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VFIN - where the journey leads it?

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Post by Leon on Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:43 pm

GroundedKestrel wrote:Thank you Leon but what does it mean when you say the share is reaching its market capitalisation limit?

Where did you see that?? A limit??
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:56 pm

First Guy wrote:Thanks Leon.

Can expect decent growth from VFIN by not anything magical. VFIN already is almost near the capitalization limit like SAMP. Rating may be already reflecting that. Could it go for a rights?
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Post by Leon on Wed Aug 05, 2015 4:23 pm

GroundedKestrel wrote:
First Guy wrote:Thanks Leon.

Can expect decent growth from VFIN by not anything magical. VFIN already is almost near the capitalization limit like SAMP. Rating may be already reflecting that. Could it go for a rights?

That of course a regulatory requirement. I can't explain in detail atm.Want to have a good look.
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Post by pathfinder on Wed Aug 05, 2015 5:49 pm

pathfinder wrote:
First Guy wrote:

I didn't mean the stocks as weak. I meant those 'weak' holders of the stock. As I mentioned in the SDB thread as I remember, there are some who get into a speeding bus, panic and sell when it stops shortly afterwards. I find these to be different to long term investors and technical traders but those who just try to join the bandwagon. They are capable of taking a stock high and bring it low as well.

Correction happens when stocks move from shaky weak hands to stronger hands.At the moment VFIN and PARQ are showing real time examples. Wink

After 6wks Cool
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Post by First Guy on Wed Aug 05, 2015 8:43 pm

GK - it's a regulatory requirement. it's not really a limit rather a minimum requirement that should be maintained. VFIN might be required to raise more capital if it gets too close, I think. So growth will not be possible as much as one that has comfortable levels (relatively)
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Post by Leon on Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:55 am

First Guy wrote:GK - it's a regulatory requirement. it's not really a limit rather a minimum requirement that should be maintained. VFIN might be required to raise more capital if it gets too close, I think. So growth will not be possible as much as one that has comfortable levels (relatively)

Your rough assumption FG??
Going for a right??
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Post by First Guy on Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:00 am

Leon wrote:
First Guy wrote:GK - it's a regulatory requirement. it's not really a limit rather a minimum requirement that should be maintained. VFIN might be required to raise more capital if it gets too close, I think. So growth will not be possible as much as one that has comfortable levels (relatively)

Your rough assumption FG??
Going for a right??

DP companies haven't gone for many rights, have they? Both SAMP and VFIN are near the minimum requirement. SAMP was recently downgraded. It would affect it when going for a debt issue.

As for capital, rights is one option but also it can make some bumper profits and retain it. SAMP managed by issuing scrip dividends partly.

Other options are, merger? I don't think VFIN will go for PP.

But I think they will somehow manage at the moment but it will prevent them from making maximum use of growth opportunities.
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Post by Leon on Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:42 am

First Guy wrote:
Leon wrote:
First Guy wrote:GK - it's a regulatory requirement. it's not really a limit rather a minimum requirement that should be maintained. VFIN might be required to raise more capital if it gets too close, I think. So growth will not be possible as much as one that has comfortable levels (relatively)

Your rough assumption FG??
Going for a right??

DP companies haven't gone for many rights, have they? Both SAMP and VFIN are near the minimum requirement. SAMP was recently downgraded. It would affect it when going for a debt issue.

As for capital, rights is one option but also it can make some bumper profits and retain it. SAMP managed by issuing scrip dividends partly.

Other options are, merger? I don't think VFIN will go for PP.

But I think they will somehow manage at the moment but it will prevent them from making maximum use of growth opportunities.

We got to wait & see what strategies they might use to overcome this situation.
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:24 am

FG - Thank you for clarifying. You mean that there is a minimum level of liquidity needed as per regulations and VFIN and SAMP are losing that because of institutional and company investors buying their their shares? Hence they need to subdivide or issue rights to maintain liquidity as per the minimum requirement?
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Post by First Guy on Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:13 pm

GroundedKestrel wrote:FG - Thank you for clarifying. You mean that there is a minimum level of liquidity needed as per regulations and VFIN and SAMP are losing that because of institutional and company investors buying their their shares? Hence they need to subdivide or issue rights to maintain liquidity as per the minimum requirement?

This has nothing to do with shareholding. It's about the capital. It's basically the of equity it has to maintain as a percentage of all its loans and leases given. Giving out more new loans will reduce this ratio. So will giving out dividends. Making more profits and raising more capital will increase it. So it cannot give much new loans compared to the profits it make. If it is grow that way, it needs some fresh capital.

Sub division of shares does not affect the value of the share.

(Correct me if I am wrong)
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:39 pm

Ohhhhh. I get it now Very Happy

Thank you so much FG!
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Post by Future123 on Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:22 pm

I didn't make any comments for some time since there were too much talks about politics and some members bombard a few. All we need is a good growing market and all of us make some money without losing our hard earned investment. We don't want Super gain taxes and any sentiments that would kill the market.

My thoughts about VFIN is that it's a growing company and will continue to grow. Once they grow we can expect very good dividends like LFIN. They recently opened about 5 new branches we could see the results of those in coming quarters. I think Rajagirya branch is doing very well.

I have been thinking about this capital adequacy for a sometime and in my opinion they would go for a private placement at the right time and at the right price. Still VFIN is trading cheap considering their earning potential. The price will move up if they report PAT of 125 million or more which would result an EPS of Rs. 3.

Bansei Group in the Director Board of VFIN but they don't hold any shares. It's likely that a private placement to Bansei Group may happen when VFIN reaches say 100/= in 6 months to 1 year. Bansei Group is one of the top shareholders at PABC.

VFIN has 41 million shares issued and they might issue say 10 million to Bansei Group. This would result in a capital infusion of Rs. 1 billion. This certainly advantageous to VFIN rather going for rights at a lower price. This doesn't cost any thing to VFIN immediately but there will be earnings dilution which will be off set by higher profits due to capital infusion. This would also increase the NAV.

I hope June quarter results will be good for VFIN. Remember the MD bought lots of shares and they might know the future plans in advance than us. I hope the future is bright with VFIN.

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Post by First Guy on Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:02 am

VFIN reported an EPS of 2.31
Last quarter = 2.89
Last June quarter = 1.59

Over the last few quarters, VFIN has not actually "grown" considerably while the profit increases were mainly because of low impairment charges.

But still the results make this share a good one in the long term. Looks like some new loans have been given in the quarter and benefit can be seen in future periods.

ROE is 25% 2x BV seems fair (current price).

If it can continue that and add 7/- EPS for remaining 3 quarters for the year, BV = 44/-; 2x = 85/-+
If market gives it 1.5x it would end up at 65/-

VFIN - where the journey leads it? - Page 4 Image_28
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Post by First Guy on Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:04 am

On the capital ratios, looks like VFIN has improved it with the profits.
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Post by GroundedKestrel on Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:56 am

Thanks a lot for your analysis FG. I have a strong feeling that VFIN should be able to claim double digits in terms of EPS. Even last year, it narrowly missed this target.

Also, i expected the MD's holdings to be higher though. Hmmm are the shares purchased via his wife only mentioned in the CSE but not added to the quarterly report?
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Post by Future123 on Sun Aug 09, 2015 12:52 am

Thanks FG for useful information.

GK, the MD has increased his stake from 620,000 shares to 751,000 shares within 3 months from March to June 2015.

VFIN is a growing company and the first quarter performance has improved a lot compared to previous years 1st quarters. Normally VFIN perform bit lower in the first quarter and picks up in the final 2 quarters. I'm quite confident that VFIN will report double digit EPS in 2015/16.

VFIN has much better NAV and PE than COCR and BLI.
1) NAV of BLI is 19/= and trading at Rs.82. Therefore, PBV is 4.3 times.
2) NAV of COCR is Rs. 20 and trading at 69/=. PBV is 3.45 times.

VFIN deserves to be trading at 2.5 times of NAV due to growth potential and lower PE in the finance sector. If so it must be around Rs. 37*2.5 = 92/=

Further, at the moment the personnel and other operating expenses have gone up by nearly 36% as a result of newly opened branches. The results of newly opened branches would be significant in the coming quarters.

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Post by First Guy on Sun Aug 09, 2015 7:24 am

Future, while VFIN is doing well, let's not get carried away and be realistic. I feel the numbers I gave are realistic.

http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t5558p15-finance-companies-snapshot#44279

See the above chart? As per March results, it suggests almost all of them were valued fairly in terms of ROE and P/B. Relatively, VFIN could have been closer to 2x which is the case now. If VFIN continues to return the same ROE of ~25%, it should keep trading at 2x which is the basis of my numbers. I'll post the ROE trend soon. Looking at the net interest income, it looks flat during last 4 quarters whereas COCR has nicely increased. COCR's ROE has declined to 39.7% last quarter but still impressive. That's why it's trading higher.
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Post by Future123 on Fri Aug 14, 2015 11:47 am

Price coming down due to one seller selling continuously.

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Post by GroundedKestrel on Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:48 pm

Leon, FG and Future

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/8371439979099_.pdf

MD started buying again. This time at Rs.69.80
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Post by Future123 on Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:07 pm

Thanks GK. The boss has better idea of his company than anyone else. I have a gut feeling that we'll be hearing some news relevant to expansion / capital infusion/ international funding for SME loans in the near future to take VFIN to the next level.

My personal view is that if you hold VFIN for 2 years it can give you a solid return. VFIN is undervalued when compareed to BLI or COCR.

VFIN has moved slowly from Rs.28 to Rs. 68 within a year without making much noise. Still a long way to go. Hold tightly with patience.




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Post by GroundedKestrel on Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:51 pm

Yes, MD's actions are a good indicator of the company's health. Specially since this guy never got it handed on a platter. Now someone like Nimal P would get a few million shares just like that at an IPO probably without paying even.

JR had only 19,000 shares in 2010.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/949_1281441695993.pdf

The man puts his hard earned cash into it and over 5 years bought it upto 730k and counting.

As they say, "ohoma yamu, ohoma yamu!".
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Post by Future123 on Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:53 am

Expansion continues. Another new branch opened in Piliyandala. Date of announcement 25 August 2015.

http://www.vallibelfinance.com/?p=1264

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Post by GroundedKestrel on Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:14 am

Great Smile. Do you know what the total is now? I lost count.
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Post by Future123 on Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:33 am

Now it's 25 with newly opened Piliyandala branch.

http://www.vallibelfinance.com/?page_id=251

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Post by GroundedKestrel on Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:55 am

Thank you future. Hmmm everything is concentrated to the West. About time to expand to the North and the East.

I remember someone saying that LFIN (51?) and CDB (70?) both having a lot of branches opened throughout the island. VFIN WILL either way have to expand to atleast 50 branches before the big dosh starts rolling in.



Correction* LFIN has 88 branches!!! just counted
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