What's going to happen

pathfinder wrote:Thought to do a quick technical update. There is a descending wedge pattern on daily charts with today's candle.I expect a greener tomorrow with few days of side way movement till market find it's direction.
ATM downtrend is so strong, need serious buyers to absorb all falling knives to stop this madness
Will see what's the news market is waiting for?

Second reading of budget and the votes garnered.

pathfinder wrote:Thought to do a quick technical update. There is a descending wedge pattern on daily charts with today's candle.I expect a greener tomorrow with few days of side way movement till market find it's direction.
ATM downtrend is so strong, need serious buyers to absorb all falling knives to stop this madness
Will see what's the news market is waiting for?

Path
Not only knives but some blossoms are also falling.

Thanks path.

Good we can pluck blossoms

Don't pluck just pick after falling

Most anticipated and trusted trend lines and supports were shattered in a style by the merciless bear.
There are many negatives to feed the bear,

1.Falling China market by nearly 15% within this year with other world markets.
2.Ongoing investigations on some of the investors and broker huts keep investors away till the things settle.
3.BOP crisis,GOSL has to settle large some of  money during this year as loan settlements,in a situation of widening budget deficit.
4.Printing of money as a temporally measure has increased inflation,  interest rates will reflect this in near future.
5.No real development as promise by the new government.
6.No consistency over government's policies.

We have seen this kind of major bears before.Is history repeats ?
This is what happen after 2011,



ASI corrected till 50% Fib level 7800 to 4700

What's happening now,



If 50% correction happens ASI will touch 6200 from 7600.

I don't want to create negative sentiment,But this is what really happening.
Can someone like IMF rescue our economy as it happened in 2012.


Longterm investors have nothing to worry about short term fluctuations.
Mid term people have plenty of options which would deliver 30-50% return with the recovery of ASI,Grab those at right time.
Short term people better to be panic and wait till the right time comes.


Government has to act wisely here onward to regain investor confidence,Hope for the best.

Stability of the dollar & BOP issues should be addressed soon.
Then the general market sentiment will recover.
Otherwise ASI will come down to 6500-6200 levels.

Very 'good analysis ...Thanx Pathfinder

This down trend must be worse than the previous. Fundamentally the country economy was much stable during 2011-2012 than 2016. It was stocks overreacted and they were corrected. We didn't have this kind of external and internal pressure to the economy. The country was stable and had a consistent in policy making. Everyone knew where it was going.

Now the situation is worse than 2011-2012. Entire global economy is slowing down. All frontier markets coming down. foreign funds taking money out of risky markets and parking in more stable economy.

So some might get angry or laugh at my me. My expected bottom is below 4800

@ Seek

In this forum its only Dhanurox who said market will touch ASI 6500... He was criticized then....

Feel free to comment on any of your values.....Yet even though I am a long term investor I love to see ASI settling at least at 6200....

yes you're right YK. But I didn't find the reasons that helpful.

@seek - That is ridiculous but that's only my view (not laughing at you). I might ask what stocks will bring it to that level? If JKH drops like HUNTER expects, then yes. But there are many stocks that just can't go any lower IMHO.

Anyway if at all it has to go down, 5500 for me is the worst case. We might see some uptrend soon though short lived. Figure is just a guess.

Good one path..

In recent history, RSI of JKH has never gone down below 28.. Mostly it recovered by 30. And now we're very much closer to that level too.. If JKH support holds ground at 160, thats de reversal. If not 150.

Market RSI is 17 . lowest RSI after 2012 .MARKET pe is 17 , compare with china 15, india 21 , thai 22 .this also not bad. today asian markets stated high including china. japanese and hongkong above 2%. that mean confidence is gaining. so situation is not scary .market need to cool down.

There are many negative comments all over.I also have mentioned some negatives in this thread.Yes market is heading downward,I have mentioned that in this thread few times.
But the fancy numbers given by some members without proper reasoning is not acceptable.


People talk about a market crash as happened in 2011.First look at the reasons why market crashed in 2011,after the war many bulls get activated  and make a bubble,at that time market PER was 26.So it deserve a correction and it happened.

What's the market PER now,It's about 13 as per some broker reports,Just assume that corporate earnings are lowered by 10% (Some may but many not) due to various reasons mentioned.So the adjusted PER  should come around 15.Is it over valued to create a bubble and a crash.
Lets take a fancy number of 3000 as some wanted,these are the prices we are going to see
JKH     75
COMB   60
DIST     100
CARS     150

Market PER of 7
Are they dreaming??


Some people deliberately put negative comments to push the market down in order to buy cheap.Please don't get cought and sell your shares at a loss.

Technically 6200 has a good support,But if heavy weights like JKH and COMB come down 6200 will not support,In worse case 5800 is possible,But I think 6000 would act as a psychological support and turnaround can happen around that area.

I challenge all the people who put fancy numbers without proper reasons to come forward with acceptable arguments rather than behaving as fortune tellers.

Further References

1)

a) Original article of below
b) Part 1) c) as below

https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t7077p75-asi-at-6650-who-are-you-and-should-you-be-worried#60053

2)

part 3 of below
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t6747p60-are-we-made-up-of-waves#60118


3) why below was written
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t7152-my-cse-lies-over-emotion-oh-bring-back-my-cse-to-me



Just posting to support what Pathfinder raised , as I am on a internal mission to arouse some senses at CSE at this juncture. That's all.
Also it is okay/good for safety if one takes care to be prepared for the worst specially if one is short term.

Already there is lot of info given to see all sides if one chooses to impartially.

I really don't worry too much about the slide in ASPI. With time I learned it is a normal phenomena. I didn't sell any stock for the sole reason of market is going down. Of course it has opportunity cost. But I don't believe we can time the market perfectly.

Because I bought shares thinking about their intrinsic value(Except for few got for trading). As long as value is there no reason to worry about the ASPI.

For the time being my only issue is identifying the bottom of this trend so I can collect some more stocks at the ideal time.


Dear SLS,

This is a personal request for you. Please continue your presence at the forum. What we really need is your presence no matter market is going down or up, so we can be confidant and also continuously learn with your guidance and great insights.

What is worse is that those fortune tellers getting too much fanfare .
Maybe that is what they wanted        

pathfinder wrote:There are many negative comments all over.I also have mentioned some negatives in this thread.Yes market is heading downward,I have mentioned that in this thread few times.
But the fancy numbers given by some members without proper reasoning is not acceptable.


People talk about a market crash as happened in 2011.First look at the reasons why market crashed in 2011,after the war many bulls get activated  and make a bubble,at that time market PER was 26.So it deserve a correction and it happened.

What's the market PER now,It's about 13 as per some broker reports,Just assume that corporate earnings are lowered by 10% (Some may but many not) due to various reasons mentioned.So the adjusted PER  should come around 15.Is it over valued to create a bubble and a crash.
Lets take a fancy number of 3000 as some wanted,these are the prices  we are going to see
JKH     75
COMB   60
DIST     100
CARS     150

Market PER of 7
Are they dreaming??


Some people deliberately put negative comments to push the market down in order to buy cheap.Please don't get cought and sell your shares at a loss.

Technically 6200 has a good support,But if heavy weights like JKH and COMB come down 6200 will not support,In worse case 5800 is possible,But I think 6000 would act as a psychological support and turnaround can happen around that area.

I challenge all the people who put fancy numbers without proper reasons to come forward with acceptable arguments rather than  behaving as fortune tellers.

When market goes up the predictors raise the forecast uP UP and Up..

When the market goes down predictors forecast down , dowN, and doWN and DOWN...

When market goes up Manipulators push it further Up
When market goes down Manipulators push it further down.

Margins make one rich over others money in a Bull

But the margin burn your own money in a Bear

Bull climb in steps.. slowly
Bear jumps out of window suddenly without informing..

Market rallied from the 6600 region to 7500 before this crisis happened knw? he hee
And thos days this 6600 was channel bottom.. so the next expectation is an uptrend to the next top and it happened...
And in that context, if we stayed out, how would've we earned from BFL, ACL, APLA, KCAB, REG like shares that appreciated a lot from lower levels?

REG doubled and BFL nearly too.. So just becuz of tech calls shud we stay out from market or shud we invest or trade on short term basis and earn a few bucks? Market at 3000 might make even alarms go berserk to a trader and a heart attack to an investor.. And I think if you again take politicos added to this, who would be benefited from a claim like this.. ha haa...

Those days some ppl were asking me at 130 BFL was good neda? Then again at 150 BFL was good neda?
I didnt know.. I had not analysed BFL at that time..

Well.. one thing I must say.. U cannot drag the market down forever..

One reason is; the more this negative trend prevails, the more the Govt will be worried.
PM would be highly worried if anything below 5000 would happen.
Be it IMF loan, loan from here or there or any monies.. PM would be looking at positive ways to turn the tables..
This TK factor, though he's trying to make a noble by trying to gets the CSE culprits exposed, its also keeping other HNWIs worried.. Cuz what they do, try to fish in troubled waters can also be backfired against them.

Like I said once, if I want to sell few shares low and make it look like negative, for my own benefit to buy much lower, can it be taken as market manipulation? Or rather I trying to be smart (whether successul or not?)

On the other hand, even below 6750 was a doubt to me which shows us an extreme correction when December qtr results are on the cards.. If this was not the manipulation, we would've not seen
even 6300. We know certain companies are expected to cause a good comeback with their December results and now we're worried of below 5800???? Geez...

Look at the market now.. u see shares are sold at buyers price without any apparent reason. Sometimes its just 1-10 trades.. sometimes few 100s.. When shares are sold like this panic sets in. Then 1000s are changing hands.. But somebody buys knw?

if we're to take 10 year charts, we would not be looking at short term gains at all.

hi
very good analysis Thank you

As said and anticipated, ASi made a turnaround near 6200

Now some polar bears who gave fancy numbers have become super bulls.  
I think now members can identify their motive,don't waste your hard earn money because of those fortune tellers.

Technically ASI has got enough fuel to move up at least to 6550 if no ugly manipulation happen.
Happy trading

It's been a good thread...

One old theory is proving correct to me;

They say, when everyone is bearish and in a very negative mood, that is the best time to buy.
Because, by then, everyone has already sold what they wanted to sell; no one has any shares to sell further down.

The reverse is also true. The best time to exit the market is when all (shoeshine boys) are predicting the market to go up and up; recommending to buy and buy.

(I am learning words from jiggy)

"Jiggy Theory" really works.

few days ago i bought some shares when i found those shares are cheap and they gave me good profit in a matter of few days. i posted in the forum when i bought those.i.e  llub -300  lfin -103 ,lhcl -50 . i bought few comb too,..still not running.