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Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month

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Post by The Invisible on Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:38 pm

Aug 08, 2019 (LBO) – The national average for the month of July 2019 totalled 497.35 rupees against 494.48 rupees of June 2019, showing a marginal increase of 2.87 rupees month on month and in comparison to July 2018 average of 537.88 rupees however shows a decrease of 40.53 rupees.

When analyzing the respective elevational averages for the month of July 2019-high growns, totalling 449.10 rupees for July 2019 have recorded a decrease of 9.45 rupees vis-à-vis 458.55 rupees of June 2019.

When compared to July 2018, a significant decrease of 84.95 rupees is recorded YOY.

Mediums averaging 414.40 rupees for July 2019 have recorded a decrease of 16.34 rupees vis-à-vis 430.74 rupees of June 2019.

However, against July 2018 which recorded 478.95 rupees, shows a sharp decrease of 64.55 rupees.

Meanwhile, Low Growns totalling 538.63 rupees for July 2019 have recorded an increase of 12.11 rupees vis-à-vis 526.52 rupees of June 2019.

When compared to 555.71 rupees of July 2018, shows a decrease of 17.08 rupees YOY.

When analyzing the January-July 2019 cumulative average of 549.99 rupees, a decrease of 42.56 rupees is recorded vis-à-vis 592.55 rupees of January-July 2018.

High growns for the period January-July 2019 of 518.66 rupees have shown a decrease of 50.21 rupees vis-à-vis 568.87 rupees of January-July 2018.

Mediums too, averaging 476.75 rupees have shown a decrease of 54.76 rupees vis-à-vis 531.51 rupees of January-July 2018.

Meanwhile, low growns totalling 580.42 rupees for January-July 2019 have shown a decline of 35.70 rupees vis-à-vis 616.12 rupees of January-July 2018.

Both, the month and cumulative averages, show a greater decrease in USD terms compared to the corresponding period of 2018 due to the devaluation of the Sri Lankan rupee YOY.
The Invisible
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Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month Empty Re: Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month

Post by Topcat on Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:06 pm

Invi wht u think about plantations? Good buying seen on ldev and some silent collection was going on others ..

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Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month Empty Re: Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month

Post by The Invisible on Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:42 am

Topcat wrote:Invi wht u think about plantations? Good buying seen on ldev and some silent collection was going on others ..

Plantation sector condition as of now is not very good compared to what it was in 2017/18 so we can't expect that kind of rally so soon.

ATM prices are low YoY, not much improvement in qty either. The wage hike added extra pressures on the P&L. Exchange rate is relatively stable now so that the companies cant get advantage from that as well.

However the out look can change if Sri Lanka can get into the Iran market once again. As plantation officials stated they are putting some effort to get Iran again through a trade pact in Q4 but we need to wait and see. Another point is that the plantation ministry is pushing RPC's for replanting and to increase the productive land mars which will improve the production in the medium to longer term. Another plus factor was the reduction in export levy.

I believe the confirmation of Sri Lanka's return to Iran market will trigger an interest in the quarter/s to come.

In terms of LDEV I would like to attribute the rise from 3.50 to 4.00 to a technical rise rather than fundamental rise. Because we could clearly see the market liquidity was mopping up till 3.50 for a considerable period of time. The current run has the power to take the stock to even 4.50.

Better to watch out for new developments as I stated some earlier which can change the current outlook.
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Post by Topcat on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:19 pm

Thanks invi. Super .

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