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The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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» CIFC Dumps to Expand Your Possibilities to Pass Your Exam
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyFri Jul 19, 2024 10:30 am by faithhharris

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Mar 20, 2024 11:31 am by Hawk Eye

» Sri Lanka plans to allow tourists from August, no mandatory quarantine
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Sep 13, 2023 12:16 pm by lauryfriese

» When Will It Be Safe To Invest In The Stock Market Again?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Apr 19, 2023 6:41 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Dividend Announcements
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Apr 12, 2023 5:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» MAINTENANCE NOTICE / නඩත්තු දැනුම්දීම
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Apr 06, 2023 3:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ඩොලර් මිලියනයක මුදල් සම්මානයක් සහ “ෆීල්ඩ්ස් පදක්කම” පිළිගැනීම ප්‍රතික්ෂේප කළ ගණිතඥයා
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Apr 02, 2023 7:28 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» SEYB.N0000 (Seylan Bank PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Mar 30, 2023 9:25 am by yellow knife

» Here's what blind prophet Baba Vanga predicted for 2016 and beyond: It's not good
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» The Korean Way !
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Mar 29, 2023 7:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» In the Meantime Within Our Shores!
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyMon Mar 27, 2023 5:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyFri Mar 24, 2023 10:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC (SLTL.N0000)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 5:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» THE LANKA HOSPITALS CORPORATION PLC (LHCL.N0000)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 5:10 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Equinox ( වසන්ත විෂුවය ) !
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyMon Mar 20, 2023 4:28 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» COMB.N0000 (Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 4:11 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» REXP.N0000 (Richard Pieris Exports PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 4:02 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» RICH.N0000 (Richard Pieris and Company PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 19, 2023 3:53 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySat Mar 18, 2023 7:36 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Mar 16, 2023 11:23 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Mar 15, 2023 5:33 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
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» GLAS.N0000 (Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Mar 15, 2023 7:45 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Cboe Volatility Index
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyTue Mar 14, 2023 5:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» AHPL.N0000
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:46 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:43 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 12, 2023 4:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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» Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
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CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Mar 09, 2023 8:02 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Bakery Products ?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Mar 08, 2023 5:30 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» NTB.N0000 (Nations Trust Bank PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Mar 05, 2023 7:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Going South
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySat Mar 04, 2023 10:47 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» When Seagulls Follow the Trawler
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Mar 02, 2023 10:22 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Re-activating
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySat Feb 25, 2023 5:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» අපි තමයි හොඳටම කරේ !
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyTue Feb 14, 2023 3:54 pm by ruwan326

» මේ අර් බුධය කිසිසේත්ම මා විසින් නිර්මාණය කල එකක් නොවේ
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» SAMP.N0000 (Sampath Bank PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyWed Nov 30, 2022 8:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» APLA.N0000 (ACL Plastics PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyFri Nov 18, 2022 7:49 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» AVOID FALLING INTO ALLURING WEEKEND FAMILY PACKAGES.
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» Banks, Finance & Insurance Sector Chart
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyTue Nov 15, 2022 5:26 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» VPEL.N0000 (Vallibel Power Erathna PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySun Nov 13, 2022 12:15 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» DEADLY COCKTAIL OF ISLAND MENTALITY AND PARANOID PERSONALITY DISORDER MIX.
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyMon Nov 07, 2022 6:36 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» WATA - Watawala
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySat Nov 05, 2022 8:44 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptySat Nov 05, 2022 8:42 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Capital Trust Broker in difficulty?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyFri Oct 21, 2022 5:25 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» IS PIRATING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY A BOON OR BANE?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyThu Oct 20, 2022 10:13 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What Industry Would You Choose to Focus?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyTue Oct 11, 2022 6:39 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Should I Stick Around, or Should I Follow Others' Lead?
CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 EmptyTue Oct 11, 2022 9:07 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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23 posters

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

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    • Post n°51

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 11:19 am

    Following is just calculations on different ratios and is not a buying or selling recommendation.

    1. Net assets per share.

    Normally a share trades above Net assets value and even Market value for Net assets value at or below 1.5 is attractive . CIND net assets per share is Rs 126 and if so it must be trading at a value above Rs 126.00

    If Market Value to Net assets value at 1.5 is still attractive it must be trading at Rs 189.00

    EPS

    Share has recorded Rs 18.23 for EPS and at a PE ratio of 10 it must be trading at 182

    Above two calculations show us share should be trading somewhere around 180s. Yet even after releasing financials share is not trading even closer to that.

    This is how market behave. Fundamentals alone is not enough to make accurate predictions.
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    • Post n°52

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 11:26 am

    My average of CIND is 60.87 and currently the unrealized capital gain is 77% and the dividend yield for 60.87 is 9% and can be happy with the way dividend grew.
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    • Post n°53

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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon May 30, 2016 11:41 am

    In that case, what do you think can make accurate predictions?

    Sometime ago, I read and interesting theory; it said, predictions can be accurate for a group of incidents but at the same time not accurate for any of individual incidents.

    For example, one can say, the height of a typical Sri Lankan is exactly 5 feet and 5 inches and it could be accurate but at the same time, if we sample 100 individual, none of them could be exactly that tall.

    May be, what they say is true, 'averaging' is not a good investment strategy.
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    • Post n°54

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 12:02 pm

    If fundamentals does not really work out then what ? So you can look into Mirror thread...and check how technical side work...

    So this Investing strategies leave lot of space for us to develop theories, check them with market and abandon them once nullified...

    Anyway if you enter in the right price and just passively hold , that is fine for long term players..If the players are shot term they tend to rely on TAs, hot news, gossips and manipulations...

    Regarding CIND...it has performed well in real business and at any moment commensurate increase can take place in stock market...
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    • Post n°55

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 12:55 pm

    CIND has looked after its shareholders well. Now I like to make a calculation based on the assumption that I sell my investment today and for easy calculation I assume that I have 20,000 shares of CIND. ( Both assumptions are not real ).

    In this calculation I adjusted dividend income and Selling of capital at 10% discounted value. Even though officially inflation remained low I prefer to adjust 10% in my calculation.

    Even in this situation my return for holding for two years is 40% and CIND was a share good for long term holding if entered at right values...

    CashflowQuantity20142014220152016
    Cashflow20,000.00-1,217,400.0060,000.0090,000.00130,000.00
    Discount 10%10.90910.82640.7513
    Adjusted value-1,217,400.0054,546.0074,376.0097,669.00
    Selling Capital20,000@1072,140,000.00
    After Adjusting1,607,782.00
    Net Gain1,834,373.00
    Real Gain616,973.00
    Gain Percentage 50.68


    Last edited by yellow knife on Mon May 30, 2016 4:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    • Post n°56

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 4:10 pm

    With special thanks to Hunter I got this chart...

    [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
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    • Post n°57

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 4:31 pm

    Now I can go back in time tunnel and check what if I sold in May 2014...

    I would have sold below my purchasing value..at 59.97 and I would have ended up making a loss..


    CashflowQuantity20142014220152016
    Cashflow20,000.00-1,217,400.0060,000.00
    Discount 10%10.9091
    Adjusted value-1,217,400.0054,546.00
    Selling Capital20,000@59.971,199,400.00
    After Adjusting1,090,374.54
    Net Gain-127,025.46
    Real Gain-72,479.46
    Gain Percentage -5.95
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    • Post n°58

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 4:33 pm

    I would have sold in May 2015 and at 96 and ending up 40.92% gain...


    CashflowQuantity20142014220152016
    Cashflow20,000.00-1,217,400.0060,000.0090,000.00
    Discount 10%10.90910.82640.7513
    Adjusted value-1,217,400.0054,546.0074,376.000.00
    Selling Capital20,000@961,920,000.00
    After Adjusting1,586,688.00
    Net Gain369,288.00
    Real Gain498,210.00
    Gain Percentage 40.92
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    • Post n°59

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 4:37 pm

    Upto now I can be happy with holding CIND ...
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    • Post n°60

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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon May 30, 2016 4:44 pm

    You're putting a lot of effort in what you're doing; much appreciated.

    Just wondering if you'd be happier if sold the entire lot at the end of 2015 and bought back in March 2016.

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    • Post n°61

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 4:47 pm

    Ok...just give me values that you sell and buy back... So I can redo the calculations....

    This is what I miss often selling and buying back...
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    • Post n°62

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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon May 30, 2016 5:28 pm

    yellow knife wrote:Ok...just give me values that you sell and buy back... So I can redo the calculations....

    This is what I miss often selling and buying back...

    Say, sell just below 120 (NAV), and buy just above 80/- (A cheap price).

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    • Post n°63

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 5:37 pm

    You are up on the deal...


    CashflowQuantity2014201422015
    Cashflow20,000.00-1,217,400.0060,000.0090,000.00
    Discount 10%10.90910.8264
    Adjusted value-1,217,400.0054,546.0074,376.00
    Selling Capital20,000@1202,400,000.00
    After Adjusting1,983,360.00
    Net Gain765,960.00
    Real Gain894,882.00
    Gain Percentage 73.51
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    • Post n°64

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    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 5:38 pm

    So you proved trading is good over long term holding... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 


    2016MarchMay-16
    Buy back 30,000@80Sell @ 107
    2,400,0003210000
    Gain810,000
    Gain Percentage 33.75
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    • Post n°65

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    Post by Yin-Yang Mon May 30, 2016 5:54 pm

    It's a debate which will never end; if trading is better than holding a position.

    Both have it's own pros and cons.

    Mathematically, in a market with lot of fluctuations, trading will have better chances. In a bullish market, position holding will have a better chance of outperforming.

    What about a bear market then.................?
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    • Post n°66

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Mon May 30, 2016 5:58 pm

    Bears do hibernate....So during bear sleeping and not seeing the market may be the best ...

    Nice Discussion Ying-Yang...
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    • Post n°67

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by First Guy Mon May 30, 2016 11:29 pm

    yellow knife wrote:Following is just calculations on different ratios and is not a buying or selling recommendation.

    1. Net assets per share.

    Normally a share trades above Net assets value and even Market value for Net assets value at or below 1.5 is attractive . CIND net assets per share is Rs 126 and if so it must be trading at a value above Rs 126.00

    If Market Value to Net assets value at 1.5 is still attractive it must be trading at Rs 189.00

    EPS

    Share has recorded Rs 18.23 for EPS and at a PE ratio of 10 it must be trading at 182

    Above two calculations show us share should be trading somewhere around 180s. Yet even after releasing financials share is not trading even closer to that.

    This is how market behave. Fundamentals alone is not enough to make accurate predictions.

    There are two things I like to 'discuss' further or disagree.

    Net assets - if you are looking at net assets, look at the rate it is increasing. If it is increasing (growing shareholder funds) faster than similar risked asset, you would buy it more than what it is worth currently. But if opposite happens, you would not buy it even for that amount. At the moment, CIND has a ROE of around 15%. That's little more than less riskier interest rates. So it is priced below net assets. By being priced at 0.8x net assets, either market has not realised its value, or is expecting it to return lower ROE in future.

    This when converted to P/E around 6x gives earnings yield of 16.6% What you can evaluate is, is this right for a company with the risks that it has (or the lack of it)

    Then we have valuing companies at relative level
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    • Post n°68

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by HUNTER Tue May 31, 2016 8:39 am

    Thanks YK for continuing this useful discussion.

    Regarding NAV and P/E.....

    On logical and mathematical grounds, I totally agree with FG. In fact, my adopted valuation calculations are based on the same principles.

    I believe, the value of a share needs to represent both the present value as well as the rate of growth compared to the ongoing opportunity cost (less risky opportunities).

    However, when thinking in this line, by observing the market, as I believe, we see lot of 'inefficiencies'. There are some shares, which should value high, logically, trading at lower prices. And other way round also.

    May be, it happens because, sometimes the crowds do not act rationally; may be there are other factors crowds 'feel' but mathematics fail to capture, or may be there are 'genuine' hidden 'gems' crowds have failed to identify.

    This is one aspect in the market I like to keep on studying.

    For the time being, as I have noticed, the market is not immune to all type of common behavior of human we see in any other area. People usually make decisions based on their 'perception'.

    Just like good brands are sold at premium prices, it seems, some shares are also traded at premium prices because their 'brand image' is appealing to the majority.

    Any idea why some vehicle models manufactured by Dihatsu are sold at a higher price with a Toyota badge, with no physical changes except for just a sticker?
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    • Post n°69

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by xmart Tue May 31, 2016 9:14 am

    First Guy wrote:

    There are two things I like to 'discuss' further or disagree.

    Net assets - if you are looking at net assets, look at the rate it is increasing. If it is increasing (growing shareholder funds) faster than similar risked asset, you would buy it more than what it is worth currently. But if opposite happens, you would not buy it even for that amount. At the moment, CIND has a ROE of around 15%. That's little more than less riskier interest rates. So it is priced below net assets. By being priced at 0.8x net assets, either market has not realised its value, or is expecting it to return lower ROE in future.

    This when converted to P/E around 6x gives earnings yield of 16.6% What you can evaluate is, is this right for a company with the risks that it has (or the lack of it)

    Then we have valuing companies at relative level

    FG, you sum it up nicely. thanks
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    • Post n°70

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Tue May 31, 2016 10:12 am

    Thanks FG and Hunter
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    • Post n°71

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    Post by slstock Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:11 am

    Oh so people moved on to comment on this thread.
    Thats why not a single comment even on the CIND discussion thread
    ( even to update the CIND dividend declaration)


    I just read all you comment here.
    So your concern now CIND has not moved though it is a value share?

    See below ( second part of the answer) as it may have something you like to read.
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    Also one needs to understand how shares move.
    Ex: Why did VFIN not move after dividend ( atleast till yesterday?)
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    • Post n°72

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:48 am

    Well SLS

    This is a problem I too came across...

    I started Movies to watch thread...later I found that LSE had started something similar and I have commented in that thread as well...


    I started RCL.N thread... later found Pathfinder has started RCL.N thread earlier and I have commented on that.. I even asked from admin to merge

    Later and quite recently I found I am competing with Rana on dividend announcements.. I often wait a little bit then added dividend announcement in relevant thread.. but found Rana update almost simultaneously...

    None of these events were intentional and apologize if I caused a harm to any...
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    • Post n°73

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Sub Division

    Post by Rana Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:50 pm

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    • Post n°74

    CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC) - Page 3 Empty Re: CIND.N0000 (Central Industries PLC)

    Post by yellow knife Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:51 am

    Its time to read 2015/16 annual report of the company.

    Company recorded best ever year in all ratios.

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    • Post n°75

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    Post by yellow knife Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:53 am

    Net assets of the company is growing steadily.

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