Re: SPEN.N0000

Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:41 pm

Dear Gentlemen, i'm in to long term investing (4-5 years and above) and currently slowly building a portfolio with below stocks - COMB / JKH / SAMP / NTB / OSEA / TJL / UBC / PLC / CARG.

Could anyone kindly recommend the suitability of SPEN for above? I see SPEN is at 52W low now and very sluggish sales around 95-96. Last 3 years trend is constant downfall. Is it worthwhile to by around 95 and hold for 4-5 years?

Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:47 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

Dont catch a falling knife...wait until the knife is fallen then pick..

Spen.N is a good share. But when the market trend is not supportive better to wait for signals of a direction then start to buy when it has reached the nadir and then slowly start up to pick..

Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:49 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

Welcome madhuranga

SPEN :
Well these prices are certainly very attractive for SPEN. But am a bit concerned how dull and lethargic the company or their investment have become in last couple of years. So for long term , I think this maybe a good time to get into , but I would evaluate HJ/SPEN activites every 1 year or so to keep longer term.
It they get too boring, ( or show no earning improvement) there maybe better shares in the sector.
Example : VONE ( except for the Ravi K issue which I think will be solved sooner than later)

To buy/enter SPEN, best to wait till the dust settles .

umadhuranga wrote:Dear Gentlemen, i'm in to long term investing (4-5 years and above) and currently slowly building a portfolio with below stocks - COMB / JKH / SAMP / NTB / OSEA / TJL / UBC / PLC / CARG.

Could anyone kindly recommend the suitability of SPEN for above? I see SPEN is at 52W low now and very sluggish sales around 95-96. Last 3 years trend is constant downfall. Is it worthwhile to by around 95 and hold for 4-5 years?

Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:26 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

umadhuranga wrote:Dear Gentlemen, i'm in to long term investing (4-5 years and above) and currently slowly building a portfolio with below stocks - COMB / JKH / SAMP / NTB / OSEA / TJL / UBC / PLC / CARG.

Could anyone kindly recommend the suitability of SPEN for above? I see SPEN is at 52W low now and very sluggish sales around 95-96. Last 3 years trend is constant downfall. Is it worthwhile to by around 95 and hold for 4-5 years?

Interestingly, all the stocks you have mentioned (except for maybe OSEA) are held in large qty's by CINV & GUAR. Those shares are trading at approx 35-40 % discount to their Market Value and are Investment Trusts.

SPENS - Last 3-4 years (post split), earnings have stayed flat and actually declined and stock price has been in the 95-120 range. NAV is Rs 85. P/E currently could be 12-15 times. left to be seen weather next 3-4 years will witness any growth or remain the same. Their Core sectors - Hotels / Tourism, Ports & Shipping etc have fair potential.
In the future, DIST / MELSTACORP plans may impact SPENS too.

Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:34 pm

Alchem,

Have you studied CINV/GUAR history? They do occasionally go for right issues?

Interestingly I saw Sell by a broker on GUAR . That was a bit suprising at these prices ( RS 180 now)

The Alchemist wrote:

umadhuranga wrote:Dear Gentlemen, i'm in to long term investing (4-5 years and above) and currently slowly building a portfolio with below stocks - COMB / JKH / SAMP / NTB / OSEA / TJL / UBC / PLC / CARG.

Could anyone kindly recommend the suitability of SPEN for above? I see SPEN is at 52W low now and very sluggish sales around 95-96. Last 3 years trend is constant downfall. Is it worthwhile to by around 95 and hold for 4-5 years?

Interestingly, all the stocks you have mentioned (except for maybe OSEA) are held in large qty's by CINV & GUAR. Those shares are trading at approx 35-40 % discount to their Market Value and are Investment Trusts.

SPENS - Last 3-4 years (post split), earnings have stayed flat and actually declined and stock price has been in the 95-120 range. NAV is Rs 85. P/E currently could be 12-15 times. left to be seen weather next 3-4 years will witness any growth or remain the same. Their Core sectors - Hotels / Tourism, Ports & Shipping etc have fair potential.
In the future, DIST / MELSTACORP plans may impact SPENS too.

Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:56 pm

My portfolio may resemble a one from very cautious old school unit trust manager's book..

Actually my thinking is more biased towards stability, as i'm building a retirement support plan. Dividends were also given a prominent place when deciding my pf. But, dear alchemist, what do you think about the growth potential of my picks? very happy to get a comment for my very first post in a forum from you and SLS.

( The 'new Buffetology' is a book i fancied some time back, which illustrates long term investing. Even though I don't have the exact statistical proof, i perceive the above shares as having a durable competitive advantage in our market. - I will be happy to share a PDF, if anyone is interested and if it's not against any forum rules.)

Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:05 pm Message reputation : 100% (4 votes)

slstock wrote:Alchem,

Have you studied CINV/GUAR history? They do occasionally go for right issues?

Interestingly I saw Sell by a broker on GUAR . That was a bit suprising at these prices ( RS 180 now)

SLS

You are an admin and let me play the role of Librarian..
Being the librarian I like to keep the books in relevant shelves for anyone to easily refer.
If anyone search for

XYZ.NOOOO you would get whole lot of share discussions relevant to that particular code.

What ever you post in that thread please be kind enough limit only that for respective share under discussion..

Now I being the librarian here I am saying " Sh Sh...please keep the silent environment of the library.. If you want to talk about anything else please move into Chit Chat or Chill out"

If we keeps the threads under ............. N.0000 clean then it will be very easy in future to retrieve

Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:13 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Point taken. However,

1) Alchem rasied CINV/GUAR first as it was related to the question asked by Maduranga. Did you see that ?
2) I replied to add depth. I already commented on SPEN directly.
This was not to talk about other shares in depth than SPEN .

3) No thread can be restricted to state only one share as obviously discussion can go a bit broader.
When it looks like going totally out of control , we intervene.

However I respect what you raised ( though not fair to point finger only on direction) .
As I too have asked the same from others, I should practice what I preach.

I answered Madurnags question on SPEN, so will not comment any further.

yellow knife wrote:

slstock wrote:Alchem,

Have you studied CINV/GUAR history? They do occasionally go for right issues?

Interestingly I saw Sell by a broker on GUAR . That was a bit suprising at these prices ( RS 180 now)

SLS

You are an admin and let me play the role of Librarian..
Being the librarian I like to keep the books in relevant shelves for anyone to easily refer.
If anyone search for

XYZ.NOOOO you would get whole lot of share discussions relevant to that particular code.

What ever you post in that thread please be kind enough limit only that for respective share under discussion..

Now I being the librarian here I am saying " Sh Sh...please keep the silent environment of the library.. If you want to talk about anything else please move into Chit Chat or Chill out"

If we keeps the threads under ............. N.0000 clean then it will be very easy in future to retrieve

Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:34 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

slstock wrote:Alchem,

Have you studied CINV/GUAR history? They do occasionally go for right issues?

Interestingly I saw Sell by a broker on GUAR . That was a bit suprising at these prices ( RS 180 now)

Re CINV & GUAR, I have been following these 2 shares since year 2000. in that time, their share capital was 1-3 million shares (and prices were Rs 30 & 60). during 2000-2005, they had many rights (attractive prices) + Bonus issues and issued shares increased shares to 16-18 Million. then they did a Repurchase of shares in 2009 Oct at Rs 179 & 359. When the shares hit Rs. 500 /Rs. 1500, they split it 1 : 5

These shares reached highest post split price on 15th Feb 2011 (Rs 195, Rs 450).

Prices are attractive in that they trade at 35-40 % discount to NAV Market Portfolio. However as they are Investment Trusts, they are out of favour in these bearish market conditions. Sometimes, their stock price decline ratio is much more than the actual value of the decline of their portfolio / NAV. Furthermore, they have a large exposure to BUKI, and with Palm Oil prices down + Currency mess, we cannot expect much in the short term.

Medium Term Fundamentals are intact & attractive.

Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:42 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

Aitken Spence to acquire 59% of Fiji Ports Corporation LTd together with Fiji National Provident Fund.

Aitken Spence holding of Fiji Ports Corporation Ltd will be 20% and Aitken Spence will invest FJD 34.6 Million

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Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:43 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

Fiji Ports corporation Ltd's annual report is worth studying and the CEO is one Mr Vajira Piyasena

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Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:25 pm

SPEN going down. why ?

Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:22 pm Message reputation : 100% (3 votes)

Thought Its time to look at this share again.This has been drastically beaten down from 134 to 55. currently trading between 67-70...
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Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:25 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

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Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:32 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

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Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:38 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

By looking at the surface , I think this will be another hidden Gem. But dont know about hidden plus & minus . Sls, Yk , Alchem & all the experts... This is your arena . please educate us..Thanks.

Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:47 pm

Thanks spw

Keep it up

Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:01 am Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

A very good time to examine Spence. If Spence gets the East Terminal, I am jumping in. If Harry gets Srilankan Airlines , it will be interesting to see how all this will effect MELS. Thanks YK & SP

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:09 pm

Thanks back.. Didnt know about eastern terminal deal..

Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:41 pm Message reputation : 100% (3 votes)

spw,

You have identified/started talking about a good share.
YK also has given good details in the past. If next quarter SPEN gives better than average earning, this will be good share for investment .

So if Harry J wants money for Sri lankan air ( if deal goes through) , where will it come from? SPEN, MEL or loans or right?

Thing also needs to be looked deeper.

ps: Not motivate to put lot of time/detail to the forum now.
So will stop with the shorter comment and will let other comment on SPEN .

Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:37 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Would purchasing of Sri Lankan Air Lines affect the profits of SPEN as Sri Lankan Air Lines is a loss making entity? Any idea?

It also depends on how long it may take SPEN to turnaround Sri Lankan airlines.

Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:49 am

*All time Low = 55

*Last trading price = 59.50

*moving average line remains = 62.90.

*ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Aitken Spence said June 2017 quarter net profit grew 42 per cent to Rs355 million from a year ago, helped by strong gains from its power plant while maritime business earnings fell and hotels losses widened.

Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:42 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Now 57 then what??? Time to look at.

Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:54 am Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

SPEN is in deep bearish territory for months. And also it was evident a foreign party exiting & HJ absorbing some of it.
Will see on Tech based would 55 be the support.

Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:11 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Welcome back Leon.