When an economy is struggling, it is standard practice for a central bank to cut interest rates. That makes saving less attractive and borrowing more so, boosting the amount of money being spent and kick-starting an economic recovery. But very low inflation can make a central bank's life harder. Many big economies are now experiencing “deflation”, where prices are falling. In the euro zone, for instance, the main interest rate is at 0.05% but the "real" (or adjusted for inflation) interest rate is considerably higher, at 0.65%, because euro-area inflation has dropped into negative territory at -0.6%. If deflation gets worse then real interest rates will rise even more, choking off recovery rather than giving it a lift. Desperate to avoid this trap, ever more European central bankers have waded into the unfamiliar territory of negative interest rates.
Some economists consider this dangerous. Some reckon it shouldn't be possible at all. Since cash carries an implicit rate of interest of 0%, consumers might well respond to negative rates by withdrawing money from banks and stuffing it in their mattresses. The resulting shortage of loanable funds would push interest rates up (though perhaps not before causing an economy-crushing bank run). Central banks are now betting that savers won’t run for the hills—after all, storing money is costly and risky. But negative rates may create financial instability in other ways. Banks may be reluctant to pass negative rates on to depositors, lest they lose customers to other financial institutions (or the mattress). But those same banks may earn returns on their assets which vary with interest rates. Building societies, a type of mutually owned bank in Britain, are particularly dependent on their deposits, so they are reluctant to reduce deposit rates below zero. But they have assets, like mortgages, with interest payments contractually linked to the interest rate. For institutions in that position, negative rates would lead to lower profits and, eventually, to erosion of capital. Damaged financial institutions are unlikely to power a rapid recovery.
Whether other effects might prove more benign remains to be seen. The boldness of the move to negative interest rates could convince consumers that central banks are serious about beating deflation—or lead them to conclude that even zero cannot keep inflation and interest rates from tumbling. The best hope for success, however, lies in foreign-exchange markets. Negative rates might send investors in search of better returns abroad, leading to depreciation of the currency. That would raise the price of imports, helping to combat deflation and giving a growth-enhancing boost to exporters. Since the ECB introduced negative deposit rates the euro has fallen against the dollar by nearly 20%. It is no coincidence that the Danish central bank has pursued negative interest rates so zealously—its sole objective is a fixed exchange rate with the plunging euro. If currencies fall by enough, then negative rates might just pay off—provided that sinking prices elsewhere don't lead ever more of the global economy to take the plunge into sub-zero waters.
Fri Jul 19, 2024 10:30 am by faithhharris
» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:31 am by Hawk Eye
» Sri Lanka plans to allow tourists from August, no mandatory quarantine
Wed Sep 13, 2023 12:16 pm by lauryfriese
» When Will It Be Safe To Invest In The Stock Market Again?
Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:41 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Dividend Announcements
Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» MAINTENANCE NOTICE / නඩත්තු දැනුම්දීම
Thu Apr 06, 2023 3:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» ඩොලර් මිලියනයක මුදල් සම්මානයක් සහ “ෆීල්ඩ්ස් පදක්කම” පිළිගැනීම ප්රතික්ෂේප කළ ගණිතඥයා
Sun Apr 02, 2023 7:28 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» SEYB.N0000 (Seylan Bank PLC)
Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:25 am by yellow knife
» Here's what blind prophet Baba Vanga predicted for 2016 and beyond: It's not good
Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:25 am by HaeroMaero
» The Korean Way !
Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» In the Meantime Within Our Shores!
Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» What is Known as Dementia?
Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:09 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC (SLTL.N0000)
Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:18 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» THE LANKA HOSPITALS CORPORATION PLC (LHCL.N0000)
Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:10 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Equinox ( වසන්ත විෂුවය ) !
Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:28 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» COMB.N0000 (Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC)
Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:11 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» REXP.N0000 (Richard Pieris Exports PLC)
Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:02 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» RICH.N0000 (Richard Pieris and Company PLC)
Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:53 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Do You Have Computer Vision Syndrome?
Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:36 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» LAXAPANA BATTERIES PLC (LITE.N0000)
Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:23 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» What a Bank Run ?
Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:33 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» 104 Technical trading experiments by HUNTER
Wed Mar 15, 2023 4:27 pm by katesmith1304
» GLAS.N0000 (Piramal Glass Ceylon PLC)
Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:45 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Cboe Volatility Index
Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» AHPL.N0000
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:46 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» TJL.N0000 (Tee Jey Lanka PLC.)
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:43 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» CTBL.N0000 ( CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC)
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:41 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC (COMD. N.0000))
Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:43 pm by yellow knife
» Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
Fri Mar 10, 2023 1:47 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» CSD.N0000 (Seylan Developments PLC)
Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:38 am by yellow knife
» PLC.N0000 (People's Leasing and Finance PLC)
Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:02 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Bakery Products ?
Wed Mar 08, 2023 5:30 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» NTB.N0000 (Nations Trust Bank PLC)
Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Going South
Sat Mar 04, 2023 10:47 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» When Seagulls Follow the Trawler
Thu Mar 02, 2023 10:22 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Re-activating
Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» අපි තමයි හොඳටම කරේ !
Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:54 pm by ruwan326
» මේ අර් බුධය කිසිසේත්ම මා විසින් නිර්මාණය කල එකක් නොවේ
Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:43 pm by ruwan326
» SAMP.N0000 (Sampath Bank PLC)
Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:24 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» APLA.N0000 (ACL Plastics PLC)
Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:49 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» AVOID FALLING INTO ALLURING WEEKEND FAMILY PACKAGES.
Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:28 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Banks, Finance & Insurance Sector Chart
Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:26 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» VPEL.N0000 (Vallibel Power Erathna PLC)
Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:15 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» DEADLY COCKTAIL OF ISLAND MENTALITY AND PARANOID PERSONALITY DISORDER MIX.
Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:36 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» WATA - Watawala
Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:44 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
Sat Nov 05, 2022 8:42 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Capital Trust Broker in difficulty?
Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:25 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» IS PIRATING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY A BOON OR BANE?
Thu Oct 20, 2022 10:13 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» What Industry Would You Choose to Focus?
Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:39 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
» Should I Stick Around, or Should I Follow Others' Lead?
Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:07 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා