Sell If Rajapaksa’s Party Wins

[BackstageTop contributor]

Sri Lanka Election Day Guide: Sell If Rajapaksa’s Party Wins
Anusha Ondaatjie
August 14, 2015 — 12:00 AM IST
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/sri-lanka-election-day-guide-sell-if-rajapaksa-s-party-wins

For financial investors, the bet on Sri Lanka’s election is simple: Sell if former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s party wins.

The parliamentary vote on Aug. 17 will be the first test at the polls since President Maithripala Sirisena defeated Rajapaksa in January to end his 10-year rule. Now Sirisena needs his allies to win control of parliament to ensure stability on the island nation best known for its beach resorts.

Rajapaksa, 69, is doing everything he can to spoil the party. He wants to make a comeback and replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, a scenario that may bring more strife to a nation that ended a bloody civil war in 2009.

A win for the current ruling coalition “will be taken positively by investors as that will mean continuance of the existing policies,” said Saurav Anand, South Asia economist at Standard Chartered Plc. A majority for Rajapaksa’s party, however, may lead to a “further period of policy uncertainty.”

Political stability and soaring economic growth under Rajapaksa put Sri Lanka on the radar screen of global investors. The island’s benchmark stock index is among the top 10 best performers globally over the past decade when measured in total U.S. dollar returns.

But resentment built among the public over moves seen to consolidate Rajapaksa’s power, enrich his family and shift the country under China’s orbit. The frustration boiled over last year, when Sirisena split with Rajapaksa and went on to defeat him in a presidential vote.
Foreigners Sell

Upon taking power, Sirisena pledged to rollback Rajapaksa’s measures to enhance the president’s power. He reinstalled a two-term limit and diluted the head of state’s influence over the judiciary, military and bureaucracy. He also implemented a more balanced foreign policy.

Sirisena failed, however, to pass a constitutional amendment that would overhaul the voting system to make it more representative, prompting him to dissolve parliament in June almost a year before its term expired.

The uncertainty since Sirisena’s win has affected perceptions of Sri Lanka. Overseas investors have sold a net $5.3 million of Colombo-listed shares in the year to Aug. 12, compared with net foreign purchases of $159 million in 2014 and $165 million the previous year.

The split between Sirisena and Rajapaksa divided their Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which leads an alliance that controlled about two-thirds of the 225-member parliament. Some Sirisena allies jumped to Wickremesinghe’s United National Party.
Stock Gains

On Monday, the vote will largely be split between the Wickremesinghe-led bloc and a coalition headed by Rajapaksa. While few opinion polls are reliable, an island-wide survey by the Colombo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives this month showed about 40 percent backing Wickremesinghe for prime minister, with 28 percent supporting Rajapaksa.

Rajapaksa’s camp rejects assertions that a victory for him would lead to instability. The former president said last month that he wants to help boost growth and restart projects suspended by the Sirisena administration, including a Chinese-funded $1.4 billion port city, the largest foreign funded project on record.

“All people of this country can work with Mahinda Rajapaksa, including President Sirisena,” Manusha Nanayakkara, a spokesman for Rajapaksa, said by phone. “They have worked together for nearly 30 years”

Expectations of a win for the incumbent parties have helped boost the Colombo All-Share Index. It’s risen 10 percent since hitting a 2015 low in March, and is up 2 percent this year. The rupee has depreciated about 2 percent in the year to 134 to the dollar.

A surprise win for Rajapaksa’s coalition, on the other hand, would set up a direct clash with Sirisena. The president has said that he won’t appoint his top foe as prime minister.

“The office would likely go to a different figure while Rajapaksa would hold most of the power, setting up continual clashes with Sirisena,” said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, Asia Associate at Eurasia Group. “Sri Lanka would face years of highly unstable governance.”

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

Ayyo why these Suddas telling these things about Appachchi.

Don't they know about Appachchi's vashi boley and the love Appachci's followers have for this boley.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

buy when others are selling if price is undervalued
Sell if others are buying if price is over valued..

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

buy when others are selling if price is undervalued
Sell if others are buying if price is over valued..

How the power of Appachchi? CBK paan 3.50 dunna, Percy ASPI 3,500 dey.

buy when others are selling if price is undervalued= In an uncertain mess of a Percy MY3 battle prices will remain undervalued till 2020. Percy's greed for power and his attempt to save his family risks destabilizing the country. Very unpatriotic of Percy.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Sri Lanka became a sovereign state only after May 2009.. Till then its government could not control the entire country in my life time.. A chit of JVP could close shops.. continuous power cuts.. a bomb could destroy the economy by hitting CBSL, Katunayaka, Telecom any place..

Hotel sector never paid dividends... Now we dont want that era back...

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

... Now we dont want that era back...

Installing a racist thug with a gun is one option but a better cleaner option is for you Southern shoeshine boys to reduce your inbuilt racism and treat the tamils and mohommedans the same way you expect to be treated.

Racists (wherever they live) will get the leaders they deserve, let's see what shoehine land gets on the 18th.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

I am a daily reader of three tamil newspapers...thinakkural...veeralesari ... and sudar oli...

So I clearly understand what ethnocentric

Ethnocentrism is judging another culture solely by the values and standards of one's own culture. Ethnocentric individuals judge other groups relative to their own ethnic group or culture, especially with concern for language, behavior, customs, and religion

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

The so-called Tamil issue is no an ethnic issue but an economic issue painted with ethnic paint to get more attention and funds.

Did people who come to city (Colombo & suburbs) from South (and survived and run many things so successfully) has ever asked for a separate state for the south?

The south was more neglected (schools / hospitals and other facilities) compared to north during the British Rajs time and even after the independence.

And next to the very point that installing a guy who uses racism card to win again will not take us anywhere either.

If he and his crooks could not do it in the last 10 years, do you think that any sensible man will believe than he could do now sitting on a back bench.

[Market loverTop contributor]

Agree with kith

[poor boyActive Member]

No matter who wins market will not crash after the election if all the elected members and the president act according to the constitution. but any third class coup type acts may cause lot of damage.
hope all the leaders would work straight forward manner.

if Ranil wins all the stocks will move up ,ASI 8000.
if MR wins MARKET will move because of JKH and construction stocks.
JKH would hit 250 withn days.

[malanp]

whoever wins, the CSE will go down and go up as usual..

sell high and buy low..

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

The latest prediction is that the GREENs will get over 140 seats and so we can see 8000 mark soon.

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

The latest prediction is that the GREENs will get over 140 seats and so we can see 8000 mark soon.

Ayyo ay Appachchita mehema wada denne? Very unpatriotic. Lot of Vashi Boley squeezing will be done over the weekend.

[yellow knifeTop contributor]

Today the man who saved Muslims from LTTE and the man who saved tamil children from cyanide capsule is termed as racist by who allowed that to happen and kept their eyes closed..

Today tamil children are learning in a peaceful environment.. AL best results for Maths is by a Tamil Student.. This is the country we want..

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

Today the man who saved Muslims from LTTE and the man who saved tamil children from cyanide capsule is termed as racist by who allowed that to happen and kept their eyes closed..

The man who keeps a gun pointed to the heads of the Northern tamils is called a racist. The man who allows mohommedan ruggerites to be lifted in white vans and tortured by family members because they were cuckolded is called a racist. The man who allows mohommedan homes to be burned by saffron mullahs backed by certain other family members is called a racist.

The man who steals the countries money and indebts it to enrich family members is called a thief.
The man who protects drug dealers because they are buddies with other family members is called a thug.
The man who gives up two years of a presidency because he believes in Vashi Bola is called a stupid fool.
The man who loses to a serial loser like Ponil is called a what?

The country has got the best possible use out of a thief and a racist by getting him to stop the war now that the thief's job is done time to flush him like a condom. No need to keep him and his family around to steal, kill and destabilize any more.

[Future123Active Member]

UNP is likely to win and MS would never allow MR to become the PM and MS would try his best to defeat UPFA to give the PM post to Ranil.

I'm not interested in any politics and not worried who is going to win since all the politicians will rob us any way but my concern is when UNP comes to power they will reimpose Super gain taxes.

When Super gain taxes are implemented the market will crash and ASPI will be below 6500 points. Further, UNP is likely to introduce taxes which would affect the market adversely like capital gain taxes and UNP might increase the government levy on share transaction since UNP government is finding it difficult to meet day-to-day expenses.

In summary, a UNP government would enforce following taxes which would crash CSE.
1) Super gain taxes
2) Capital gain taxes
3) Increase share transaction levy

[HAL9000Top contributor]

UNP is likely to win and MS would never allow MR to become the PM and MS would try his best to defeat UPFA to give the PM post to Ranil.

I'm not interested in any politics and not worried who is going to win since all the politicians will rob us any way but my concern is when UNP comes to power they will reimpose Super gain taxes.

When Super gain taxes are implemented the market will crash and ASPI will be below 6500 points. Further, UNP is likely to introduce taxes which would affect the market adversely like capital gain taxes and UNP might increase the government levy on share transaction since UNP government is finding it difficult to meet day-to-day expenses.

In summary, a UNP government would enforce following taxes which would crash CSE.
1) Super gain taxes
2) Capital gain taxes
3) Increase share transaction levy

Thanks for the kind reminder.

[jiggysaurusTop contributor]

Ayyo then this Future fellow better sell his portfolio and move to the madamulana stock exchange.

Be patriotic future123 sell your PF. What investing for shoehine boys without Appachchi.

[කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor]

These are just speculation only.
Hybrid tax has not shown any negative effects, looking at the Car registration data.
Once they have the majority, they have more time to think and I am sure we will see 8000 soon.

In summary, a UNP government would enforce following taxes which would crash CSE.
1) Super gain taxes
2) Capital gain taxes
3) Increase share transaction levy

[guruji]

Good luck for you all keep going

[Future123Active Member]

These are just speculation only.
Hybrid tax has not shown any negative effects, looking at the Car registration data.
Once they have the majority, they have more time to think and I am sure we will see 8000 soon.

In summary, a UNP government would enforce following taxes which would crash CSE.
1) Super gain taxes
2) Capital gain taxes
3) Increase share transaction levy

Friends, please don't drag me to this again and again. I don't want to discuss about politics anymore. The above was only my personal view. Politics has a big impact on the share market and that's why I expressed this. I'm hurt when everyone criticize me.

As a strategy, I don't buy any shares of companies which make profit over Rs. 2 billion as they get caught to super gain tax. Only one share I hold will be getting caught to this (LFIN) through holding company profits. (VONE).

In my view, the finance, poultry and garments will have a superb future ahead under a UNP government and I'm totally geared up. I avoid Blue chips making over Rs. 2 billion profit, import companies due to currency depreciation and construction related companies.

This is only my personal view and others may have a totally different view. It's my right to have my own view and I respect others views and I never criticized or hurt anyone for having their own views. It's a fundamental human right to have your own view.