The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

Join the forum, it's quick and easy

The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.
Please send an email to contact.lankaninvestor@gmail.com if you face any technical difficulties when posting
Search
Display results as :
Advanced Search
Latest topics
Coronavirus UpdatesMon Feb 08, 2021 9:56 amThe Invisible
Browns Investments updateTue Feb 02, 2021 2:38 pmYin-Yang
ACL CablesWed Dec 30, 2020 7:22 pmsubash
Merry Christmas to AllTue Dec 29, 2020 4:53 pmchutiputha
Trading Journal Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:33 pmxmart
HVA FoodsFri Dec 04, 2020 10:25 amThe Invisible
Tokyo CementMon Nov 23, 2020 9:42 amRajapaksap
Insider Dealings Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:30 ampjrngroup
UML United MotorsTue Nov 10, 2020 8:50 amThe Invisible
ExpolankaMon Nov 09, 2020 8:46 pmsmallville
Plantation Sector UpdatesSat Nov 07, 2020 8:15 amRajapaksap
HAYC - HaycarbFri Nov 06, 2020 12:11 pmsubash
LWL.N0000 (Lanka Walltiles PLC)Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:50 amsubash
Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

Go down
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:03 pm
Message reputation : 100% (3 votes)
@First Guy wrote:path - please don't take it personal. It should be a debate on views and not people. it's not fighting people with tools or weapons but tools used and how you get to the final destination.


FG I don't take anything personal as this is not my FB page or a personal blog.

Glad to see you open your mouth,but you couldn't  voice to appreciate a finding of a share which gave a 40% gain in very short period.Instead drag the topic somewhere else.This is called sucker effect.
This is the change of  sentiment of members of SENTIMENT forum.way to go. cheers

@First Guy wrote:
You can go to a place by road or air. some not accessible by air and some not by road. sometimes it is quicker to go by road (short distance). But in most cases both are possible but time, cost, effort vary. Smile

It's personal preference to use air or road,but Aeroplanes have no right to land on roads where poor people travel rabbit

Nothing PERSONAL FG Very Happy
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Longterm view of ASI

Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:14 pm
Message reputation : 100% (12 votes)
This is the longterm view of ASI.

All these are publicly available data anyone can access.

What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh18

As shown in the red trend line ASI is moving in a positive longterm direction since 2002.This is the longterm sentiment of investors.Once established it usually travel up to 25Yrs or more.So I expect to have this longterm positive sentiment till 2028-2030.
So longterm investors no need to have worry about there longterm positions till that.

During the longterm journy ASI had completed 3 primary trends.Marked in the chart.

Bull phase of 1st primary trend last about 5 and half years, bit higher duration than a normal trend.
Then it had bear phase waves till 61.8% fib retracement.

Then second primary trend started at December 2008.Bull phase had more than 2Yrs till Feb 2011 with few intermediate correction waves.
Then bear phase started and ended at July 2012.The value stands at 50% correction.

The 3rd primary trend started at July 2012.Bull phase ended at Jan 2015 with intermediate correction waves.Bear phase started there and ended at April 2016.Again 50% Fib level.Amazing isn't it.

If looked carefully there are small short term waves in all intermediate waves.

Now the fourth primary wave has started since April 2016. At the writing date what we are facing is a intermediate correction wave of a bull phase.

In summery

ASI is moving in a rather predictable pattern with average primary trends lasting 4-5yrs.
Each primary trend has bull phase about 2-3yrs.followed by rather short bear phase about 1.5-2Yrs.
Each bull and bear phase has interemediate waves and short term waves inside intermediate waves.

My conclusion,

ASI is on a longterm Bull phase.I expect it till 2028-2030
Now bull phase of the 4th primary trend has started.I expect it till 2018June -Sep,before next bear phase.
Axe
Axe
Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:10 pm
Thanks Path. Very interesting... Let's celebrate in 2018!
xmart
xmart
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 730
Join date : 2015-01-17

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:18 pm
Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)
Very nicely put, path +
Agree to the last drop.

Thanks
blacknights
blacknights
Posts : 266
Join date : 2014-08-28

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:46 pm
Great analysis Path. Good to see you back in action.
HUNTER
HUNTER
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1868
Join date : 2014-07-14

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:12 am
Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


------

I also agree with the ideas of cycles and super cycles in the market and the concept of, market swinging around a long term trend line (or curve), as expressed in some of my posts in the past.
While, in them, arrived trend line would be slightly different (but not much) from that of yours.


Last edited by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:43 am; edited 1 time in total
smallville
smallville
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1871
Join date : 2014-02-23
Location : Trying to figure out..

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:15 am
What an analysis Smile Very nice and commendable effort Path..


_________________
I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
avatar
roshana7549
Posts : 278
Join date : 2014-04-18

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:39 am
Thanks Path for showing us the Market direction in a different angle!!!
avatar
lanka
Posts : 624
Join date : 2014-11-26

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:13 am
Thank you,dear parthf
avatar
yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:10 pm
Thanks path for your effort and highlighting of the CSE directions from TA angle
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:43 pm
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
Thanks guys for encouraging words.


@HUNTER wrote:Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


I was saying this for longtime,but didn't go in to details.Infact I hinted downfall in Jan 2015 by saying the bull is Two years old,Can't remember the thread.
First Guy
First Guy
Posts : 2558
Join date : 2014-02-22

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:19 pm
Thanks for the ASI chart and analysis path!
avatar
kollongaha
Posts : 20
Join date : 2016-03-29

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:41 pm
Thank you very much Path. much much appreciated . great TA.
Axe
Axe
Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:15 pm
Message reputation : 100% (5 votes)
CFVF has come down sharply after reaching 34.8... Now it's trading at 50% retracement level at 28-28.10... The order book was very bring throughot the day but became active towards the latter part of the day,, It looks like we could do some trading in case if ASI turns back up...

Have you guys made similar observations?
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty beginning of second intermediate trend

Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:29 pm
Message reputation : 100% (8 votes)
ASI made turnaround at 50% Fib correction I said in this thread.At that point total turnover become high and ASI bounce back sharply.It's a good positive sign.

Following chart shows ASI movement with Fib levels.

RSI made a acute turn from oversold region and crossed the trend line.
MACD is about to make a turn, around "0" line.Once done it's a very bullish sign.

I expect ASI to move up from here to form the second intermediate trend of 4th primary trend I stated in earlier.

What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh19
avatar
Future123
Active Member
Active Member
Posts : 1435
Join date : 2014-04-09

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:01 pm
Thanks a lot Path.
avatar
The Alchemist
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 649
Join date : 2014-02-25

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:20 pm
Interesting ! Thanks Pathfinder
avatar
yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:35 am
Thanks Path
First Guy
First Guy
Posts : 2558
Join date : 2014-02-22

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:56 am
Thank you
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Poultry stocks

Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:43 pm
Message reputation : 100% (4 votes)
As a group, poultry is now showing good buy signals. Very Happy
avatar
yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:47 pm
ok....thanks path
avatar
lanka
Posts : 624
Join date : 2014-11-26

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:30 am
Thanks, dear Path
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty few charts

Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:46 pm
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
Thought to update few charts,

JKH,

JKH daily chart shows rounding bottom,Price line move above 10 day SMA,with RSI making a move above trend line,MACD crossing near 0 line.Technically JKH is a bullish counter.

What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh20
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty AEL chart

Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:04 pm
Message reputation : 100% (3 votes)
AEL also shows bullish trend,

Price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,MACD crossing.

What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh21
pathfinder
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor
Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23

What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty AAIC chart

Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:19 pm
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
Another bullish counter,

PSAR down and price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,A MACD crossing as well.

What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh22
Back to top
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum