Hydro Power Sector Best Buys

Thanks Bugbee for sharing

Not so good news to the sector. I sold my hydro shares last month.

No rains till mid September, predicts Met chief
Deficit in rainfall during last NE monsoon aggravates situation

by Maheen Senanayake

Mr. Lalith Chandrapala, Director General, Department of Meteorology, was pessimistic of the current drought affecting many parts of the country ending soon explaining why rains, if at all, may only be expected in mid-September.

"What we are experiencing now is a dearth of rain during the South West monsoon (late May to September) during which rainfall is expected in the south western quarter of the western parts of the central hills - Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Sabaragamuwa, Western Province and Galle and Matara.

``What is happening now is a climatological situation but essentially, exacerbated by the fact that there was a deficit of rainfall during the last North East monsoon", Chandrapala said.

He also said that some rains were experienced in the early parts of the week and during the last two days. Last month there had been some rain in the Eastern parts including the coastal belt from Trincomalee to Batticaloa. Moneragala had received rains during the first few days of the week.

These rains are a result of some of the thunderstorms developing in the area.

On Saturday, the meteorological department was expecting thunderstorms in various parts of the island.

Asked whether this level of rain will be sufficient to break the drought he said `not really.’ The maximum rainfall from these storms could be 50mm. There is unlikely to be rains until the second inter-monsoon period which starts mid September, essentially leading to the next North East monsoon.’’

Asked whether this situation was managed, he said "after and before rainfall seasons, we hold what is called a ‘stakeholders’ meeting’ that is attended by the irrigation department, agricultural department and several other stakeholders. Whilst we are unable to predict the weather for more than two to three days, we enlightened the stakeholders on the rainfall situation and how it may affect crops.

"We understand that the irrigation department plans its water distribution based on these meetings," he added.

"It is very difficult to forecast droughts in a tropical country such as ours but we have begun a program together with the UN-ESCAP and the Arthur C Clark Center to use satellite imagery including remote sensing data to capture soil moisture content in order to forecast drought conditions."

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On a lighter side, we often use to take opposite of what Met department said.

Thats what we dont need now at Galle. Time to win the match.   

Mh... I think Met chief is talking about the Dry zone.

August is the worst month in NCP, NWP and Noth Eastern side of the Island. You can see people and buffaloes bath together in dark coloured shallow muddy waters in August. This time the drought is worst in some parts.   Normally people expect rains after 15th of October.

For hydropower, especially for our wier driven mini stations located in hills I think the current raining pattern is good.
I do not expect excellent results for June . Thereafter they should perform well. I think we will get enough rainfall for small stations in next 5-6 months although we are experiencing the effect of el-nino.

Thanks BugB for sharing and others for valuable comments.