The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 2:59 pm by The Invisible

» Gota's era
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 1:28 pm by yellow knife

» ඇඟට නොදැනී ප්‍රතිඋත්තර දෙන හැටි
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 9:28 am by ruwan326

» මගේ කියවීම ...
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 8:28 am by yellow knife

» භාරකාර ආණ්ඩුවක් හෙට
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 1:39 am by nihal123

» How the silence on this !
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyYesterday at 5:40 pm by Backstage

» Thread for News on Local and Foreign Politics
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyYesterday at 5:36 pm by Backstage

» Dividend Announcement
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyYesterday at 3:45 pm by Rana

» SEYB.N0000 ( SEYLAN BANK PLC )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyYesterday at 4:19 am by NIRMALSG

» ප්‍රතිඵලේ මොකක් උනත් ජ්යෝතිෂය සත්‍ය වෙන හැටි දැක්කද?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Nov 18, 2019 9:15 am by ruwan326

» Technology~විද්‍යාව ~ Wisdom
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Nov 17, 2019 7:14 am by ruwan326

» ඇයි අප්සට් ද?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 16, 2019 4:57 pm by chutiputha

» ගෝඨාට ඉල්ලන්න බෑලු
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 16, 2019 7:18 am by ruwan326

» සෞභාග්‍යතා දර්ශකයේ ඉහළ යාමක්
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Nov 15, 2019 1:54 pm by nihal123

» Puolanka The most pessimistic town
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Nov 15, 2019 1:14 pm by Backstage

» SAMP.N0000 (SAMPATH BANK PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Nov 14, 2019 5:13 am by NIRMALSG

» අනං මනං! #/+?.<>
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Nov 11, 2019 12:38 pm by nihal123

» Thread for News on CSE and SL Economy
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Nov 11, 2019 10:51 am by ruwan326

» What's 5G?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 09, 2019 3:14 pm by Afourer

» ACL කේබල්ස් ට රුපියල් මිලියන 789 ක ඒරියල් බන්ඩල් සන්නායක කොන්ත්‍රාත්තුවක්
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 09, 2019 7:50 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ලාෆ් ගෑස් සමාඟමට එරෙහිව විනිමය කොමිසමෙන් නඩු
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 09, 2019 3:05 am by Rana

» CFVF - First Capital
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Nov 08, 2019 8:36 pm by hammurabi

» Hayleys MGT
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Nov 06, 2019 10:13 pm by seek

» Thought for the day...
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Nov 06, 2019 10:24 am by ruwan326

» මෑතකාලීන ආර්ථික ප්‍රවණතා: 2019 සුවිශේෂ සිදුවීම් සහ 2020 අපේක්ෂාවන්
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue Nov 05, 2019 1:22 pm by nihal123

» DIPD.N0000 (Dipped Products)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Nov 03, 2019 9:13 pm by spw19721

» IMF approves disbursement of USD 164 million for Sri Lanka
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Nov 03, 2019 6:50 pm by Backstage

» Recent tax developments on residential condominium properties
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Nov 03, 2019 5:56 pm by Backstage

» Local Palm Oil Industry
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Nov 03, 2019 4:44 am by serene

» CTBL.N0000 ( CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Nov 02, 2019 10:00 pm by hammurabi

» LPL.N0000
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Nov 01, 2019 8:35 pm by Admin

» LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Oct 27, 2019 9:08 pm by PANTOMATH

» දුක බෙදාගත් හැටි
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Oct 27, 2019 6:48 pm by serene

» මේ විදියට තව අවුරුදු 5ක් ගියොත් දකුණු ආසියාවේ දුප්පත්ම රට බවට ශ්‍රී ලංකාව පත්වේවි – මහාචාර්ය එච්.ඩී. කරුණාරත්න
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 25, 2019 9:31 pm by ruwan326

» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 25, 2019 8:26 am by yellow knife

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Oct 24, 2019 5:57 pm by dhanurrox

» RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC ( RAL.N0000 )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Oct 24, 2019 10:13 am by lanka

» Forex Trading කළොත් නඩු
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Oct 23, 2019 11:09 am by nihal123

» East West properties
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Oct 23, 2019 7:00 am by slstock

» Food and Beverages
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Oct 21, 2019 7:54 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Devolution of power, civil wars, altruism, nepotism in animal world
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 18, 2019 10:15 pm by Backstage

» RCL - Royal Ceramics
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Oct 14, 2019 12:47 pm by seek

» Performance of the Market-Weekly
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat Oct 12, 2019 4:29 am by ruwan326

» Confidence to boom after election – CBSL Governor
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 11, 2019 4:09 pm by Backstage

» Sri Lanka among top 20 rising stars of world trade
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 11, 2019 4:08 pm by Backstage

» CLND Not to miss
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Oct 10, 2019 9:24 am by ruwan326

» අපි නොදන්න ගීතයක කතාව
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Oct 04, 2019 11:55 am by nuwanmja

» මූඩීස් ප්‍රකාශය පිළිගන්න බැහැ – මහ බැංකුව කියයි
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Oct 02, 2019 6:46 am by nihal123

» ආර්ථික වර්ධනය 2.7% ට බසී
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue Oct 01, 2019 1:29 pm by nihal123

» Ranil agrees to give Sajith candidacy - AdaDetana
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Sep 26, 2019 5:05 pm by mymoney

November 2019
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by nihal123 on Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:21 pm

Don't Predict: It Will Bias Buy/Sell Decisions


Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

By Dr. Winton Felt


People often ask and pundits often debate the question: "Are we in a bull market that has just had a correction, or are we seeing the beginning of a new bear market?" People seem to debate such questions endlessly in the media and on Internet forums. Trying to predict the market is fun and can sometimes be satisfying to the ego. It is enjoyable to talk about such things at gatherings or around the water cooler. It gives a person a chance to look bright or knowledgeable. We all like to seem intelligent..

However, it is not intelligent for a trader to indulge in such activities. In fact, it is a big mistake for a serious trader to do so. Why? It entices the trader to develop a market bias. That is not all that it does. When the trader expresses an opinion to others, the trader then has a vested interest in that opinion being right. It reflects on his intelligence and expertise as a trader. That bias can influence decisions about buying or selling. When a position deteriorates, the trader might be more inclined to "hold and hope" rather than sell. If his opinion had not been aired publicly, he might sell more quickly.

Our own traders know that the most consistently profitable traders are those who have learned to live in the present. The trader should be focusing on "what is" rather than what he or she thinks "ought to be." Market conditions are constantly changing. A trader's perspective on a stock can change dramatically in a matter of minutes or even seconds. The trader can be more nimble with a mind that is flexible and free from the shackles of ego-satisfying pronouncements.

Let's assume that the market has just had a sharp decline and that we conclude it is a bull market correction rather than a new bear market. The opinion that the decline is only a bull market correction has nothing to do with how we trade. We do not invest with the notion that the market is about to rise because we believe it is, after all, a bull market. Instead, we focus on what the primary trend is right now. For us, the primary trend is currently down, and it will remain down until it becomes flat or until it is no longer down, and it will remain in that condition until it changes again. The primary trend is the trend that is most important to your investment time-horizon for a particular investment. For example, if you are looking to capture the gain a stock makes in a week, then the fact that its 200-day moving average is declining may not be particularly important to you. However, a declining 20-day average could be very important. If the 200-day average is declining but the 20-day average is rising, then you might buy a stock that gaps above the upper boundary of a trading range on a 100% increase in volume. If you are looking for a gain of 5% or more in a week or two, the fact that the 200-day average is in decline may be irrelevant to you. On the other hand, for a long-term holder a rising 200-day average could be very important. That person might consider it irrelevant that the 10-day average is declining.

Our own stockdisciplines.com traders tend to use the 50-day moving average as an indicator of the general direction of the market. Within the context of that direction, there may be counter-currents. For example, we may have a declining 50-day average but a 20-day average that has started to rise. If the position we are considering is likely to be closed out in a week, then we may decide that the current trend is on our side. What we believe about the ultimate direction of the market is not important, nor is it relevant to what we do. What the market is doing right now with regard to the investment time-horizon for the stock under consideration is very important. Always invest with regard to the current context. Crystal balls are cloudy, sometimes deceptive, and always irrelevant when planning a trade.

Get more on this, and see a list of tutorials on disciplines for investors and traders.

http://www.stockdisciplines.com/bull-bear-market
nihal123
nihal123
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5866
Join date : 2014-02-24
Age : 53
Location : Waga

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by CK on Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:32 am

Thank you nihal. Good reading about trading and also ego.
CK
CK
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1392
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:22 pm

There are two sides guys.

It has always been a strong believer of one thing who would make extraordinary gains.

++++++++

On the other hand; it is the same with extra ordinary losers also.
Yin-Yang
Yin-Yang

Posts : 1269
Join date : 2016-03-12

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by pjrngroup on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:10 pm

Thanks Nihal.

pjrngroup

Posts : 404
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by CK on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:18 pm

Yin-Yang wrote:There are two sides guys.

It has always been a strong believer of one thing who would make extraordinary gains.

++++++++

On the other hand; it is the same with extra ordinary losers also.
True
CK
CK
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1392
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:29 pm

Thanks Nihal.
Ethical Trader
Ethical Trader
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5532
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum