Orient Finance PLC--(Share_Valuation_Report)

[CSE.SAS]

Click the below link to download the Report of Orient Finance PLC--(Share_Valuation_Report)

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[sashimaalTop contributor]

Good quantities traded today.

Enter with a long term view.

[Future123Active Member]

Good share and a lot of buying happening.

In general, I think many finance and banking sector firms in Q2 and Q3 may not perform well due to low level of leasing, increase in interest rates and vehicle import restrictions. Hoping that vehicle duties may be reduced before or in the budget. This will boost banks and finance sectors.

This is only my personal opinion.

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Yes , Govt got it wrong by increasing duty and taxes of vehicles to abnormal levels. Did it help the BOP crisis? NO ! Instead, Non-vehicle imports covered that. As we know, vehicles gives more money in duty+taxes than non-vehicle imports. So ultimately Govt ended up with less money while overall import bill remained.

Now we should gradually see vehicle duty+taxes reduce to where it was...

[Future123Active Member]

Yes Sashi. I too feel that duties will come down as the BOP crisis is manageable now due to inflows and the interest rates would stabilize and go down gradually.

We have to focus on good finance companies in the second and third quarters when others sell.

Yes , Govt got it wrong by increasing duty and taxes of vehicles to abnormal levels. Did it help the BOP crisis? NO ! Instead, Non-vehicle imports covered that. As we know, vehicles gives more money in duty+taxes than non-vehicle imports. So ultimately Govt ended up with less money while overall import bill remained.

Now we should gradually see vehicle duty+taxes reduce to where it was...

[First Guy]

Readers note that this is an old thread and the document is one year old.

BFN is going through a new phase after new share issue and is in profits in recent quarters. Impairments are still high and paid a notable amount as tax for the first time last quarter. On TTM basis, considering the latest share amount, P/E at 6.3x is higher than most other 'established' finance companies. Price is 1.4x tangible book value for an ROE of 24.1% over the last 4 quarters.

Almost all of its income is generated through leasing which is on the decline for most companies. Whether or not taxes will be reduced and how much of the share will BFN get is another matter and can be considered. With the Financial city resuming, there can be another boom for leasing in short term.

But leasing business for passenger vehicles are not going to grow for ever.

Note: There is a tax reversal for BFN last year and annual report shows EPS of 7/-. This won't be continuing. So best is to not consider that and also consider future tax payments.

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Yes FG.

Their amalgamation is expected to lead to much higher revenues/profits (see expected P&L in CSE -SAS's report). Even if they achieve half of this, still share price should be ............

We had one qtr of results as well where in bad circumstances also they have made a good turnaround.

LT people can get in (with a 1-2 years time frame). Today's starting price was Rs 16.50 for records. There will be a few trading opportunities en route.

[Future123Active Member]

Thanks FG

[malan 100]

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BFN technicals. any views regarding technical side

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Seems buyers have understood the opportunity.

As i said, this is a long term share. But will give many trading opportunities en route.

Disc: Holding

[smallvilleTop contributor]

This was discussed in Path's What to analyse thread by him..

I'm just posting my ami all-in-one chart on BFN;

If all goes well.. 21 is not far reached.. But near 19 it will have selling pressure.. But take a nore on FG's warnings as well.. Those are for investors.



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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

TAs think differently.. and Fundamentalists think in another way.. Those who follow hot news think in another way..

****************************************

In one of the Jathaka Stories, a monster appearing amidst a desert and advice the caravan travelers to drop away water as it weigh too much and just few miles ahead you get a land where its raining heavily.

Bodhisathva ask few questions based on common sense from his fellow members.

How far can you hear thundering ?

How far can you see lightning ?

How far can you see clouds ?

This simple common sense Qs saved their life...

*************************************

Apply that when ever you get tips..

Yesterday there was a substantial Block of Oreint finance traded at the latter part..



Day`s Trading as of :08 Sep 2016

VolumePrice10:0011:0012:0013:0014:0016.2516.516.751717.2517.517.75Price0k200k400k600k-200k800k1000kVolume

Since we do not know exactly why there is a sudden interest better to analyze with common sense and take action...

[sashimaalTop contributor]

YK,

Yes we don't know what the future holds. Applies the same for any share.

But we need to analyse beyond the basics to find opportunities in these type of markets.

Historical analysis in these type of markets will get you FD rate growth or slightly more (only). That too in long term. Anyone other than a beginner can do that. No "STAR points" will be given by the Market for such.

As Yin Yang recently mentioned:
"You should be a fool not to use floating tubes when swimming in baby pools.
You should be a fool still to use them in Olympic pools".

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Shashi

Higher the risk you take higher the return you get.

So share picking is based on risk appetite of a person.


There are many Gems found out by Hawk Eye and they all were pattern breakers.. We do not know whether Orient Finance will break the current levels and will give massive captial gains..

However asking few foolish questions will enable you to decide whether to use tubes for floating or not...

1. Is leasing market growing and Is vehicle registration going up ?

2. When the leasing industry was growing has Orient grew equally or in an outstanding manner or was an under performer...?

3. Was there a management change recently to steer for a different direction..?

4. What are the advertisements get recalled in your mind regarding Leasing and is Orient Fiance there ? 

5. Have you really read and understood the research report with above link ?

**************************************

Now lets forget all above and has shares given gains for people who don't ask questions but just act on hot tips..

Yes

East West is one good example...

If so " Timing is the name of the game..."

[First Guy]

Their amalgamation is expected to lead to much higher revenues/profits (see expected P&L in CSE -SAS's report). Even if they achieve half of this, still share price should be ............

On this part, the report is a year old. Now we can compare FY16E in the report with actual.

Interest income has fallen short a lot but NII a little below. PBT is more due to other items being +/- But FY17E the report expects massive increase in NII. But in 1Q we saw it decreasing from previous quarter, so I doubt this will be achieved.

Many things have changed during this one year. Interest rates, leasing market etc., So numbers in the report are out dated.

But as you said you can use other means to analyze and make decisions at present point. Yes there is active trading currently. I am in no way opposing any technical analysis done and you must seize any opportunity that is presented.

But as a funda-mental-ist I personally am not attracted to this share (not many finance shares actually) yet.

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Leasing market is at their worst now and at the turning point. I have explained the BOP crisis and vehicles issue in this thread itself. IMF asked Govt to reverse the decision as it's not going to help the Govt in any way! 

Also important to look at their future projections and the future balance sheet. Is it jilmart?mmm...maybe it has a bit of salt...and pepper.
So even if they get to half of that expectation where will the share price be? And pls understand share price does not act move when everyone knows the answers to all the questions! very rarely it will be like that. We had one results release already. Look at the loan book growth YOY. There will always be quarters where they perform below expected, but which share doesn't?

I indicated Rs 16.50 in this thread when i first mentioned for future comparison. Many 100,000s of shares traded at 16.50 after i mentioned as well. So let's see how it goes.

Shashi

Higher the risk you take higher the return you get.

So share picking is based on risk appetite of a person.


There are many Gems found out by Hawk Eye and they all were pattern breakers.. We do not know whether Orient Finance will break the current levels and will give massive captial gains..

However asking few foolish questions will enable you to decide whether to use tubes for floating or not...

1. Is leasing market growing and Is vehicle registration going up ?

2. When the leasing industry was growing has Orient grew equally or in an outstanding manner or was an under performer...?

3. Was there a management change recently to steer for a different direction..?

4. What are the advertisements get recalled in your mind regarding Leasing and is Orient Fiance there ? 

5. Have you really read and understood the research report with above link ?

**************************************

Now lets forget all above and has shares given gains for people who don't ask questions but just act on hot tips..

Yes

East West is one good example...

If so " Timing is the name of the game..."

[LeonTop contributor]

I have been in the CSE for the last 5 years & I know majority of you here are far more seasoned than me.
Yet I can't understand why majority of you don't accept there are two different ways of analysis in share market. Funda & tech.

So Orthodox investors can analyse all the fundamental values of a share & proceeds accordingly.

Same way let TA based traders go in their line. I believe that won't make any of your lives difficult.

When a trader or techi highlights a share based on techs what's the point in asking the funda value of it.
I don't get it. Please make us enlighten on this matter.

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Yes Leon. Also in these markets one needs both FA and TA as well as the macro situation.

Timing can almost NEVER be the game if one doesn't use any TA nor understand the macros).

I have been in the CSE for the last 5 years & I know majority of you here are far more seasoned than me.
Yet I can't understand why majority of you don't accept there are two different ways of analysis in share market. Funda & tech.

So Orthodox investors can analyse all the fundamental values of a share & proceeds accordingly.

Same way let TA based traders go in their line. I believe that won't make any of your lives difficult.

When a trader or techi highlights a share based on techs what's the point in asking the funda value of it.
I don't get it. Please make us enlighten on this matter.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Leon

Yes , your point is taken...

Lets not make life bitter for TAs....in this forum....

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Now lets forget all above and has shares given gains for people who don't ask questions but just act on hot tips..

Yes

East West is one good example...

If so " Timing is the name of the game..."

Are you trying to "HINT" something by quoting my signature .

[Future123Active Member]

Still I can't understand why BLI is valued at Rs. 68/= & GSF at 30/=.

No one is bothered and no questions raised?

For me both Fundamental and technical are important.

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

I heard about this Share few days ago.

It's my gut feel,watch more if u really wanna buy.

It was heavily buy in last few days.One of known person bought.

       

[First Guy]

Still I can't understand why BLI is valued at Rs. 68/= & GSF at 30/=.

No one is bothered and no questions raised?

For me both Fundamental and technical are important.

This thread is for BFN. But what are you trying to say? Is BLI too expensive or GSF is cheap?

I think GSF is overvalued

[smallvilleTop contributor]

BLI has been a candidate of aggressive growth.. We've seen 300%-200% growths in the past. But this cannot be done every qtr or YoY. However, I think a new valuation should be done as it has stagnated for sometime.

FG - how about starting a thread?

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

BLI.N

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