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Insight for Manufacturing Industry

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Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Thu May 28, 2015 9:56 pm

Manufacturing sector is being subjected to heavy attraction of both traders and investors with respective prospective since mid of 2014. this triggered by world raw material price drops, world oil price drop, Sri Lanka electricity cost reduction and growth of middle class in Sri lanka.

Since i believe that dangers are around the corner where big opportunity lay, thought of doing bit of detail analysis on manufacturing sector outlook and future prospective as my time permitted.

well, if i took liberty to narrow down few manufacturing sector company and take one by one to the consideration in broad angle, it might be much useful.

and guys, please do contribute as and when time permitted for the betterment of the forum and our investors (well, we have very little of them though)

1. ACL/ APLA/ KCAB/ SIRA - cable industry
2. RCL/ TILE/ LWL/ CERA - Tile Industry
3. PARQ/ LALU/ ALUF/ ALUM- Aluminium Industry
4. GLAS/ DPL- glass and porcelain industry
5. REG/ ABAN/ SINI- Consumer equipment
6. DIPD/ REXP/ TYRE- latex and rubber products
7. TJL/ OGL/ MGT/ HEXP- Textile industry
8. GRAN/ AGST- fertilizer and feeds
9. HEXP- fiber products
10 HAYC- active carbon/ chemical industry
11. CIND- PVC products

did i miss anything?

we will discuss one group by one group.

thanks


Last edited by xmart on Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Backstage on Thu May 28, 2015 10:25 pm

Ahh just what I wanted. Hope we can do one for FMCG also.

What about: HAYC, HEXP, SWAD, MGT, TYRE,CIND.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu May 28, 2015 10:33 pm

Thanks Xmart for the initiation of this thread. Very Happy
I am sure (here) we are ready to go places now.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Thu May 28, 2015 10:36 pm

ACL/ APLA/ KCAB/ SIRA

cable industry is heavily depend on world copper price, pvc price and local construction developments. if we look at world copper price at the moment,

% Change of Copper price:
Weekly: -2.33 %
Monthly:-0.46 %
Yearly:  -13.36 %

even though Cu bounced back on Feb 2nd, 2015 the trend has no force behind it and most probably test the support level in coming months.


source: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

the important fact is that our cable companies do lock copper price for a time period just like oil prices. cable industry profit margin will be decided by 2 factors.

1. what is the lock price for each company.
2. how much sale they can make in coming quarters, company with larger market cap will be benefited.

the second question will lead us to local construction industry, which is essentially not mega projects like highways, harbors, air ports etc. if you take a tour around colombo and main cities we can see many development (hotels, apartments, office complex etc) in progress. since the competition is high, these people are giving 25%- 40% discount to get the projects like that. that lead us back to question no. 01, one who can give attractive discount is the one who lock the copper price at low.

here i found discussion slstock started about this group. we can relate to the post as well.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

share performance so far
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Valuation based on DCF, EPS, Graham number and bengamin graham formula (which i took liberty to change according to our country)
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

update: 29th May 2015

Revenue growth wise both KCAB and ACL perform around 12% and gross profit margin growth is 1% higher in KCAB, which is around 9.5%. also KCAB is having less debt compared to ACL. even thought market share of ACL larger than KCAB, by considering the less shares and better performance it can be concluded that KCAB will outperform ACL in short to medium run. but ACL is the clear giant in cable industry. also it was observed that ACL hold 4% of KCAB and 2nd largest shareholder.

based on 2015 march results valuation was updated.

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Last edited by xmart on Fri May 29, 2015 11:09 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu May 28, 2015 10:59 pm

What are the likely threats pose to local manufacturers from cheap finished products import from other parts of the world ?
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Nuinth on Fri May 29, 2015 5:29 am

Thx Xmart. Most awaiting analysis.

As Back's mentioned MGT also will play considerable role with TJL. Heard from somewhere Germany is backing to give back GSP+ to SL. Hope these conters will benefited.

How about the DPL...? Hope they also will benefit as low electricity price.

From cable SIRA looks attractive.

Guys, don't go away from market in next 3-4 qtrs... alien

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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Fri May 29, 2015 11:18 pm

Thanks for the comments guys.

@back & nuinth,

HAYC, HEXP, SWAD, MGT, TYRE,CIND are worth to study. i will add them too.

@kith,

What are the likely threats pose to local manufacturers from cheap finished products import from other parts of the world ?

well, they import basically everything; tile, bath ware, glass, canned fish, etc.
but still there are some industries which are less affected by cheap imported products.

cheer
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Fri May 29, 2015 11:22 pm

Thanks and awaits more insightful exposures. Very Happy
xmart wrote:Thanks for the comments guys.

@back & nuinth,

HAYC, HEXP, SWAD, MGT, TYRE,CIND are worth to study. i will add them too.

@kith,

What are the likely threats pose to local manufacturers from cheap finished products import from other parts of the world ?

well, they import basically everything; tile, bath ware, glass, canned fish, etc.
but still there are some industries which are less affected by cheap imported products.


cheer
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by pathfinder on Sat May 30, 2015 11:26 am

Really a good one Xmart + keep going Very Happy
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Backstage on Sat May 30, 2015 8:13 pm

About the cables......
Thanks X,
We are aware that SIRA management and administration was a bit weak(discovering fraud a bit late in the day.) Does anyone know about the management, governance and transparency of the ACL group which is a family concern. Also the investment in Rhesus needs to be acknowledged.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Sun May 31, 2015 11:51 pm

well, it looks like SIRA has restructured. but the baby is still so young and couldn't diagnose his body tone. shall we give SIRA few more quarters and then decide!

back, you nailed the problem (some may call the strength) of ACL. actually the ACL group is controlling the KCAB and APLA. there are few other competitors like Ruhunu cables, Kamal Cables and Orange, but they have very small market share. ACL/ Kelani dominate domestic and most industrial projects while SIRA survive using big contracts such as CEB.

since the controlling body, ACL overhead is high and profit margin is little small than KCAB, KCAB can outperform ACL in short run. shares outstanding in public hand are 22 M (37.9%) in ACL and 4.4 M (20.2%) in KCAB.

family governance has done no bad for ACL group but the management think little about small investors. their dividend policy witness that. since ACL has more liquidity and stability Institutional interest is focus to it. but these investors bit hesitate to invest in something which is managed by a family.

thanks
Backstage wrote:About the cables......
Thanks X,
We are aware that SIRA management and administration was a bit weak(discovering fraud a bit late in the day.) Does anyone know about the management, governance and transparency of the ACL group which is a family concern. Also the investment in Rhesus needs to be acknowledged.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by pathfinder on Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:01 am

xmart wrote:well, it looks like SIRA has restructured. but the baby is still so young and couldn't diagnose his body tone. shall we give SIRA few more quarters and then decide!

back, you nailed the problem (some may call the strength) of ACL. actually the ACL group is controlling the KCAB and APLA. there are few other competitors like Ruhunu cables, Kamal Cables and Orange, but they have very small market share. ACL/ Kelani dominate domestic and most industrial projects while SIRA survive using big contracts such as CEB.

since the controlling body, ACL overhead is high and profit margin is little small than KCAB, KCAB can outperform ACL in short run. shares outstanding in public hand are 22 M (37.9%) in ACL and 4.4 M (20.2%) in KCAB.

family governance has done no bad for ACL group but the management think little about small investors. their dividend policy witness that. since ACL has more liquidity and stability Institutional interest is focus to it. but these investors bit hesitate to invest in something which is managed by a family.

thanks
Backstage wrote:About the cables......
Thanks X,
We are aware that SIRA management and administration was a bit weak(discovering fraud a bit late in the day.) Does anyone know about the management, governance and transparency of the ACL group which is a family concern. Also the investment in Rhesus needs to be acknowledged.
Yes you are right ACL is not a generous company.
Impact of recent acquisition of Resus energy as a joint venture is interesting in coming quarters.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by HUNTER on Mon Jun 01, 2015 11:13 am

Excellent thread xmart +
Keep it up!

This is like the other half of my way of analysis.

I see certain signs of opportunities in following counters; it seems, we can analyse the reasons in this thread:

1. CIND.N
2. LWL.N
3. RCL.N
4. DIPD.N
5. TILE.N
6. CERA.N
7. HAYL.N

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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by chutiputha on Mon Jun 01, 2015 11:26 am

Thank U Xmart for ut Smart Initiation 2 Likes Smile

And I love to see RCL,CIND are in Hot List Smile
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Hunter, Chuty,

Thanks for the encouragement.

well, ACL report far better result than expected.
i was expecting Revenue of 15,500 M and 16.5% profit Margin from ACL.

It was pretty impressive that though they have only 14,512 M revenue for year ending 2015, they were able to record 17.4% profit margin.

ACL/ APLA/KCAB on hot plate now. enjoy the show. i think it is better not to talk about this group until the heat is over. otherwise there is a possible danger of labeling as a promoter. anyway, as a note this post was done before reports out and when no one was interested in this group.

they have this family governance and dividend issue. plus points are Copper and PVC prices are healthy and cable industry still use their old price lists with 20- 25% discount. when the turnover is big they do not hesitate to go for 40% discount either.

I think it is time to move on to another group.
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Nuinth on Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:16 pm

Thx Xmart for update.

Hope this sector turnover will go up with future construction growth (After political drama settle down). Further raw material price will be friendly with higher profit.

Thx once again for pointing out this.

Good luck all....!


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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:58 pm

DPL/ GLAS/ LWL/ RCL/ CERA/ TILE

Well.. Ceramic, Porcelain and Glass Industry is being favored in recent past and making huge turnovers.
since glass and ceramic/ porcelain production processes are same it was decided to categorized in to one section.

Production Process:

1. Dry Milling
2. Extrusion
3. Dust Pressing
4. Drying

Since this industry is a heavy electricity/energy intensive category, electricity is representing 20-30% of production cost. 15% cost electricity tariff reduction was the main advantage of this group.

Raw materials

There are certain key materials that are either used directly by the ceramics industry or that represent the starting point for the production of added-value materials:

silica
clay
alumina
magnesia
titania
iron oxide
zircon/zirconia.

raw material cost has no major impact on production cost as my knowledge serves. its energy what matter to the industry production cost.

since there are lot of hopes for DPL, lets take DPL separate

DPL
DPL is an export base company. therefore LKR/USD is important

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

DPL share price movement in respective duration

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Quick look at financials

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

the company has a great potential but poor management is holding DPL from growing. Rupee has being depreciation ever since. but DPL couldn't harvest the advantage, well, actually their gross profit and FCF is ok but the administrative expenses and the distribution expenses are too high, Net profit margin become negative due to those. since their revenue and gross profit margin is growing, group will perform well if management become smarter than this.

they were very keen on production energy cost and has take several measures to maintain a good energy mix and balance load unlike previous, also they have identified their risks said they took measures. anyway, this is a company to watch.

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can anyone explain their admin cost and distribution cost?


Last edited by xmart on Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:52 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Backstage on Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:25 pm

Great thread X keep going.

What about Dolomite/Calcite ?
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Nuinth on Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:28 am

Superb Xmart... flower

Then electricity cost benifit will appear in the financial statement of this group in the future (I like to follow low price shares like DPL, GLAS.. drunken )

Good luck guys...


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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by smallville on Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:19 am

ACL - also is the main shareholder of Resus energy (HPWR), their entry into hydro power means they want to expand and diversify their interests in their portfolio of business too..
HPWR have been reporting losses due to Thermal power involvement. Last year they completely sold it and recorded the loss in transaction this qtr. So still they reported losses.. But no Hydro from now on-wards means we can be optimistic on their turn-around too. That means added bottom line improvement for ACL group.

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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by Backstage on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:13 am

Nuinth wrote:Superb Xmart... flower

Then electricity cost benifit will appear in the financial statement of this group in the future (I like to follow low price shares like DPL, GLAS.. drunken )

Good luck guys...



Being totally export oriented with 100% local raw materials ,DPL will also benefit from devaluation.

DIPD, Low rubber prices, lower energy costs and weaker rupee, lot of things seem to be coming together for DIPD.


Last edited by Backstage on Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:15 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : mistake)
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by xmart on Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:16 pm

Nuinth wrote:Superb Xmart... flower

Then electricity cost benifit will appear in the financial statement of this group in the future (I like to follow low price shares like DPL, GLAS.. drunken )

Good luck guys...


I would say, GLAS will directly benefited from tariff reduction. Though the energy cost is important factor in DPL, their overhead and admin expenses can eat up the saving done by tariff reduction at the moment. but looking at future prospective (always has a risk) one can invest in DPL around its NAV. further DPL has been appreciated 50- 80% in short term with Rupee depreciation. it looks like LKR/USD will look down at 134. but if Rupee get pressured and break 134, DPL will have a run.

smallville wrote:ACL - also is the main shareholder of Resus energy (HPWR), their entry into hydro power means they want to expand and diversify their interests in their portfolio of business too..
HPWR have been reporting losses due to Thermal power involvement. Last year they completely sold it and recorded the loss in transaction this qtr. So still they reported losses.. But no Hydro from now on-wards means we can be optimistic on their turn-around too. That means added bottom line improvement for ACL group.

i think you mean "No thermal" right pal?

HPWR will turnaround but will take sometime as almost all the mini hydro sites are reserved or built. they have to move into solar, wind or waste as they plan to go green. those are not profitable like mini hydro. if they start a mini hydro project from the cash left, it will be a cash cow for ACL. still i would say HPWR is not a bold option by ACL.

cheer!
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Sun Jun 07, 2015 8:37 am

Good & honest burst of Sunshine.
Thanks xmart. Very Happy
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by pathfinder on Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:44 pm

Good one Xmart
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Re: Insight for Manufacturing Industry

Post by chutiputha on Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:50 pm

Ah Cool..U r not Xmart,but u are Smart Smile +
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