The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» JINS.N0000 ( Janashakthi Insurance PLC)
Today at 7:25 am by yellow knife

» Dividend Announcement
Today at 7:19 am by yellow knife

» බුද්ධ භවනා
Yesterday at 2:35 pm by Ethical Trader

» Laughter the Best Medicine
Yesterday at 2:13 pm by pee ratio

» Happy Birthday
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:28 pm by The Alchemist

» හවුල් ආණ්ඩුව තවදුරටත් පවතින බව පාර්ලිමේන්තුවට දන්වයි
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:17 pm by Ethical Trader

» ජීවිතය පටන් ගන්නේ 60න්
Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:14 pm by lanka

» EAP ගනුදෙනුවේ සැඟවුණු ගැනුම්කරු හෙළිවෙයි
Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:39 pm by lanka

» මිලියන 4,000 ක අකිලගේ ටැබ් කොන්ත්‍රාත්තුව අබාන්ස්ට
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:55 pm by nihal123

» Dhananath Fernando wins $ 10,000 for Sri Lanka in Think Tank Shark Tank in Asia
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:35 am by Ethical Trader

» උදයංග වීරතුංග රැගෙන ඒමට පොලිස් නිලධාරීහු ඩුබායි වෙත
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:24 am by soileconomy

» ධම්මික පෙරේරා කෝටි 16 ක කාරයක් ගෙනෙයි
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:31 pm by soileconomy

» ආර්ථික අර්බුදය ඉක්මවා ගිය දේශපාලන අර්බුදය හමුවේ 'රුපියල'
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:00 pm by Ethical Trader

» SAMP.N0000 (SAMPATH BANK PLC)
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:18 pm by Ethical Trader

» APLA.N0000 (ACL PLASTICS PLC)
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:12 am by pjrngroup

» විගණකාධිපතිගේ 2016 වාර්තාව මෙන්න
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:31 pm by Ethical Trader

» Boost for foreign investment in Govt. securities
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:45 pm by Ethical Trader

» අනිලානා පුද්ගලික නිකුතුවට කොටස්කරුවන්ගේ සහාය පතයි
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:28 am by The Invisible

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:39 pm by Ethical Trader

» ලෝක ආර්ථිකය කඩා වැටෙද්දී එහි බලපෑම කොළඹට දැනුන හැටි
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:13 pm by nihal123

» තෙල් මිලේ වැඩිවීමෙන් ගුවන් ටිකට් මිල නගී
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:04 pm by Ethical Trader

» ජනාධිපති පරීක්ෂණ කොමිෂන් සභාවෙන් ලද, සිංහල භාෂාමය වාර්තා තිස් හතර (34)
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:04 pm by Ethical Trader

» විල්පත්තු "වන විනාශය": පෙත්සම සලකා බැලීමට අධිකරණයේ අවසර
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:10 pm by nihal123

» බැඳුම්කරය: ඇලෝසියස් සහ පළිසේන අත්අඩංගුවට
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:08 pm by nihal123

» TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )
Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:02 pm by bear

» ජනශක්ති ගනුදෙනුව තීන්දුයි. වටිනාකම රුපියල් බිලියන 16 යි
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:57 pm by nihal123

» කොළඹ කොටස් අසාමූහිකරණ පනත පාර්ලිමේන්තුවට
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:42 pm by Ethical Trader

» BBC කණ්ඩායමක් තාලිබාන් පාලන කලාපයකට ඇතුල් වෙති
Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:05 pm by Ethical Trader

» වර්ෂ 152 කට පසු දර්ශනය වන 'සුපිරි නීල රුහිරු සඳ'
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:58 pm by Ethical Trader

» ලංකා බැංකුවට අයත් ජනශක්ති හිමිකම විකුණයි
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:54 pm by Ethical Trader

» අයවැය ක්‍රියාත්මක කිරීමේ දී පාර්ලිමේන්තුවේ අධීක්ෂණය දුර්වලයි
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:52 pm by Ethical Trader

» ජනපති හා ADB අධ්‍යක්ෂ මණ්ඩල සාමාජිකයින් අතර හමුවක්
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:51 pm by Ethical Trader

» තවත් කොටස් තැරැව්කාර සමාගමක් වසා දමයි
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:50 pm by Ethical Trader

» ජනපතිගේ රැලිය ආවරණය කිරීමට ගිය මාධ්‍යවේදීන්ට "තර්ජන"
Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:59 pm by soileconomy

» Bank of Ceylon divests stake in Janashakthi Insurance
Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:58 pm by TraderCSE

» වෛද්‍ය වර්ජනය: රජයේ වෛද්‍ය නිලධාරීන්ගේ සංගමයේ ඉල්ලීම් මොනවාද?
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:36 pm by Ethical Trader

» නිවුන් අලි උපත්: මේ කරුණු දැන සිටියාද?
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:14 pm by Ethical Trader

» Perpetual Treasuries
Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:43 am by Danidu

» කලා කෘතියක් ඉල්ලූ ජනාධිපති ට්‍රම්ප් වෙත 'රන් වැසිකිලියක්' - වාර්තා
Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:37 pm by Ethical Trader

» TJL.N0000 (Textured Jersey Lanka PLC.)
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:32 pm by Ethical Trader

» සේවා ස්ථානයේ අරියාදු සහ අඩන්තේට්ටම් : 'බුලි' වුණොත් මොකද කරන්නේ?
Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:02 pm by Ethical Trader

» RULES ON ALL OR NONE (AON) BLOCKS
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:55 pm by Ethical Trader

» Time is of essence in dealing with dengue:Expert, Recent deaths could be due to patients "coming in late" for treatment
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:08 pm by AjithR

» නියම බුදු දහම
Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:42 pm by Ethical Trader

» "දූෂණය" ගැන මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂට නඩු පවරන්න - ජනාධිපති කොමිසම
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:04 pm by Ethical Trader

» හිඟයක් වැළැක්වීමට ලේ දන් දෙන්න: ජනතාව වෙත ඉල්ලීමක්
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:12 pm by Ethical Trader

» බලාගෙනයි, 'ගුවනින් අසූචි'!
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:10 pm by Ethical Trader

» සිව් හෙලයේ ඉතිහාසය නිවැරදි කිරීම
Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:51 am by Ethical Trader

» ප්‍රගීත් එක්නැලිගොඩ: "ෆයිල් අතුරුදහන්වීම" ගැන සන්ධ්‍යා හමුදාපතිට කිවූ දේ
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:13 pm by Ethical Trader

» China offers best chance for SL development: CB
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:27 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

February 2018
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728   

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

What to Analyse

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by pathfinder on Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:03 pm

First Guy wrote:path - please don't take it personal. It should be a debate on views and not people. it's not fighting people with tools or weapons but tools used and how you get to the final destination.


FG I don't take anything personal as this is not my FB page or a personal blog.

Glad to see you open your mouth,but you couldn't  voice to appreciate a finding of a share which gave a 40% gain in very short period.Instead drag the topic somewhere else.This is called sucker effect.
This is the change of  sentiment of members of SENTIMENT forum.way to go. cheers

First Guy wrote:
You can go to a place by road or air. some not accessible by air and some not by road. sometimes it is quicker to go by road (short distance). But in most cases both are possible but time, cost, effort vary. Smile

It's personal preference to use air or road,but Aeroplanes have no right to land on roads where poor people travel rabbit

Nothing PERSONAL FG Very Happy
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Longterm view of ASI

Post by pathfinder on Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:14 pm

This is the longterm view of ASI.

All these are publicly available data anyone can access.



As shown in the red trend line ASI is moving in a positive longterm direction since 2002.This is the longterm sentiment of investors.Once established it usually travel up to 25Yrs or more.So I expect to have this longterm positive sentiment till 2028-2030.
So longterm investors no need to have worry about there longterm positions till that.

During the longterm journy ASI had completed 3 primary trends.Marked in the chart.

Bull phase of 1st primary trend last about 5 and half years, bit higher duration than a normal trend.
Then it had bear phase waves till 61.8% fib retracement.

Then second primary trend started at December 2008.Bull phase had more than 2Yrs till Feb 2011 with few intermediate correction waves.
Then bear phase started and ended at July 2012.The value stands at 50% correction.

The 3rd primary trend started at July 2012.Bull phase ended at Jan 2015 with intermediate correction waves.Bear phase started there and ended at April 2016.Again 50% Fib level.Amazing isn't it.

If looked carefully there are small short term waves in all intermediate waves.

Now the fourth primary wave has started since April 2016. At the writing date what we are facing is a intermediate correction wave of a bull phase.

In summery

ASI is moving in a rather predictable pattern with average primary trends lasting 4-5yrs.
Each primary trend has bull phase about 2-3yrs.followed by rather short bear phase about 1.5-2Yrs.
Each bull and bear phase has interemediate waves and short term waves inside intermediate waves.

My conclusion,

ASI is on a longterm Bull phase.I expect it till 2028-2030
Now bull phase of the 4th primary trend has started.I expect it till 2018June -Sep,before next bear phase.
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Axe on Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:10 pm

Thanks Path. Very interesting... Let's celebrate in 2018!
avatar
Axe

Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by xmart on Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:18 pm

Very nicely put, path +
Agree to the last drop.

Thanks
avatar
xmart
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 573
Join date : 2015-01-17

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by blacknights on Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:46 pm

Great analysis Path. Good to see you back in action.
avatar
blacknights

Posts : 257
Join date : 2014-08-28

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:12 am

Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


------

I also agree with the ideas of cycles and super cycles in the market and the concept of, market swinging around a long term trend line (or curve), as expressed in some of my posts in the past.
While, in them, arrived trend line would be slightly different (but not much) from that of yours.


Last edited by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:43 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
HUNTER
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1650
Join date : 2014-07-14

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by smallville on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:15 am

What an analysis Smile Very nice and commendable effort Path..


_________________
I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
avatar
smallville
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1723
Join date : 2014-02-23
Location : Trying to figure out..

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by roshana7549 on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:39 am

Thanks Path for showing us the Market direction in a different angle!!!

roshana7549

Posts : 277
Join date : 2014-04-18

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by lanka on Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:13 am

Thank you,dear parthf

lanka

Posts : 311
Join date : 2014-11-26

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:10 pm

Thanks path for your effort and highlighting of the CSE directions from TA angle

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5633
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by pathfinder on Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:43 pm

Thanks guys for encouraging words.


HUNTER wrote:Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


I was saying this for longtime,but didn't go in to details.Infact I hinted downfall in Jan 2015 by saying the bull is Two years old,Can't remember the thread.
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by First Guy on Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:19 pm

Thanks for the ASI chart and analysis path!
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by kollongaha on Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:41 pm

Thank you very much Path. much much appreciated . great TA.

kollongaha

Posts : 20
Join date : 2016-03-29

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Axe on Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:15 pm

CFVF has come down sharply after reaching 34.8... Now it's trading at 50% retracement level at 28-28.10... The order book was very bring throughot the day but became active towards the latter part of the day,, It looks like we could do some trading in case if ASI turns back up...

Have you guys made similar observations?
avatar
Axe

Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

Back to top Go down

beginning of second intermediate trend

Post by pathfinder on Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:29 pm

ASI made turnaround at 50% Fib correction I said in this thread.At that point total turnover become high and ASI bounce back sharply.It's a good positive sign.

Following chart shows ASI movement with Fib levels.

RSI made a acute turn from oversold region and crossed the trend line.
MACD is about to make a turn, around "0" line.Once done it's a very bullish sign.

I expect ASI to move up from here to form the second intermediate trend of 4th primary trend I stated in earlier.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Future123 on Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:01 pm

Thanks a lot Path.

Future123
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1417
Join date : 2014-04-09

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by The Alchemist on Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:20 pm

Interesting ! Thanks Pathfinder

The Alchemist
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 559
Join date : 2014-02-25

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:35 am

Thanks Path

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5633
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by First Guy on Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:56 am

Thank you
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Poultry stocks

Post by pathfinder on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:43 pm

As a group, poultry is now showing good buy signals. Very Happy
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:47 pm

ok....thanks path

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5633
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by lanka on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:30 am

Thanks, dear Path

lanka

Posts : 311
Join date : 2014-11-26

Back to top Go down

few charts

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:46 pm

Thought to update few charts,

JKH,

JKH daily chart shows rounding bottom,Price line move above 10 day SMA,with RSI making a move above trend line,MACD crossing near 0 line.Technically JKH is a bullish counter.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

AEL chart

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:04 pm

AEL also shows bullish trend,

Price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,MACD crossing.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

AAIC chart

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:19 pm

Another bullish counter,

PSAR down and price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,A MACD crossing as well.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum