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What's going to happen

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What's going to happen - Page 4 Empty Re: What's going to happen

Post by sashimaal on Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:18 pm

Good analysis and explanation Path !
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Post by smallville on Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:16 pm

May be 6500 stays a great support.. goin down here will upset de crowd as well.. now that we got approval for IMF loan, the first step towards recovery is kicked off.. so more good news on de cards can lift ASI from current status..

I didnt analyse ASI after 6530 is broken.. But 6500 is even not far as a psychological support. so lets keep de fingers crossed.

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Post by Leon on Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:47 am

Nice to see TAs rejuvenated again. Tnx to Path.

To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.
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Post by HUNTER on Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:54 pm

Leon wrote:Nice to see TAs rejuvenated again. Tnx to Path.

To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.

I thought you spent all cash on that house.......
Looks like market is more attractive than a house for some traders..
Very Happy
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Post by slstock on Sun Jun 05, 2016 5:49 pm

1)
I see many techies were looking at ASI 6370- 6400 region for support and bounce back.
But I want it before that if it can be helped Wink

In a post I made in mid May when ASI was close to 6700, I gave indication market can go red. Also gave an option to say ASI can test 6300 even if craziness happens.
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t983p975-cse-l-where-are-we-heading#68783


CSE is know to go crazy at times ( in short term). So predicting anything with 100% accuracy all the time is probability than reality.



2) Path said

"This is why I say market move by it's own forces, don't try to attribute it for the things happening around you.Because of this reason I always against unnecessary political arguments in a investor forum."

I partially agree with this.
Not fully.

When government make idiotic moves ( which ever government) it can have direct impact to stock market.

The crash from 6000 to 5800 was triggered due to the irresponsible way CGT was mentioned without clarification. It panic people a lot. It was clear. Else ASI 6000 may have held.


Same happened during MR time when mistakes were made.
Same happens when they do things to push market up too ( works both ways)

Those are not natural forces but external forces breaking market trends.

But bottom line is market will always find the level it want to be in medium term.
Short term there can be volatilizes upsetting market.

So political decisions do have an impact on market. It's a fact.
But I agree too much politics is not good.
I have even issued a note in the "Note to member thread" one time.


3)
I saw some post taken from Sunday Times where it hints CGT will be reintroduced from Oct 1st 2016.

Some minister said it.
Can we believe such?
Will Ranil make same mistake again.


But we can't prevent if it panics somebody to sell. ( right or wrong)

That why I say predictions ( technical or fundamental) has to be done with responsibility
as mass public is watching. It our duty.

If this crazy CGT scare catches fire and spread again via all forums and other sources, tomorrow can be Red even

I said it here as an example. Not to say CGT will be back.


Last edited by slstock on Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:15 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added some stuff /link in first part)

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Post by pathfinder on Sun Jun 05, 2016 6:59 pm

Thanks SLS for the comment.I'm not totally against political discussions and discussions on government policies,in fact I too involved in such discussions earlier,what I'm opposing is the partial comments from some of the people wearing colored glasses. Evil or Very Mad

What I'm trying to say is Mr.market take decisions by it's own.If market is on a bullish sentiment whatever the news comes it move up so same as in bearish market when bear in control whatever good news come ASI won't change it's direction.

If someone look at the ASI very closely ASI showed negative trend since Augest 2015 so any news came was taken as negative.Mr.market allow bear to rule for 6months.People tried to attribute it to the government,world economies,oil prices etc...

Then he decided it's enough and asked bulls to rule the market since March to May then everybody was in jolly mood and nobody was bothered to find reasons for the uptrend why????

Now again bear has taken the control will see how powerful he is.

A seasoned trader must be able to identify these cycles before the crowd and take decisions accordingly.
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Post by Leon on Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:08 am

HUNTER wrote:
Leon wrote:Nice to see TAs rejuvenated again. Tnx to Path.

To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.

I thought you spent all cash on that house.......
Looks like market is more attractive than a house for some traders..
Very Happy

ha ha you remember that. I'm trying to see a balance in both.
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Post by HUNTER on Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:28 pm

I like to contribute to that discussion on, if, the market movements are governed by external forces and events OR if the markets move on its own regardless of what is happening in the society.

Both sides may have very valid arguments and examples. But, in extreme ends, I would say, both arguments are wrong.

As I have observed, markets also have some kind of net moods (sentiments), and those moods act as 'filters' to external events.

When the market is in a bullish mood, and if a 'bullish' news comes, then the market overreacts to it. If the news is 'bearish', the market will, to a greater extent, 'under-react' to it.

So, a single news in (positive) correlation with market sentiments will exert a big impact while the news against the sentiments will have a lesser impact.

When someone has just won a billion rupee lottery, would he cancel his party if his wallet with Rs 1000/- is lost.
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Post by Backstage on Tue Jun 07, 2016 2:01 pm

Thanks all, this is very stimulating and educative.

Maybe the thread should be called "what might happen" Smile

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Post by pathfinder on Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:54 pm

Exactly Hunter that's what I say,No news can trigger the change of ASI direction.ASI direction is decided by Mr.Market by his own, nothing else,all other news and gossips may be contributing or supportive to the decision of Mr.market but those are not the changing factors.
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Post by dhanurrox on Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:12 am

market will boom.It wont fall.Desperation of palyers to keep market flat or little red was obvious last two weeks.

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Post by slstock on Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:15 am

pathfinder wrote:No news can trigger the change of ASI direction.ASI direction is decided by Mr.Market by his own,

How ?

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:49 am

Let me first quote  from Turn-Around of Peter Blair Henry...and support those who believe Market is Right...

" Stock Market reactions to economic reforms provide powerful forecasts of policy efficiency because they capture what author James Surowiecki call the " the wisdom of the crowds". Changes in the value of stocks reflect the average opinion of thousands of shareholders who do not care about ideological debates but simply want to know whether a given policy change will create or destroy economic value. Their collective assessment, as reflected in the national stock market index, is more reliable than the judgement of any individual...

What's going to happen - Page 4 9k=


Now the second paragraph...of the same book and let me now support the other side that Market is not Right and manipulated by one, some, few or many...


But rally how wise is the crowd...? Given the turbulence in financial markets since August 2007: it may seem like the height of either arrogance or ignorance to claim that the stock market is a reliable indicator or anything real..From Charles Kindleberger's classic work on financial crises, Manias, Panics and Crashes, to the burgeoning field of behavioural economics , there is a lot of evidence that the market does not always reflect the true underlying value of stocks, let alone anything useful about the broader economy....

What's going to happen - Page 4 2Q==

What's going to happen - Page 4 Z

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:57 am

If you are a long-term investor and If you have kept a note of different important events took place you can see whether news and incidents actually affected to market...

If you remove your coloured glasses and see events, irrespective of who was in power market reacted to news (wisely)

This if from my diary of investing...


DateInvestmentMarket ValueNews
8-Nov-1126,371,742.7827,302,429.10Daya Gamage
9-Nov-1126,396,622.4227,105,946.80 Bill passed
11-Nov-1126,400,473.9026,960,204.10 in parliament
15-Nov-1126,405,382.0526,406,773.80(Expropriation)
16-Nov-1126,405,382.0525,830,205.00
17-Nov-1126,408,824.1825,334,033.10
18-Nov-1126,412,257.2225,693,239.50
22-Nov-1126,412,257.2226,125,809.00
23-Nov-1126,412,257.2225,864,270.10
24-Nov-1131,514,547.6424,688,275.70

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:01 pm

Thus I would say expropriation bill caused market to go down..and love to see if a TA can show the real impact to CSE with above dates

*************************************

Market is apolitical and irrespective of who is in power again market reacted for news...


Column1InvestmentMarket ValueColumn2
23-Nov-1536,094,213.9643,103,424.91After budget 
26-Nov-1536,156,347.0942,199,037.79speech
30-Nov-1536,215,293.4942,100,800.10
1-Dec-1536,215,293.4942,329,547.93
2-Dec-1536,215,293.4941,284,137.64Budget passed 
3-Dec-1536,274,952.6940,747,680.35by 2/3 

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Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:03 pm

So my belief is market react to news... Is it wisely or not ?

That's debatable and those who believe that people behave irrationally only in CSE please refer above book, Manias, Panics and Crashes...

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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:09 pm

No doubt market reacts to news.
The scale of the reaction is more when the intent was to manipulate.
(Remember the recent hotel incident where a big investor's name was dragged in).

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Post by pathfinder on Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:56 pm

Don't take my point wrongly,News has an impact but it's not the deciding factor of ASI direction,when ASI is in a downtrend negative news has more impact than positive news,in other words ASI is more sensitive to negative news when it's on a downtrend.

Who is Mr.Market I'm referring to,Mr.market is the net sentiment of investors of CSE,At any given time there are people with bullish sentiment and another set with bearish sentiment,If net sentiment is positive ASI up, if it's negative ASI down,This is merely the heard behavior and Human psychology.

YK let's see your PF value with the time period you mentioned.As this is your PF and your choices of shares  does not represent total market hence the ASI.I'll add a chart of ASI for seven years as it's easy to discuss the matter.

What's going to happen - Page 4 Snapsh10

From feb 2011 to june 2012 it was a bear period,so all those news had negative impact.

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Post by dhanurrox on Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:22 am

upto 20, down to zero again.Nice control going on.See the trading patterns and times of AHPL,SPEN,SLT,DIAL...etc.Seems index flat game to continue today also

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Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:35 am

If I were asked, what would have the higher impact on market, I would choose 'rumor' over 'news'.
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Post by yellow knife on Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:07 pm

Well Path... Bear sentiment means investors believe the future economic out look is negative and often they come to that conclusion by bad news...2011 we had a bubble which was due to burst and that was the beginning of bear...but the declining rate accelerated with lot of negative news...


DateNews
13-Feb-12Oil price increase  and
14-Feb-12 Iranian sanctions
15-Feb-12A fisherman killed in Chilaw protesting against oil pirce increase
16-Feb-12Spot dollar at 119 after free float
17-Feb-12
15-Feb-12
22-Feb-12
23-Feb-12
26-Feb-12
28-Feb-12
1-Mar-12spot dollar at 123
2-Mar-12
5-Mar-12
6-Mar-12
12-Mar-12
13-Mar-12
14-Mar-12
15-Mar-12Spot dollar 124.00
16-Mar-12
19-Mar-12
20-Mar-12losing geneva human rights
21-Mar-12spot dollar 130
23-Mar-12
26-Mar-12
28-Mar-12
30-Mar-12dollar at 127
2-Apr-12
4-Apr-12IMF 400 million
5-Apr-12
10-Apr-12
17-Apr-12
19-Apr-12
23-Apr-12spot dollar 131.60
24-Apr-12
27-Apr-12
2-May-12
3-May-12
7-May-12
9-May-12NSB TFC Deal
10-May-12
11-May-12
14-May-12
17-May-12
18-May-12Sarath Fonseka
22-May-12Sarath fonseka released
23-May-12
24-May-12
25-May-12

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What's going to happen - Page 4 Empty Re: What's going to happen

Post by yellow knife on Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:13 pm

in the same manner most of following were negative


Column1Column2Column3
17-Aug-15General Election
19-Aug-15Ranil Won 106 to 93
20-Aug-15Market correction -red ASI below 7500
21-Aug-15
24-Aug-15three cabinet minsiters appointed, Managala, WijedasaASI 7331 
25-Aug-15cabinet yet to be decided ASI 7231.58
27-Aug-15
28-Aug-15ASI 7362
2-Sep-15Parliament innagurationASI7240
3-Sep-15
8-Sep-15Hayleys ESOP
9-Sep-15other ministers appointed
14-Sep-15
15-Sep-1570% ceiling on leasing vehicles by cbsl
16-Sep-15
21-Sep-15
22-Sep-15
25-Sep-15Geneva Human Rights
29-Sep-15
30-Sep-15
1-Oct-15USD @143
2-Oct-15
5-Oct-1570% Ceiling on leasing removed 
6-Oct-15PM delievers speech at Japan Parliament
7-Oct-15
8-Oct-15
12-Oct-15
13-Oct-15
15-Oct-15
19-Oct-15
20-Oct-15
21-Oct-15
22-Oct-15
23-Oct-15
26-Oct-15
28-Oct-15
29-Oct-15
30-Oct-15
5-Nov-15PM made a specail announcement on economy
6-Nov-15
9-Nov-15
11-Nov-15USD @ 144ASI 7019.23
12-Nov-15Avangarde expropriated as per Rajitha
17-Nov-15
18-Nov-15
19-Nov-15
23-Nov-15After budget speech
26-Nov-15
30-Nov-15
1-Dec-15
2-Dec-15Budget passed by 2/3 

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What's going to happen - Page 4 Empty Re: What's going to happen

Post by First Guy on Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:21 am

Most of us look only at local level news and developments and completely ignore global developments.

In the past those who have followed some details globally have been rewarded. For example those who monitored copper, aluminium prices were able to more accurately predict performance of certain shares and rewarded with good gains.

CSE can be directly affected by government policies and all these ad-hoc laws/taxes. But at the same time, it is part of a much larger area. Luckily Foreign exposure to our market is low compared to those like India so when global markets are affected we are not affected too much. Sometimes this is good.

But there are some facts. When oil prices were coming down there were sell-offs around the world including Sri Lanka. These events have also coincided with government policy changes. So it may not be easy to determine which had the most effect.

Latest was the Brexit. Now actually this may bring some investments into the country. But at the some point this is going to go out too. We are all too happy when foreigners invest but not so when they realize profits and get out? It's like when the bank is happy when you deposit money but at some point you have to take it back.

I am also one of those who don't follow much of these stuff but know how important it is. Some in the forum have looked at things in great detail and know what is affecting and what is not. Thumb up to them. Some have only the government to blame. (not that it should not be)

Last two days were interesting, profitable and exciting. But days like that won't continue for days, or it may. But everyone must look at a bigger picture. Who here asked why it went up?

Path - please continue this thread

YK - if you can include some global events in your table
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What's going to happen - Page 4 Empty Re: What's going to happen

Post by Future123 on Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:15 pm

Great work YK.

What I feel is before 08 Jan 2015 period was good for construction sector, tile, banking and finance and they were booming and profiting like nothing. It's sort of a vibrant era.

After 08 Jan 2015, good period for food sector. It's mainly consumption and companies engaged in food and poultry benefited a lot. Also export companies gained due to weaker rupee.

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