don;t get Greedy with Hot potatoes.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SUMMARY :

Be careful on news, hot stocks and sentimental buys.
If they gone wrong   who is going to rescse you.

There are other fish in the sea too

Ethical Trader wrote:Thank you SLS for the comments on CFVF. This was one of my favorite shares once. It was a good dividend paying share too but every thing was destroyed when certain accounting manipulation by accountants was revealed some time ago and then with the central bank bond scam. around 0.38% of my portfolio is CFVF. Average price is around Rs: 30.00 I could have disposed it when the price was over Rs:50.00 but still holding on as prevailing low interest on capital would  further boost their profits. Your studied comments are highly appreciated.    

slstock wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:Thank you SLS for the comments on CFVF. This was one of my favorite shares once. It was a good dividend paying share too but every thing was destroyed when certain accounting manipulation by accountants was revealed some time ago and then with the central bank bond scam. around 0.38% of my portfolio is CFVF. Average price is around Rs: 30.00 I could have disposed it when the price was over Rs:50.00 but still holding on as prevailing low interest on capital would  further boost their profits. Your studied comments are highly appreciated.    

ET,  


This thread had so many people interested on CFVF few months ago.
Some heated  issues also happened in this thread if you notice.


Predictions, targets , charts, group play all happened. I had to add
balance and warnings too.


But , now ONLY Topcat and You respond. What happened to everyone
else? I have already PMed Topcat. So the only reason I  am making

the below detailed public post on CFVF,   is specially  because of your request. 


But due to such ,the silent many who are interested  will benefit too ,
I know. I will put it down to merit  haha.  ( Else I could easily PM you
too  without writing this in public)  




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~




1) On CFVF share personality, I wrote pages on  in the past years as you

 remember.


Some people  first came to know about CFVF  due to Chinwi  
( and well I too  talked about it in detail when it was Rs 15-16 and
 ran from Rs 14 to 70  one time)  





2) CFVF earning pattern is different to many shares. It a bit like plantations.
In 1 quarter , they will report a massive earning ( they did last quarter) . Then  earnings will go lower ( like this quarter) and  eventually flat
( to even losses if things do not favor them).




3) This is a cyclic share. Best not to  hold for very long time.  




4)  Having said that, since they reported around Rs 2 eps  for september
it is  not bad still.   With election run , CFVF  can go up a bit more  
from Rs 43 now  ( the top this time was Rs 56).   Next quarter too they can
report some profit ( but not very high profit). 



5) But unless they declare another dividend or management sells  CFVF  
as announced at CSE ( why I don't know they want to sell ) , best not to
expect very high prices.  Fundamentally the NAV   is at Rs 40 too.



I still don't understand why they want to sell CFVF which is the money
maker for CSEC. I really feel this CFVF share sale was a Shafter game
to price up.  I could be mistaken if they really want to sell  for some
reason I don't understand.  IF they actually sell , then CFVF can go up
again. If they don't ??


But we also need to know, Management can  easily say later,
the CFVF sale  deal didn't work out.  Then what ?
 




6)  Did you see what happened recently to CSEC after the pumping ?

 

7)  After election, if CFVF market interest is lost  and price has not
recovered  enough, it maybe better to sell and  move on to a better

share. If some favorable announcement happen to CFVF you can re-enter.


CFVF cannot make big profits every quarter. It doesn't work that way
as  I mentioned.




8 ) Many who buy CFVF are traders who want to make quick profit.
   That why it ran so fast from RS 20 to 50 ( also on rumors ).
   Now silence. Investors are few into this. 



   I saw a few traders commenting early  at Rs 20 and then decently
   commenting of value around Rs 40. That was a good call.






9) Anyway since they reported Rs 2 this quarter , it is still not bad.
     Best to wait to see today how it reacts after Rs 2 earnings
   ( which is better than last year) .




10)  Overall with present earnings ,this is not bad share to hold a bit more.
But holding for long term, or basing prices on market rumors and promotions
is not  wise with this kind of  share.




Not only earning matter , right ?




Hope this detailed analysis taking lot of time helps.


Good luck.

Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks for the detailed comment.I was contemplating in adding some more to my portfolio at current prices as the last interim dividend of Rs:4/= was almost 10% at the current price level. I will do so if the price comes down a little bit more  than now.

slstock wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:Thank you SLS for the comments on CFVF. This was one of my favorite shares once. It was a good dividend paying share too but every thing was destroyed when certain accounting manipulation by accountants was revealed some time ago and then with the central bank bond scam. around 0.38% of my portfolio is CFVF. Average price is around Rs: 30.00 I could have disposed it when the price was over Rs:50.00 but still holding on as prevailing low interest on capital would  further boost their profits. Your studied comments are highly appreciated.    

ET,  


This thread had so many people interested on CFVF few months ago.
Some heated  issues also happened in this thread if you notice.


Predictions, targets , charts, group play all happened. I had to add
balance and warnings too.


But , now ONLY Topcat and You respond. What happened to everyone
else? I have already PMed Topcat. So the only reason I  am making

the below detailed public post on CFVF,   is specially  because of your request. 


But due to such ,the silent many who are interested  will benefit too ,
I know. I will put it down to merit  haha.  ( Else I could easily PM you
too  without writing this in public)  




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~




1) On CFVF share personality, I wrote pages on  in the past years as you

 remember.


Some people  first came to know about CFVF  due to Chinwi  
( and well I too  talked about it in detail when it was Rs 15-16 and
 ran from Rs 14 to 70  one time)  





2) CFVF earning pattern is different to many shares. It a bit like plantations.
In 1 quarter , they will report a massive earning ( they did last quarter) . Then  earnings will go lower ( like this quarter) and  eventually flat
( to even losses if things do not favor them).




3) This is a cyclic share. Best not to  hold for very long time.  




4)  Having said that, since they reported around Rs 2 eps  for september
it is  not bad still.   With election run , CFVF  can go up a bit more  
from Rs 43 now  ( the top this time was Rs 56).   Next quarter too they can
report some profit ( but not very high profit). 



5) But unless they declare another dividend or management sells  CFVF  
as announced at CSE ( why I don't know they want to sell ) , best not to
expect very high prices.  Fundamentally the NAV   is at Rs 40 too.



I still don't understand why they want to sell CFVF which is the money
maker for CSEC. I really feel this CFVF share sale was a Shafter game
to price up.  I could be mistaken if they really want to sell  for some
reason I don't understand.  IF they actually sell , then CFVF can go up
again. If they don't ??


But we also need to know, Management can  easily say later,
the CFVF sale  deal didn't work out.  Then what ?
 




6)  Did you see what happened recently to CSEC after the pumping ?

 

7)  After election, if CFVF market interest is lost  and price has not
recovered  enough, it maybe better to sell and  move on to a better

share. If some favorable announcement happen to CFVF you can re-enter.


CFVF cannot make big profits every quarter. It doesn't work that way
as  I mentioned.




8 ) Many who buy CFVF are traders who want to make quick profit.
   That why it ran so fast from RS 20 to 50 ( also on rumors ).
   Now silence. Investors are few into this. 



   I saw a few traders commenting early  at Rs 20 and then decently
   commenting of value around Rs 40. That was a good call.






9) Anyway since they reported Rs 2 this quarter , it is still not bad.
     Best to wait to see today how it reacts after Rs 2 earnings
   ( which is better than last year) .




10)  Overall with present earnings ,this is not bad share to hold a bit more.
But holding for long term, or basing prices on market rumors and promotions
is not  wise with this kind of  share.




Not only earning matter , right ?




Hope this detailed analysis taking lot of time helps.


Good luck.