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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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+29
serene
karuna2
bullstreet
mymoney
dhanurrox
Danidu
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Yin-Yang
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The Alchemist
kollongaha
blacknights
First Guy
Future123
Axe
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yellow knife
lanka
malan 100
Leon
roshana7549
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HUNTER
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smallville
Rana
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pathfinder
33 posters

    What to Analyse

    pathfinder
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    • Post n°51

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by pathfinder Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:03 pm

    First Guy wrote:path - please don't take it personal. It should be a debate on views and not people. it's not fighting people with tools or weapons but tools used and how you get to the final destination.


    FG I don't take anything personal as this is not my FB page or a personal blog.

    Glad to see you open your mouth,but you couldn't  voice to appreciate a finding of a share which gave a 40% gain in very short period.Instead drag the topic somewhere else.This is called sucker effect.
    This is the change of  sentiment of members of SENTIMENT forum.way to go. cheers

    First Guy wrote:
    You can go to a place by road or air. some not accessible by air and some not by road. sometimes it is quicker to go by road (short distance). But in most cases both are possible but time, cost, effort vary. Smile

    It's personal preference to use air or road,but Aeroplanes have no right to land on roads where poor people travel rabbit

    Nothing PERSONAL FG Very Happy
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    • Post n°52

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Longterm view of ASI

    Post by pathfinder Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:14 pm

    This is the longterm view of ASI.

    All these are publicly available data anyone can access.

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh18

    As shown in the red trend line ASI is moving in a positive longterm direction since 2002.This is the longterm sentiment of investors.Once established it usually travel up to 25Yrs or more.So I expect to have this longterm positive sentiment till 2028-2030.
    So longterm investors no need to have worry about there longterm positions till that.

    During the longterm journy ASI had completed 3 primary trends.Marked in the chart.

    Bull phase of 1st primary trend last about 5 and half years, bit higher duration than a normal trend.
    Then it had bear phase waves till 61.8% fib retracement.

    Then second primary trend started at December 2008.Bull phase had more than 2Yrs till Feb 2011 with few intermediate correction waves.
    Then bear phase started and ended at July 2012.The value stands at 50% correction.

    The 3rd primary trend started at July 2012.Bull phase ended at Jan 2015 with intermediate correction waves.Bear phase started there and ended at April 2016.Again 50% Fib level.Amazing isn't it.

    If looked carefully there are small short term waves in all intermediate waves.

    Now the fourth primary wave has started since April 2016. At the writing date what we are facing is a intermediate correction wave of a bull phase.

    In summery

    ASI is moving in a rather predictable pattern with average primary trends lasting 4-5yrs.
    Each primary trend has bull phase about 2-3yrs.followed by rather short bear phase about 1.5-2Yrs.
    Each bull and bear phase has interemediate waves and short term waves inside intermediate waves.

    My conclusion,

    ASI is on a longterm Bull phase.I expect it till 2028-2030
    Now bull phase of the 4th primary trend has started.I expect it till 2018June -Sep,before next bear phase.
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    • Post n°53

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by Axe Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:10 pm

    Thanks Path. Very interesting... Let's celebrate in 2018!
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    • Post n°54

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by xmart Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:18 pm

    Very nicely put, path +
    Agree to the last drop.

    Thanks
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    • Post n°55

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by blacknights Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:46 pm

    Great analysis Path. Good to see you back in action.
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    HUNTER
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    • Post n°56

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by HUNTER Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:12 am

    Good one path.

    When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


    ------

    I also agree with the ideas of cycles and super cycles in the market and the concept of, market swinging around a long term trend line (or curve), as expressed in some of my posts in the past.
    While, in them, arrived trend line would be slightly different (but not much) from that of yours.


    Last edited by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:43 am; edited 1 time in total
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    • Post n°57

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by smallville Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:15 am

    What an analysis Smile Very nice and commendable effort Path..



    _________________
    I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
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    • Post n°58

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by roshana7549 Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:39 am

    Thanks Path for showing us the Market direction in a different angle!!!
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    • Post n°59

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by lanka Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:13 am

    Thank you,dear parthf
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    • Post n°60

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by yellow knife Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:10 pm

    Thanks path for your effort and highlighting of the CSE directions from TA angle
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    pathfinder
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    • Post n°61

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by pathfinder Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:43 pm

    Thanks guys for encouraging words.


    HUNTER wrote:Good one path.

    When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


    I was saying this for longtime,but didn't go in to details.Infact I hinted downfall in Jan 2015 by saying the bull is Two years old,Can't remember the thread.
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    • Post n°62

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by First Guy Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:19 pm

    Thanks for the ASI chart and analysis path!
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    • Post n°63

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by kollongaha Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:41 pm

    Thank you very much Path. much much appreciated . great TA.
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    • Post n°64

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by Axe Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:15 pm

    CFVF has come down sharply after reaching 34.8... Now it's trading at 50% retracement level at 28-28.10... The order book was very bring throughot the day but became active towards the latter part of the day,, It looks like we could do some trading in case if ASI turns back up...

    Have you guys made similar observations?
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    pathfinder
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    • Post n°65

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty beginning of second intermediate trend

    Post by pathfinder Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:29 pm

    ASI made turnaround at 50% Fib correction I said in this thread.At that point total turnover become high and ASI bounce back sharply.It's a good positive sign.

    Following chart shows ASI movement with Fib levels.

    RSI made a acute turn from oversold region and crossed the trend line.
    MACD is about to make a turn, around "0" line.Once done it's a very bullish sign.

    I expect ASI to move up from here to form the second intermediate trend of 4th primary trend I stated in earlier.

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh19
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    • Post n°66

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by Future123 Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:01 pm

    Thanks a lot Path.
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    • Post n°67

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by The Alchemist Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:20 pm

    Interesting ! Thanks Pathfinder
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    • Post n°68

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by yellow knife Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:35 am

    Thanks Path
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    • Post n°69

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by First Guy Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:56 am

    Thank you
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    • Post n°70

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Poultry stocks

    Post by pathfinder Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:43 pm

    As a group, poultry is now showing good buy signals. Very Happy
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    • Post n°71

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by yellow knife Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:47 pm

    ok....thanks path
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    • Post n°72

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty Re: What to Analyse

    Post by lanka Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:30 am

    Thanks, dear Path
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    • Post n°73

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty few charts

    Post by pathfinder Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:46 pm

    Thought to update few charts,

    JKH,

    JKH daily chart shows rounding bottom,Price line move above 10 day SMA,with RSI making a move above trend line,MACD crossing near 0 line.Technically JKH is a bullish counter.

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh20
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    • Post n°74

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty AEL chart

    Post by pathfinder Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:04 pm

    AEL also shows bullish trend,

    Price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,MACD crossing.

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh21
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    • Post n°75

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Empty AAIC chart

    Post by pathfinder Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:19 pm

    Another bullish counter,

    PSAR down and price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,A MACD crossing as well.

    What to Analyse - Page 3 Snapsh22
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