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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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Latest topics

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» Should I Stick Around, or Should I Follow Others' Lead?
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sanjulanka
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කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
First Guy
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    Finance companies snapshot

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    Post by Backstage Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:51 pm

    First Guy wrote:I'll update this some time next week or weekend. Let's wait for LFIN to settle.

    Subdivision coming up ahead, wont settle down till next week.
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    Post by Ethical Trader Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:30 pm

    Thanks FG, YK, Hunter & all who commented. I hope usefull formule would be developed as a result.
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    Post by First Guy Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:17 am

    The above graph looks similar now with recent prices (which I will post later). But the trend line has moved down. ASI downtrend as a whole is one reason too.
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    Post by First Guy Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:20 pm

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    Latest
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    Post by slstock Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:45 pm

    Thanks. I think some companies have adjusted in price to an attractive level now. Specially considering 2016 dividend yield.


    First Guy wrote:
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    Post by Hybrid Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:20 am

    Looking at the graphs above it proves a point.
    however, we are still left which a heavy decision between P/B or ROE??

    I would take the middle path with PLC since it has a good backing and promising new 3rd quarter to pass with an attractive share price of 22.3-22.5!

    I have already gone for PLC in a big way. Hope my deductions are correct. let wait and see.

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    Post by First Guy Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:11 pm

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    Post by Hybrid Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:33 pm

    I will still prefer PLC as a better investment.
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    Post by First Guy Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:18 am

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    Post by Ethical Trader Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:57 am

    Thanks FG.
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    Post by xmart Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:23 pm

    wonderful presentation. with rising interest rate how will be the performance of finance over banking?
    and less vehicle registration, less leasing. who has a big loan book/ deposit base?

    i'm very much poor in analyzing finance sector. 1st guy, if you don't mind can you explain above?

    thanks
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    Post by HUNTER Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:46 pm

    I like the way you have presented FG.

    Are the calculations based on last year's earnings (Last 4 quarters)?
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    Post by First Guy Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:24 am

    xmart - what you said is one of the most important things to look at. Must check the segmentation of the loans also. But this detail I don't have ready at hand.

    HUNTER - yes last 4 quarters
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    Post by xmart Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:11 am

    First Guy wrote:xmart - what you said is one of the most important things to look at. Must check the segmentation of the loans also. But this detail I don't have ready at hand.

    HUNTER - yes last 4 quarters

    Thanks, i pulled my hair out trying to figure out banking & finance cash flow and finance status. being s self student of finance (never had commerce subject even in O/L, had an engineering accounting in my uni life; but i never paid attention) i found its hard to segmentation of their finance position and cash flow in to tiny pieces.

    if possible, please enlighten us with those fragment details.

    thanks
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    Post by slstock Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:39 am

    Thanks FG.

    X,

    Analyzing the finance sector is one of the easiert and hardest things.
    Few get it right.

    Some thought COCR Was god the way they grew initially.
    When we warned about the issues they can have some people must have thought
    we are jealous or carzy of them holding the super Rs 70 share then.

    Same can be said about BLI growth.

    I am not going to say much here, but if one Analyzed CFIN in deoth so much can be learnt about stability , growth , share price etc .



    xmart wrote:wonderful presentation. with rising interest rate how will be the performance of finance over banking?
    and less vehicle registration, less leasing. who has a big loan book/ deposit base?

    i'm very much poor in analyzing finance sector. 1st guy, if you don't mind can you explain above?

    thanks


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    Post by yellow knife Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:08 am

    FGs charts are real time savers for many.. Thanks FG for sharing...

    Central Industries which is a family owned business shows slow steady growth without running into booms ( and busts)..

    Should a company grab the market when its booming or should it confine to its stability....? This is something we have to discuss...

    Fiscal policies often affect to the market of vehicles.. Sometimes its luxury end that get the benefit and sometimes its lower end cars that get the benefit...

    Leasing and Finance companies based on their position get the benefit of these ends... CDB, COCR had a good time with booming of three wheeler.. Now that market is not booming..

    How much can these finance companies quickly adopt to fiscal changes is the problem...?

    Hence the past performance is not always represent the future of market potential...

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    Last edited by yellow knife on Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by slstock Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:15 am

    YK


    COCR made fortune initially with micro financing. The risk was not from leasing.

    CDB : look at the CDB thread. I gave huge amount of new info.

    Also best not forget leasing sector has benefits too still in certain areas.
    Not everything is negative Wink Wink Wink



    yellow knife wrote:FGs charts are real time savers for many.. Thanks FG for sharing...

    Central Industries which is a family owned business shows slow steady growth without running into booms ( and busts)..

    Should a company grab the market when its booming or should it confine to its stability....? This is something we have to discuss...

    Fiscal policies often affect to the market of vehicles.. Sometimes its luxury end that get the benefit and sometimes its lower end cars that get the benefit...

    Leasing and Finance companies based on their position get the benefit of these ends... CDB, COCR had a good time with booming of three wheeler.. Now that market is not booming..

    How much can these finance companies quickly adopt to fiscal changes is the problem...?

    Hence the past performance is not always represent the future of market potential...

    [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


    Last edited by slstock on Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:00 pm; edited 1 time in total


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    Post by xmart Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:40 am

    thanks SLS, YK & FG,

    as i understood, we cannot rely on past performance much on finance & bank sector due to its exposure to interest rate, other policy decisions of gov and overall economy of the country.

    those all data belong to low interest rate & favorable leasing business regime. now they have to find new products with high ROE to remain attractive. only thing we can get from the past is how efficient and strong their management and their ability to perform in unfavorable condition.

    by looking above, i get LFIN & CDB are innovative in their business while PLC is showing steady growth.
    i am not sure how interest rates will affect banking sector.

    thanks
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    Post by slstock Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:41 am

    xmart wrote:

    only thing we can get from the past is how efficient and strong their management and their ability to perform in unfavorable condition.



    smart guy Smile


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    Post by First Guy Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:29 pm

    xmart - I won't bother to look at cashflows in typical finance companies. In case of CIFL they were capitalizing interest of some real estate so were not getting cash but normally that is not the business

    Balance sheet is more important. Income and expense is based on that.

    How much loans/leases and what kind? Interest rate and income and also NPL depend on it
    How much deposits and other borrowings? What are the tenure? Short term maturing deposits are higher risk can be lower cost.
    Investment portfolio and other type of assets
    These companies are required to have certain amount of liquidity so it is normal to have some cash balance and not a big positive

    How much income comes as net interest and how much as fees? More fees means it is less volatile to interest rate movement.

    NIM, NPL, CAR, ROA, ROE, cost/income are other factors to look at
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    Post by xmart Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:56 pm

    wow, thanks FG. really helpful guidelines. read it many time. Smile i will try my own finance study then and update cheers
    First Guy wrote:xmart - I won't bother to look at cashflows in typical finance companies. In case of CIFL they were capitalizing interest of some real estate so were not getting cash but normally that is not the business

    Balance sheet is more important. Income and expense is based on that.

    How much loans/leases and what kind? Interest rate and income and also NPL depend on it
    How much deposits and other borrowings? What are the tenure? Short term maturing deposits are higher risk can be lower cost.
    Investment portfolio and other type of assets
    These companies are required to have certain amount of liquidity so it is normal to have some cash balance and not a big positive

    How much income comes as net interest and how much as fees? More fees means it is less volatile to interest rate movement.

    NIM, NPL, CAR, ROA, ROE, cost/income are other factors to look at
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    Post by yellow knife Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:12 am

    FG has done a superb analysis with past data of finance companies...
    SLS has provided enough information on CDB.
    Now Xmart is going to do his own homework and come back with nice presentation on Finance field...

    Very good and this is what we really need in a forum like this.

    Yes
    Micro Finance was the fortune to COCR as well as BIL .We have to be very careful on growth of Micro Finance as we discussed with a practical example .

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    Even though new registration of vehicles is purely depending on Fiscal policies, the second hand market is always remaining active.

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    Thus as SLS pointed out even though fiscal policies are not clear, the Finance filed will find its own way
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    Post by CK Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:37 pm

    Really important thread. thanks you all the contributors in this tread. Need to read it again from the beginning. study
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    Post by CK Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:03 pm

    Dear FG, can you give some analysis on csf ? What you think about the future of it? I heard some micro finance act came last week. Will it be an effect to micro finance companies?
    Comments and ideas of others are also really welcome.. I love you
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    Post by First Guy Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:10 am

    CK wrote:Dear FG, can you give some analysis on csf ? What you think about the future of it? I heard some micro finance act came last week. Will it be an effect to micro finance companies?
    Comments and ideas of others are also really welcome.. I love you

    CSF looks to be making a turnaround. look above impairment level last quarter but has not paid taxes. Need to see one or two more quarters to be sure but this is the time to take the call depending on how well and deep you can analyze. I haven't looked so deep. Has traded 1.30-1.60 in recent times.

    sls has talked about it somewhere here.

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