CFVF - First Capital

This is the mostly discussed stock on these days,Since it has no separate thread I thought to start a new thread for CFVF as it deserved.

In a envirenment of reducing interest rates,companies doing bond trading is benifited.
CFVF and ESL are the listed companies doing this business.

I took 364 days T bills as a indicator of the movement of interest rates.
This is how it appears,

Column1 EPS T-Bills 364 days CFVFclosed price Sep-11 0.57 7.31 18.5 Dec-11 -2.12 9.31 16.1 Mar-12 -0.72 11.32 11 Jun-12 0.34 12.88 10 Sep-12 0.72 13.02 15 Dec-12 0.79 11.69 12 Mar-13 2.61 11.35 11.2 Jun-13 0.61 10.66 18.7 Sep-13 0.28 10.57 14.8 Dec-13 1.57 8.29 17.5 Mar-14 0.71 7.05 19.3 Jun-14 2.07 6.99 20.3

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Falling interest rates have increased the profitability of cfvf,when t-bills falling the share price is getting up.During september 2014 interest rates further declined,so we can expect very healthy EPS for sep quarter.

Let's look at the dividend paid by the CFVF,
             EPS                       Dividend
09/10     6.38                       5
10/11     9.23                       0
11/12     -1.69                      2
12/13     4.57                       0
13/14     3.13                       4

For 14/15 EPS will be 12-15,
So what would be the Dividend then 

Now have a look on a technical aspect,

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On daily charts price moved above 161.8% of fib level which is 43, with a good volume support.
MACD and ADX also showing a strong trend.
Weekly and Monthly charts also looking good.
According to Fib levels next target would be 66,which is 261.8% of fib retracement.

This is my view,I may be biased as I'm holding some 

Good one.. really makes sense when this is compared with the interest rates.. thanks

I like to write small observation. As per reports , at the moment they have over 16 billion financial investments - Held for trading.

They had 3.7 billion as financial investments (Held for trading) at March 2012. The same at March 2013 was 10.8 billion. (FR march end 2013)

That means they have acquired 7 billion in 2012/13 when the rates were @ 11.32% -13% .

From March 2014 to June 14 they have acquired 5 billion bonds @ 7%.

chinwi wrote:I like to write small observation.  As per reports , at the moment they have over 16 billion financial investments - Held for trading.

They had 3.7 billion as financial investments (Held for trading) at March 2012. The same at March 2013 was 10.8 billion.  (FR march end 2013)

That means they have acquired 7 billion in 2012/13 when the rates were @ 11.32% -13% .

From March 2014 to June 14 they have acquired 5 billion bonds @ 7%.

Yes Chinwi,Best part is yet to come 

Steep parallel shift downwards on yield curve witnessed during week


By Wealth Trust Securities
Driven by the outcome of the monitory policy meeting for the month of September at where access to Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) window of 6.50% was limited to three times per calendar month with effect from 1 October 2014 and cancellation of its OMO (Open Market Operations) auctions which will result in a surge in liquidity to above Rs. 300 billion in the near term, saw secondary market bond yields plummet during the week, reflecting a steep parallel shift downwards of the yield curve for a second consecutive week.
The outcome of the weekly Treasury bill auction at where the weighted average of the 364 day bill was seen dipping below 6.00% for the first time in history to 5.89% and future expectations of it as well was seen adding further momentum to the bullish momentum.
Activity remained very high during the week ending 26 September, with the market favourite maturities of 1 May 2021, 1 July 2022 and 1 January 2024 reflecting the sharpest week on week drops of 51 basis points (bp) and 53 bp each respectively to weekly lows of 7.05%, 7.20% and 7.52%. In addition, the two year maturity of 1 April 2016 was seen dipping to a low of 6.10%, the three year maturity of 15 May 2017 to a low of 6.30%, the two four year maturities (i.e. 01.04.2018 and 15.08.2018) to lows of 6.40% each, the five year maturity of 1 July 2019 to a low of 6.53% and the two fifteen year maturities (i.e. 01.01.2029 and 01.05.2029) to lows of 8.70% each.
Meanwhile, today’s (Monday) Treasury bond auction, the first in two months will have a total amount Rs. 2 billion on offer, consisting of Rs. 1 billion on the eight year maturity of 1 October 2022 and Rs. 1 billion on the fifteen year maturity of 1 May 2029 which pay semiannual coupons of 10.00% and 13.00% respectively. In secondary bill markets, the 364 day bill was quoted at 5.65/75 and the 182 day bill at 5.50/60.
In money markets, surplus liquidity was seen increasing to close the week at a seven month high of Rs. 79.50 billion as overnight call money and repo rates tumbled to average 6.43% and 6.25% respectively against its previous week’s averages of 6.67% and 6.52%.




Rupee dips during the week
Meanwhile in dollar/rupee markets, the USD/LKR rate lost ground during the week to close the week at Rs. 130.35/45 against its previous week’s closing levels of 130.28/30 on the back of importer demand. The daily average USD/LKR traded volume for the first four trading days of the week ending 26 September was at $ 86.77 million.
Some of the closing forward dollar rates that prevailed in the market were 1 month – 130.82; 3 months – 131.46 and 6 months – 132.44.

I like the way you analyse PF. Thanks!

HUNTER wrote:I like the way you analyse PF. Thanks!  

I also...

 
good analysis pf. thanks .. i think next fib level target 66 is not much away.

Did they not give a 15/= dividend in 2009 ?

Backstage wrote:Did they not give a 15/= dividend in 2009 ?

Yes that was before 3:1 split,I have adjusted the dividend 

I saw one analysis some where in the cyber world saying that CFVF is going to touch Rs120 as REXP did it.

Now I can't remember where it was? Dan mata mathaka ne

A also saw

stocks hunter wrote:I saw one analysis some where in the cyber world saying that CFVF is going to touch Rs120 as REXP did it.

Now I can't remember where it was? Dan mata mathaka ne

What I noticed in history 2009/10 CFVF traded with EPS 10 x PE 10 = Rs.100/- with their peak point. History will repeat again.
So, I Predict atleast CFVF will trade EPS 15 X PE 8 = Rs.120/- at one point.
My target By Dec14 CFVF to trade between Rs.100/- & 150/-.

cse.see wrote:What I noticed in history 2009/10 CFVF traded with EPS  10 x PE 10 = Rs.100/- with their peak point. History will repeat again.
So, I Predict atleast CFVF will trade EPS 15 X PE 8 = Rs.120/- at one point.
My target By Dec14 CFVF to trade between Rs.100/- & 150/-.

I wish your predictions may come true. ( I also lately got few thousands of CFVF)

cse.see wrote:What I noticed in history 2009/10 CFVF traded with EPS  10 x PE 10 = Rs.100/- with their peak point. History will repeat again.
So, I Predict atleast CFVF will trade EPS 15 X PE 8 = Rs.120/- at one point.
My target By Dec14 CFVF to trade between Rs.100/- & 150/-.

Every calculation looks good. BTW how did you come out with EPS of 15?? Any proper explanations? In the very first comment also there were no symptoms for EPS 15. Last time dividend 15 means 5 rupee after split.

In another comment also I found similar EPS but never got answer. Becz I couldn't workout that figure by discounting their investment portfolio...

This may be a good research report. We have to pay and download. Is any of our members have direct access to this report?

First Capital Holdings PLC: Business description, financial summary, 3yr and interim financials, key statistics/ratios and historical ratio analysis.


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Historical data, ratios mainly...

Your analysis is better than these standard ones

Few red days would do better 

This could be in a consolidation stage.. Have to check charts.. I collected a very little without even looking at charts lately.

Yes. 100% TRUE.
This is CFVF collection period.
Inteligent investors on game now.
I am now 100% with CFVF.
No other shares I can see in CSE. Next month all will say CFVF, CFVF...CFVF, CFVF...CFVF,CFVF.
My guess Rs.120/- to pass.
CSEC, ESL & COCR will follow CFVF.

cse.see wrote:Yes. 100% TRUE.
This is CFVF collection period.
Inteligent investors on game now.
I am now 100% with CFVF.
No other shares I can see in CSE. Next month all will say CFVF, CFVF...CFVF, CFVF...CFVF,CFVF.
My guess Rs.120/- to pass.
CSEC, ESL & COCR will follow CFVF.

Any reasonsn for ur promotion? I would say this promotion.. There is a possibility it could go up but ur message doesn't indicate its direction. I presume u are either bigshot who is dumping ur holding or very innocent who has very short life at mkt.

Jana1 wrote:

cse.see wrote:Yes. 100% TRUE.
This is CFVF collection period.
Inteligent investors on game now.
I am now 100% with CFVF.
No other shares I can see in CSE. Next month all will say CFVF, CFVF...CFVF, CFVF...CFVF,CFVF.
My guess Rs.120/- to pass.
CSEC, ESL & COCR will follow CFVF.

Any reasonsn for ur promotion? I would  say this promotion.. There is a possibility it could go up but ur message doesn't indicate its direction. I presume u are either bigshot who is dumping ur holding or very innocent who has very short life at mkt.

Hmm.....


Rates n next reports........ Is the signal to say it will go.......
Surely inside information give edge to limited people to CATCH THE OPPORTUNITY.....

I dont feel that is cse.see - the real one..

However, CFVF is on a consolidation.

smallville wrote:I dont feel that is cse.see - the real one..

However, CFVF is on a consolidation.

smallville wrote:
However, CFVF is on a consolidation.

Now recovering