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VFIN - where the journey leads it?

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Post by HUNTER on Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:10 pm

GroundedKestrel wrote:Still dropping..... scratch

If the market movements make us panic, we better reduce the holding to a level which won't make us so.

'cause.

Panic will lead to mistakes
Mistakes will lead to panic
and keep on repeating until someone wakes us up..
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:12 pm

Thanks HUNTER Smile. I am annoyed but in no uncertain terms am i panicked. Nothing will change with regard to my plans.
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Post by Future123 on Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:14 pm

No need to panic with regards to VFIN. It will anyway report an EPS of 10/= with the existing loan portfolio.

The growth might temporarily slowdown and sure they have backup plans as this is managed by people who are made for business. This is still very much undervalued.

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Post by pathfinder on Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:43 pm

VFIN is a one good company growing at a good pace.Investors with medium to long term targets has no reason to panic.

With current panic trend over finance sector further drop is expected.64 has a good support.If break it can come down to 59.50.As long as ASI remains above 7000 the possibility is low.I expect a turn around near 62.
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Post by First Guy on Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:02 pm

VFIN looked undervalued at current multiples but now it looks like it's 'huge' attractiveness reduced. We have seen cycles in companies before. Each get their times and best to rotate stocks. Consider sustainable profits as well and avoid considering irregular or abnormal profits/losses during one or more quarters to continue.
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Post by Future123 on Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:31 pm

FG, what's your idea for medium term? What are the steps that finance companies should take to mitigate this loss of income? Eg: property mortgage, business loans and grameen loans

Does this 70% rule apply to banks as well?

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Post by kass on Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:43 pm

Future123 wrote:

Does this 70% rule apply to banks as well?

Yes
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Post by hariesha on Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:50 pm

With the current context lot of finance shares are due for correction in prices. A scenario that we didn't think of three months back. 

Correction can be aggravated if the government increase taxes for Motor Vehicles.

But almost every finance company may report very good results in the ongoing quarter.

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Post by First Guy on Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:51 am

Future123 wrote:FG, what's your idea for medium term? What are the steps that finance companies should take to mitigate this loss of income? Eg: property mortgage, business loans and grameen loans

Does this 70% rule apply to banks as well?

If I knew the answer to that I wouldn't be in the board of one of the companies Wink It's up to the management to come up with something innovative. Different companies will come up with different ideas. This year (or last) VFIN came up with a new feature in leasing where it allows the customer to skip a lease payment during a preferred month every year. If someone had higher expenses during a particular month (insurance payment) they can skip the lease payment for that month.

So the sooner they get into new areas the better. Then the question comes, why didn't they do that before, or have they done that already?

I don't see this as a 'loss of income'. I'll treat this as being back to normal levels and the past few quarters (and a few more in future) as abnormal increase of income.

We can see the impact only after a few more quarters.
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Post by Future123 on Sun Sep 20, 2015 12:38 am

A new product from VFIN called Auto Draft.

http://www.vallibelfinance.com/?p=345

We need more innovation and diversification like this to go forward.

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Post by First Guy on Sun Sep 20, 2015 7:22 am

Future123 wrote:A new product from VFIN called Auto Draft.

http://www.vallibelfinance.com/?p=345

We need more innovation and diversification like this to go forward.

VFIN, LFIN and some other companies have had this for a long time. It's not something new.
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Mon Sep 21, 2015 11:02 am

It's interesting to see the dynamic between the two of you when it comes to VFIN. Future is optimistic whilst FG is pessimistic. The both of you have held the same beliefs even when the company was doing good or bad. Interesting to see who will come out on top in the long term.

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Post by First Guy on Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:00 pm

GroundedKestrel wrote:It's interesting to see the dynamic between the two of you when it comes to VFIN. Future is optimistic whilst FG is pessimistic. The both of you have held the same beliefs even when the company was doing good or bad. Interesting to see who will come out on top in the long term.


I am not pessimistic. I am cautious. Future is always at the extreme end of optimism or pessimism on different topics. In this case it's optimism.

Finance companies have had 'above average' time during last few months/quarters because of low interest rates and higher income so people bought vehicles. Now with new changes, it's back to normal. So we have to be realistic about growth.

https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t5034p75-vfin-where-the-journey-leads-it#46997
Check the graph. Last four quarters net interest was almost flat. Can we expect a similar result for September? It might be the same for few more quarters but new products and new markets need to contribute for further growth.
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Post by Future123 on Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:49 pm

Today watched the first ever TV add by Vallibel Finance. It was on Hiru TV news at 7 pm during commercial break.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VU5HsqHdyw

Now with expansion right time to start advertising to reach the customers. I hope gradually VFIN would reduce exposure to leasing and increase loans to other sectors such as home, business, margin loans, SME, grameen,etc.

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Post by Future123 on Wed Oct 14, 2015 7:39 pm

Director buying again. VFIN must have made good profit. This is one of the fastest growing companies at CSE.

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/3991444821260_.pdf


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Post by First Guy on Thu Oct 15, 2015 7:02 am

Future123 wrote:Director buying again. VFIN must have made good profit. This is one of the fastest growing companies at CSE.

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/3991444821260_.pdf


1. Sure it must have made a good profit due to recent heavy vehicle imports and existing leases

2. Fasted growing? - I disagree. In fact, I have shown a chart depicting its growth somewhere in this thread.

Profit will be 'good' for some quarters, but without many new leases compared to previous periods, it will not be an easy task to grow unless new areas of business is entered.
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Post by Future123 on Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:21 pm

First Guy wrote:
Future123 wrote:Director buying again. VFIN must have made good profit. This is one of the fastest growing companies at CSE.

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/3991444821260_.pdf


1. Sure it must have made a good profit due to recent heavy vehicle imports and existing leases

2. Fasted growing? - I disagree. In fact, I have shown a chart depicting its growth somewhere in this thread.

Profit will be 'good' for some quarters, but without many new leases compared to previous periods, it will not be an easy task to grow unless new areas of business is entered.

FG, agree with you up to some extent about the growth. They can significantly improve the Interest income provided they had lots of branches. Now with the opening of new branches and TV adverts they are poised to capture new customers.

They should definitely look for other lending options such as micro finance, home loans , grameen, gold loans. It's better to limit leasing to max 35%. Grameen gives very high effective rates and could even give 35% or more. I think BLI mainly does this.

As I've been with LFIN for so many years, I see VFIN also slowly following it's elder brother's foot steps. LFIN was highly exposed to gold a few years back and with gold recession they changed their strategies. Hoping VFIN also moves to different segments sooner than later.

I like VFIN since the leadership is provided by DP. We know that DP is capable of turning a metal to gold with his magical touch. For any medium term investor VFIN would give amazing returns for sure..


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Post by kass on Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:04 pm

Interesting to see their growth in this Q, in a situation where vehicle prices are high and 70% rule for leases still in place.
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Post by Future123 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:22 pm

Very good results. Profit increased by 40% YOY.
Quarterly EPS 2.75 (11/4)

Has performed comparatively much better than COCR.

The problem is market negativity and budget sentiment.

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/949_1446549858999.pdf

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Post by First Guy on Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:02 pm

Look at the results closely.

Net interest income has risen past 400 mil for the first time, BUT expenses have increased more. Profit before impairment is flat. Look at the difference in impairment (good or bad you decide). There 'could' be a larger charge next quarter.

So what is the real profit growth?

As usual, this is not a demotion. Just presenting facts and being cautious from being 'over' optimistic.
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Post by Future123 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:21 pm

First Guy wrote:Look at the results closely.

Net interest income has risen past 400 mil for the first time, BUT expenses have increased more. Profit before impairment is flat. Look at the difference in impairment (good or bad you decide). There 'could' be a larger charge next quarter.

So what is the real profit growth?

As usual, this is not a demotion. Just presenting facts and being cautious from being 'over' optimistic.

NIM increased by 10% which is nearly 40 million. The PAT increased by 40% which is 33%. There is other operating income of 30 million. Impairment significantly dropped contributing to higher PAT.

Other expenses have gone up by 35 million. We must keep in mind that VFIN has opened nearly 5 branches this year. They had only 20 branches before and now around 25 branches. It's obvious that its expenses would go up immediately and the revenue would follow in following quarters.
Eg: when they report 150 million quarterly PAT then EPS would be 3.6. Annualized would be 3.6 * 4 = 14.4. At that time it's likely to trade around 115/= if we assume 8 times of EPS.

For me this is a medium term counter and one must be willing to hold this for at least 2 years to ripe the real benefit.

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Post by Jana1 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:51 pm

Future123 wrote:
First Guy wrote:Look at the results closely.

Net interest income has risen past 400 mil for the first time, BUT expenses have increased more. Profit before impairment is flat. Look at the difference in impairment (good or bad you decide). There 'could' be a larger charge next quarter.

So what is the real profit growth?

As usual, this is not a demotion. Just presenting facts and being cautious from being 'over' optimistic.

NIM increased by 10% which is nearly 40 million. The PAT increased by 40% which is 33%. There is other operating income of 30 million. Impairment significantly dropped contributing to higher PAT.

Other expenses have gone up by 35 million. We must keep in mind that VFIN has opened nearly 5 branches this year. They had only 20 branches before and now around 25 branches. It's obvious that its expenses would go up immediately and the revenue would follow in following quarters.
Eg: when they report 150 million quarterly PAT then EPS would be 3.6. Annualized would be 3.6 * 4 = 14.4. At that time it's likely to trade around 115/= if we assume 8 times of EPS.

For me this is a medium term counter and one must be willing to hold this for at least 2 years to ripe the real benefit.

Having difficulty in picking your annualized EPS. Themselves have already produced on the report as Rs 11 of annualised EPS, then how can you multiply by 4 and get 2018 annualised EPS? Is it the first time r u analysing the IS? or blind biased decision because of holding?....Wink

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Post by Future123 on Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:27 pm

Jana1 wrote:
Future123 wrote:
First Guy wrote:Look at the results closely.

Net interest income has risen past 400 mil for the first time, BUT expenses have increased more. Profit before impairment is flat. Look at the difference in impairment (good or bad you decide). There 'could' be a larger charge next quarter.

So what is the real profit growth?

As usual, this is not a demotion. Just presenting facts and being cautious from being 'over' optimistic.

NIM increased by 10% which is nearly 40 million. The PAT increased by 40% which is 33%. There is other operating income of 30 million. Impairment significantly dropped contributing to higher PAT.

Other expenses have gone up by 35 million. We must keep in mind that VFIN has opened nearly 5 branches this year. They had only 20 branches before and now around 25 branches. It's obvious that its expenses would go up immediately and the revenue would follow in following quarters.
Eg: when they report 150 million quarterly PAT then EPS would be 3.6. Annualized would be 3.6 * 4 = 14.4. At that time it's likely to trade around 115/= if we assume 8 times of EPS.

For me this is a medium term counter and one must be willing to hold this for at least 2 years to ripe the real benefit.

Having difficulty in picking your annualized EPS. Themselves have already produced on the report as Rs 11 of annualised EPS, then how can you multiply by 4 and get 2018 annualised EPS? Is it the first time  r u analysing the IS? or blind biased decision because of holding?....Wink

please dont under estimate. I assumed a quarterly profit of 150 milliin in 2 years divided by number of shares which is 41.5 million and annualized. Please dont insult others if you know everything. Sorry bro if you didn't understand my English

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Post by Future123 on Sat Nov 14, 2015 12:11 am

New branch opened at Warakapola.

http://www.dailymirror.lk/94957/vallibel-finance-expands-reach-to-piliyandala-and-warakapola

http://www.vallibelfinance.com/?p=1304

VFIN can overcome the setback created through leasing limitation by expansion and product diversification. They are reaching more customers now than before through more branches and TV advertisements.

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Post by Backstage on Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:10 pm

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/1121447741108_.pdf

Rangamuwa and DP both buying.

Thought I will try beat Future to the post. Razz
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