

- sashimaalTop contributor
- Posts : 5785
Join date : 2014-02-28
Re: What's going to happen
- smallvilleTop contributor
- Posts : 1871
Join date : 2014-02-23
Location : Trying to figure out..
Re: What's going to happen
I didnt analyse ASI after 6530 is broken.. But 6500 is even not far as a psychological support. so lets keep de fingers crossed.
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I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
- LeonTop contributor
- Posts : 1264
Join date : 2014-03-11
Re: What's going to happen
To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.
- HUNTERTop contributor
- Posts : 1868
Join date : 2014-07-14
Re: What's going to happen
@Leon wrote:Nice to see TAs rejuvenated again. Tnx to Path.
To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.
I thought you spent all cash on that house.......
Looks like market is more attractive than a house for some traders..

- slstockVeteran
- Posts : 6172
Join date : 2014-06-12
Re: What's going to happen
I see many techies were looking at ASI 6370- 6400 region for support and bounce back.
But I want it before that if it can be helped

In a post I made in mid May when ASI was close to 6700, I gave indication market can go red. Also gave an option to say ASI can test 6300 even if craziness happens.
https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t983p975-cse-l-where-are-we-heading#68783
CSE is know to go crazy at times ( in short term). So predicting anything with 100% accuracy all the time is probability than reality.
2) Path said
"This is why I say market move by it's own forces, don't try to attribute it for the things happening around you.Because of this reason I always against unnecessary political arguments in a investor forum."
I partially agree with this.
Not fully.
When government make idiotic moves ( which ever government) it can have direct impact to stock market.
The crash from 6000 to 5800 was triggered due to the irresponsible way CGT was mentioned without clarification. It panic people a lot. It was clear. Else ASI 6000 may have held.
Same happened during MR time when mistakes were made.
Same happens when they do things to push market up too ( works both ways)
Those are not natural forces but external forces breaking market trends.
But bottom line is market will always find the level it want to be in medium term.
Short term there can be volatilizes upsetting market.
So political decisions do have an impact on market. It's a fact.
But I agree too much politics is not good.
I have even issued a note in the "Note to member thread" one time.
3)
I saw some post taken from Sunday Times where it hints CGT will be reintroduced from Oct 1st 2016.
Some minister said it.
Can we believe such?
Will Ranil make same mistake again.
But we can't prevent if it panics somebody to sell. ( right or wrong)
That why I say predictions ( technical or fundamental) has to be done with responsibility
as mass public is watching. It our duty.
If this crazy CGT scare catches fire and spread again via all forums and other sources, tomorrow can be Red even
I said it here as an example. Not to say CGT will be back.
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Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
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- pathfinderTop contributor
- Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23
Re: What's going to happen

What I'm trying to say is Mr.market take decisions by it's own.If market is on a bullish sentiment whatever the news comes it move up so same as in bearish market when bear in control whatever good news come ASI won't change it's direction.
If someone look at the ASI very closely ASI showed negative trend since Augest 2015 so any news came was taken as negative.Mr.market allow bear to rule for 6months.People tried to attribute it to the government,world economies,oil prices etc...
Then he decided it's enough and asked bulls to rule the market since March to May then everybody was in jolly mood and nobody was bothered to find reasons for the uptrend why????
Now again bear has taken the control will see how powerful he is.
A seasoned trader must be able to identify these cycles before the crowd and take decisions accordingly.
- LeonTop contributor
- Posts : 1264
Join date : 2014-03-11
Re: What's going to happen
@HUNTER wrote:@Leon wrote:Nice to see TAs rejuvenated again. Tnx to Path.
To my eye 6420-6430 is a good support area. As small says if mkt comes to that level 6360 is not far away(FIB 38.5%) with extra panic from the crowd.
Being ready with cash is my idea & that may give you extra comfort.
Good results & dividends keeping the mkt at bay right now.
I thought you spent all cash on that house.......
Looks like market is more attractive than a house for some traders..
ha ha you remember that. I'm trying to see a balance in both.
- HUNTERTop contributor
- Posts : 1868
Join date : 2014-07-14
Re: What's going to happen
Both sides may have very valid arguments and examples. But, in extreme ends, I would say, both arguments are wrong.
As I have observed, markets also have some kind of net moods (sentiments), and those moods act as 'filters' to external events.
When the market is in a bullish mood, and if a 'bullish' news comes, then the market overreacts to it. If the news is 'bearish', the market will, to a greater extent, 'under-react' to it.
So, a single news in (positive) correlation with market sentiments will exert a big impact while the news against the sentiments will have a lesser impact.
When someone has just won a billion rupee lottery, would he cancel his party if his wallet with Rs 1000/- is lost.
- BackstageTop contributor
- Posts : 3775
Join date : 2014-02-24
Re: What's going to happen
Maybe the thread should be called "what might happen"

- pathfinderTop contributor
- Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23
Re: What's going to happen
- dhanurrox
- Posts : 779
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
- slstockVeteran
- Posts : 6172
Join date : 2014-06-12
Re: What's going to happen
@pathfinder wrote:No news can trigger the change of ASI direction.ASI direction is decided by Mr.Market by his own,
How ?
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Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
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- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
" Stock Market reactions to economic reforms provide powerful forecasts of policy efficiency because they capture what author James Surowiecki call the " the wisdom of the crowds". Changes in the value of stocks reflect the average opinion of thousands of shareholders who do not care about ideological debates but simply want to know whether a given policy change will create or destroy economic value. Their collective assessment, as reflected in the national stock market index, is more reliable than the judgement of any individual...
Now the second paragraph...of the same book and let me now support the other side that Market is not Right and manipulated by one, some, few or many...
But rally how wise is the crowd...? Given the turbulence in financial markets since August 2007: it may seem like the height of either arrogance or ignorance to claim that the stock market is a reliable indicator or anything real..From Charles Kindleberger's classic work on financial crises, Manias, Panics and Crashes, to the burgeoning field of behavioural economics , there is a lot of evidence that the market does not always reflect the true underlying value of stocks, let alone anything useful about the broader economy....
- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
If you remove your coloured glasses and see events, irrespective of who was in power market reacted to news (wisely)
This if from my diary of investing...
Date | Investment | Market Value | News |
8-Nov-11 | 26,371,742.78 | 27,302,429.10 | Daya Gamage |
9-Nov-11 | 26,396,622.42 | 27,105,946.80 | Bill passed |
11-Nov-11 | 26,400,473.90 | 26,960,204.10 | in parliament |
15-Nov-11 | 26,405,382.05 | 26,406,773.80 | (Expropriation) |
16-Nov-11 | 26,405,382.05 | 25,830,205.00 | |
17-Nov-11 | 26,408,824.18 | 25,334,033.10 | |
18-Nov-11 | 26,412,257.22 | 25,693,239.50 | |
22-Nov-11 | 26,412,257.22 | 26,125,809.00 | |
23-Nov-11 | 26,412,257.22 | 25,864,270.10 | |
24-Nov-11 | 31,514,547.64 | 24,688,275.70 |
- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
*************************************
Market is apolitical and irrespective of who is in power again market reacted for news...
Column1 | Investment | Market Value | Column2 |
23-Nov-15 | 36,094,213.96 | 43,103,424.91 | After budget |
26-Nov-15 | 36,156,347.09 | 42,199,037.79 | speech |
30-Nov-15 | 36,215,293.49 | 42,100,800.10 | |
1-Dec-15 | 36,215,293.49 | 42,329,547.93 | |
2-Dec-15 | 36,215,293.49 | 41,284,137.64 | Budget passed |
3-Dec-15 | 36,274,952.69 | 40,747,680.35 | by 2/3 |
- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
That's debatable and those who believe that people behave irrationally only in CSE please refer above book, Manias, Panics and Crashes...
- කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor
- Posts : 8821
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 63
Location : රජ්ගම
Re: What's going to happen
The scale of the reaction is more when the intent was to manipulate.
(Remember the recent hotel incident where a big investor's name was dragged in).
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I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.
Socrates
- pathfinderTop contributor
- Posts : 1450
Join date : 2014-02-23
Re: What's going to happen
Who is Mr.Market I'm referring to,Mr.market is the net sentiment of investors of CSE,At any given time there are people with bullish sentiment and another set with bearish sentiment,If net sentiment is positive ASI up, if it's negative ASI down,This is merely the heard behavior and Human psychology.
YK let's see your PF value with the time period you mentioned.As this is your PF and your choices of shares does not represent total market hence the ASI.I'll add a chart of ASI for seven years as it's easy to discuss the matter.

From feb 2011 to june 2012 it was a bear period,so all those news had negative impact.
- dhanurrox
- Posts : 779
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
- Yin-Yang
- Posts : 1319
Join date : 2016-03-12
Re: What's going to happen
- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
Date | News |
13-Feb-12 | Oil price increase and |
14-Feb-12 | Iranian sanctions |
15-Feb-12 | A fisherman killed in Chilaw protesting against oil pirce increase |
16-Feb-12 | Spot dollar at 119 after free float |
17-Feb-12 | |
15-Feb-12 | |
22-Feb-12 | |
23-Feb-12 | |
26-Feb-12 | |
28-Feb-12 | |
1-Mar-12 | spot dollar at 123 |
2-Mar-12 | |
5-Mar-12 | |
6-Mar-12 | |
12-Mar-12 | |
13-Mar-12 | |
14-Mar-12 | |
15-Mar-12 | Spot dollar 124.00 |
16-Mar-12 | |
19-Mar-12 | |
20-Mar-12 | losing geneva human rights |
21-Mar-12 | spot dollar 130 |
23-Mar-12 | |
26-Mar-12 | |
28-Mar-12 | |
30-Mar-12 | dollar at 127 |
2-Apr-12 | |
4-Apr-12 | IMF 400 million |
5-Apr-12 | |
10-Apr-12 | |
17-Apr-12 | |
19-Apr-12 | |
23-Apr-12 | spot dollar 131.60 |
24-Apr-12 | |
27-Apr-12 | |
2-May-12 | |
3-May-12 | |
7-May-12 | |
9-May-12 | NSB TFC Deal |
10-May-12 | |
11-May-12 | |
14-May-12 | |
17-May-12 | |
18-May-12 | Sarath Fonseka |
22-May-12 | Sarath fonseka released |
23-May-12 | |
24-May-12 | |
25-May-12 |
- yellow knifeTop contributor
- Posts : 6860
Join date : 2014-03-27
Re: What's going to happen
Column1 | Column2 | Column3 |
17-Aug-15 | General Election | |
19-Aug-15 | Ranil Won 106 to 93 | |
20-Aug-15 | Market correction -red ASI below 7500 | |
21-Aug-15 | ||
24-Aug-15 | three cabinet minsiters appointed, Managala, Wijedasa | ASI 7331 |
25-Aug-15 | cabinet yet to be decided | ASI 7231.58 |
27-Aug-15 | ||
28-Aug-15 | ASI 7362 | |
2-Sep-15 | Parliament innaguration | ASI7240 |
3-Sep-15 | ||
8-Sep-15 | Hayleys ESOP | |
9-Sep-15 | other ministers appointed | |
14-Sep-15 | ||
15-Sep-15 | 70% ceiling on leasing vehicles by cbsl | |
16-Sep-15 | ||
21-Sep-15 | ||
22-Sep-15 | ||
25-Sep-15 | Geneva Human Rights | |
29-Sep-15 | ||
30-Sep-15 | ||
1-Oct-15 | USD @143 | |
2-Oct-15 | ||
5-Oct-15 | 70% Ceiling on leasing removed | |
6-Oct-15 | PM delievers speech at Japan Parliament | |
7-Oct-15 | ||
8-Oct-15 | ||
12-Oct-15 | ||
13-Oct-15 | ||
15-Oct-15 | ||
19-Oct-15 | ||
20-Oct-15 | ||
21-Oct-15 | ||
22-Oct-15 | ||
23-Oct-15 | ||
26-Oct-15 | ||
28-Oct-15 | ||
29-Oct-15 | ||
30-Oct-15 | ||
5-Nov-15 | PM made a specail announcement on economy | |
6-Nov-15 | ||
9-Nov-15 | ||
11-Nov-15 | USD @ 144 | ASI 7019.23 |
12-Nov-15 | Avangarde expropriated as per Rajitha | |
17-Nov-15 | ||
18-Nov-15 | ||
19-Nov-15 | ||
23-Nov-15 | After budget speech | |
26-Nov-15 | ||
30-Nov-15 | ||
1-Dec-15 | ||
2-Dec-15 | Budget passed by 2/3 |
- First Guy
- Posts : 2558
Join date : 2014-02-22
Re: What's going to happen
In the past those who have followed some details globally have been rewarded. For example those who monitored copper, aluminium prices were able to more accurately predict performance of certain shares and rewarded with good gains.
CSE can be directly affected by government policies and all these ad-hoc laws/taxes. But at the same time, it is part of a much larger area. Luckily Foreign exposure to our market is low compared to those like India so when global markets are affected we are not affected too much. Sometimes this is good.
But there are some facts. When oil prices were coming down there were sell-offs around the world including Sri Lanka. These events have also coincided with government policy changes. So it may not be easy to determine which had the most effect.
Latest was the Brexit. Now actually this may bring some investments into the country. But at the some point this is going to go out too. We are all too happy when foreigners invest but not so when they realize profits and get out? It's like when the bank is happy when you deposit money but at some point you have to take it back.
I am also one of those who don't follow much of these stuff but know how important it is. Some in the forum have looked at things in great detail and know what is affecting and what is not. Thumb up to them. Some have only the government to blame. (not that it should not be)
Last two days were interesting, profitable and exciting. But days like that won't continue for days, or it may. But everyone must look at a bigger picture. Who here asked why it went up?
Path - please continue this thread
YK - if you can include some global events in your table
- Future123Active Member
- Posts : 1435
Join date : 2014-04-09
Re: What's going to happen
What I feel is before 08 Jan 2015 period was good for construction sector, tile, banking and finance and they were booming and profiting like nothing. It's sort of a vibrant era.
After 08 Jan 2015, good period for food sector. It's mainly consumption and companies engaged in food and poultry benefited a lot. Also export companies gained due to weaker rupee.
- PANTOMATH
- Posts : 231
Join date : 2018-10-15
Re: What's going to happen

