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LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

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LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:30 pm

Standard Oil of USA was identified as a threat for economy as it was a Monopoly. Monopolies, Duopolies are not tolerated by certain economists but investors prefer the same. LIOC performance is equal to many diversified conglomerates simply because its a duopoly.

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Last edited by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by slstock on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:37 pm

1) What is Y axis?

2) On Axis, is it random shares you picked or has ir some relation with LIOC

just curios ( as I saw plantations also there)


yellow knife wrote:Standard Oil of USA was identified as a threat for economy as it was a Monopoly. Monopolies, Duopolies are not tolerated by certain economists but investors prefer the same. LIOC performance is equal to many diversified conglomerates simply because its a duopoly.

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:39 pm

hi hi SLS dont rush

I also find it difficult to add my chart with too many info to get fit into the presentation...

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:42 pm

Ok.. I included plantations , hotels, conglomerates and LIOC just to show the revenue earned. LIOC being a single company is in par with diversified conglomerate in revenue-wise. That's because
1. Power of Energy sector
2. Power of duopoly

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:47 pm

Even though Revenue is maintained at a very high level , profit varied as the oil-price in Sri Lanka is controlled by state.

There were years company recorded 3 Billion gross profit and next loss. Continuous profit is hard to record as state controlled oil price.

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Last edited by yellow knife on Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:06 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : gross profit to replace profit)

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:56 pm

Net Profit after Tax and Gross Profit

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:02 pm

Company EPS was negative in three years and the rest in positives. Its profitability is depending upon government policy of oil price.

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:04 pm

LIOC share price movement has provided enough spread to get gain for traders

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:05 pm

Share price volatility is also shown with PE ratios

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:08 pm

ROCE of LIOC during last nine years

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:15 pm

Price volatility has made this company a gem for traders and had I developed this chart earlier I would not have selected LIOC for long term holding

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:39 pm

The impact of government intervention is heavily felt in this company than any other..

p. 21 of LIOC annual report 2015

" Between December and end March 2015 the company sustained a revenue loss of LKR 60 per every liter of petrol sold."

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:44 pm

Another reason for unexpected lower PAT for 2015 is listed in page 22

Meanwhile, with no road development  activities by the government during the latter part of the financial year , the demand for Bitumen was severely impacted, causing overall volumes  from this segment to contract by 44%.

However above mentioned two factors will not impact negatively for next year and bunkering business will be adding more revenue ..

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:50 pm

LIOC is expecting to expand the business with 40 more stations island wide and refurbishing 50 existing stations.

Exporting premium lubricants to Malaysia and Indonesia is in the process by selecting limited number of distributors.

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:52 pm

Gross Profit was negative in 2010 and 2009. Thus the company was selling fuel even at a loss and I think there are no such other companies that have to take such decisions..

201520142013201220112010200920082007
Revenue79,90181,79375,11160,43651,74350,21447,61744,17332,796
Gross profit4,7338,3125,8392,9541,526-371-4493,652929

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by pathfinder on Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:43 pm

Thanks YK,Depreciating rupee has a negative impact on the top of rising oil prices.
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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:43 pm

Declaration : Still LIOC is the lion's share in my PF


Source: Lanka C News..30th Sept 2015

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September 30, 2015 at 10:40 am | lanka C news

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ශ‍්‍රී ලංකාවේ වාර්ෂික පෙට්‍රොලියම් ඉල්ලූම ඉක්මවා යන තෙල් පිරිහදුවක් ඉන්දියානු රජය විසින් පාලනය කරනු ලබන ඉන්දියානු ඛනිජ තෙල් සංස්ථාව විසින් ශ‍්‍රී ලංකාව තුළ පිහිටුවීමට සුදානම් වන බව ඉන්දීය මාධ්‍ය වාර්තා කරයි.
මෙමගින් වසරකට ඛනිජ තෙල් ටොන් මිලියන 6ක් පිරිපහදු කිරීමට හැකිවනු ඇත.
මේ වන විට ශ‍්‍රී ලංකාව තුළ වසරකට ඛනිජ තෙල් ටොන් මිලියන 2.5ක ප‍්‍රමාණයේ පිරිපහදුවක් ඇති නමුත් පෙට්‍රෝලියම් නිපැයුම් සඳහා ඇති ඉල්ලූම එය මෙන් දෙගුණයකි.
මෙම ව්‍යපෘතියට අදාළ යෝජනාව ඉන්දීය ඛනිජ තෙල් අමාත්‍ය ධර්මේන්ද්‍ර ප‍්‍රධාන් සහ ලංකා අග‍්‍රාමාත්‍ය රනිල් වික‍්‍රමසිංහ අතර සාකච්ඡ කෙරී ඇතැයි පැවසේ.
IOC විසින් ලංකාවේ පිරිපහදුවක් ඉදිකිරීම පිළිබඳව යෝජනාව කලකට පෙර ගෙන ආ තිබුණද නව රජය සමග ආර්ථික සබඳතා තර කරගැනීමට නවදිල්ලියේ කැමැත්ත පළ වීම සමග එය ක‍්‍රියාත්මක තලයට පැමිණ තිබේ.
ලංකා IOC යන සමාගම් නාමයෙන් මේ වන විටත් ඉන්දියානු ඛනිජ තෙල් සංස්ථාව ලංකාව තුළ ඉන්ධන පිරවුම්හල් 179ක් ක‍්‍රියාත්මක කරයි.
රේගු බදු ඉහළ දැමීම හා සිල්ලර අලෙවි මිල අඩු කිරීම මගින් ලංකා IOC සමාගමේ ආදායම් වලට බරපතල හානි සිදුවී ඇති බවද ඇමති ප‍්‍රධාන් ලංකා අගමැති රනිල් වෙත පවසා තිබේ.
යෝජිත පිරිපහදුව ඉදිකළහොත් එය විදෙස් රටක එවැනි පළමු ෂධක්‍ ව්‍යාපෘතිය වනු ඇත.
මේ සඳහා ත‍්‍රිකුණාමලය ඉහළ චීන වරාය ප‍්‍රදේශය පිළිබඳව වික‍්‍රමසිංහ හා ප‍්‍රධාන් දෙදෙනා සිය හමුව තුළදී අවධානය යොමුකර ඇති අතර මේ සඳහා වෙත අක්කර 800ක පමණ ප‍්‍රදේශයක් අවශ්‍ය වනු ඇතැයි පැවසේ

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by DocStock on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:07 pm

Disclosure: I'm heavily weighed down by LIOC

I'm feeling conflicted here.
As a Sri Lankan I'm disappointed in the way they(Indians and LIOC) are pressurizing the Gov to give up a huge national asset(although unutilised for decades) for private sector enterprise. If only Gov had the money and more importantly the foresight and vision to develop this with the CPC, without looking at short term gains from side commissions and Indian assistance financially and politically.
On the other hand personally holding LIOC, this is something I am waiting for.
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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:13 pm

Doc Stock

I share the same feeling. But its natural when a country is expanding economically it need forced buyers. When England was producing excess it created colonies to forcibly buy their products.. So is Germany.. Followed by Japan..

Now after centuries its Indian turn.. They want to grow faster and now they cant official invade us but need our consent to do so.

Our nation gave the consent at the election.. so its happening..

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by HAL9000 on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:17 am

yellow knife wrote:Doc Stock

I share the same feeling. But its natural when a country is expanding economically it need forced buyers. When England was producing excess it created colonies to forcibly buy their products.. So is Germany.. Followed by Japan..

Now after centuries its Indian turn.. They want to grow faster and now they cant official invade us but need our consent to do so.

Our nation gave the consent at the election.. so its happening..
Good explanation, but how about Chinaese role. They engaged in investing here purely for friendship ? Or Do you interpret that in a similar way as above, especially when the previous regime gave a portion of free hold land in the port city to the Chinese firm which lies infront of a new Colombo South port where chinese hold more than 80 % share holding. In that way, can we interprst it as 2010 voters giving consent for Chinese "Consented invasion" ? Curious to know your views as a person who reads a lot.
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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by malanp on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:09 pm

Indian Oil company is no good for sri lanka. slowly they are trying to grab the economic power, then the political influence..

Keep away from India,, better for Sri Lanka..

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by WasteofTime on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:16 pm

Malaysia has  increased the fuel price today. Will Sri lanka increase ?
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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by slstock on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:28 pm

Hmm LIOC is at a tricky stage.


Positively their bunkering business is buffering the fuel losses. That how they came out flat last quarter. They are looking at going to Malaysia also to expand ( maybe to add more safety .
But malaysia is highly competitve).

One would think that low oil prices benefit them. But one needs to look deeper.
It can or may not. It all depends on the nature of their Oil contract, durations and prices.

What I am saying is just because Oil is cheaper , it maybe not necessarily translate to big profit.

But bringing a fuel formula can help them to be better shock absorbed.


Before , myself and a few were warning heavily on LIOC from Rs 60 to be careful.
Then it crashed to Rs 30 quick.
Now bounced and stabilizing around Rs 40.

So I remove , the total negative outlook I had on LIOC and rather update to neutral look Very Happy

September results can say a lot how they managed the oil fluctuations. If they can earn eps of Rs 1.5- 2 then one can revisit to analyze LIOC future more.

We should not be too enthusiastic or over negative right now.


DocStock wrote:Disclosure: I'm heavily weighed down by LIOC

I'm feeling conflicted here.
As a Sri Lankan I'm disappointed in the way they(Indians and LIOC) are pressurizing the Gov to give up a huge national asset(although unutilised for decades) for private sector enterprise. If only Gov had the money and more importantly the foresight and vision to develop this with the CPC, without looking at short term gains from side commissions and Indian assistance financially and politically.
On the other hand personally holding LIOC, this is something I am waiting for.


Last edited by slstock on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by Defender on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:40 pm

Yeah. I also not for Indian taking over! but yes what about chineese one? More reliable than indian? We have given in to them so much last years? was more safe? I dont think so.
Positive side: Turn arround the ceypetco company
Negative side; Will be giving into indian.
just concerned citizen

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Re: LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:38 pm

HAL9000 wrote:
yellow knife wrote:Doc Stock

I share the same feeling. But its natural when a country is expanding economically it need forced buyers. When England was producing excess it created colonies to forcibly buy their products.. So is Germany.. Followed by Japan..

Now after centuries its Indian turn.. They want to grow faster and now they cant official invade us but need our consent to do so.

Our nation gave the consent at the election.. so its happening..
Good explanation,  but how about Chinaese role. They engaged in investing here purely for friendship ? Or Do you interpret that in a similar way as above, especially when the previous regime gave a portion of free hold land in  the port city to the Chinese firm which lies infront of a new Colombo South  port where chinese hold more than 80 % share holding. In that way,  can we interprst it as 2010 voters giving consent for Chinese "Consented invasion" ?  Curious to know your views as a person who reads a lot.


India and China were the great economics for many years..Its only during last few centuries Europe and America robbed lime light.

Chinese were the biggest diaspora everywhere since known days.

Chinese once captured a Sri Lankan king. In historical Sinhala books it says Jeevgrahayen Ragena Giya or taken alive. But they never took the control of Sri Lanka nor did they appointed a puppet of their own.

If you read David Graebers " Debt" it says China won hearts of small nations emperors with a rain of gifts..

Now China is industrialized .. they dont capture us.. They need big markets.. That is why they sell to US. US is the biggest buyer and China is the biggest seller. China do not invade the big buyer to forcibly sell .. but the big buyer is not interested in Indian products.



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