Plantation Sector : Valuation Guide (01) - Based on EPS and PBV

Valuation Guide to Plantation Sector I : Plantations with Oil Palm Exposure

WATA rocks!!!

MADU,MASK,BOGA seems to be 100% Tea companies. What's your idea about thoese companies? Plus UDPL,TPL are 99% Tea companies as well. Now the time is for a tea no?

Tea is starting to knock, then it will rock and bring the plantations into unforeseen highs in 2016 (weather permitting), fueled by the increased consumption in China/India outpaced by manufacturing reduction in Kenya due to drought.

Have you taken the wage hike factor into consideration?

There are early sign for better rubber but it is far too early yet. Other issues can offset rubber gains.

Only palm oil companies are a bit safer at this time May 2015)


Anyway be careful on plantation for next 6 months.

DocStock wrote:Tea is starting to knock, then it will rock and bring the plantations into unforeseen highs in 2016 (weather permitting), fueled by the increased consumption in China/India outpaced by manufacturing reduction in Kenya due to drought.

Tea, rubber prices fall linked to global trend: Planters’ Association
Published : 2:26 am May 5, 2015 |

PA urges Govt. to include RPCs for guaranteed price scheme
Says world commodity prices forecast to reduce further in 2015 with no respite in sight

The Planters’ Association of Ceylon yesterday warned that the drastic fall in local tea and rubber prices – which has led to major losses for Regional Plantation Companies – is part of a broader global trend of decline in commodity prices, which is not expected to reverse in the near future.
The Association, which represents 22 Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) collectivelyemploying nearly 200,000 workers, explaining that prices are depressed at present due to external reasons, noted that global forecasts reflected a bleak future in the medium term for commodity prices in general.
In its ‘Commodity Market Outlook’ earlier this year, the World Bank forecasted a decline in all nine key commodity price indices in 2015. Indicating a prolonged slump, the report said, “By 2016, a recovery in the prices of some commodities is likely to be underway, although the increases will be small compared to the depths already reached.”
More worryingly, the report indicates that prices of agricultural raw materials which fell by more than 35% between early 2011 and the end of 2014 will continue to contract this year.

Similar to other commodities, prices of tea and rubber have dropped substantially in the world market. According to World Bank data, on average the global price of tea in 2014 was only $ 2.72 – which is lower than in 2013 and 2012 – during which prices were $ 2.86 and $ 2.9 respectively.
Due to other reasons such as turmoil in key export markets including Russia and the Middle East, the price of Ceylon Tea has dipped more sharply. By the first week of April 2015 (on a ‘to-date’ basis) the average price of tea was Rs. 66 (or 13.7%) less than it was a year before at the Colombo Tea Auction.
The fall in price of rubber in the world market has been far more dramatic. From $ 3.38 a kilogramin 2012, rubber (RSS3) has fallen by over 40% to $ 1.96 a kilogramin 2014. In the local market too rubber (RSS3) has declined from Rs. 295 per kg in March 2014 to Rs. 217.50 per kg in March 2015.
“The sharp decline in commodity prices has been highly unfavourable to the Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) not only directly, but indirectly as well, since many of the major buyers of Ceylon Tea including Russia and the Middle East are major exporters of commodities themselves and the fall in commodity prices reduce their purchasing ability,” Planters’ Association of Ceylon Chairman Roshan Rajadurai explained.

“The situation has become more challenging as the fall in prices comes at a time in which the key markets of Russia, Middle East and Ukraine that account for over 70% of exports of Ceylon Tea, are facing turmoil due to economic sanctions, currency depreciation and military conflict. Buyers have thus switched to lower quality tea available at lower prices and large quantities of teas remain unsold at the weekly Colombo Tea Auctions. The RPCs are forced to increase their borrowings in order to pay the wages and other commitments to the workers and to keep the cash flow intact,” Rajadurai added, noting that in this scenario reducing costs through improved productivity is the only viable solution.
Due to massive losses in both tea and rubber, with production costs at present exceeding prices received at auctions, 19 RPCs collectively made a loss of nearly Rs. 2,850 million on rubber and tea in 2014.
Late last year it was reported that even tea growers in South India are facing a crisis situation amidst falling prices, despite wages of pluckers there being substantially less than in Sri Lanka and the commitment of the companies to the welfare of their worker families also being significantly less than in the case of Sri Lanka.
It was reported that the Indian Rubber Plantations were making a loss for the first time in 80 years, reflecting that the global downturn in commodity prices, both in Tea and Rubber, has significantly impacted the viability of not only plantations in Sri Lanka but those in the neighbouring countries as well.

There are about 400,000 tea smallholders and about 200,000 smallholders in the rubber sector in Sri Lanka. Reflecting the severe fall in commodity prices, the Government has introduced guaranteed prices of Rs. 80 per kg for tea green leaf and Rs. 350per kg for rubber (RSS 1) for the smallholder sector, thus justifying and acknowledging that the prices realised at the Colombo Auctions are not remunerative and are below the cost of production, Rajadurainoted.
“However, it is a matter of regret that the Regional Plantation Companies, which are also producers of tea and rubber,have been exempt from these beneficial schemes while the commitments and liabilities of the Regional Plantation Companies towards their workers and the resident population in their plantations numbering close to one million is far in excess and are incomparable to that of the smallholders,” he said.
The Planters’ Association (PA) Chairman noted that Regional Plantation Companies have to meet all statutory requirements such as EPF, ETF, gratuity, 20 days paid holidays, paid sick leave, attendance bonus, maternity benefits, statutory maternity leave, free maternal and childcare on the estates itself, allowances, free issue ofmedicines, drugs, vaccinations and medicines, total custodian childcare up to five years and guaranteed 300 days of work irrespective of the level of production or the general trading conditions prevailing.

In addition to these facilities, health, sanitation, housing, water, social services, welfare, community facilities and amenities are provided freeofcharge to the whole population resident in the plantations, Rajadurai reminded.
“While the PA appreciates the magnanimity of the Government towards the smallholders, likewise the Regional Plantation Companies which are very significant in the whole supply chain of commodities from production to sale should also be considered even-handedly. Any disruption or dislocation to the formal sector of the plantation industry would have far reaching and long-lasting adverse repercussions because of the million or so people who are dependent on the industry and are resident in the Regional Plantation Company estates,” he cautioned.

Indeed I forgot the wage hike factor. But that gives me more leeway. And I feel I was overtly euphoric to start with.

What I mean to say is things are/may/will get worse giving more opportunities, but above factors will make these plantations profitable in 2016. Maybe I'm looking to put amuda before 7 miles of sea; but thats just my speculation.

Thanks BS and SLS.

slstock wrote:Have you taken the wage hike factor into consideration?

There are early sign for better rubber but it is far too early  yet. Other issues can offset rubber gains.

Only palm oil companies are  a bit safer at this time May 2015)


Anyway be careful on plantation for next 6 months.

DocStock wrote:Tea is starting to knock, then it will rock and bring the plantations into unforeseen highs in 2016 (weather permitting), fueled by the increased consumption in China/India outpaced by manufacturing reduction in Kenya due to drought.

What I mean is don't rush into buying big time now. Wait till iron is hotter.

DocStock wrote:Indeed I forgot the wage hike factor. But that gives me more leeway. And I feel I was overtly euphoric to start with.

What I mean to say is things are/may/will get worse giving more opportunities, but above factors will make these plantations profitable in 2016. Maybe I'm looking to put amuda before 7 miles of sea; but thats just my speculation.

Thanks BS and SLS.

slstock wrote:Have you taken the wage hike factor into consideration?

There are early sign for better rubber but it is far too early  yet. Other issues can offset rubber gains.

Only palm oil companies are  a bit safer at this time May 2015)


Anyway be careful on plantation for next 6 months.

DocStock wrote:Tea is starting to knock, then it will rock and bring the plantations into unforeseen highs in 2016 (weather permitting), fueled by the increased consumption in China/India outpaced by manufacturing reduction in Kenya due to drought.

Kerry assures better times for tea trade with Iran
2015-05-06 07:10:48

Unites States Secretary of State, John Kerry had indicated that Sri Lanka’s tea trade, which was affected by US sanctions on Iran, would be normalised within few weeks, a minister said yesterday.

Sri Lanka was unable to export tea directly to Iran because of the US sanctions and therefore the government has been compelled to subsidize the prices.

However, government leaders including Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, Foreign Affairs Minister Mangala Samaraweera and Planation Minister Lakshman Kiriella raised this matter when they met Mr. Kerry during his visit to Sri Lanka.

He is reported to have said his country was at a delicate stage in the negotiations with Iran on sanctions and requested the Sri Lankan leaders to wait for a few more weeks for any results.

Mr. Kiriella told Daily Mirror that Sri Lankan exporters were unable to open Letters of Credit for their tea exports to Iran because of the sanctions.

“Currently, tea exports to Iran are carried out through third parties. This results in high prices in that market and as such the exporters are at a disadvantage,” he said.

He said 70 per cent of the tea was produced by small holders in Sri Lanka.

During the pre-sanction days Sri Lanka exported nearly Rs.200 million worth of tea ti Iran annually.