Q4 2018 - NPAT 4.7bn (-5% YoY)
Q1 2019 - NPAT 2.0bn (-57% YoY)
YoY NPAT decline was due to the aggressive provisioning for bad loan requirements under new laws where HNB had to provide close to 5bn provision each during the last two quarters.
The stock technically slipped to oversold territory since early May and remains within oversold region until the 2nd week of July. However a technical recovery can be seen since the beginning of current week. The stock price recovered from a low of 133/- to 145/- as at close on Friday. This is largely due to increased market momentum @ CSE in general and a renewed interest on the heavily beaten down sector due to possible interest rate cuts.
On technical grounds HNB stock's RSI has improved to 72 shifting from over-sold region to lower limits of over-bought region within a week. Close to 700k volume changed hand in the week.
We can expect the Q2 results of the bank to be very similar with that of Q1 where >50% drop in PAT YoY with similar huge lending provision. However if the market positivism carries to next week as well then we could expect the stock price to enter 152-155 range in the short term.
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