ECONOMYNEXT – Statistically, every patient infected with COVID-19 could transmit the virus to 406 others in one month, Sri Lanka’s Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) President Dr Anurudda Padeniya said.
Padeniya was quoting research carried out by University of California Assistant Professor of Medicine Robert A J Signer on the math behind social distancing and COVID-19.
In an article published in Global News, Signer explained that the calculations were based on initial research from officials around the world.
“There is a universal logic to this,” Global News quoted Singer as saying, noting that the exact numbers may vary from country to country, especially as research is still being conducted.
The infographic below shows how one person who is asymptomatic for five days and doesn’t practice social distancing can spread the virus to 2.5 people.
![Why we need to practise social distancing Social10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f16/19/33/47/22/social10.jpg)
“Initial studies have suggested that one person infected with novel coronavirus can transmit the virus to approximately 2.5 people,” he explained.
Signer added that initial research also shows those who tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, were asymptomatic for an average of five days.
“The next assumption we made is that after five days, a person will begin experiencing symptoms, will quarantine and no longer infect others,” he said.
If one person transmits the infection to an average of 2.5 people, and those 2.5 people each transmit to another 2.5 people and so on, within 30 days, 406 people would be infected.
See Also
Sri Lanka President pledges US$5mn to Modi's South Asia Coronavirus fund
Sri Lanka makes cremation mandatory for any COVID19 fatalities
Sri Lanka bans inter-district travel, curfew extended 3 days after break
Sri Lanka president has powers to spend, fund Coronavirus fight: PM
Sri Lanka's Colombo Stock Exchange to have multiple 5-pct circuit breakers
The graphic then shows what would happen if people limited their social interaction by 50 per cent — an infected person would only transmit the virus to 1.25 people. In 30 days, 15 people would be infected.
Then, it goes on to do the same calculations, assuming the infected individual limited social interaction by 75 per cent.
That’s when the “transmission chain” would ideally end, Signer explained.
“A person can’t actually infect 0.625 people. They are either going to infect zero people, one person or more than one person,” he said. “Because there is a plausibility that some people will infect zero people, that’s when the transmission chain ends. (Colombo/Mar23/2020)
» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
» Sri Lanka plans to allow tourists from August, no mandatory quarantine
» When Will It Be Safe To Invest In The Stock Market Again?
» Dividend Announcements
» MAINTENANCE NOTICE / නඩත්තු දැනුම්දීම
» ඩොලර් මිලියනයක මුදල් සම්මානයක් සහ “ෆීල්ඩ්ස් පදක්කම” පිළිගැනීම ප්රතික්ෂේප කළ ගණිතඥයා
» SEYB.N0000 (Seylan Bank PLC)
» Here's what blind prophet Baba Vanga predicted for 2016 and beyond: It's not good
» The Korean Way !
» In the Meantime Within Our Shores!
» What is Known as Dementia?
» SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC (SLTL.N0000)
» THE LANKA HOSPITALS CORPORATION PLC (LHCL.N0000)
» Equinox ( වසන්ත විෂුවය ) !
» COMB.N0000 (Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC)
» REXP.N0000 (Richard Pieris Exports PLC)
» RICH.N0000 (Richard Pieris and Company PLC)
» Do You Have Computer Vision Syndrome?
» LAXAPANA BATTERIES PLC (LITE.N0000)
» What a Bank Run ?
» 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
» GLAS.N0000 (Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC)
» Cboe Volatility Index
» AHPL.N0000
» TJL.N0000 (Tee Jey Lanka PLC.)
» CTBL.N0000 ( CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC)
» COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC (COMD. N.0000))
» Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
» CSD.N0000 (Seylan Developments PLC)
» PLC.N0000 (People's Leasing and Finance PLC)
» Bakery Products ?
» NTB.N0000 (Nations Trust Bank PLC)
» Going South
» When Seagulls Follow the Trawler
» Re-activating
» අපි තමයි හොඳටම කරේ !
» මේ අර් බුධය කිසිසේත්ම මා විසින් නිර්මාණය කල එකක් නොවේ
» SAMP.N0000 (Sampath Bank PLC)
» APLA.N0000 (ACL Plastics PLC)
» AVOID FALLING INTO ALLURING WEEKEND FAMILY PACKAGES.
» Banks, Finance & Insurance Sector Chart
» VPEL.N0000 (Vallibel Power Erathna PLC)
» DEADLY COCKTAIL OF ISLAND MENTALITY AND PARANOID PERSONALITY DISORDER MIX.
» WATA - Watawala
» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
» Capital Trust Broker in difficulty?
» IS PIRATING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY A BOON OR BANE?
» What Industry Would You Choose to Focus?
» Should I Stick Around, or Should I Follow Others' Lead?