The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» How to Calculate the Future Value of an Investment
Yesterday at 11:46 am by Ethical Trader

» මුගාබේ ඉවත් වීමත් සමඟ 'හරාරේ' සැණකෙළි සිරි ගනියි
Yesterday at 11:34 am by Ethical Trader

» විසිපස් වසරක් ගෙවුනත් ඉල්ලීම් ඉටුවී නැහැ - නිදහස් මාධ්‍ය ව්‍යාපාරය
Yesterday at 11:30 am by Ethical Trader

» Dividend Announcement
Yesterday at 11:21 am by Ethical Trader

» කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත කෙරෙන අලුත්ම සමාගම – LVL Energy Fund Limited
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:42 pm by nihal123

» අගමැති රනිල් බැඳුම්කර කොමිසම හමුවේ පැවසුවේ මොනවාද?
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:08 pm by Ethical Trader

» Obituary Notice.
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:03 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» උතුරු කොරියාවේ "සබ්මැරීන බැලිස්ටික් මිසයිල වැඩසටහනකුත්"
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:34 am by Ethical Trader

» උතුරු කොරියාව සහ න්‍යෂ්ඨික ප්‍රහාර: "නීති විරෝධී නියෝග පිළිපදින්නේ නෑ"
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:28 am by Ethical Trader

» 'සොල්දාදුවාගේ සිරුරේ අඟල් එකොළහක පණුවෙක්'
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:13 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» මිනිස්සු දුවනවා, අපි නැවතිලා බලන් ඉන්නවා.
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:46 pm by Ethical Trader

» Plantation sector updates
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:54 am by lanka

» සිම්බාබ්වේ: ජනාධිපති රොබට් මුගාබේ "අත්අඩංගුවේ"
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:54 am by Ethical Trader

» ආයෝජනයට ශ්‍රීලංකාවට එන්න එපා.! ජාත්‍යන්තර සමාගම් නිවේදනයකට සැරසෙයි
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:15 pm by Admin

» Soldiers 'take over Zimbabwe broadcaster'
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:52 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» බටහිර ලෝකය භේද කරන බවට රුසියාවට චෝදනා
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:26 pm by Ethical Trader

» යුද අපරාධ සහ අතුරුදහන් කිරීම්: ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ මානව හිමිකම් වාර්තාව ජිනීවා විමසුමට
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:56 am by Ethical Trader

» ඉරාන, ඉරාක භූමිකම්පාවෙන් 200 කට වැඩි පිරිසක් මරුට
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:27 pm by Ethical Trader

» මැද පෙරදිග බල තරඟය දරුණු අතට හැරෙයි
Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:16 pm by guruji

» වචන නම් අපේ ඒත් තනුව ?????????
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:28 am by Rana

» දිල්ලියේ පරිසරය රැකීමට වාහන සලාක ක්‍රමයක්
Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:05 pm by Ethical Trader

» අයවැය සහ මෝටර් රථ: නව පිළිවෙතක්
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:42 pm by Ethical Trader

» Flying is the Safest mode of Transport
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» In the Meantime, Within Our Shores !
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:13 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» වංචා දුෂණ නඩු කඩිනම් කරන්න විශේෂ මහාධිකරණයක්
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:54 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:48 pm by Ethical Trader

» ගින්නෙන් දැවෙන අලි පැටවාගේ සේයාරුව පළමු තැනට
Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:35 pm by Ethical Trader

» 10 Things to Remember Before You Take Things Personally
Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:38 pm by Ethical Trader

» හැම තැනම නැහැ, හැම දාම නැහැ
Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:30 pm by Ethical Trader

» Beware !
Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:56 am by CK

» සාම සාධක මෙහෙයුම් නිරීක්ෂණය කරන පළමු ශ්‍රී ලාංකික හමුදා නිලධාරිනියෝ
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:44 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» How to Find Undervalued Stocks and Turn a Large Profit
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:24 am by Ethical Trader

» ඒකාබද්ධ විපක්ෂ කණ්ඩායමෙන් ශ්‍රීලනිපට කොන්දේසි හතක්
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:29 pm by nihal123

» Taste of Asia
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:27 pm by Ethical Trader

» නිව් යෝර්ක් ප්‍රහාරය : අවම වශයෙන් 8 දෙනෙක් මරුට
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:48 pm by Ethical Trader

» NTB.N0000 (NATIONS TRUST BANK PLC)
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:43 pm by Ethical Trader

» Laughter the Best Medicine
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:48 am by Ethical Trader

» VPEL.N0000 (VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC )
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:15 am by yellow knife

» TJL.N0000 (Textured Jersey Lanka PLC.)
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:07 am by yellow knife

» TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:56 am by yellow knife

» BFL.N0000 (Bairaha Farms PLC)
Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:16 pm by CK

» LLUB & BFL
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:41 am by yellow knife

» HUNA.N0000
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:26 am by yellow knife

» Sri Lanka's got Talent
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:31 pm by sashimaal

» Govt.electrocutes CEB
Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:53 pm by AjithR

» තනි පුද්ගල ණය ලක්ෂ 5 ට ආසන්නයි
Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:46 pm by nihal123

» ලෝක ඉතිහාසයේ විශාලතම කොටස් මිල කඩා වැටීම චීනයෙන් වාර්තා වෙයි
Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:45 pm by nihal123

» COMB.N0000 ( COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC )
Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:53 pm by Rana

» ධම්මික පෙරමුණට එයි
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:09 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» කොටස් මිල ඉහළ යාමෙන් ඇමේසන් ලොක්කා ලොව අංක එකේ සල්ලිකාරයා වුණේ මෙහෙමයි
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:22 pm by nihal123

November 2017
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

What to Analyse

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by pathfinder on Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:03 pm

First Guy wrote:path - please don't take it personal. It should be a debate on views and not people. it's not fighting people with tools or weapons but tools used and how you get to the final destination.


FG I don't take anything personal as this is not my FB page or a personal blog.

Glad to see you open your mouth,but you couldn't  voice to appreciate a finding of a share which gave a 40% gain in very short period.Instead drag the topic somewhere else.This is called sucker effect.
This is the change of  sentiment of members of SENTIMENT forum.way to go. cheers

First Guy wrote:
You can go to a place by road or air. some not accessible by air and some not by road. sometimes it is quicker to go by road (short distance). But in most cases both are possible but time, cost, effort vary. Smile

It's personal preference to use air or road,but Aeroplanes have no right to land on roads where poor people travel rabbit

Nothing PERSONAL FG Very Happy
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Longterm view of ASI

Post by pathfinder on Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:14 pm

This is the longterm view of ASI.

All these are publicly available data anyone can access.



As shown in the red trend line ASI is moving in a positive longterm direction since 2002.This is the longterm sentiment of investors.Once established it usually travel up to 25Yrs or more.So I expect to have this longterm positive sentiment till 2028-2030.
So longterm investors no need to have worry about there longterm positions till that.

During the longterm journy ASI had completed 3 primary trends.Marked in the chart.

Bull phase of 1st primary trend last about 5 and half years, bit higher duration than a normal trend.
Then it had bear phase waves till 61.8% fib retracement.

Then second primary trend started at December 2008.Bull phase had more than 2Yrs till Feb 2011 with few intermediate correction waves.
Then bear phase started and ended at July 2012.The value stands at 50% correction.

The 3rd primary trend started at July 2012.Bull phase ended at Jan 2015 with intermediate correction waves.Bear phase started there and ended at April 2016.Again 50% Fib level.Amazing isn't it.

If looked carefully there are small short term waves in all intermediate waves.

Now the fourth primary wave has started since April 2016. At the writing date what we are facing is a intermediate correction wave of a bull phase.

In summery

ASI is moving in a rather predictable pattern with average primary trends lasting 4-5yrs.
Each primary trend has bull phase about 2-3yrs.followed by rather short bear phase about 1.5-2Yrs.
Each bull and bear phase has interemediate waves and short term waves inside intermediate waves.

My conclusion,

ASI is on a longterm Bull phase.I expect it till 2028-2030
Now bull phase of the 4th primary trend has started.I expect it till 2018June -Sep,before next bear phase.
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Axe on Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:10 pm

Thanks Path. Very interesting... Let's celebrate in 2018!
avatar
Axe

Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by xmart on Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:18 pm

Very nicely put, path +
Agree to the last drop.

Thanks
avatar
xmart
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 572
Join date : 2015-01-17

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by blacknights on Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:46 pm

Great analysis Path. Good to see you back in action.
avatar
blacknights

Posts : 257
Join date : 2014-08-28

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:12 am

Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


------

I also agree with the ideas of cycles and super cycles in the market and the concept of, market swinging around a long term trend line (or curve), as expressed in some of my posts in the past.
While, in them, arrived trend line would be slightly different (but not much) from that of yours.


Last edited by HUNTER on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:43 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
HUNTER
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1649
Join date : 2014-07-14

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by smallville on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:15 am

What an analysis Smile Very nice and commendable effort Path..


_________________
I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
avatar
smallville
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1722
Join date : 2014-02-23
Location : Trying to figure out..

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by roshana7549 on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:39 am

Thanks Path for showing us the Market direction in a different angle!!!

roshana7549

Posts : 277
Join date : 2014-04-18

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by lanka on Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:13 am

Thank you,dear parthf

lanka

Posts : 274
Join date : 2014-11-26

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:10 pm

Thanks path for your effort and highlighting of the CSE directions from TA angle

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5590
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by pathfinder on Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:43 pm

Thanks guys for encouraging words.


HUNTER wrote:Good one path.

When did you start to work on this line of thinking?


I was saying this for longtime,but didn't go in to details.Infact I hinted downfall in Jan 2015 by saying the bull is Two years old,Can't remember the thread.
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by First Guy on Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:19 pm

Thanks for the ASI chart and analysis path!
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by kollongaha on Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:41 pm

Thank you very much Path. much much appreciated . great TA.

kollongaha

Posts : 20
Join date : 2016-03-29

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Axe on Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:15 pm

CFVF has come down sharply after reaching 34.8... Now it's trading at 50% retracement level at 28-28.10... The order book was very bring throughot the day but became active towards the latter part of the day,, It looks like we could do some trading in case if ASI turns back up...

Have you guys made similar observations?
avatar
Axe

Posts : 251
Join date : 2014-02-23

Back to top Go down

beginning of second intermediate trend

Post by pathfinder on Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:29 pm

ASI made turnaround at 50% Fib correction I said in this thread.At that point total turnover become high and ASI bounce back sharply.It's a good positive sign.

Following chart shows ASI movement with Fib levels.

RSI made a acute turn from oversold region and crossed the trend line.
MACD is about to make a turn, around "0" line.Once done it's a very bullish sign.

I expect ASI to move up from here to form the second intermediate trend of 4th primary trend I stated in earlier.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by Future123 on Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:01 pm

Thanks a lot Path.

Future123
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1417
Join date : 2014-04-09

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by The Alchemist on Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:20 pm

Interesting ! Thanks Pathfinder

The Alchemist
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 546
Join date : 2014-02-25

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:35 am

Thanks Path

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5590
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by First Guy on Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:56 am

Thank you
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Poultry stocks

Post by pathfinder on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:43 pm

As a group, poultry is now showing good buy signals. Very Happy
avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:47 pm

ok....thanks path

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5590
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: What to Analyse

Post by lanka on Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:30 am

Thanks, dear Path

lanka

Posts : 274
Join date : 2014-11-26

Back to top Go down

few charts

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:46 pm

Thought to update few charts,

JKH,

JKH daily chart shows rounding bottom,Price line move above 10 day SMA,with RSI making a move above trend line,MACD crossing near 0 line.Technically JKH is a bullish counter.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

AEL chart

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:04 pm

AEL also shows bullish trend,

Price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,MACD crossing.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

AAIC chart

Post by pathfinder on Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:19 pm

Another bullish counter,

PSAR down and price moving above 10 day SMA,RSI crossed trend line,A MACD crossing as well.

avatar
pathfinder
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2014-02-23
Age : 36

Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum