Share interpretations leading to Manipulations

Shares can be manipulated using Fundamentals, Technical or even by stating that the predictor is of Super Human Nature.

We have seen above three types of Manipulative efforts.

My article here is to show how the fundamental accounting ratios can be interpreted in a Manipulative manner.

Let me take TPL as an example. So far I have never seen manipulative promotional literature in forums targeting to promote this specific share. Therefore I don't believe it will hurt any one

For this reason one very good Ratio is net assets value of a share.

For this interpretation of Net Assets Value of a share is used. Warren Buffet said if a share is trading below net assets value its attractive. He further said if Market value /Net Assets value is below 1.5 its still attractive.

From that argument TPL must be trading above 88 and it will be attractive until it reach Rs 132. Yet it is trading at the moment 46.10.

Above interpretations would lead one to believe current prices are attractive. Yet if we look at past TPL was always trading well below net assets value and the same applies to mostly to  plantation industry...








Hence no one needs to fall into traps of Net Assets when evaluating plantation sector. However one cannot neglect the fact that when Net asset level goes up market price also goes up proportionately.

What I still can't fathom is how do they go home and feed their families with their ill gotten gains.

The other factor often used by Fundamental Analysts is quoting lower PE ratio. Thus PE ratios below 10 seems to be attractive. It lead for share buyers on fundamentals to believe that share price will reach 10 in PE ratio no sooner they buy shares trading at and around 5 or less.

If PE ratio of TPL is at 10 and as the EPS for last year was 9.84 it must be trading at 98..

Yet if we look at the past PE ratios of TPL it has never traded around 10

Another very fantastic fact often mentioned by Manipulators is last quarters earnings and multiplying it by 4 to reach at the annual EPS.

Now if we take the last quarters EPS of TPL , its 11.7 for the Group. If so if we multiply that by 4 we get an annualized EPS of 46.8. At different PE ratios these will be the price of  TPL

Market Price	140.4	234	280.8	327.6	374.4	421.2	468
EPS	46.8	46.8	46.8	46.8	46.8	46.8	46.8
PE ratio	3	5	6	7	8	9	10

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:What I still can't fathom is how do they go home and feed their families with their ill gotten gains.

1) Kiths,  forget "them" for a minute.

2) After taking a quick glance, all I know is this thread is going to  be so valuable to so many innocent to save their skin  ( if they want to read/learn)  

Also I know , other who like manipulation or don't like educational warnings will be upset with this thread

This might end up being one YK most valuable posts

Yet what is the guarantee that the same quarterly EPS will be repeated forever...

Sometimes the Manipulators make us forget the fact that one time earnings can be the reason for a massive EPS for a quarter

Now for TPL the last quarters EPS of 11.7 is higher than any annual EPS recorded so far

An annual report consist of many data and TPL annual report is one of the best in Plantation sector.

Ok what are the factors we have to read in addition to financials. In today's annual reports include some articles on Risk management.

From page 162 to 172 of the annual report 2017 is dedicated to Risk Management. The red boxed critical events are

1. Socio-economic and Political Risks

It further says since revenue generated from black tea is exceeding 95% of the total revenue, changes in global market conditions impact and erode the profit margin.

Now what...?

Now the last quarter was very peaceful in Arabic world, Russia is getting some positives from EU, Iran getting out of sanctions...

Will this nice Geo-politics will remain in the next quarter as well?

Thanks. Good topic to educate all of us. My view is both Technical & Fundamental analysis have their inherent plus & minus points. One can't rely on any one of them without using his own mundane wisdom & experience in the market.

As I have learnt from text books, NAV is a fair indicator for Bank & Financial Sector shares, but PER has an application across all types of shares.

At the same time I must say that the behavior of CSE is very different from more developed markets. Ours is so small that one foreign buyer with means can buy the whole market easily. Also he can ruin it the same way. So its subject to shocks by a few parties & is subject to manipulation overtly & covertly. I am referring to HNWI, mostly foreign with a few local counterparts.

2. Wage structure

The higher rate of increase in wages, strong trade unions, wage structure not linked to worker productivity is mentioned in page165. In addition to that we must understand that when ever there will be an announcement of an Election the competing trade unions will do something to show the power losing many man hours.


3. Ban on weedicides and other chemicals is another Critically Risk factor and there are no signs of removal of the same

**************************************************************

In addition to what is meant it should be understood the weather conditions . Drought as well as flood remove man hours from field.

Dividends per share

This is another manipulative tool based on fundamental analysis..

Now if the company has paid as much as 60% as dividends out of its earnings one can expect a massive dividend out of TPL. Yet the past shows the company was very careful in paying dividends. It used to declare dividends in Feb to May.. yet there were years where they did not declare dividends.

Now I took TPL as an example before someone start to write and explain TPL. TPL may go up or may come down. Yet those who read promotional materials and get information to believe of upward movement in any share should dig deep before jumping to the band wagon.

What an interesting post by YK. Thanks mate.

Interpreting data and tweaking to create a bubble is the ideal expectation of Manipulators.

Now what is a bubble.

I can remember that I created a thread for bubbles and now I cant locate that. Anyway these creating of bubbles by manipulators is noted by Jean Paul Rodrigo...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue

He came with a chart later became popular as " phases of bubble "

Each and every share price promoting showed similar phases...

Now before creating the Mania by repeating the shares name in all possible medias one would carefully identify a share based on

1. Less public floating.. lesser the trade-able numbers easier to create upward demand

2. Pattern breaking shares... its like awakening of a sleeping giant

3. Insider information... like declaring of a dividend,

4. A big buyer getting ready to buy ...merge, acquisitions or any other status changing information

One or few of above take place, slowly unnoticeable collection phase starts.

Nice analysis carry on.

I just  completely read this post. I am VERY SAD

Usually  many new comers or naive people , will not know how to identify the difference of  promotional/demotional  and manipulative post vs a real educational one with good intention.

They will usually flock and go after where the  herds are. When they see herds also commenting and supporting they might think it is lovely share.  Then they will buy from the promoters and hold the baby at the top.  

After reading this all I can say is
AT A MUCH NEEDED TIME THIS POST IS BRILLIANTLY  EDUCATIONAL with easy examples and FACTS    THAT MIGHT SIMPLY PROTECT THE SKIN  OF SO MANY .  BUT..... what is happening ! Astounding


Some claim there are no educational posts here.
But when there is , no appreciation for such even and for person who put the time. But 100s silently read. WHY?


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After being an Admin before for several years and have gone though almost
every possible kind of people ( including smart promoters/demoters , cunning people,  double gamers, hidden agenda people , glory seekers  ), I can attest  
things identified in this  post are common gimmicks cunning people often use to hoodwink,   promote , demote  or pump and dump  their shares


Yet, in era where

* people flock for their personal needs / positions  or if something  benefit them  

* where 98% people post something only if they hold the share or want to promote or demote for quick personal ( or group ) gains

* and I can also sell my share . Then buy again and make a promotional post with distorted fact to  sell again in short time.  Then l can dissapear for a month with no posts . NO PROBLEM in this country.

Even  if I buy another  and come back after month to promote it again with post  so many people  will accept me with open arms.

But HOW COME A VALUABLE POST  HAS SO LESS APPRECIATION AND FEEDBACK??????

Specially for someone who continously posts educational stuff for other shake, put lot of time  and  not for personal benefit.  


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Guess , if YK  talk about XXXX rights
or YYY  share
saying how to make killing with it in short term it will gather the interest of many.

I can too right now post a few suggestion for 20-30% short term killings.
Haven't I done such occasionalky before? I can gang up and promote them cunningly too . But I won't

You know why? After the last 6 years I saw how people take advice, prasie, thank, then grow more stable, then get more and more greedy, then forget their begginng, then even go to low levels of attacking .

In society where all above  norms are  accepted and defended  ,   few remaining people like YK who does something valuable for sake of CSE and continuously posts  educational stuff  get only

3 reps ( 1 gave one) and only 3-4  people comment!!!!!!!!

Specially it is  so disturbing to see  when we know as a fact

100s watch silently, read silently
including  all those who are active at other forums ,  
silently taking  ideas from here even ,  are careful due to posts like above , may talk like pundit elsewhere while attacking  the good poster here  too


But why so less comments or appreciation. SERIOUSLY . THIS is not right.




Final Notes :

a) I said what I had to say  ( which is the freakin truth )
  Hope it wake atleast 1 person to protect and encourage  genuine posters   like this. Make the frutitful SEED grown. Not water the  1000s of Weeds which will kill all of us eventually.

B)  Analogy :

    APLA with Rs 40 eps  is sold at Rs 166
    Even if APLA reports eps of 30 this year ( sake of argument)  PE is still  5

  But  KZOO with presently no business or almost empty assets are chased to sky high.
   
 When  a fundamental we talk about run 10-20%   we can get attacked.
When no value ( at the present time shares) run overvalued 30-50% no comments for such.

WHY ?  

 Now magically Compare directly  what is happening to valuable posts/posters
   vs gamer shares and players.

It all the same.


c)  YK and others  now please don't come up with smart comments like, don't worry sls, don't get emotional  etc its the reality .

Yes you know . I know. But many like to stay blind and let the things happen shamelessly.

I did what I had to do , hoping some decent people will understand the reality and ACT. All the genuine guys will lose nothing.  I lose nothing .

But who will lose ... you decide once they go way for the weeds to grow and multiply also in bunches.

The reason I didn't give a rep is somewhat hilarious. When I give a rep, the page reload again and its annoying me. But when we have a like button, it was very simple. Just we can give and nothing happens.
Anyway very good work by our YK. Hats off

Yes, present procedure (new look) discourages members to give reps.

CK wrote:The reason I didn't give a rep is somewhat hilarious. When I give a rep, the page reload again and its annoying me. But when we have a like button, it was very simple. Just we can give and nothing happens.
Anyway very good work by our YK. Hats off

Nice explanation & thanks.

Super thread from Prof. YK. Natural born teacher.

Backstage wrote:Super thread from Prof. YK. Natural born teacher.

Is he a teacher?  What he normally teaches?

Thanks YK. ++reps