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+6
sashimaal
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HAL9000
yellow knife
The Alchemist
10 posters

    Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.

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    The Alchemist
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    Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.  Empty Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.

    Post by The Alchemist Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:22 am

    The Central Bank 30 Year Bond Issue. - By Ajwad Shariz.

    I have 2 questions for the individuals who say "Bond Scam, Bond Scam".

    Q1: Explain to me where is the scam in the bond issue.

    Q2: Who stole the money?

    Now come the pundits, be reminded 145 Members and Ministers of
    our parliament under UPFA has not passed the A' levels, and of that 95
    so called pundits who ran our country for 10 years do not have O'
    Levels. These are the parliamentarians crying "scam, scam, scam. Let
    me quote some of them.

    Bandula Gunewardene: This is the Minister under UPFA who said that
    Rs. 2500.00 a month is enough for a family of four to live comfortably in
    Sri Lanka (Where did he come up with this figure??). He has said the
    loss in the 30 year bond issue Rs.50 billion. How did he come up with
    this figure, only God knows. The guy who can't calculate the stipend for
    a family of 4 to live in Sri Lanka, is now is talking about bonds and in
    billions. Even a Tri-Shaw driver will tell you how much it costs a family
    of 4 for a month.

    Wimal Weerawansa: I don’t have to write to you about his and his
    wife's fraud, lies and deserting the JVP to rob the public with the UPFA.
    He says the loss is 30 Billion. Well these guys seem to pluck these
    figures from air… Airheads do it…

    Nivard Cabraal: The most corrupt Governor that Central Bank ever had.
    This shameless human being (if you can call him one), manipulated EPF
    funds to fatten the purses of the stock market manipulators. While we
    are on the issue of bonds, this is the ignorant Governor who invested
    billions in Greek Bonds knowing that Greece was going bankrupt.
    Yesterday Greece defaulted on the interest payable to IMF on monies
    borrowed. What about the principal and interest owed to Sri Lanka?
    Because of the buffoon Nivard Cabraal we may not see the colour of it.
    These are some of the public lunatics that I have quoted. The actual
    picture of the 30 year bond that was issued on the 27th of February,
    2015. Why did this bond issue run into controversy, The one and only
    reason is because the bid was to be 1 billion, but the bids were raised
    and accepted to 10 billion. So what happens when the bids are raised?
    the average returns was also driven up because of the excess uptake
    from 1 billion to 10 billion.

    It is understandable if the public outcry is for 2 reasons.

    1) The high increase in the issue (10Bill), which also will give a higher
    interest rate. 2) The largest beneficiary of the issue was a company
    closely connected to the sitting Governor. Creating a conflict of
    interest. Sri Lanka doesn’t have any rules on who you should award an
    issue or for that matter any tender.

    Then came the uneducated politicians, and the ignorant economist on
    all media, so called journalists jumped on board to calculate the loss.
    Unfortunately the contributions published do not take into account 3
    most critical aspects required to calculate the exact loss.

    1). You need to compute the value so that you are in the present. You
    can't add present monies to future monies, this is a "no no" when you
    compute time value money. So what is Computing time value money?
    If a person loses Rs.1000.00 today and the interest rate was 10.4%, it is
    the same as losing Rs.2000.00 in 7 years, or Rs.4000 in 14 years (This is
    called the rule of 72. If you take 72 and divide by the rate of interest, in
    this case 10.4, it will give you the time it takes to double the money,
    through compounding interest). Therefore losing Rs.1000 today and
    losing Rs.4000.00 in 14 years, is not the same as losing Rs. 5000.00
    (1000+4000) today, but it is the same as losing 2000.00 today. The
    time-value of money is a basic and core principle of financial
    calculations, and the newspaper articles and the politicians HAVE
    IGNORED IT, I am sure they don’t know it. The result has been the
    erroneous calculations that adds up money due in 20 and 30 years with
    money due in the present year, without discounting FUTURE payments
    to the present value. THE RESULT IS INCORRECT CALCULATIONS THAT
    HUGELY EXAGGERATE THE LOSS.

    2) Inaccurate Stipulation of the base rate: All calculations of loss are
    based on estimating the "extra interest" that was paid for the 30 year
    bond.
    Various rates are used by all and sundry pundits in the media. Some of
    them well under 10%. Well, such speculations are not necessary as the
    actual bids are known. Public Debt Department (PDD) document shows
    that the market was not offering the low rates to the bank. If the bids
    were not prorated The 1 billion mark would have meant accepting
    1,308 billion (including 0.5 bill from EPF) THE AVERAGE WEIGHTED
    REURN WOULD BE 10.465%. The leaks of the COPE report says the PDD
    decided to take bids up to 2,608 billion. This recommendation does not
    ring an alarm, because 2.358 billion of this total will come from
    government controlled entities - Rs. 1.5 billion from EPF and the rest
    from Government banks, and NONE from Perpetual Treasuries, which
    has been identified as the dubious bidder where the governor has a
    conflict of interest. Even though the PDD recommended more than
    double the uptake of what was announced (which is not a good
    practice) it has been done before on short term issues when Nivard
    Cabraal was the governor. So the bottom line is that the weighted
    return recommended by the PDD from the 2.6 billion uptake was
    10.724%. SO THIS IS THE ACTUAL BASE RATE RECOMMENDED FOR THE
    ISSUE BY THE PDD. Which takes all the guesswork. So far no one has
    used this information therefore they have not been able to set the
    appropriate base rate of 10.724%. The governor has absolutely no
    input into this. The PDD does not admit him into their meetings while
    discussing bids.

    3) so called "LOSS" in deviating from the initial PDD recommendation…
    The PDD said ok to issue 2.608 billion at the rate of 10.724. If the
    governor had issued this amount, there would be no scam talk, also if
    he did not give Perpetual securities. Well what the governor did was
    increased the bid to 10 billion. This final 10 billion bid came at the rate
    of 11.727%. So the loss calculation will be between this rate and the
    rate for 2.608 billion. The excess interest rate paid by the increased
    uptake is 1% (to be exact 1.003%).

    Lets calculate the loss. The present value of the loss for over 30 years,
    in taking 10.058 billion at this higher rate rather than the lower base
    rate is equal 0.9 billion (896,430,491 to be precise) THIS IS THE LOSS (if
    you can call it a loss, I don’t)
    However it is only a fraction of the loss of 8.7 billion erroneously
    calculated on the 30 year bond by the ex governor the goat Nivard
    Cabraal. Of the 7.8 billion difference between Cabraals calculation and
    the actual, Rs. 5.7 billion comes from computational error and 2.1
    billion from the speculated base rate.

    In closing let me tell you this. The 10 billion in bonds issued are bought
    by the EPF and the government banks. So the difference in the rate
    from 10.724 to 11.727 an increase of 1 percent is also beneficial to the
    EPF and the banks which will get a higher rate of interest. I ask the
    dumb politicians who are not O'level qualified this question. If Central
    Bank is owned by the government, the Central Bank is the trustee for
    the EPF, the bank of Ceylon, Peoples Bank and the NSB is owned by the
    government. Who benefits by the increased rate?? So where is the loss
    as the money is channeled back to the government.

    Talking of losses, take the Hambantota harbour, Mattala airport, Mihin
    Air, and all the commissions paid for the building of highways….can you
    even compare the loss…Oh and the US$ 10 billion which was found in
    Dubai…..compares nothing to the 30 year bond..
    Please be kind enough to educate the rest.

    Compiled and written from some information from Verite Research.
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    Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.  Empty Re: Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.

    Post by yellow knife Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:56 am

    Conclusion

    1. if an uneducated guy rob thats bad and if educated guy do white collar crime thats good...

    2. Under money laundering who ever hide his asset anywhere , the nation that own it can claim it.. but no such claiming happened so far...
    HAL9000
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    Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.  Empty Re: Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.

    Post by HAL9000 Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:57 am

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/130714/news/cpcs-hedging-blunder-finally-the-people-pay-52925.html

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/120506/News/nws_01.html

    The truth is during the previous Deshapremi regime we lost massive amounts in all sorts of economic activities,

    -Bond Market - Greek and other junk bonds
    - Stock market - EPF horrible investment stratergy and related deales which we discussed in other threads
    -Derivative market - Hedging deals that we lost billions

    Interesting thing is we never had COPE reports or any debates , media discusions ,about accountability or responsibility of those scams. Who was responsible ?, Who was the finance minister during that period ?



    What about substandard petrol issue, Did the then minister take the responsibility ?


    Last edited by HAL9000 on Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
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    Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.  Empty Re: Bond Scam ? Another Perspective.

    Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:12 pm

    Thanks Al. Very Happy
    (This should have been titled " නොදන්නා දේ දන්නාබව පෙන්වන්නට සමාජ වෙබ් අඩවිවල කතා දාන බයියන්ගේ දැනුම වැඩිකරගැණීම් පිණිසයි ! ")


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    Post by Rajapaksap Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:08 pm

    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Thanks Al. Very Happy
    (This should have been titled " නොදන්නා දේ දන්නාබව පෙන්වන්නට සමාජ වෙබ් අඩවිවල කතා දාන බයියන්ගේ දැනුම වැඩිකරගැණීම් පිණිසයි ! ")


    Api paksgrahi wenna hoda nehe. weradi weda UNP.UPFA,JVP, TNA, Helaurumaya kawru kalath wereddak nam weradiya kiyanna idripath viya yuthuya. Baiyya toyya wadayak mokataada?
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    Post by sashimaal Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:40 pm

    Rajapaksalata oya tika eda therune neththe ei ? I don't know why !


    Rajapaksap wrote:
    කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Thanks Al. Very Happy
    (This should have been titled " නොදන්නා දේ දන්නාබව පෙන්වන්නට සමාජ වෙබ් අඩවිවල කතා දාන බයියන්ගේ දැනුම වැඩිකරගැණීම් පිණිසයි ! ")


    Api paksgrahi wenna hoda nehe. weradi weda UNP.UPFA,JVP, TNA, Helaurumaya kawru kalath wereddak nam weradiya kiyanna idripath viya yuthuya. Baiyya toyya wadayak mokataada?
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    Post by StopLoss Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:36 pm

    I am no fan of the previous regime, but a couple of things about this article worry me.

    First, if all was indeed above board and this article is completely factual, why are we hearing this now from Mr Shariz and not from Arjuna Mahendran, RW, RK or Dr Harsha? Surely RW could have had the matter investigated by industy experts and come up with a similar rejoinder?

    Next, I Googled 'Ajwad Shariz' and got this linkedin profile,

    https://www.linkedin.com/pub/ajwad-shariz/57/94a/238

    The gentleman turns out to be a US based banker of Sri Lankan origin and an old Royalist, who played for CH&FC in '86, which would place him at about the same batch as Dr. H at Royal!

    Now this could all be pure coincidence of course, but since he's come up with a reply to opposition claims that no one from government has come up with so far, maybe he can take over from AM?

    After all RW, RK, AM and Dr Harsha are all familier with their school motto, Disce aut Discede!

    lol!
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    Post by First Guy Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:28 pm

    People should read the content and understand. As investors, members here should have adequate knowledge to understand this event, I assume, rather than listen and accept what some one else with less knowledge says.

    Pulling political parties, schools and name calling is unacceptable although it has been made political by politicians.
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    Post by Rajapaksap Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:17 pm

    HAL9000 wrote:http://www.sundaytimes.lk/130714/news/cpcs-hedging-blunder-finally-the-people-pay-52925.html

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/120506/News/nws_01.html

    The truth is during the previous Deshapremi regime we lost massive amounts in all sorts of economic activities,

    -Bond Market - Greek and other junk bonds
    - Stock market - EPF horrible investment stratergy and related deales which we discussed in other threads
    -Derivative market - Hedging deals that we lost billions

    Interesting thing is we never had COPE reports or any debates , media discusions ,about accountability or responsibility of those scams. Who was responsible ?, Who was the finance minister during that period ?



    What about substandard petrol issue, Did the then minister take the responsibility ?


    Mewa BABALATA therunath nehe wage katha karanawa. Hebei wahaganna Uparima uthsaha karanawa.Kiyanne BOND wala mukuth une nehe kiyala.hebei warana gannawa. A eye?
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    Post by StopLoss Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:20 am

    First Guy wrote:People should read the content and understand. As investors, members here should have adequate knowledge to understand this event, I assume, rather than listen and accept what some one else with less knowledge says.

    Pulling political parties, schools and name calling is unacceptable although it has been made political by politicians.

    FG, you're right about the school issue, and I do apologise for bringing it up, though the purpose was to point out that the gentleman concerned was not an unbiased independant expert but rather someone with school and possibly personal ties to the people involved in the bond issue.

    The article itself was convincingly written, and even with my self-taught and very limited knowledge of bonds, it made a reasonable argument, once one had got past the first six paragraphs of abuse and name-calling.

    The reason I dug deeper into the background of the writer was that I was taught that a professional thesis should be devoid of emotion, and in this case the argument seemed definitely tainted by emotion.

    What worries me more is that I don't think RW has been very convincing in his defence of the bond issue, and if the matter were as simple as the writer of the article makes it out to be, then why have we got to the point of going into an election with a big question mark hanging over the integrity of the people who have been running the economy over the past six months?

    Most voters would not have a clue as to the technicalities involved, but they still have a vote, and 'unuth ekai, munuth ekai' will not give RW the resounding win he so desperately needs.

    After all a weak UNP-led coalition with MR as the opposition leader might be as bad as having MR back in power! Evil or Very Mad


    Last edited by StopLoss on Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:35 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Typo)
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    Post by Leon Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:07 am

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/150705/business-times/cb-governor-visited-public-debt-dept-on-two-occasions-cope-report-says-155737.html
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    Post by StopLoss Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:33 am

    Leon wrote:http://www.sundaytimes.lk/150705/business-times/cb-governor-visited-public-debt-dept-on-two-occasions-cope-report-says-155737.html

    Thanks Leon.
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    Post by rainmaker Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:31 pm


    The bond in question is the 12.50% coupon 30 year bond that expires on 1 March 2045.

    The face-value of the bond is 100 rupees

    The current price of the bond is 100 rupees which indicates a yield of 12.50% - this is the same yield that was achieved at the bond auction. Nobody appears to touch this bond at any other price which kills any opportunity for profit Razz

      Current date/time is Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:40 am