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VFIN - where the journey leads it?

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:32 pm

Backstage wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/1121447741108_.pdf

Rangamuwa and DP both buying.

Thought I will try beat Future to the post. Razz

Was little busy today and only checked what has happened in the market just now. Thanks Backstage for taking the lead.

K.D.A Perera is the brother of DP and one of the top share holders of VFIN and a Director. He too purchased a big quantity along with MD.

VFIN is one of the best stocks in the medium term irrespective of the budget outcome. If you hold this for 1 to 2 years sure you are a winner.

Vallibel will be extending its presence to Wattala, Balangoda, Dambulla and Hikkaduwa in the near future - See more at: http://www.ft.lk/article/496873/Vallibel-Finance-expands-reach-to-Piliyandala-and-Warakapola#sthash.B7jd8HWQ.dpuf

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Backstage on Tue Nov 17, 2015 10:02 pm

Wc, was just teasing you about the VFIN enthusiasm.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:19 pm

VFIN - what a performance Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

Annualized EPS - Rs. 13.36 (Based on quarterly results)

Annualized EPS - Rs. 11.20 (Based on 9 months results)

Quarterly Profit after tax improved by 32%

http://cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/949_1453893327114.pdf

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by First Guy on Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:12 am

Good performance from VFIN.

5.4% increase in net interest Q/Q
Rise in other operating income
Lower impairments
Higher taxes paid due to higher profits reported
Quarter ROE above 30%
Highest profit before impairments

TTM EPS = 11.29/-, P/E = 5.6x, P/BV 1.5x



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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:02 pm

Brilliant results but unfortunately not reflected in the share price

The whole market is dragging such shares down. There is actually enough sellers coming in below 65 to support the buying and thats not a good sign.

Rising interest rates, contracting credit, reduced vehicle imports, higher taxes, increasing inflation, poor market sentiment, possible increase in loan impairments can affect finance sector shares and i expect their earning to reduce more than 20% from current levels in the coming year, reducing appeal to buy these shares!

Cheers!
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:41 pm

Thanks FG & Rap for your analysis.

True but, knowing the guys who manage our banking sector (they never take risks as their counterparts take in the West and know how to pass the costs to the customer), they would still show results by transferring part of the costs to the public. We all know how they smooth sailed unaffected by the past worldwide economic issues.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by tharindufit on Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:51 pm

I see there's two people in the forum, Positive guys about immediate future of CSE and negative guys about future of CSE. I'm on positive side. People like @Rapaport always on negative side. But that's good to add balance! :-) We usually see the minority liking gets executed in last months. It seems like even good financial shares doesn't seem to have a run in near future!

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:32 pm

tharindufit wrote:I see there's two people in the forum, Positive guys about immediate future of CSE and negative guys about future of CSE. I'm on positive side. People like @Rapaport always on negative side. But that's good to add balance! :-) We usually see the minority liking gets executed in last months. It seems like even good financial shares doesn't seem to have a run in near future!

This is perhaps the first time i have been negative for 3 months in a row. You need to read my previous posts between 2014- early 2015....

I do not write much but i make it a point to be logical and give valid reasons.

The reasons I point out are voiced out by many outside the forum. Markets move before the economy performs/under performs... Investors always look ahead and buy stocks. The current earnings are past performance which we see now...

Yes i am negative for now. I am invested 25% in stocks and 75% Gilt funds and short term FDs

Cheers!
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:16 pm

Rapaport wrote:Brilliant results but unfortunately not reflected in the share price

The whole market is dragging such shares down. There is actually enough sellers coming in below 65 to support the buying and thats not a good sign.

Rising interest rates, contracting credit, reduced vehicle imports, higher taxes, increasing inflation, poor market sentiment, possible increase in loan impairments can affect finance sector shares and i expect their earning to reduce more than 20% from current levels in the coming year, reducing appeal to buy these shares!

Cheers!

VFIN is expanding to rural areas and I could see many positives from this. They are moving away from traditional leasing and concentrating on micro finance and grameen loans which brings highest returns. BLI is the best example for this.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:47 pm

But will they have business in a high interest rate and high inflation environment from the rural area's??

Perhaps you should take a sample of 10 banking/Finance shares and go through their 10 year earning history (annual reports). Compare the 10 year profits with the previous balance of Payments crisis of 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 and will show you the way EPS dropped despite growth in top line for some companies.

We are facing a similar situation this time as well.....

Cheers!
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by First Guy on Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:18 am

VFIN has too much cost compared to income. Maybe new branches are contributing to that. It can make it work from there. But risk that Rapa mentioned is there too.

LFIN is at a much mature level. 4.8x P/E is a bit low, don't you think?
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by malanp on Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:26 am

Rapaport predicted LFIN can be collected at 80.. 
what happened to that prediction.???

now LFIN is 110 and no sign of coming down to 100 level...

What I feel is always people predict the future for their own sake, no corelation to the reality..

People who use a scientific approch are different.. so the best thing is not to predict the future share prices,, more one predict more you show your nudity..

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:58 am

Malanp

I never mentioned a time frame. Wait till result season is over and lets see...

Cheers.
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:37 am

Over cautious is good but it leads to loss of opportunities.

Is there any business in the world which does not have any risk???????

Best option for non risk takers is to go for treasury bills and FDs.


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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:35 am

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:23 pm


This Yahapal aanduva is going to kill the country. This is going to increase the inflation further. The companies will pass the cost increase to consumers and poor citizens will suffer more. Is this the change that everyone expected Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:44 pm

Just for fun

Mervyn criticises leasing firms lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8qGyS2Qj2w
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:46 pm

Future 123

This is what i have been telling for weeks now! CBSL is breaking many records we really do not want to hear about!

This is all due to election promises and not to forget previous regime burdens!

Cheers!
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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Rapaport on Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:51 pm

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:26 am

Now trading at 47/=.

Expected EPS over 12/= and trading at 3.9 times.

A possible dividend of 3/= in May.

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by PriyanDV on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:45 am

But now Revised Taxation can be effect for company profits . Isn't it ?

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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by Future123 on Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:20 pm

Wattala branch opened.

http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=2016/01/29/business/vallibel-finance-opens-branch-wattala

More to come this year. Balangoda, Dambulla and Hikkaduwa.

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Interim Financial Statements as of 31-03-2016

Post by Rana on Tue May 17, 2016 5:21 pm


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Re: VFIN - where the journey leads it?

Post by slstock on Tue May 17, 2016 5:39 pm

slstock wrote:

VFIN :

I estimate VFIN to report about Rs3.5 - Rs 4 eps for March.
Dividend about Rs 3.

Let see how close we can get.


No matter who says what VFiN theoraticallly to me is valued more than
COCR, HDFC and BLI. One can argue one can push .. but if one remembers
the comment I made when COCR was Rs 60-70 and VFIN was trading below that , all i can say now is COCR is Rs 50 now and VFIN is Rs 67


Ref :
http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t5227p225-lfin-future#68066

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VFIN March report out today.

Quarter Eps 3.95 ( see above post for the estimate made )

Yearly Rs 12.35
Net Assets : 46.62

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