Re: KGAL.N0000 (Kegalle Plantation PLC)

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Nothing new to CSE.

last few days activities indicate the announcement is correct and some have acted on leaked information.

[Axe]

So this is True! Mr. Yaddehige wants a bottle plant it seems so Rich is pulling cash out from KGAL? Congrats to you all who got in last week!

[Hawk Eye]

Sudden interest in KGAL and AINS.

I collected when it went down below 90... Patience proved my techniques right..and I sold it at 142.60.

No leaked infos to me.. My hawk eye works better

cheers

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

So no announcement from Kegalle in the morning.. Dividend is real..

But despite all warnings its price immediately adjusted with current price + dividend formula..

Price has to come down at least by the same amount after dividend...

FG rated this as attractive long ago.. collecting on such studies is worthy than buying after all announcements ...

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Sudden interest in KGAL and AINS.

I collected when it went down below 90... Patience proved my techniques right..and I sold it at 142.60.

No leaked infos to me.. My hawk eye works better

cheers

Very good Hak Eye

Playing the game without inside info is the best.. I too have a small quantity below 90.. Being a long term player I will not sell and enjoy the dividend...

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

Looks like GLAS will be in for a rude awakening soon.  
Indians have to pull their socks up soon.  

So this is True! Mr. Yaddehige wants a bottle plant it seems so Rich is pulling cash out from KGAL? Congrats to you all who got in last week!

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Looks like GLAS in for a rude awakening soon.  
Indians have to pull their socks up soon.  

So this is True! Mr. Yaddehige wants a bottle plant it seems so Rich is pulling cash out from KGAL? Congrats to you all who got in last week!

And I know this(GLAS) one of watched stock of Kith Ayya..Cool

[First Guy]

KGAL had money, thus it was quite attractive as I pointed out but the important thing was it was trading at a huge discount to the net assets. By purchasing KGAL you were effectively buying a lot of cash+equivalents in this case they were short term investments. The doubt was what they would do with it and it paid off now.

But 145/- ? Too much for me and I disposed. For me, the financial assets was the selling point and although they still have some, I need to re-evaluate.

Also it's not possible that retailers were mainly involved in the heavy trading today. Many would have sold off, but if the retailers have bought this at 145/-, may god bless them. (unless good times for rubber begins or some other news that we don't know)

One could also say that the holders were lucky. If only we had realised the end game of RPC PM...

[harieshaTop contributor]

This dividend announcement gave the best ever chance to book profits/shed a share in CSE. 

All of a sudden holders got the chance to exit with a 50% gain for those collected @ lower prices or unexpected price for those who bough at peak prices.

Most of the holders booked profits for surely!

[First Guy]

This dividend announcement gave the best ever chance to book profits/shed a share in CSE. 

All of a sudden holders got the chance to exit with a 50% gain for those collected @ lower prices or unexpected price for those who bough at peak prices.

Most of the holders booked profits for surely!

which also means a lot would have got sucked in. Do you think the parent would have bought more? I think no. They waited till they hit 80% for this moment.

[First Guy]

As per the latest report KGAL had a net asset value of 144/- out of which Net financial assets (NFinA)(Debentures + Long term investment + Short term Investment + Cash - debt) were 58/- while others were 86/- which included timber stocks.

As per that, if we valued NFinA at 1x BV, then the market valued the rest of the business at 0.3x - cheap I would say. But KGAL would not have made a profit last quarter without the financial assets and tax refund.

After the dividend payment NFinA would comes to 13.32/-. If we maintain the same valuations (separately for NFinA and other assets), KGAL should trade at 40/- but since this is not enough if we assume 0.6x (average for plantations) it should be 65/-; 85/- at 0.8x (there are few trading at this range) and 99/- at 1x.

Last year KGAL reported 140m profits from associates. Most of these would be from the finance company (my guess) as finance companies were doing well. AINS is also in the books at a lower cost. Market value is around 100m now. The total return is good but even investment companies are trading below book value so we have to consider that. But current price before dividend probably considers the most optimistic scenario. Holders would get 40.50/- net of tax, correct?

So looking at these, for me a fair value would be in the range of 70-85/- Earlier I thought it would come down to 65/- range after the dividend.

(This is not a recommendation; just a view based on what I see)

[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks 1st G for continous assessment on KGAL.
Valuble.

[Lalinda]

Yeah. Really good for novies. Otherwise get caught in these @ higher levels.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Appreciate the analysis FG

[Hawk Eye]

Here we go. AINS

Nothing much yet on performance..But not much quantity in market

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Yah FG,Nice Work,Well Done..

[Gaudente]

I agree with First Guy's analysis and sold my shares today at 138 , I think the counter is fully valued already with no upside left.

[First Guy]

Thanks Gaudente. In fact I feel it's now in the over-valued region so I too exited above 140/- when I had the chance.

My assumption is that there is nothing more to happen. In the past we have seen companies giving dividends and immediately going for rights etc.,

Price is sliding slowly maybe because those who bought at the top are reluctant to sell at a loss but some do when the reality sinks in. I'm not following the order book though.

If short selling was allowed. This would have been a target for me

[First Guy]

KGAL will trade XD tomorrow which means if you buy tomorrow you will not be entitled to the dividend.

Some may try to sell this to you with many stories so be careful.

What price do you think it will trade tomorrow? Before accounting for the June results, KGAL's NAV would be down to 100/- now.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanx FG

Your duty performance as Admin and guardian of retailers is excellent...

[First Guy]

Thanks YK

Warning investors was something that slstock did in great lengths in addition to his deep insights. Deeply missed.

Today KGAL opened above 100/- (max at that time) and dropped as expected. Funny thing is now it's trading at pre-dividend prices even with a reduction of 45/- in NAV although earlier it was undervalued in my books.

There are many stories making rounds, with current situation I don't see much upward potential unless there is some solid news.

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Thank U FG,Ur effort is really appreciate.. ++

[LeonTop contributor]

Credit should go to FG. He handled KEAG almost single handedlly kept us informed.

[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks YK

Warning investors was something that slstock did in great lengths in addition to his deep insights. Deeply missed.

Today KGAL opened above 100/- (max at that time) and dropped as expected. Funny thing is now it's trading at pre-dividend prices even with a reduction of 45/- in NAV although earlier it was undervalued in my books.

There are many stories making rounds, with current situation I don't see much upward potential unless there is some solid news.

The Exact thing SLS wanted from us.
Hats off to FG.
Keep up the good work.

[CubedSol]

Ok. It seems KGAL has maintained/built up a short term investment portfolio of around 1Bn and NAVPS is around 9X/-

And the parent's holding is STILL almost 80%.

Care to do another analysis ?