What's going to happen

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Many are worrying about the direction of ASI nowadays,I would like to give a technical view of the ASI in coming days.My analysis may go wrong,therefore please do your own analysis before taking decision.



This is the 3 months daily chart of ASI.It started to move from 6921 to 7531 within forty days (too speedy and was finding a reason to slow).Then started to come down.There was a huge selling on the 24th of the Aug,because of that panic selling  ASI bought down by 140 points within one day .As seen in the chart at 50% fib level on very next day market showed positive momentum.
But in the middle of domestic political turmoil and global economic crisis that uptrend couldn't sustain and again headed down.

On friday ASI stopped at a crucial level of 7215,That is exactly on 200DMA,Usually it's a strong support. I expect a Green monday tomorrow,But still down trend is strong as shown by other indicators. so it may start to going down in few days time if good positive thing doesn't happen.If so it will find a support at 7154.In worst case 7064 is the bottom.This is a just a short term analysis

In long term ASI has a uptrend.This is the monthly chart of ASI since 2003.


Everybody know the reasons why ASI had a big dip in 2009 and big up in 2011.

It will move up for sure.LT and MT players have not to  worry.ST people don't panic and sell your good solid shares at dirty cheap price.

New comers don't try to trade with fundamentally weak shares till you learn the art of trading.

[NuinthTop contributor]

Excellent analysis PF.

Based on positive political ground with coming good news from HR, world commodity price drop, latest technology-innovation used by companies (Specially manufacturing), GSP+ etc will move our economy for next level.

Recently I red (From some where) Softlogic & Ashaphillip stock brokers expressed positive market forecast for medium to long term.

Yes PF, no need to worry if you are holding good stocks with medium to long term plan.

Good luck guys.

[Future123Active Member]

Thanks PF

[slstockVeteran]

Great to see the tech update. Thank you. + rep.

* I see your view supplement NC's analysis closely .
Show both of you have good strengths in tech stuff.
* Also your present idea is bit closer to what I said sometime ago.

Happy to see we are in mostly in sync.

However all :
Note the power of the negativity can get evil at times. So if some manipulation combined with chain negativity comes.... you should know better now

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Thanks friends for replies,actually I didn't see NC's analysis at the time of post.He has done a very good analysis.It's good that I didn't see it before, if I saw it, I wouldn't post a new thread.

[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks Path. Super.
Who is getting fed up with these type of analysis.
I don't mind going through several of same charts with different perspective of different experts.
Thanks again.

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Thank U PathF,+++ for ur effort.

[kassTop contributor]

thanks path

[nihal123Top contributor]

Thanks Path +

[LeonTop contributor]

Thanks path grate analysis.
My concern is sell off by foreigners.

[DocStockTop contributor]

Thanks path grate analysis.
My concern is sell off by foreigners.

I'm so a greenhorn, but I think the rupee devaluation has more to do with it than the economy/political landscape.

[BackstageTop contributor]

Thanks Path, you under estimate that value of these posts.There are a lot of us hungry for informed opinion from those who care to share there work.

Doc; There is big money fleeing China, Japan, Malaysia, Brazil ect. Some are looking for safe parking places. I am wondering if even a fraction of that.......

[SrirangaVeteran]

Thanks Path. Really appreciate and expecting more.

[sereneTop contributor]

Thank U PathF,+++ for ur effort.

Chuti, PathF,+++ ...Mata nikan awl wage

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanx Path

[Defender]

thanks everyone! lets be positive!

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Now ASI has breached the anticipated support of 7064 and still going down.This down trend is created by falling blue chips with the fear of Super gain tax and other bills proposed by FM.

Whether it's positive or negative these bills should come ASAP,otherwise this uncertainty kills investor sentiment.

What is the technical view of ASI.

As shown in the chart ASI has moved within a nice channel from 2012.Every time it touched the upper level it has fallen.And when it touched the lower line it started to move up.Now ASI is very close to the lower value once again.And importantly 38.2% fib level also same.The value comes as 6980.I expect a turn around sooner than later.

On the figure shown there is a ascending triangle is developing.To validate it the ASI should vary between 6980 to 7500 for some times.If it happens ASI may have a breakout around first few months of next year to reach all time high.

If ascending triangle get failed the pattern is eligible for a broadening top or a ascending wedge pattern.Those are signs of bears.

[LeonTop contributor]

Thanks Path. +
I think signs of a turnaround are in the mkt. Volumes get drying. As you also said this super gain thing has to come to an end.
Also my feeling is mkt already discounted that too.

[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks Path...
Superb..

[nihal123Top contributor]

Path, your technical view is good.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanx Path

[LSETech Contributor]

Thank you very much path +
I expect ASPI to turn up very soon...

[mymoney]

Thanks Path....

COMB.N Break 160 is a good sign...

[umadhuranga]

Thanks for the update path!!

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Thought to do a quick technical update. There is a descending wedge pattern on daily charts with today's candle.I expect a greener tomorrow with few days of side way movement till market find it's direction.
ATM downtrend is so strong, need serious buyers to absorb all falling knives to stop this madness
Will see what's the news market is waiting for?