ACCESS ENGINEERING (AEL.N : LKR23.00)------Softlogic Equity Research

[CSE.SAS]

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[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks SaS

[xmartTop contributor]

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Technical ground

AEL has formed a strong base at 20 and break the MT resistance line. CCI gave bullish signal on weekly chart. currently testing 24.5 fib resistance(23.6%). breaking above 24.50 would trigger the target 28 (38.2% fib) and stop loss 21.50.

fundamental ground

currently trading at fair value. but confirm news on resumption of port city would trigger AEL future potential. still they have secured few milestone project in their pipeline which can maintain its price level. but further appreciation purely based on future prospective.

furthermore, Access Tower II is being constructing adjacent to Access Tower I, both of them owned by Access realities (Pvt) ltd which is fully owned subsidiary of Access Engineering.

Revenue, GP & EPS

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24% revenue growth over last 5 years despite unfavorable condition for construction industry in 2015, 2016.
2012-2014 earning growth is 28% but taking median (both good and bad), earning growth stand around 5% for 2012-2016.

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they have maintained ROE above 15% and GPM above 20% even in bad times.

special note: this is just for educational purposes. AEL has 1 billion shares and market capitalization around 24 billions. this is not a runner! i have pointed out possible scenarios with future prospective, but i may be terribly wrong. forming technical formation is interesting. just that!

[CKActive Member]

Thanks x. As you rightly say 1 billion shares.  Man that is huge. That's why this is very reluctant to run. Dial and rich are other examples ...they also reluctant to run due to high no. of shares.

[lanka]

Thanks,dear xmart

[smallvilleTop contributor]

Got in at 22.40 after seeing a base being formed at 22 and got my self out at 24.

Recent historic daily RSI has not gone above 76. Once it passed 75 both times (since May) it came down. So I wont be surprised to see another base being built ard 24 (new support).
Now RSI again 68 so have to be vigilant on movements above 24.50.

Good thing is this has broken its long term resistance 24, retested it and awaiting a direction. To shed some RSI pressure, it wold be ideal to build a base ard 24 before another run.

[xmartTop contributor]

RSI overbought condition is sometimes a bullish signal, not a reversal. today over 1M shares traded above 24.50. anyway, now it is best to be vigilant. 22-23 was a good buy. if anyone interested it is better to wait for a pullback. it might be 24-24.50.

[xmartTop contributor]

since i discussed this share, i think i ought to brief current developments.

AEL rejected at 27 after 20% appreciation. stock still at the bull trend with a correction taking a place. 24.5 (50% fib) to 25 (38.2% fib) would give it a support. breaking of 27-28 range is difficult but breaking of above range would trigger to test next resistance of 32.

as i said earlier, stock is fairly valued on fundamentally. further appreciation is purely back by technical and future potential.

disc: holding

[xmartTop contributor]

short term and safety oriented traders may book the profit at 27-28 level. if things goes well, we can see the target of 32, but that target is given with expected bull run. (we never know what political, environmental and economic surprises wait for us in next few months)

good luck! profit is always good.

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Technically it can move more as I think.

[xmartTop contributor]

yes path+

if AEL break 28 (38.3%) resistance, then we can easily expect 30+ figure. since buy signal was given at 22 and, i have posted about this on 24 level, i feel obligated to write since initial target is about to touch.

cheer!

[smallvilleTop contributor]

So since August from 24.50 levels AEL has reached 27.20 and come down to 24 again.
AEL's base building at 24 level has again completed. Channel was violated to perform the task, yet it was worth to have a look at 24-24.50 levels again.

Strong ASI uptrend is the key to breaking next resistance levels 26 and 28.

We must also keep in mind that December was considered to be a dull month all these years. Lets hope for a change. But if ASI up not more than 6450, breaking 28 would be a problem imo..

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[The Invisible]

So since August from 24.50 levels AEL has reached 27.20 and come down to 24 again.
AEL's base building at 24 level has again completed. Channel was violated to perform the task, yet it was worth to have a look at 24-24.50 levels again.

Strong ASI uptrend is the key to breaking next resistance levels 26 and 28.

We must also keep in mind that December was considered to be a dull month all these years. Lets hope for a change. But if ASI up not more than 6450, breaking 28 would be a problem imo..

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ASPI breaking 6450 is a tough think given the incidents line up from Jan onwards. But ASI reaching there in December is a high possibility.

Thanks