Can BLI ignite another run?

[smallvilleTop contributor]

I just saw some salient features of the previous run of BLI.. Just thot of sharing..

Last couple of days, BLI was trying to get pushed up above 140 but by noon sell orders drag this to 136s again.. yesterday 32k vol traded.

However,  Last time the run from 90s was initiated after 6 days from P.SAR signal. MACD confirmation came at 118.

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So what were the features?

1. Prior to run, bollinger bands squeezed.
2. P.SAR signal came early while MACD confirmation was delayed.

What I'm seeing now?

1. PSAR has turned now.. traded 3 days as well.
2. Bollinger bands hav squeezed - meaning a breakout is near..
3. MACD confirmation - Pending.. however, last time it was delayed.

But if BLI goes to 130 again these will get invalidated..

[smallvilleTop contributor]

BLI has not let the investors down.. Massive increase in profitability.

For the last 6 months;

Equity holders show a 495% increase with 312 million profits. EPS is Rs. 5.79.

On Assets side

- Loans and advances improved to 5.22 billion from 3,09 billlion. That's a 69% growth.
- Cash and bank balances improved to 387.7 million from 181.18 million. That's again 114% increase.

On Liabilities side
- Due to banks & other institutions increased to 4.74 billion from 2,563,278,338
billion. That's 85% increase.

Now NAV has improved to 22.25 from 16.47. This translate to 6 PBV where its really high for a financial institute.
However, we've seen this typical growth from COCR as well when the share price was around 15-20. Their PBV was over 3.0 and was a growing company.

- Customer Deposits improved to 629 million from 495 million. A 27% increase.
- Borrowings increased by 2.5% to 2.17 billion from 2.12 billion.

Micro business is tricky. Big companies have a difficulty in reaching rural areas as only daily collections would do the trick. Practically small players have the ability to carry out this "collection" task with area managers appointed.

Anyways, BLI's results are astonishing imo.. I hope the share price wont disappoint us.
There are 53.86 million Ordinary Shares. Shares would get doubled when the subdivided shares come to the market on 11th Nov - tomorrow.

Be ready..

[rameez]

The aftermath of the subdivision and the shock on seeing those Q3 figures should certainly drag down the price to around 55 which is still an overvalued price, unless we have yet another influencing performance by some of the investors as witnessed in the recent months.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

While appreciating the efforts of Small, Let me tell forum members,

be very careful and analyze yourself before buying...

My type is Long-term (if not life long) holding... So I will never enter when a share is too high...

Since I was a trader earlier and got enough profits by trading, I would just say timing matters in trading...

[smallvilleTop contributor]

Yes.. Both YK & Rameez are correct. BLI is over valued at CMP. I highlighted this above thru my PBV calculation.

However, if we thought about the same with COCR when it was at 20s (it was move than 3 PBV at that time) we would never even buy it.

And see how much COCR earned thru micro finance. The latter is a successful business but there are risks. As I said, daily collection would
keep the companies at the competitive edge or else they'll hve to write off some portion as impairment losses.

My opinion is; this is a DG's company and we all know what a Govt with more UNP biased could do to his empire.

So whoever said BLI is worth 100 or 200, buying above 70s is not guaranteed unless a run is witnessed.

[BullvsBear]

Dear Smallville & other experts,

Highly appreciate If you could publish an updated chart of BLI when the time permits...

Thanks