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RegisterFirst Guy wrote:I'll update this some time next week or weekend. Let's wait for LFIN to settle.
Subdivision coming up ahead, wont settle down till next week.
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sanjulanka
CK
xmart
slstock
Ethical Trader
yellow knife
HUNTER
Hybrid
Nuinth
balapas
GroundedKestrel
serene
Backstage
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
First Guy
19 posters
Finance companies snapshot
Backstage- Top contributor
- Posts : 3803
Join date : 2014-02-24
Subdivision coming up ahead, wont settle down till next week.
Ethical Trader- Top contributor
- Posts : 5568
Join date : 2014-02-28
Thanks FG, YK, Hunter & all who commented. I hope usefull formule would be developed as a result.
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
The above graph looks similar now with recent prices (which I will post later). But the trend line has moved down. ASI downtrend as a whole is one reason too.
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
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slstock- Veteran
- Posts : 6216
Join date : 2014-06-12
Thanks. I think some companies have adjusted in price to an attractive level now. Specially considering 2016 dividend yield.
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Latest
Hybrid- Posts : 745
Join date : 2015-02-03
Location : Colombo
Looking at the graphs above it proves a point.
however, we are still left which a heavy decision between P/B or ROE??
I would take the middle path with PLC since it has a good backing and promising new 3rd quarter to pass with an attractive share price of 22.3-22.5!
I have already gone for PLC in a big way. Hope my deductions are correct. let wait and see.
however, we are still left which a heavy decision between P/B or ROE??
I would take the middle path with PLC since it has a good backing and promising new 3rd quarter to pass with an attractive share price of 22.3-22.5!
I have already gone for PLC in a big way. Hope my deductions are correct. let wait and see.
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
Hybrid- Posts : 745
Join date : 2015-02-03
Location : Colombo
I will still prefer PLC as a better investment.
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
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Ethical Trader- Top contributor
- Posts : 5568
Join date : 2014-02-28
Thanks FG.
xmart- Top contributor
- Posts : 732
Join date : 2015-01-17
wonderful presentation. with rising interest rate how will be the performance of finance over banking?
and less vehicle registration, less leasing. who has a big loan book/ deposit base?
i'm very much poor in analyzing finance sector. 1st guy, if you don't mind can you explain above?
thanks
and less vehicle registration, less leasing. who has a big loan book/ deposit base?
i'm very much poor in analyzing finance sector. 1st guy, if you don't mind can you explain above?
thanks
HUNTER- Top contributor
- Posts : 1935
Join date : 2014-07-14
I like the way you have presented FG.
Are the calculations based on last year's earnings (Last 4 quarters)?
Are the calculations based on last year's earnings (Last 4 quarters)?
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
xmart - what you said is one of the most important things to look at. Must check the segmentation of the loans also. But this detail I don't have ready at hand.
HUNTER - yes last 4 quarters
HUNTER - yes last 4 quarters
xmart- Top contributor
- Posts : 732
Join date : 2015-01-17
First Guy wrote:xmart - what you said is one of the most important things to look at. Must check the segmentation of the loans also. But this detail I don't have ready at hand.
HUNTER - yes last 4 quarters
Thanks, i pulled my hair out trying to figure out banking & finance cash flow and finance status. being s self student of finance (never had commerce subject even in O/L, had an engineering accounting in my uni life; but i never paid attention) i found its hard to segmentation of their finance position and cash flow in to tiny pieces.
if possible, please enlighten us with those fragment details.
thanks
slstock- Veteran
- Posts : 6216
Join date : 2014-06-12
Thanks FG.
X,
Analyzing the finance sector is one of the easiert and hardest things.
Few get it right.
Some thought COCR Was god the way they grew initially.
When we warned about the issues they can have some people must have thought
we are jealous or carzy of them holding the super Rs 70 share then.
Same can be said about BLI growth.
I am not going to say much here, but if one Analyzed CFIN in deoth so much can be learnt about stability , growth , share price etc .
X,
Analyzing the finance sector is one of the easiert and hardest things.
Few get it right.
Some thought COCR Was god the way they grew initially.
When we warned about the issues they can have some people must have thought
we are jealous or carzy of them holding the super Rs 70 share then.
Same can be said about BLI growth.
I am not going to say much here, but if one Analyzed CFIN in deoth so much can be learnt about stability , growth , share price etc .
xmart wrote:wonderful presentation. with rising interest rate how will be the performance of finance over banking?
and less vehicle registration, less leasing. who has a big loan book/ deposit base?
i'm very much poor in analyzing finance sector. 1st guy, if you don't mind can you explain above?
thanks
yellow knife- Top contributor
- Posts : 6980
Join date : 2014-03-27
FGs charts are real time savers for many.. Thanks FG for sharing...
Central Industries which is a family owned business shows slow steady growth without running into booms ( and busts)..
Should a company grab the market when its booming or should it confine to its stability....? This is something we have to discuss...
Fiscal policies often affect to the market of vehicles.. Sometimes its luxury end that get the benefit and sometimes its lower end cars that get the benefit...
Leasing and Finance companies based on their position get the benefit of these ends... CDB, COCR had a good time with booming of three wheeler.. Now that market is not booming..
How much can these finance companies quickly adopt to fiscal changes is the problem...?
Hence the past performance is not always represent the future of market potential...
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Central Industries which is a family owned business shows slow steady growth without running into booms ( and busts)..
Should a company grab the market when its booming or should it confine to its stability....? This is something we have to discuss...
Fiscal policies often affect to the market of vehicles.. Sometimes its luxury end that get the benefit and sometimes its lower end cars that get the benefit...
Leasing and Finance companies based on their position get the benefit of these ends... CDB, COCR had a good time with booming of three wheeler.. Now that market is not booming..
How much can these finance companies quickly adopt to fiscal changes is the problem...?
Hence the past performance is not always represent the future of market potential...
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Last edited by yellow knife on Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:20 am; edited 1 time in total
slstock- Veteran
- Posts : 6216
Join date : 2014-06-12
YK
COCR made fortune initially with micro financing. The risk was not from leasing.
CDB : look at the CDB thread. I gave huge amount of new info.
Also best not forget leasing sector has benefits too still in certain areas.
Not everything is negative
COCR made fortune initially with micro financing. The risk was not from leasing.
CDB : look at the CDB thread. I gave huge amount of new info.
Also best not forget leasing sector has benefits too still in certain areas.
Not everything is negative
yellow knife wrote:FGs charts are real time savers for many.. Thanks FG for sharing...
Central Industries which is a family owned business shows slow steady growth without running into booms ( and busts)..
Should a company grab the market when its booming or should it confine to its stability....? This is something we have to discuss...
Fiscal policies often affect to the market of vehicles.. Sometimes its luxury end that get the benefit and sometimes its lower end cars that get the benefit...
Leasing and Finance companies based on their position get the benefit of these ends... CDB, COCR had a good time with booming of three wheeler.. Now that market is not booming..
How much can these finance companies quickly adopt to fiscal changes is the problem...?
Hence the past performance is not always represent the future of market potential...
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Last edited by slstock on Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
xmart- Top contributor
- Posts : 732
Join date : 2015-01-17
thanks SLS, YK & FG,
as i understood, we cannot rely on past performance much on finance & bank sector due to its exposure to interest rate, other policy decisions of gov and overall economy of the country.
those all data belong to low interest rate & favorable leasing business regime. now they have to find new products with high ROE to remain attractive. only thing we can get from the past is how efficient and strong their management and their ability to perform in unfavorable condition.
by looking above, i get LFIN & CDB are innovative in their business while PLC is showing steady growth.
i am not sure how interest rates will affect banking sector.
thanks
as i understood, we cannot rely on past performance much on finance & bank sector due to its exposure to interest rate, other policy decisions of gov and overall economy of the country.
those all data belong to low interest rate & favorable leasing business regime. now they have to find new products with high ROE to remain attractive. only thing we can get from the past is how efficient and strong their management and their ability to perform in unfavorable condition.
by looking above, i get LFIN & CDB are innovative in their business while PLC is showing steady growth.
i am not sure how interest rates will affect banking sector.
thanks
slstock- Veteran
- Posts : 6216
Join date : 2014-06-12
xmart wrote:
only thing we can get from the past is how efficient and strong their management and their ability to perform in unfavorable condition.
smart guy
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
xmart - I won't bother to look at cashflows in typical finance companies. In case of CIFL they were capitalizing interest of some real estate so were not getting cash but normally that is not the business
Balance sheet is more important. Income and expense is based on that.
How much loans/leases and what kind? Interest rate and income and also NPL depend on it
How much deposits and other borrowings? What are the tenure? Short term maturing deposits are higher risk can be lower cost.
Investment portfolio and other type of assets
These companies are required to have certain amount of liquidity so it is normal to have some cash balance and not a big positive
How much income comes as net interest and how much as fees? More fees means it is less volatile to interest rate movement.
NIM, NPL, CAR, ROA, ROE, cost/income are other factors to look at
Balance sheet is more important. Income and expense is based on that.
How much loans/leases and what kind? Interest rate and income and also NPL depend on it
How much deposits and other borrowings? What are the tenure? Short term maturing deposits are higher risk can be lower cost.
Investment portfolio and other type of assets
These companies are required to have certain amount of liquidity so it is normal to have some cash balance and not a big positive
How much income comes as net interest and how much as fees? More fees means it is less volatile to interest rate movement.
NIM, NPL, CAR, ROA, ROE, cost/income are other factors to look at
xmart- Top contributor
- Posts : 732
Join date : 2015-01-17
wow, thanks FG. really helpful guidelines. read it many time. i will try my own finance study then and update 
i will try my own finance study then and update First Guy wrote:xmart - I won't bother to look at cashflows in typical finance companies. In case of CIFL they were capitalizing interest of some real estate so were not getting cash but normally that is not the business
Balance sheet is more important. Income and expense is based on that.
How much loans/leases and what kind? Interest rate and income and also NPL depend on it
How much deposits and other borrowings? What are the tenure? Short term maturing deposits are higher risk can be lower cost.
Investment portfolio and other type of assets
These companies are required to have certain amount of liquidity so it is normal to have some cash balance and not a big positive
How much income comes as net interest and how much as fees? More fees means it is less volatile to interest rate movement.
NIM, NPL, CAR, ROA, ROE, cost/income are other factors to look at
yellow knife- Top contributor
- Posts : 6980
Join date : 2014-03-27
FG has done a superb analysis with past data of finance companies...
SLS has provided enough information on CDB.
Now Xmart is going to do his own homework and come back with nice presentation on Finance field...
Very good and this is what we really need in a forum like this.
Yes
Micro Finance was the fortune to COCR as well as BIL .We have to be very careful on growth of Micro Finance as we discussed with a practical example .
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Even though new registration of vehicles is purely depending on Fiscal policies, the second hand market is always remaining active.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Thus as SLS pointed out even though fiscal policies are not clear, the Finance filed will find its own way
SLS has provided enough information on CDB.
Now Xmart is going to do his own homework and come back with nice presentation on Finance field...
Very good and this is what we really need in a forum like this.
Yes
Micro Finance was the fortune to COCR as well as BIL .We have to be very careful on growth of Micro Finance as we discussed with a practical example .
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Even though new registration of vehicles is purely depending on Fiscal policies, the second hand market is always remaining active.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Thus as SLS pointed out even though fiscal policies are not clear, the Finance filed will find its own way
CK- Active Member
- Posts : 1393
Join date : 2015-11-01
Really important thread. thanks you all the contributors in this tread. Need to read it again from the beginning. 
CK- Active Member
- Posts : 1393
Join date : 2015-11-01
Dear FG, can you give some analysis on csf ? What you think about the future of it? I heard some micro finance act came last week. Will it be an effect to micro finance companies?
Comments and ideas of others are also really welcome..
Comments and ideas of others are also really welcome..
First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
CK wrote:Dear FG, can you give some analysis on csf ? What you think about the future of it? I heard some micro finance act came last week. Will it be an effect to micro finance companies?
Comments and ideas of others are also really welcome..
CSF looks to be making a turnaround. look above impairment level last quarter but has not paid taxes. Need to see one or two more quarters to be sure but this is the time to take the call depending on how well and deep you can analyze. I haven't looked so deep. Has traded 1.30-1.60 in recent times.
sls has talked about it somewhere here.
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