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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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HAL9000
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    Sri Lankan Equities To Grow 25% Next 5-years

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    Post by stocks hunter Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:21 pm

    Sri Lankan equity market returns will grow 25 percent annually during the 5-years up to 2020, and the country will be flooded with foreign capital as Sri Lanka will reach investment grade status, according to an experience fund manager.According to Dulindra Fernando, the Sri Lankan economy is going to see her best 5-years since independence from 2015 through 2020, and said one could ill afford to stay out of the stock market as the 5-years ahead will never be repeated.“We expect the stock market to perform at an average of 25 percent per annum over the next 5years,” he said.According to Fernando, the current phase of super returns in the Colombo bourse will most likely be ended after 2020, as the The super returns that are currently offered by the bourse will be over by 2020 market reaches its maturity.

    “The super returns that are currently offered by the bourse will be over by 2020 as the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) will reach maturity as a market by then.Returns could also be lower due to the high level of foreign participation. Further, Sri Lankan economy will also slow down after the rapid growth in the preceding 5-years which will also slow down the growth of listed entities,” explained Fernando who initiated the country’s first dollar bond fund.
    Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) benchmark price index, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) returns have grown by 23 percent annually during the last 5-years and the market is trading at PE multiple of 19.52 which is considered over-valued.

    At 25 percent annual return, an investor who invests in Sri Lankan equities today will be able to see his investment tripling in 5-years.Fernando who is also the Ceylon Asset Management Company Limited (CAM) Managing Director urged retailers to get in to Lankan equities now than later as the opportunity is now available.Fernando also expects Sri Lanka to be upgraded from the current BB- (by Fitch) to the investment grade rating of BBB by 2020.
    Sri Lanka’s current under-investment grade rating hinders most international funds, emerging market funds, pension funds etc from investing in Sri Lankan equities and bonds as they can only invest in BBB rated instruments.

    “Once you get to BBB, most pension funds (US) will invest with you. Sri Lanka will be flooded with money (capital). After you go to BBB, you won’t get double digit returns,” he explained.Meanwhile the emerging market investment advisor and CAM Director, Michael Preiss however told most of the money is made during the transition period from under-investment grade to the investment grade. This is because of the relatively higher interest incomes and potentially higher capital gains an investor could make during this period.

    Further, an investment grade rating will pressure Sri Lankan bond yields down further while the prices pushing up benefits future dollar bond issuers.
    At present, US $ 7.0 billion worth of Sri Lankan issued dollar bonds; sovereign, bank and corporate bonds are listed on the Singapore Exchange

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    Post by jonta999 Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:38 pm

    Hmmm..interesting
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    Post by Nuinth Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:45 pm

    Thx for sharing SH.

    Time to select future growing industries & select the shares for face the boom.

    Good luck.
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    Post by HAL9000 Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:12 pm

    Nuinth wrote:Thx for sharing SH.

    Time to select future growing industries & select the shares for face the boom.

    Good luck.

    Some foreign investors have already done that smartly and continue to do so. Recent market free fall on 13 th October was really beneficial for them, since then foreign inflow was significant. Like I said before this unusual drop was apparently induced give way to some foreign players to enter.
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    Post by Antonym Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:56 pm

    It is important to be able to distinguish hype from reality: While it is certainly possible that 2015-2020 will be a golden era for Sri Lankan equities, I don't believe that 25% returns per year are likely over such an extended period.

    If Fernando had said 15-20% compounded returns over the next 2 years, I would certainly have believed him.
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    Post by Ianian Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:06 pm

    I tend to agree with Antonym. 25% growth annually over a 5 year period seems a bit far fetched.
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    Post by dhanurrox Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:21 pm

    Not possible
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    Post by slstock Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:55 pm

    So by 2019 ASI needs to be 22000

    That part maybe possible if economy is on a very healthy track but whether ASI can grow 25% a year continuously every year ... hmm


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    Post by slstock Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:45 pm

    Wait, not 22000 but it should be 29000+ isn't it.

    A bit too much to think about ...




    slstock wrote:So by 2019 ASI needs to be 22000

    That part maybe possible if economy is on a very healthy track but whether ASI can grow 25% a year continuously every year ... hmm


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