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VFIN - where the journey leads it?

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VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by smallville on Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:39 pm

Vallibel Finance PLC has become one of the fastest growing financial institutes in Sri Lanka under the vision of business tycoon Dhammika Perera. Formerly known as Rupee Finance, VFIN’s core business functions include FDs, Leasing, Hire Purchases, Micro Finance & personal loans.

VFIN managed to show  55% growth in December quarter EPS of Rs. 2.54/- compared to the same quarter in 2013. Now it’s just a matter of time we witness annualized EPS hitting Rs.10/- plus.

Looking at how they grew their network, the last 4 months show a promising progress - They have opened 3 branches in Rajagiriya, Anuradhapura and Kegalle and partnered with DIMO to promote TATA vehicles. With this deal, attractive leasing options for TATA Commercial and Passenger vehicles wil be offered by VFIN to its customers.

At an NAV of 33.81, VFIN is trading at PBV x 1.49. The current share price around Rs. 50/- is a bargain price for the big shots to enter and collect.  May be that’s the reason for one of the Director’s to be on the buying side for some time.
Therefore, on a fair value basis, a financial entity should trade at least at PBV x 2.0. This makes VFIN one of the attarctive counters available for medium term. The valuation based on PBV sees Rs. 67/-. But its not a guarantee that VFIN reaches this amount in one go.

On a tech note, VFIN currently engages in a channel where 53 sees a channel top and 47 sees a bottom. Above 47, it has support. So of this can break 53 in near term, we can see this making new highs. If not a correction towads 44-47 can also be expected.


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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by First Guy on Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:23 pm

VFIN had enormous collection at 46/- levels. Even when the market dipped it didn't fall below 45/- so unlikely that it will go to that level again. Last few days it has shown a boost and broke 50/-

SLS had been talking about the share when it was in the 30s or before btw.

Financial institutes don't necessarily have to trade at 2x book value. It depends on many factors including projected ROE, NPL etc.,. In the past acquisitions were made around 1.5x-2.0x for even weak companies. COCR is trading above 3x due to its high growth and ROE.

2x is a reasonable for me personally. IF VFIN posts 10/- for this year, even with 1.5x we can expect it to trade at (33.8+10-2)*1.5 = 63/- (I assumed a 2/- dividend) by end of this year. That's a 37% gain from the 46/- levels where collection was going on and 26% from current price.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by First Guy on Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:43 pm

When we consider VFIN, it's worth to talk about LFIN too. Similar multiples.

Big brother SAMP is another to look at too.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by serene on Sat Apr 25, 2015 3:02 pm

Thanks small and FG.
Agrred a share with slow and steady progress.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Ukboy on Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:42 pm

Yes this is something I wanted to collect but couldnt do that much for the price I wanted. There was a clear collector for it. As mentioned here whenever the price dipped he was there to grab it.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by pathfinder on Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:14 pm

Thanks Small and FG,I also thought to post a thread on VFIN in the evening,you saved my time Very Happy

54 seems to be the immediate resistance,once broken 66 will be the next.
Nice collection happened around 47 and a dividend is due. So it may go to 54 in next few days without much difficulty.
All indicators supporting this target Very Happy
Happy trading. Smile
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by HUNTER on Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:45 am

Thanks Small, FG, Path and others.

It seems some party has been collecting this and becoming hot. If they continue doing it, they may push to ~65 and let it drop ~55.

Here is my view in a chart.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by sashimaal on Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:21 am

Thanks Hunter for the detailed explanation , +


HUNTER wrote:Thanks Small, FG, Path and others.

It seems some party has been collecting this and becoming hot. If they continue doing it, they may push to ~65 and let it drop ~55.

Here is my view in a chart.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by serene on Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:35 am

Thanks Hunter

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:18 am

The best period for VFIN is yet to come. The results of newly opened branches will have a positive impact on the financials and this may take a few quarters.

LFIN declares 25% of profits as dividends and VFIN also would do the same but might take a few quarters due to expansion.

If you patiently hold this then you are a winner.


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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Thu May 28, 2015 9:18 am

What a result by VFIN.

Annual EPS for 31/03/2015 is Rs. 8.97.

Quarterly EPS fo 31/03/2015 is Rs. 2.9 (11.55/4)

YOY profit growth 22.7%


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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu May 28, 2015 11:05 am

Why is it dipping though? :S
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Thu May 28, 2015 11:06 am

As expected. An EPS of 8-9 was predictable... Well done VFIN

cheers
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu May 28, 2015 11:08 am

Agreed. Sadly that one bad quarter stopped them from achieving 10 EPS. Anyway, slow and steady wins the race.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Thu May 28, 2015 11:15 am

Nice to see a drop in impairment charges
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu May 28, 2015 11:26 am

Likely to hit the three figure mark like most others anytime soon ?  Very Happy
(Hold none in my Pf right now).
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu May 28, 2015 12:48 pm

Hopefully Smile. It has only 41M shares and one of the lowest PE ratios in the sector. Personally, i see it as a growth stock for the future.

Might take another quarter or two to hit the three figure mark unless there is a massive bull-run due to election/results.

(I hold a considerable amount of the said stock).
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by First Guy on Fri May 29, 2015 7:36 am

It will probably take a break here. Dividend was just as expected (realistically) so not much movement in price although there were small lots being sold.

What would your choice be between PARQ and VFIN? Different industry, same price range and both seem strong.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Nuinth on Fri May 29, 2015 7:46 am

First Guy wrote:

What would your choice be between PARQ and VFIN? Different industry, same price range and both seem strong.

PARQ. As it is quick runner. VFIN is slow runner. But in long run both are winner ... cheers

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by smallville on Fri May 29, 2015 9:02 am

PARQ is good if it comes down ard 58-60 in month end sales..

VFIN is stagnant after a good report but 2 rupees divi.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Fri May 29, 2015 11:05 am

Month end credit clearance. People who bought on credit forced to sell. That's why VFIN and PARQ are slow. Both reported excellent results.

VFIN will be able to report over 3/= EPS from next quarter. This is surely worth over 80/= and has the lowest PE in the sector along with LFIN.

Nothing to worry. It will pick up very soon. Both would give good returns in the medium run.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri May 29, 2015 11:43 am

PARQ vs VFIN.

Two totally different models. VFIN can virtually dispense more loans in the coming quarters and earn hefty cash from wide interest margins.

I expect rapid growth for the finance sector with more dispensible income, low interest rates, demnd for motor vehicles and consumer durables.

PARQ is related to the construction segment of the economy. VFIN is linked to many segments of the economy bring in business.

For me VFIN will hit a billion rupee's plus profits in next 18-24 months if things remain stable.

Cheers!
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Fri May 29, 2015 11:52 am

If VFIN hits Rs. 1 billion mark then the EPS would be Rs. 25.

I think this might take 3 to 4 years if the economy does well.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Fri May 29, 2015 11:55 am

You said it well Rapaport.
(Enticing me to look at Finance companies hitherto shun with serious interest).  scratch
Rapaport wrote:PARQ vs VFIN.

Two totally different models. VFIN can virtually dispense more loans in the coming quarters and earn hefty cash from wide interest margins.

I expect rapid growth for the finance sector with more dispensible income, low interest rates, demnd for motor vehicles and consumer durables.

PARQ is related to the construction segment of the economy. VFIN is linked to many segments of the economy bring in business.

For me VFIN will hit a billion rupee's plus profits in next 18-24 months if things remain stable.

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කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:25 pm

Some people selling VFIN at very cheap prices. VFIN would report an EPS of over 12/= for the financial year 2015/16.

Dividend pending and XD is on 5 June.

VFIN would appreciate significantly if you hold it for a few quarters. They have opened many new branches recently and each quarter they will be able to show better performance.

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