Re: REXP.N0000 (Richard Pieris Exports PLC)

[First Guy]

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Thanx FG

I was expecting this chart of yours... Once again I like the movement of this thread... We talk only about REXP here and yet it includes many aspects.. Historical charts, PEST , Forex etc...

Love to see a technical analysis of Small included here as well...

[2be]

Hi
good advice as always SLS we should not get emotional in business always think with our mind not with our hearts

[Future123Active Member]

Hi Sls sir, We all respect you as you provide good guidance to all of us. I appreciate your points and agree with you.

I sold half of my REXP and was wondering what to do with the rest. I kept half since I thought the government may not attack an export company. Now the good news came as dividends.

I agree with you sir that there are better fundamental companies at CSE. The problem is most of them don't look after the shareholders and stringy to pay dividends. Eg: LOLC, CFIN
I thought of keeping REXP due to positive government policy for exports and the high dividend yield. Though I might sell this when it reaches may be 300/= and buy back later.

I would like to hold only good dividend payers like LFIN, VFIN, REXP, KFP and TJL. Though sold most of my TJL around 35/=. No plans to sell LFIN and VFIN.

As far as BFL is concerned, I exited when EPF started dumping. It's a good share but without government support nothing is possible. My personal view is that BFL is very attractive below 150/= and I may collect just for trading (Not sure).

Thanks for guiding us sir.

This is not criticizing .. but my view on the points presented ...

There are many positives for REXP in the medium term.
2) As Rappaport said, rupee may depreciate by 10% to 15% against US$. This would boost REXP profit considerably.

10-15% increase in Rs to $ rate !!!!!
Say what ?
Thats like  Rs at 160 to 168 for $ . Really?
Did Rapa say that too?

So if $ is allowed to go up 15% , what about other companies , CSE, Sri lankan economy.

REXP is just one company. There are lot of other things to consider.

3) For the year 2015/16, REXP may report an EPS of over Rs. 32. and declare a dividend closer to 20/= or more. (REXP didn't declare a dividend in October 2015 as they had to pay Super gain taxes. A divided was due in Oct 2015)

The dividend they declared today makes up more than the  combined amount they gave via  2 dividends last year.   So  this dividend maybe (better be ) the only one ( for REXP sake)   for 2016 financial year.  

4) Even there is no growth in 2016/17, REXP may still report an EPS of over 40/= due to reduction in CT and rupee depreciation.

Hmm...  In any case even if they can come up with Rs 40 eps somehow ( lets see) it does not mean   it should be  a Rs 400-500 share. I already warned   before for public concern.  If it gets pushed too far it will fall burning many people .

Let me point out something, you may not like to hear. Unless REXP come up with a magic  eps for March ( which I doubt), REXP at Rs 250 is overvalued compared to other good companies trading in this market. But going by future possibility, Rs 250 is kind of okay for now.

This is not demotion for REXP in anyway. As I said, REXP earning potential is still there.

But sometimes 1+1 != 2    ( != means not equal)


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I am sorry Future. I know you rep me sometimes. You agree with me sometimes.
So I may risk loosing that for saying this.
But I have to go with my heart and conscious here.

I noted sometimes you are extreme ( negative or positive) .

a) I saw too much positivity with poultry/BFL when you quoted big numbers  ( like RS 350 etc) and didn't like what I said then even to make sense. I guess you may have sold BFL then right?


Btw,  I just got to know ( and  checked myself) in cyber space,   certain  parties who went to the moon with poultry and some shares  is now all of a sudden  saying ............................!
Wow.      


b) Then I saw your  big negative views on government.


So what I request is  best we play balanced. It will bring you  peace of mind  too.

[slstockVeteran]

Alright I see.

Yes BFL is getting attractive now. But ... lot depends on... ( I explained this elsewhere before)

CFIN dividend is stingy alright. For KFP time is still okay, but play careful with that too.
When something goes wrong ( well so far okay ) ... it can reverse like crazy. ( same applies for REXP)

Hi Sls sir, We all respect you as you provide good guidance to all of us. I appreciate your points and agree with you.

I sold half of my REXP and was wondering what to do with the rest. I kept half since I thought the government may not attack an export company. Now the good news came as dividends.

I agree with you sir that there are better fundamental companies at CSE. The problem is most of them don't look after the shareholders and stringy to pay dividends. Eg: LOLC, CFIN
I thought of keeping REXP due to positive government policy for exports and the high dividend yield. Though I might sell this when it reaches may be 300/= and buy back later.

I would like to hold only good dividend payers like LFIN, VFIN, REXP, KFP and TJL. Though sold most of my TJL around 35/=. No plans to sell LFIN and VFIN.

As far as BFL is concerned, I exited when EPF started dumping. It's a good share but without government support nothing is possible. My personal view is that BFL is very attractive below 150/= and I may collect just for trading (Not sure).

Thanks for guiding us sir.

This is not criticizing .. but my view on the points presented ...

There are many positives for REXP in the medium term.
2) As Rappaport said, rupee may depreciate by 10% to 15% against US$. This would boost REXP profit considerably.

10-15% increase in Rs to $ rate !!!!!
Say what ?
Thats like  Rs at 160 to 168 for $ . Really?
Did Rapa say that too?

So if $ is allowed to go up 15% , what about other companies , CSE, Sri lankan economy.

REXP is just one company. There are lot of other things to consider.

3) For the year 2015/16, REXP may report an EPS of over Rs. 32. and declare a dividend closer to 20/= or more. (REXP didn't declare a dividend in October 2015 as they had to pay Super gain taxes. A divided was due in Oct 2015)

The dividend they declared today makes up more than the  combined amount they gave via  2 dividends last year.   So  this dividend maybe (better be ) the only one ( for REXP sake)   for 2016 financial year.  

4) Even there is no growth in 2016/17, REXP may still report an EPS of over 40/= due to reduction in CT and rupee depreciation.

Hmm...  In any case even if they can come up with Rs 40 eps somehow ( lets see) it does not mean   it should be  a Rs 400-500 share. I already warned   before for public concern.  If it gets pushed too far it will fall burning many people .

Let me point out something, you may not like to hear. Unless REXP come up with a magic  eps for March ( which I doubt), REXP at Rs 250 is overvalued compared to other good companies trading in this market. But going by future possibility, Rs 250 is kind of okay for now.

This is not demotion for REXP in anyway. As I said, REXP earning potential is still there.

But sometimes 1+1 != 2    ( != means not equal)


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I am sorry Future. I know you rep me sometimes. You agree with me sometimes.
So I may risk loosing that for saying this.
But I have to go with my heart and conscious here.

I noted sometimes you are extreme ( negative or positive) .

a) I saw too much positivity with poultry/BFL when you quoted big numbers  ( like RS 350 etc) and didn't like what I said then even to make sense. I guess you may have sold BFL then right?


Btw,  I just got to know ( and  checked myself) in cyber space,   certain  parties who went to the moon with poultry and some shares  is now all of a sudden  saying ............................!
Wow.      


b) Then I saw your  big negative views on government.


So what I request is  best we play balanced. It will bring you  peace of mind  too.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

How about JINS & CFVF ?
(Historically they used to declare something in February).  

Kith
I ve seen Mother and Son relationship among shares...
Subsidiaries declare fantastic dividends as poor father need more money.. But father ( the holding company) is very careful ( to pay dividends as money go out)....

[Market loverTop contributor]

Hope student learns from teacher

[Future123Active Member]

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RICH plans to double it's export of Latex mattresses to the US and Europe. Their export arm is REXP.

Refer page 2 of the Fitch Rating Report.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

After a very successful year we are again evaluating REXP.N0000

One clear factor of all companies managed by Dr. Sena Yaddehige is lack of artistic impression of annual reports. TPL , DIMO, PLC, often come up with very artistic talents in their annual reports..Irrespective of whether the company is making impressive profit or not REXP, Namun, Kegalle, RPC never come with colourful attractive annual reports.

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The year was the best year of REXP

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Many were worried about the combination of Market Price to Net Asset Value. Net Asset Value is growing faster.

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

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Kegalle is the biggest rubber planter and REXP is the manufacturer of the rubber.. 2011 was the best year for rubber as price rocketed up giving the best for KGAL.N0000 but the rubber price started to come down since then and REXP being the user of this raw material started to record impressive results and luckily both belong to same group

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

In some companies market value often stayed well below net assets value. But REXP often shows big difference between Market Price and Net Asset Value.

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[CKActive Member]

thank you YK

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

PE ratio of the company is hoovering around 5


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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Another factor which surprises me is Revenue of Plantation sector.

Revenue is the function of P*Q. P pr Price is decided by world commodity market and beyond the control of the planter. Q or quantity is based on weather condition of the country which is also beyond the control of the company.

But in manufacturing sector both P and Q is decided by the company . Hence manufacturers often end up with steady growth in revenue...Raw material cost will affect to profit and EPS..

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

The company made impressive profits for the year .

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We can assign following reasons for this profit growth

1. Changes in Product Mix
2. Acute decline in rubber price
3. fall in energy cost
4. Exporter friendly LKR depreciation
5. Prudent working capital management
6. Increase in labour productivity
7. Fall in finance cost
7.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Little bit of History of the company

REXP is now 32 years old.

It started with a meager share capital of Rs 75,000 in 1983 and the company made diversified with two subsidiaries and one Associate.

REXP started with exporting few designs of large ring mats to Europe and USA in 1984.

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The operations were carried out in a leased out small factory at Ratmalana. The presses were fabricated in Hong Kong by a roadside supplier whose quality matched cost and requirement.

The companies initial range included entrance mats, mats for work stations, gymnasiums and food service sector .

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The company by now pioneer products like fire retardant mats, electrical resistive  mats and special mats for stable where well being of the livestock is considered.

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

REXP product range now add food jar sealing rings for European markets since 1986. This is very popular in German and France.

In Germany the most popular home canning system is the Weck brand for which REXP is the exclusive supplier for sealing rings for 25 years.

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

In 1994 REXP started producing Latexfoam products through the subsidiary Richard Pieris Natural Foams LTd.

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Another product offered by REXP is crutch tips and started exporting since 1997. Kowsky of Sweden is the world leading crutch supplier and REXP is the exclusive supplier of the crutch tips to the company.

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The company produce resin shoe soling sheets by Arpitalin Compact Soles Pvt LTD since 1999.

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[yellow knifeTop contributor]

In 2015 REXP commissioned the world's first natural latex continuous sheeting plant at Biyagama FTZ. This considered as a major breakthrough for the Latexfoam industry.

Pure Latex Foam sheeting with the Organic Certification has made its mark as an Eco-friendly product in the high end markets in Europe and USA.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

One very good example to show how the rubber price decline affected to the manufacturer is .............

The revenue and PBT of Arpitalin Compact Soles Pvt LTd grew by 4% and 78% in 2015 aided by acute declien in raw materials and other factors mentioned above like forex.

[Future123Active Member]

Another consistent performance by REXP.

Quarterly EPS is Rs. 10.39 an increase of 11%

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We can expect a good dividend. REXP is a generous dividend payer and last year they declared Rs. 12.50 and this year I expect it to be over Rs.15.

[sj123]

Thanks YK

[Jana1Top contributor]

Good one YK. Also insist one point, as long as crude price is bottom rubber price will be in bottom hence REXP make double benefit, low raw material and low energy cost for production.

If commodity prices start to pick up it will get double blows, higher price and higher energy cost, so it will be in 2009 scenario. The only question is when?? quite obviously by 2020, REXP will suffer, but till 2018 it can survive..

[Future123Active Member]

Today US$ is Rs. 150.01.
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Time to focus on export companies especially REXP.

REXP exports 97% of it's products and it will gain a lot due to rupee depreciation. Rupee will further depreciate in 2017 as we don't have any foreign investments coming to the country.