Re: CFVF - First Capital

[The Invisible]

Has to agree with Path. Its similar to my view as well not only for CFVF but also for any other stock.

[CKActive Member]

who bought, promote, who didnt bought or sold pre matured demote..Universal truth...
When you read analysis who ever wrote , please keep in mind that... Try to grab the facts but not their opinions ..

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

One of the Broker Huts (with a Female name in front) is vigoursly promoting BFN & CFVF these days.

[CKActive Member]

One of the Broker Huts (with a Female name in front) is vigoursly promoting BFN & CFVF these days.

Asha??

[slstockVeteran]

Hmm , I see this thread is getting heated in 2 ways.
Share price and member sentiments. Someone here has to moderate.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


1) ALL OF YOU FIRST READ below thread. Take what said there in wiser way ( not personal)

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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2) Below is discussion I had with Kithsiri on CFVF/CSEC few weeks ago.

Specially take note of the facts I mentioned on Shaffter games.  Did it happen again for CFVF?  

UBC, simplyfor the sentimental value being mostly IPO ones.
Bought JINS & CFVF together and managed to get out with the hefty gain with JINS but not with CFVF.
Let's hope for a good time to come where it will go past 70 mark.  

kithsiri
Can't say I did 't warn about UBC to you.
CFVF we have discussed and beaten to death in the past.
( I like to remember Chinwi also at this time when talking about CFVF)

When I discussed treasury related shares ( in so much detail )  in the past
I explicitly warned then these were not to be held for long term.

When we discussed and initiated then

CFVF was  Rs 14 ( later went  to 70) .
ESL was Rs 17  ( later went to Rs 68 or something )
( now ESL is also in trouble over politics and other reasons)

So in essense what am saying is

" Don't count on  high value expectations like the past ( like Rs 70)  
Once you get some decent  profit in CFVF get out.

If holding for longer term, in the next 2 quarters CFVF doesn't show very good eps growth, I would be watchful.


JINS, CFVF, CSEC and BFN are not the most transparent groups around.
We saw how the Shaffters played some games with CSEC.


Things are not same as in the past
Best be watchful so you won't get burnt.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



I posted below on July 24th when share price was around Rs40 and after another Shafter game.  

Rs 40  value ,  I think was a okay price based on future expectation and even speculation.


It is one thing to talk about it in Rs 20s but after Rs 40 can some answer me the bekow

1)  What is the intrinsic value of CFVF now ?  
What is the June quarter earning expectation.


2) Read the highlighted below .

a)  Are you 100% sure sure  this transaction  of CFVF will happen at very high prices ?

b) Are you 100% sure this is not a Shafter game to push the  share price further? ( which Happened from rs 40  to 50 as many got into  it on speculation of the sale.)

[size=16]We have noted unusual trading in the shares of the Company
on24th July 2019 and been further informed that there is market
speculation of a possible acquisition of First Capital Holdings PLC
("the Company").


..............
However, the Board wishes to strongly emphasize that the discussions are at a preliminary stage. Any final decision to proceed with the transaction will be
subject to several conditions. These include, the prospective investor  completing a satisfactory due diligence; obtaining corporate aprovals;
and, being able to arrange financing for the purchase.

Hence, and particularly in view of the uncertainty of the third condition, the disclosure of any information would have been premature.


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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I also like to add a few more thing for Knowledge and ethics



a) All of you Don't forget Chinwi  who introduced
CFVF to many first  ( I too talked about it a lot simutaneoulsy but Chinwi should be given credit as he was first to initiate long ago )



b) Once CFVF was trading at Rs 28.

But EPS was Rs 17.

Every other share ran like crazy in the bull market.
But not CFVF.

Do you know why ?



c) Don;t get Greedy with Hot potatoes.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SUMMARY :

Be careful on news, hot stocks and sentimental buys.
If they gone wrong   who is going to rescse you.

There are other fish in the sea too

[ruwan326]

"කොටන් අදින අලි පෙරහැරට ගන්නේ නෑලු"

Mid 2018 till last month I managed couple of posts daily and try to keep the hopes alive..... Some blame government, some wanted quit CSE and etc........

As SLS predict early when the market turn Green all the wise/experts/etc people come back(some think they are wise/expert/knows everything about the CSE  ) .... When the market is down and out not even a trace of those............

ඔන්න ඔහේ මගේ Daily foreign transaction එකයි weekend summary ටිකයි කරගෙන ඉන්න හිතුවා මේ ටිකේ. පණ්ඩිතයින්ට තැනක් දෙන්නත් එපායැ,සෑහෙන්න කාලෙකින්නේ මේ forum එක පැත්තේ ගොඩ බැස්සේ .....

[sereneTop contributor]

Meanwhile in Some other Cyberspace


"NEWER1

Technical Analyst

I also exit "

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

The Hut with a ladies name in front is still promoting CFVF to his/her clients.
Target is 60.  
With or without Charts, some have to get rid of their Hot Potatoes soon.  

Meanwhile in Some other Cyberspace
"NEWER1  

Technical Analyst

I also exit  "

[sereneTop contributor]

The Hut with a ladies name in front is still promoting CFVF to his/her clients.
Target is 60.  
With or without Charts, some have to get rid of their Hot Potatoes soon.  

Meanwhile in Some other Cyberspace
"NEWER1  

Technical Analyst

I also exit  "

No issue. No babies here.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

You are right 100%.
Some get blinded with greed.
Later start crying.

The Hut with a ladies name in front is still promoting CFVF to his/her clients.
Target is 60.  
With or without Charts, some have to get rid of their Hot Potatoes soon.  

Meanwhile in Some other Cyberspace
"NEWER1  

Technical Analyst

I also exit  "

No issue. No babies here.

[slstockVeteran]

Me Kith Moderator mahaththaya,

Oya den magul kana හබන් කුකුළ da ?

So are you too planning to hold onto your Rs 40 hot potatoes
as broker huts and retailers will value and push to Rs 60 is it ?


ps : Before I see this report I can't tell anything. Check your PM.

ඌරෝ කැකුණ තලනකොට හබන් කුකුළන්ට මගුල් කිව්වලු.

So, 60 is unrealistic?

Luckily there was ATRAD to save Kiths ALE at 40.
Who will save this time. Hope this is not like BFN when it comes to the Deal.

The Hut with a ladies name in front is still promoting CFVF to his/her clients.
Target is 60.  
With or without Charts, some have to get rid of their Hot Potatoes soon.  

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

I was to get rid of it, once it goes above the 40 mark but decided otherwise even when it went to 50 briefly for obvious reasons.
I will not get any poorer, holding on to it even if it drops below 40 again.
Please check you PM.

Me Kith  Moderator mahaththaya,

Oya den magul kana  හබන් කුකුළ da ?

So are you too planning to hold onto your Rs 40  hot potatoes
as  broker huts and retailers will value and push to Rs 60 is it ?


ps : Before I see this report I can't tell anything. Check your PM.

ඌරෝ කැකුණ තලනකොට හබන් කුකුළන්ට මගුල් කිව්වලු.  

So, 60 is unrealistic?

Luckily there was ATRAD to save Kiths ALE at 40.
Who will save this time. Hope this is not like BFN when it comes to the Deal.

The Hut with a ladies name in front is still promoting CFVF to his/her clients.
Target is 60.  
With or without Charts, some have to get rid of their Hot Potatoes soon.  

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

I had the same bravery on LIOC sometimes back Kith. However I soon understood its better to bag profits and I sold. I think that was a good decision taken lately. If I listened to SLS who warned me in threads as well as by PM I would have saved a good amount. But we all behave in a way which we feel comfortable.

[NEWER]

Thanks serene to copy and paste my message here
I released my CFVF bought @ 22-23 level today by keeping hopes to re enter @ possible support
I am doing quick rotation to maximise my profit,  bcz  
1. Daily we are getting new opportunities with different counters with 3-4 ra up
2. At any time mkt may go for correction and to have cash in hand to buy @ Dips again
Till that I decided to catch another bus bcz especially as mentioned BIL by targetting 3.60rs and .......
Happy TRADING/ DAY TRADING

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Some never give up.
When one counter promotion fails, they tersely throw another name in as a passing remark.
And some are still foolish enough to take the bite and suffer later.

[nesta]

CFVF heated again, treasury rates are further down and expected the positive quarter results.

[sereneTop contributor]

Kith Ale...

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

My first target was breached and my next one, all are well aware of.
So I wait.  
Let it takes natural progression.  

Kith Ale...

[Topcat]

Congratulations who got profit with cfvf..I completely missed it.

[sereneTop contributor]

My first target was breached and my next one, all are well aware of.
So I wait.  
Let it takes natural progression.  

Kith Ale...

Yap Kith. Im not looking for other Ala Gedi.
But tiyena Ale athaarinneth ne until i feel the price settled.
Let people pupm and dump.Will remain calm and quiet until our time arrives

[slstockVeteran]

So


1)    Everytime Treasury bill rate drops by a few points  CFVF value goes
       up is it?  But results are released every 3 months !

2) No one answered my quesiton.

    Why did CFVF trade at Rs 28 with Rs 17 eps  (PE of 1.5) one time?



3) So increasing it from Rs 25 to 50 in 1 month is  not enough for now ?
  
    At this rate maybe CFVF should to  Rs 60 first and  then Rs 100 right
    by next week itself ? 
 
    Wait interest rate will drop further in few weeks.
    So how about valuing it to Rs 200 at that. 

    No wait. It will drop again .Selling will happen at 7 times book value.
    Let value it to  Rs 300.


3)  What the real value of CFVF with present situation?

     No one here will tell or knows . 
     But just ride with trend , rumors and manipulation is it ?


History repeats .

I guess SLS should be not be idiot and be left out.
Join the trend riders and make a trade.
Okay let me see I can do it today.

[slstockVeteran]

Hey ,  how about renaming  CFVF to  "Kith's Kiri Ale" ?

Might be prasthawa pirula   in the future


Thread title I will  rename   "Mod Kith Ale."

[LeonTop contributor]

Sentiment on CFVF rejuvenated yday may be with the rate cut, may be with selling news. Whatever the reasons we got to be cautions as what we do with CFVF.
Making losses is painful, selling premature & watch the share run is more painful. Having a suitable balance is the challenge.

[sereneTop contributor]

So


     No one here will tell or knows . 
     But just ride with trend , rumors and manipulation is it ?

This thread itself is a Self explanatory.
Lets ride without big fuzz.

[slstockVeteran]

Sentiment on CFVF rejuvenated yday may be with the rate cut, may be with selling news. Whatever the reasons we got to be cautions as what we do with CFVF.
Making losses is painful, selling premature & watch the share run is more painful. Having a suitable balance is the challenge.

Was there a further CB  rate cut yesterday ( after June ?)
Did I miss anything?